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Bitcoin Could Surge Thanks to Looser Financial Conditions

A less-widely followed report from the Chicago Fed indicated the easiest conditions since November 2021.

The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) offers a weekly update on U.S. financial conditions across money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and shadow banking systems. The NFCI is a valuable tool for assessing the health of financial markets, providing insights into liquidity, credit availability, and market risk. The index is structured so that a negative NFCI value indicates looser-than-average financial conditions, suggesting an environment where liquidity is more readily available. Conversely, a positive value indicates tighter-than-average conditions, where access to capital becomes more restrictive.

For the week ending Sept. 13, the NFCI registered at -0.56, indicating that financial conditions eased even further from the already looser than average level of the previous week. This level of financial ease hasn’t been seen since November 2021, a period during which bitcoin (BTC) reached its 2021 cycle high of $69,000.

A noteworthy analysis on the relationship between the NFCI and bitcoin was recently shared by Fejau, host of the Forward Guidance Podcast. In an X thread, Fejau pointed out the negative correlation between the NFCI and bitcoin, arguing that looser financial conditions often act as a tailwind for risky assets. According to Fejau, when financial conditions loosen, easing increases, leading to a risk-on environment where speculative assets, including bitcoin, tend to rally.

Fejau’s analysis traces this negative correlation across several market cycles. In 2013, as financial conditions eased, bitcoin surged from around $100 in July to over $1,000 by November. This coincided with the NFCI index registering a low of around -0.80, indicating significantly looser than average financial conditions.

Similarly, in 2017-2018, the loosening of financial conditions coincided with bitcoin’s dramatic rise from $2,000 to $20,000 in just six months at the end of 2017. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, financial conditions tightened significantly—the most restrictive since 2009—leading to a crash in both traditional risk assets and bitcoin.

Most recently, Fejau notes that as financial conditions have loosened over the past twelve months, bitcoin has once again surged, climbing from $25,000 to over $73,000 in March 2024 even before global central banks started to cut interest rates. Which shows financial conditions have been loose for the past twelve months.

This relationship is not entirely straightforward, with other factors like the DXY index (a measure of the U.S. dollar’s strength) also influencing bitcoin’s trajectory. A rising DXY tends to have negative implications for bitcoin, as a stronger dollar makes speculative assets less attractive.

As financial conditions continue to ease, the outlook for bitcoin and other speculative investments could remain positive, provided other economic factors remain supportive.

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Bitcoin, Gold May Be Sensing Monetary Debasement as Records Beckon

With both assets leading the market, here’s a closer look at the factors driving their remarkable performance.

In the past five days, bitcoin (BTC) has surged 7%, breaking through $64,000 for the first time since Aug. 26. Gold, for its part, has reached all-time highs on over 30 occasions this year, topping $2,600 an ounce. These remarkable performances mark the first time since bitcoin’s inception in 2009 that both are the top-performing assets of the year, according to Charlie Bilello, the chief market strategist at Creative Planning, an investment management and financial planning firm.

Year-to-date, gold has risen 27%, surpassing its 2020 performance of 25%. The last time it did better was 2007. What is driving this impressive rise?

Gold has historically been seen as a hedge against monetary debasement and global uncertainty, and current economic conditions suggest it is again fulfilling this role. The recent surge in gold prices can be attributed to these factors. Notably, gold began its rally before the significant monetary debasement triggered by the Covid pandemic in 2020, while bitcoin emerged as a star performer in late 2020 and into 2021. With bitcoin now just 14% away from its all-time high, is it playing catch-up once again?

A closer examination reveals that bitcoin’s price tends to move in line with the Federal Reserve’s net liquidity metric. This measure, calculated by subtracting reverse repo and the Treasury General Account from the Fed’s balance sheet, indicates that bitcoin tends to follow liquidity trends.

Both bitcoin and net liquidity bottomed out toward the end of 2022, coinciding with the FTX collapse. Since then, bitcoin has steadily risen alongside an increase in net liquidity, which now exceeds $6 trillion.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is currently at $7.1 trillion, and although it is still engaging in quantitative tightening, the pace has slowed. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023 led to a $1.6 trillion reduction in the balance sheet, bringing it back to levels seen during the initial phases of quantitative easing in response to the pandemic.

The draining of reverse repo balances, now just over $300 billion, releases liquidity back into the financial system. This is stimulative, increasing the availability of funds for lending, investment, and overall economic activity.

