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Bitcoin, Gold Could Benefit From Rising Geopolitical Tension and U.S. Election: JPMorgan

Geopolitical risk and the upcoming U.S. election are likely to reinforce the ‘debasement trade,’ to the benefit of both bitcoin and gold, the report said.

Geopolitical tension and the upcoming U.S. presidential election will likely underpin the ‘debasement trade,’ and this favors both bitcoin (BTC) and gold, JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report on Wednesday.

“A Trump win in particular, apart from being supportive of bitcoin from a regulatory point of view, would likely reinforce the ‘debasement trade’ both via tariffs (geopolitical tensions) and via an expansionary fiscal policy (‘debt debasement’),” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.

Markets aren’t pricing in a victory for the former president just yet. The chances of a Trump election win are currently priced in with a low probability looking at other asset classes other than gold and bitcoin, the report said, adding that this is because investors have been preoccupied with the recession trade in recent months.

If the “Trump trade” plays out in a similar way to 2016, there should be higher U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, U.S. stock market outperformance, in particular banks, and tighter credit spreads, JPMorgan said. This shift has not happened yet, with only a small move higher seen in these markets.

JPMorgan noted that in the six month window around the 2016 American election, 5-year Treasury yields rose 1%, the Dollar Index (DXY) surged 8%, U.S. equities outperformed to the tune of 6%, banks beat the rest of of S&P 500 stock index by 15% and high grade corporate credit spreads tightened significantly.

Bitcoin is not a safe haven against geopolitical risks, investment bank Standard Chartered said in a report yesterday.

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Bitcoin ETFs Register Net Outflows for Third Straight Day

Both bitcoin and ether spot ETFs bleed money as geopolitical tensions weigh over risk assets.

The U.S.-listed bitcoin (BTC) and ether {ETH}} spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are doing their part in contributing to the downward price pressures of crypto this week, with bitcoin down 6% and ether down 10%.

Investors drained $54.2 million from bitcoin ETFs on Oct. 3, the third consecutive day of net outflows, taking the three-day tally to $361.2 million, according to Farside Investors.

The main contributions on Thursday were Ark’s ARKB, at $58.0 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC, at $37.2 million. BlackRock’s IBIT saw an inflow of $36.0 million. Grayscale’s GBTC remains relatively muted, with just $5.9 million in outflows this week.

That said, the 11 ETFs have amassed a total of $18.5 billion in investor money since inception. Besides, investors are up on average on their investment around 3-10% with an average deposit cost basis between $54,911 and $59,120, according to Glassnode data.

The methodology used by Glassnode uses price stamping of bitcoin deposits to ETFs for the top three ETF issuers, which provides a rough break-even point for ETF investors. The data suggests, investors in Fidelity’s FBTC has a cost basis of $54,911, Grayscale at $55,943, and BlackRock $59,120.

In 2024, these cost basis have provided excellent price support for bitcoin, testing the lower bound multiple times during bull market corrections.

At the same time, ether ETFs experienced a net outflow of $3.2 million Thursday. Outflows came from Grayscale’s ETHE of $14.7 million, which has now seen a total of $2.9 billion in withdrawals. BlackRock ETHA saw a $12.1 million inflow. Ether ETFs now have a total outflow of $555.4 million, according to Farside Investors data.

Still, the performance of BTC and ETH ETFs is impressive compared to industry standards, according to Nate Geraci, President of the ETF store.

“Out of 525 ETFs launched in 2024, 13 of the top 25 are either bitcoin or ether related,” Geraci said.

As of press time, bitcoin was trading at $61,608, while ether was changing hands at $2,391, according to CoinDesk data.

Attention Bitcoin Bulls, China Stimulus May Have Lost Its Mojo

According to BCA Research, generating large bullish “credit impulses” is now a tough task for China.

China has recently unveiled a raft of stimulus measures, the biggest since 2008, torching a rally in Chinese stocks and risk assets worldwide, including bitcoin. Most crypto analysts expect the Chinese stimulus and the Fed rate cuts to power bitcoin (BTC) to $100,000 in the coming months.

However, BCA Research argues the risk-on rally may not have legs as China’s latest stimulus falls short of generating significant bullish “credit impulses” as it did in the past two decades, including in 2015.