Looking more broadly, the combined balance sheets of the world’s 15 largest central banks – including the U.S., European Union, Japan and China – approach $31 trillion.

While this number alone is not the focus, the trend shows a global resurgence in central bank balance sheets from about $30 trillion in July. This increase in liquidity is particularly stimulative for bitcoin, which tends to mirror liquidity trends.

Adding to this, just Wednesday the Fed cut the interest rate by 50 basis points, further supporting the rise of bitcoin and gold.

YouTube Page of India’s Supreme Court Hacked to Promote XRP

The channel streams hearings of notable court cases but temporarily showed promotional videos of XRP and Ripple Labs before being taken down.

The YouTube channel of India’s Supreme Court was compromised on Friday in a first such incident for the judicial body.

The channel, which otherwise streams court cases for viewers and the press, showed videos promoting XRP tokens. Its name was changed to “Ripple.live24.”

A blank video titled “Brad Garlinghouse: Ripple Responds To The SEC’s $2 Billion Fine! XRP PRICE PREDICTION” went live on the channel in the European morning hours. The video and the channel were taken down shortly afterward.

“This is to inform all concerned that the YouTube channel of Supreme Court of India has been taken down. The services on YouTube channel of Supreme Court of India will be resumed shortly,” the Supreme Court said in a statement shared with local media companies.

The compromise came ahead of several crucial cases scheduled for Friday, the Times of India reported.

MicroStrategy Boosts Bitcoin Holdings With $458M Purchase, Upsized Convertible Note Offering to $1B

With the latest acquisition, the company now holds 252,220 bitcoin worth nearly $16 billion at current prices.

Nasdaq-listed software company MicroStrategy (MSTR) said Friday that it purchased 7,420 bitcoin (BTC) for about $458.2 million using the proceeds of its debt offering. The acquisition happened between Sept. 13 and 19 at an average BTC price of approximately $61,750.

The company increased its convertible note issuance that concluded Thursday to $1.01 billion from the $700 million principal offering announced earlier this week, according to a Friday filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The company, led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, has been a pioneer for bitcoin adoption as a corporate treasury asset, and has become the largest corporate holder of BTC since it started buying in 2020. With the latest purchase, the firm now holds 252,220 bitcoin worth nearly $16 billion at current prices, acquiring at an average BTC price of $39,266 for a total cost of $9.9 billion.

MicroStrategy’s shares were down 1.5% from Thursday’s market closing price, with U.S. equity indices and BTC also sliding lower.

Other public companies such as Semler Scientific, miner Marathon Digital and Japanese investment adviser Metaplanet recently have followed MicroStrategy’s footprints to issue debt to accumulate BTC.

James van Straten contributed to the reporting.

Consensys Suit Against U.S. SEC Dismissed by Texas Court

The federal court dropped the lawsuit because its core argument was already resolved, though Consensys repeated assertions that the U.S. securities regulator is abusing its authority.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission had – for a time – added Consensys to a list of crypto investigation targets, prompting the technology incubator company to sue it for overreach in federal court. Because the regulator then shut down that Ethereum probe earlier this year, a Texas judge has decided the lack of immediate danger means the lawsuit is unwarranted.

Judge Reed O’Connor of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas noted in a Thursday filing that “because withholding consideration subjects plaintiff to scant, if any, hardship, the claim lacks a ripe case or controversy.” In other words, since there’s no clear future threat to Consensys, there’s no point in this judge weighing in.

“In a significant win for the industry, the SEC dropped its ‘Ethereum 2.0’ investigation after our litigation was filed, and the Texas court today recognized that the SEC already gave Consensys the relief it sought on that critical issue for the Ethereum ecosystem,” the company said in a post on X.

Consensys argued that its lawsuit “laid bare the overzealous investigation of Ethereum, and policymakers and the public at large voiced deep concern over the SEC’s investigation of blockchain software development.”

The SEC didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on the case being dismissed.

When Consensys sued the agency in April, it asked the court to declare that Ethereum’s ether (ETH) is not a security and that any investigation of ConsenSys based on the idea that the token is a security would trample on the company’s rights. It also contended that MetaMask is not a broker under federal law and that its staking service doesn’t violate securities law.

After backing down in the ETH investigation, the SEC did follow up with charges against Consensys later in June, alleging that the company’s MetaMask service was acting as an unregistered securities broker.

While the SEC hasn’t made a public statement about ETH’s status, last week, the regulator settled charges with eToro which let the trading platform continue listing ETH in the U.S.

Iggy Azalea to Release Online Casino Motherland in Boost for MOTHER Token

The online casino and gaming platform will be released in November.

SINGAPORE – Former Grammy-nominated artist and entrepreneur Iggy Azalea will release Motherland, a new online casino that uses her MOTHER token, in November.

Azalea unveiled the project alongside business partner Joe McCann, founder of crypto investment firm Asymmetric and manager Reece Pearson at her Motherland Rodeo event at Breakpoint in Singapore on Friday.

Motherland is slated to offer a variety of casino games — such as slots, blackjack, roulette, and poker — and players will enjoy live dealer games, tournaments and sports betting.

“Motherland is a digital homeland for the crypto community unlike any other,” said Azalea in a prepared statement. “This is all about merging culture and entertainment beyond hype cycles to create long-term value.”

“Motherland is a perfect example of how Iggy is taking the token beyond speculation and into real-world applications,” said McCann. “Memecoins are built on internet culture and the attention economy. No one does that better than Iggy — $MOTHER provides sustainable value creation by offering real utility,

MOTHER was one of the memecoins issued amid a short-lived celebrity token frenzy on the Solana blockchain in late May. Several such tokens have lost nearly all their value, but Azalea’s backing has helped buoy the token in the past few months.

In June, Azalea started to support the purchase of phones and monthly cell plans from his telecommunications company using mother tokens, boosting their value at the time.

Altcoins Surge Leaving Bitcoin and Ether Behind After Fed Cuts Interest Rate

The market cap of altcoins rose 5.7% after the central bank announced it would lower interest rates by 50 basis points. Bitcoin’s market cap rose only 4.4%.

Bitcoin (BTC) may have outperformed stocks in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates on Wednesday, but the true winners in the crypto universe are altcoins.

Total3, an index that tracks the market capitalization of the top 125 cryptocurrencies, excluding bitcoin and ether (ETH), was trading 5.68% higher since the central bank’s announcement that it would slash the Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points, according to data on TradingView. Bitcoin’s market cap, by contrast, rose only 4.4%.

This isn’t unusual, said Bob Wallden, head of trading at investment firm Abra.

“Altcoins are higher beta than bitcoin and ether, so think of them as a leveraged play on the broader crypto market similar to tech stocks outperforming the S&P 500 (SPX) in time of green shoots,” he said.

The asset class, which includes all crypto assets besides bitcoin and ether, might have also benefited from a recent period of overselling, which Wallden said is adding velocity to their bounce back.

The relatively low liquidity levels of altcoins means they tend to move with greater volatility, said Bohan Jiang, Head of OTC options trading at Abra.

“Altcoins are at the fringes of the liquidity spectrum, and so will always be convex in performance when risk assets perform well and liquidity is abundant, which seems to be the case post-FOMC,” he said.

“They also perform as a function of liquidity and positioning: liquidity in alts is substantially poorer, causing outsized moves both ways. Extended short positioning building up over the past few months can therefore cause short-squeeze-like outperformance higher.”

The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates pushed bitcoin above $64,000 on Thursday, a price last seen on Aug. 26. It later bounced back and is currently trading at $62,898.

Kris Sandor contributed to the story

MakerDAO Should Use Solana’s Code to Build Its New Blockchain, Co-Founder Says

Some community members have already pushed back against the idea.

MakerDAO co-founder Rune Christensen said Friday that the platform’s future native blockchain should be built using the codebase that underpins Solana (SOL), a network designed to provide high-speed performance.

In a governance forum post, he said the codebase’s “technical quality,” its “resilience by having gone through the FTX blowup” and already functioning examples make Solana “the most promising codebase to explore further.”

He also mentioned Cosmos as the other “main contender.”

MakerDAO is a largest decentralized finance lender and also the issuer of the $5 billion DAI stablecoin. It is currently undergoing a major, multi-year overhaul called Endgame that includes breaking up the project into smaller, independent entities (SubDAOs) with their own tokens and revamping its governance token MKR and stablecoin DAI.

The plan’s final phase would be the rollout of a bespoke blockchain – under the codename NewChain, for the time being – to connect all SubDAOs and ostensibly make the ecosystem more resilient to governance attacks and technical failures, Christensen explained in the post.

The NewChain is a “major long term project, and will likely take at least 3 years,” he said.