Credit impulse refers to the flow of new credit issued through loans and other debt instruments as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). Since the 2008 crash, analysts have closely tracked China’s credit impulse as a leading indicator of economic growth and risk-on rally worldwide. Renewed upswings in the indicator have historically coincided with bitcoin bear market bottoms.

The credit impulse peaked at 15.5 trillion yuan during the last major bullish easing cycle dated 2015, equating to 15% of the GDP. Back then, the Chinese stocks, represented by the CSI 300, more than doubled in six months and BTC found a bottom near $100, turning higher for a two-year bull run that peaked near $20,000 in December 2017.

Since then, China’s economy has doubled in terms of nominal GDP, which means the credit impulse during the current cycle needs to peak at 27 trillion yuan to have a similar bullish impact on the economy and markets.

However, the most recent peak in the credit impulse was less than 5 trillion yuan. So, to match the 2015 episode, the latest measures would “need an amplitude five times greater than the most recent peak,” BCA Research said in a note to clients on Oct. 2.

Reversing the downtrend in the credit impulse might be easier said than done because factors that drove it higher initially, such as the housing market boom, are no longer present.

“Through 2000-2020, when China’s housing boom was in full swing, it was possible to channel the exponential credit curve into the housing and construction boom, But now, absent an alternative destination for the productive use of credit of the same magnitude, it will be difficult to generate those same monster credit impulses,” BCA’s analysts said.

First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Bounces From $60K

The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Oct. 4, 2024.

This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.

Latest Prices

CoinDesk 20 Index: 1,8691.17 +1.14% Bitcoin (BTC): $61,425.69 +0.92% Ether (ETH): $2,381.70 +0.9% S&P 500: 5,699.94 -0.17% Gold: $2,659.14 +0.13% Nikkei 225: 38,635.62 +0.22%

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Bitcoin’s slow start to its historically most bullish month continued late Thursday with a brief dip below $60,000 only to show signs of a rally ahead of the weekend. The cryptocurrency traded at around $61,300 during the European morning, an increase of just under 1% in the last 24 hours. The broader digital asset market has risen by about 1.15%, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index. BTC is down around 6% since the start of October and bitcoin ETFs have registered net outflows on all three days of the month so far. This is despite its reputation as being BTC’s most bullish month, with average gains of 22% since 2013.

Despite October’s reputation for being a fertile month for BTC surges, data shows that most gains don’t arrive until the second half of the month. The second and third days of October have ended in green just six times since 2013 before recovering in the second week, and large movements are generally in the third week, CoinGlass data show. Price jumps of as high as 16% generally appear after Oct. 15. However, this year bitcoin bulls must also consider the macroeconomic factors weighing on risk assets. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have seen investor sentiment shift toward oil and gold.

Geopolitical tension and the upcoming U.S. presidential election will likely underpin the ‘debasement trade,’ and this favors both bitcoin and gold, JPMorgan said in a research report on Wednesday. “A Trump win in particular, apart from being supportive of bitcoin from a regulatory point of view, would likely reinforce the ‘debasement trade’ both via tariffs (geopolitical tensions) and via an expansionary fiscal policy (‘debt debasement’),” analysts wrote. If the “Trump trade” plays out in a similar way to 2016, there should be higher U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, U.S. stock market outperformance, in particular banks, and tighter credit spreads, JPMorgan said. This shift has not happened yet, with only a small move higher seen in these markets.

Chart of the Day

– Omkar Godbole

U.S. Added Blowout 254K Jobs in September, Unemployment Rate Dips to 4.1%

The news seems likely to further cement ideas that the Fed will trim rates just 25 basis points at its next policy meeting in November.

The employment picture in the U.S. heated up in September, with the government reporting the addition of 254,000 jobs last month, flying past economist estimates for just 140,000. In addition, August’s previously reported 142,000 job gain was revised higher to 159,000.

The unemployment rate slid to 4.1% from 4.2% in August and versus forecasts for 4.2%.

Bitcoin (BTC) was changing hands at $61,500 in volatile action shortly following the release of the report, up nearly 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Prices remain sharply lower from week-ago levels above $66,000 as an overbought market over the past five days got hit with some unwelcome macro news, including an escalation of the war in the Middle East.