Maker’s endorsement would be a symbolic win for the embattled Solana ecosystem, badly wounded by the collapse of FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried’s downfall, who had been one of the network’s biggest supporters and investors.

“I am honestly speechless,” Anatoly Yakovenko, co-founder of Solana Labs, posted on X (formerly Twitter) following Christensen’s comments. “The more code reuse we have across all ecosystems the faster everything grows.”

Some community members, however, already pushed back against Christensen’s idea, requesting more information about his research or pitching other solutions.

“Solana and Cosmos are the only options? What about an EVM-based rollup?,” prominent crypto researcher Hasu replied to the forum post.

“If Coinbase can deploy its own chain on a layer 2 (BASE), why not Maker?,” long-time community member Tosh9.0 asked.

Large Bitcoin Holders Accumulate $1.5B Worth of BTC as Price Wavers

The accumulation suggests optimism among large investors, IntoTheBlock’s head of research noted.

Large bitcoin (BTC) investors – “whales” in crypto terms – seemed undeterred by the recent weakness in price and substantially increased their holdings.

Data by crypto analytics firm IntoTheBlock shows that addresses holding at least 0.1% of the bitcoin supply – worth more than $500 million – increased their stash by a total of $1.5 billion in the last two weeks of August.

The increase occurred while inflows into centralized exchanges were near zero, suggesting that “there is organic buying demand rather than just funds moving to exchange addresses,” Lucas Outumuro, head of research at IntoTheBlock, wrote in a report.

Whales are entities who control large amounts of a digital asset. Their purchases and sales can have a sizable impact on markets, thus crypto watchers closely follow their behavior to anticipate market movements.The purchases happened during a period when BTC’s price sunk to a two-month low, temporarily lifted by an important court decision in Grayscale’s campaign to list a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the U.S.

Large holders first loaded up after Aug. 17, when BTC plunged more than 10% to below $26,000, its lowest price since June, IntoTheBlock data shows.

They also increased holdings earlier this week following asset manager Grayscale’s court victory over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). A federal appeals court ordered the agency to vacate and review its denial to convert the $14 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a more-desirable spot bitcoin ETF.

Analysts interpreted the court’s decision as a key advance towards listing the first spot BTC ETF in the U.S., making the largest cryptocurrency more accessible for a new class of investors.

BTC has erased all gains from the brief rally ignited by the Grayscale ruling and slid back below $26,000 on Friday.

Despite the weak price action, the accumulation suggests that “institutional investors are getting optimistic in Bitcoin as ETF decisions approach,” Outumuro said.

SEC Hasn’t Met Requirements to Argue for an Appeal, Ripple Says

Ripple opposed the SEC motion to try and appeal a federal judge’s ruling in its case against the crypto company from July.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hasn’t made enough of a case to warrant an appeals court intervention in its ongoing legal fight with Ripple, the crypto company argued in a new filing Friday.

The SEC is seeking a federal judge’s approval to appeal her ruling finding that Ripple’s programmatic sales of XRP did not violate securities law. If Judge Analisa Torres, of the Southern District of New York, signs off on the bid, the SEC will need to convince the Second Circuit Court of Appeals to take up the case. In its filing Friday, Ripple argued that there are no controlling law questions and that an appeal wouldn’t lead to a faster resolution of the overall case.

July’s ruling did not “present a controlling question of law,” and neither did the SEC’s motion for an appeal, Ripple said in Friday’s filing, which added that the regulator hasn’t proven that different judges might disagree with the ruling, or that an appeal would lead to a faster end for the court case – all of which are requirements for the judge to approve an appeal, according to the filing.

Judge Torres found in July that while Ripple violated federal securities laws in selling XRP to institutional investors, it had not done the same in making XRP available to retail investors by putting it on exchanges.

A different judge in the same court, Judge Jed Rakoff, disagreed with Judge Torres’ assessment in his own ruling in the SEC’s case against Terraform Labs, a point the regulator brought up when it filed the substantive part of its appeal on August 18.

In Friday’s filing, Ripple said the factual bases underlying each case were different, leading to the different rulings.

“This Court’s summary-judgment ruling relied on record evidence that Ripple made no ‘promises or offers’ to purchasers in Programmatic Sales,” the filing said. “Terraform, by contrast, accepted the SEC’s allegations that Terraform and its founder promised all purchasers – those who bought directly from Terraform or from some other source – ‘rates of returns of 19-20% on the coin owners’ initial investment.'”

The SEC has until September 8 to respond to today’s filing.