“A robust U.S. economy reduces uncertainty, particularly with the upcoming U.S. election, and this bodes well for bitcoin, removing one of the key risks looming over the market,” said CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten.

Checking other report details, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in September, beating forecasts for 0.3% and down from 0.5% a month earlier. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings were higher by 4.0% versus estimates for 3.8% and August’s 3.9%.

Recent economic data – including yesterday’s ISM Services report and Wednesday’s ADP jobs data, both of which came in far stronger than expected – along with comments earlier this week from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have led traders to pare back expectations for a second consecutive Fed 50 basis point rate cut at the bank’s next policy meeting just after the November elections.

Prior to this morning’s numbers, short-term rate markets had priced only a 30% chance of a 50 basis point move and a 70% chance of just a 25 basis point cut, according to CME FedWatch. In the minutes after the data, those 50 basis point odds had tumbled to just 11%.

Looking at traditional markets following the strong report, U.S. stock index futures have added to gains, with the Nasdaq 100 now higher by 0.8%. The U.S. 10-year yield has shot higher by eight basis points to 3.94% and the dollar index has jumped by a sizable 0.5%. The price of gold has dipped 0.5% to $2,665 per ounce.

Coinbase to Delist Unauthorized Stablecoins in EU by December

Tether, which is the largest issuer of stablecoins, has not managed to snag the necessary e-money license yet in the European Union.

Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) plans to de-list any unauthorized stablecoins in the European Union by December to comply with the EU’s Markets in Crypto Assets rules (MiCA).

“Given our commitment to compliance, we intend to restrict the provision of services to EEA [European Economic Area] users in connection with stablecoins that do not meet the MiCA requirements by December 30, 2024,” Coinbase said in a statement shared with CoinDesk on Friday.

Coinbase, the second biggest exchange, after Bybit, according to CoinGecko data, has been racing alongside other companies to become compliant with the European Union’s MiCA rules which require firms to be authorized in at least one EU country. Rules for stablecoins came into force on June 30, which require stablecoin issuers to have an e-money license in an EU member state to be able to operate in the bloc of 27 nations.

Not all stablecoins have managed to get the necessary licenses in the EU. In July Circle became the first global stablecoin issuer to secure an Electronic Money Institution license in the region and is the second-largest issuer of stablecoins. Tether, which is the largest issuer of stablecoins, has not managed to snag an e-money license in the EU.

Tether didn’t immediately respond to request for comments.

Coinbase plans to share further details of its plan in November, and will provide options for affected European Economic areas customers to switch to stablecoins issued by appropriately authorized issuers, such as Circles’ USDC and EURC, it said in the statement.

Bloomberg was first to report the news about Coinbase’s move.

Australia’s Police Confiscates Crypto Worth $6.4M in Crackdown on ‘Ghost’ Messaging App

Operation Kraken has nothing to do with the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, the company said.

Australia’s police has confiscated $6.4 million in cryptocurrency as part of a global crackdown on Ghost, an encrypted communications network, authorities allege was “built solely for the criminal underworld,” a statement said.

The seizure of the cryptocurrency comes two weeks after the AFP arrested a Sydney resident Jay Je Yoon Jung, 32, the alleged mastermind behind Ghost. He appeared in a Sydney court on Wednesday to face the charges. Another man who allegedly distributed the app has also been arrested.

The seized crypto has been transferred into secure AFP cryptocurrency storage and the authorities will seek its permanent forfeiture.

The effort is titled Operation Kraken but Kraken the cryptocurrency exchange “has not been the subject of any Operation Kraken investigations,” an AFP spokesperson wrote in an email to CoinDesk. “Operation Kraken was an investigation into a dedicated encrypted communications platform.”

A Kraken spokesperson said, “We’re disappointed by this operation’s codename, which has absolutely nothing to do with our brand.”

The crackdown last month saw 700 AFP members execute 93 search warrants, arresting 46 people, intervening in 50 threats to life, and seizing 30 illicit weapons and 200 kg of illicit drugs, the AFP said.

Robinhood Introduces Crypto Transfers in Europe as It Doubles Down on Expansion

The trading app will let customers deposit and withdraw over 20 cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, ether, solana and USD coin.

Robinhood (HOOD) customers in the European Union can now transfer more than 20 cryptocurrencies, including include bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), solana (SOL) and USD coin (USDC), in and out of the trading app.

The California-based company is expanding its offerings as the bloc’s crypto laws known as Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) come into effect.

“With the launch of crypto transfers in Europe, we’re making self-custody and entering DeFi simpler and more accessible for our customers,” Johann Kerbrat, VP and general manger of Robinhood Crypto, said in a statement. “Support for deposits and withdrawals gives customers more control over their crypto, while ensuring they have the same safe, low-cost, and reliable experience they expect from Robinhood.”

The new capability comes 10 months after the trading app started letting customers in the EU trade crypto, saying the region has one of the world’s most comprehensive policies for crypto asset regulation.

In March, the company fully rolled out its brokerage operations in the U.K. It began to onboard customers in the non-EU country a year ago after an earlier attempt failed due to a shift of focus during the Covid pandemic.

Many U.S.-based crypto exchanges have doubled down their operations in Europe after the advent of MiCA, which will come into effect this year. Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. exchange, is looking to offer derivatives in the European Union, it announced in January, while Kraken recently acquired a German crypto service provider to expand its footprint in the region.

Diddy Hires Sam Bankman-Fried’s (New) Lawyer

The unlikely pair already share a cell. Now they share a lawyer.

Sean “Diddy” Combs has hired Sam Bankman-Fried’s lawyer, Alexandra Shapiro, to appeal a New York judge’s decision to keep him locked up while he awaits trial for racketeering and sex trafficking charges.

Bankman-Fried, who was sentenced to 25 years in prison in March for the collapse of his crypto exchange, FTX, hired Shapiro to handle his appeal shortly after his conviction. Last month, she filed a 102-page appeal in the Second Circuit, requesting a new trial for Bankman-Fried and accusing the judge overseeing his case of being unfairly biased against him.

Lawyers interviewed by CoinDesk are largely skeptical of the appeal’s chance of success.

The fraudster is currently six months into his sentence, and has chosen to remain in Brooklyn’s notoriously dangerous Metropolitan Detention Center (MDC) while he awaits the outcome of his appeal, rather than be moved to a low-security prison near his family in California.

The unlikely result of Bankman-Fried’s decision to stay in MDC is that he’s now roommates with Diddy. According to a recent report from the New York Times citing sources familiar, Bankman-Fried and the rapper are both living in the same unit of the jail, sleeping in a “dormitory-style room” with other inmates.

On Sep. 12, New York prosecutors charged Diddy with racketeering conspiracy, sex trafficking of children by force, fraud or coercion and transporting for prostitution.

The sex trafficking charge alone carries a maximum sentence of life in prison, with minimum sentences of 10-15 years depending on the ages of the victims. The racketeering conspiracy charge and the transportation for prostitution charge carry maximum sentences of 20 and 25 years in prison, respectively.

Bitwise Takes a Step Toward XRP ETF

Ripple’s XRP barely budged after the Delaware filing was confirmed.

Crypto native asset manager Bitwise is moving toward creating an exchange-traded fund tracking (XRP), the token closely associated with crypto company Ripple.

The firm registered a trust entity in the state of Delaware on Tuesday, which appeared on the state’s Division of Corporations website. Registering a trust entity is a first step toward filing to list and trade shares of an ETF; companies like Bitwise, Blackrock and Fidelity all filed trust entities for bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum’s ether (ETH) ahead of filing for ETFs following those tokens.

A spokesperson for Bitwise confirmed that the filing was real.

“We can now confirm that this is both legitimate and from Bitwise,” the spokesperson said.

This isn’t the first time that rumors about a potential XRP ETF have circulated.

Similar filings, which later turned out to be illegitimate, have previously been uploaded to the website in an attempt to pump the token’s price.

In November, for example, a filing for an apparent BlackRock XRP ETF appeared on the website, which was later confirmed by the asset manager to be false.

Despite the news, XRP’s price has not fluctuated much Tuesday, though much of the broader market fell heavily over the past 24 hours.