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First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Trades Flat While Other Major Cryptos Nurse Losses

The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Oct. 3, 2024.

This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.

Latest Prices

CoinDesk 20 Index: 1,868.26 -3.74% Bitcoin (BTC): $60,722.20 -0.88% Ether (ETH): $2,366.16 -3.13% S&P 500: 5,709.54 -0.01% Gold: $2,647.23 -0.49% Nikkei 225: 38,552.06 +1.97%

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Bitcoin was flat during the Asian and European mornings, trading about 0.8% lower in the last 24 hours at around $60,750. Iran’s air strikes on Israel, for which the latter has vowed to retaliate, continue to weigh on risk assets, such as bitcoin. Other major cryptos are nursing more significant losses than BTC with ether down over 4.5% at $2,350. The broader digital asset market as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index is around 4.2% lower. XRP is the worst affected, having dropped 11% after the SEC filed an appeal against the ruling in Ripple’s favor over their long-standing legal dispute.

Despite the generally negative direction in crypto prices, whales are continuing to accumulate bitcoin at unprecedented rates, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young-Ju said in an X post. Whales colloquially refer to influential entities that hold largest amounts of any asset – and on-chain data shows new bitcoin whales are making sizable purchases in anticipation of a bull run ahead. “Real whales move the market through spot trading and OTC markets,” he wrote. “That’s why on-chain data is crucial. The older whales haven’t seen particularly high returns, and the whales who entered in this recent bull run have barely made any profits.”

Tokyo-listed bitcoin holder Metaplanet Inc. is now using bitcoin options to boost its BTC stash. The company announced the sale of 223 contracts of bitcoin put options at the $62,000 strike with a maturity date of Dec. 27. The transaction involved Singapore-based QCP Capital as the counterparty and generated a premium of 23.972 BTC ($1.44 million). Metaplanet posted $13.826 million as margin collateral, with each contract offering a 0.1075 BTC premium, which Metaplanet received upfront. The transaction resulted in a nominal yield of 10.75% and an annualized yield of 45.63%. Metaplanet will use the premium received to purchase more bitcoin. The company’s total bitcoin holdings are worth around $32 million.

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CFTC Subcommittee Sends Up Recommendations for Letting Firms Use Tokenized Shares as Collateral: Bloomberg

BlackRock and Franklin Templeton could see tokenized shares of their money-market funds traded as collateral by the end of the year.

The likes of BlackRock and Franklin Templeton could see tokenized shares of their money-market funds pledged in trading after a major group under the aegis of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved guidelines for their use, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

A subcommittee of the CFTC’s Global Markets Advisory Committee voted to pass the recommendations on to the full committee, which is expected to vote on the recommendations later this year, the report said citing two people familiar with the matter.

The report did not reveal what the recommendations were but the mere action that they have been sent to the full committee could be seen as the next step.

The CFTC did not immediately respond to a CoinDesk request for comment.

BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) is an example of how creating blockchain-based tokens of traditional investments such as bonds and funds is a fast-growing use case for the larger digital asset space. The BUIDL fund became the largest tokenized Treasury fund just six weeks after its late launch in March. It surpassed $500 million market value in July.

The CFTC’s Global Markets Advisory Committee includes BlackRock and Bloomberg LP, parent of Bloomberg News, the report said.

Ripple Partners With Brazilian Exchange Mercado Bitcoin to Offer Business-Focused Payments Solution

Mercado Bitcoin plans to offer its corporate and retail customers support for international payments, allowing users to transact with Brazilian Reais.

Ripple, a provider of digital asset infrastructure, has partnered with leading Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin to offer businesses its managed end-to-end payments solution.

Mercado Bitcoin use Ripple’s service to improve its internal treasury operations between Brazil and Portugal, Ripple said in a statement. The aim is to offer its corporate and retail customers support for international payments, allowing users to transact with Brazilian Reais. The exchange will be the first customer of Ripple’s business-focused payment solution in the Latin American country.

“Ripple Payments offers unique capabilities that are important to crypto businesses enabling them to streamline operations, optimize liquidity, and ultimately improve margins through real-time payment settlement,” said Silvio Pegado, Ripple’s managing director for Latin America, in a statement.

Jordan Abud, head of banking at Mercado Bitcoin, said the partnership with Ripple “enables Mercado Bitcoin to take another step towards internationalizing its services.”

Brazil is familiar territory for Ripple. The company opened offices in the Latin American country in 2019 and introduced its crypto on-demand liquidity (ODL) service in Brazil in August 2022, in partnership with Travelex Bank.

In September, Ripple Labs CEO Brad Garlinghouse said that the company’s U.S.-dollar pegged stablecoin, Ripple USD (RLUSD), was close to issuance, detailing that “weeks, not months,” was an estimated release time.

RWA Platform Credbull Rolls Out Up to $500M Private Credit Fund with Fixed High Yield on Plume Network

Private credit, a booming market in traditional finance, is a fast-growing sector in the blockchain-based real-world asset sector as well with $9 billion of assets, data shows.

Decentralized private credit platform Credbull is rolling out a new fixed yield credit facility LiquidStone, with a capacity of up to $500 million, exclusively on the real-world asset (RWA) focused blockchain Plume Network, the protocols announced on Thursday.

In the first phase, the product debuts with a fixed 30-day 10% annualized yield with daily redemption features on assets and yield, with assets capped at $100 million at the beginning. The protocol plans a broader rollout in the first quarter of 2025, raising the maximum capacity to $500 million and offering a 90-day fixed yield of 15% annualized.

On top of the yield, both retail and institutional investors may earn rewards for participating in the Plume ecosystem. The underlying assets are diversified across on-chain “high quality liquid assets,” collateralized on-chain lending and high yield trade financing solutions underwritten by loan originators focusing on small and mid-size businesses.

Private credit has been one of the first frontiers of crypto’s RWA tokenization movement, a process that brings traditional financial instruments such as bonds, commodities and funds to blockchain rails in pursuit of efficiency, transparency and accessibility gains.

The blockchain-based private credit market currently stands at $9 billion, rwa.xyz data shows, dominated by fintech firm Figure’s home equity credit line service using the Provenance blockchain. That’s still tiny compared to the booming private credit market in traditional finance, which the IMF estimated to be worth over $2 trillion.

Credbull, led by MicKinsey alum Jason Dehni as CEO, is one of the newer entrants, aiming to broaden access to high-yield structured products using blockchain tech to cut costs. Its first fund debuted on Polygon this year and is regulated in the Bahamas. The company raised $5.2 million in August in a venture capital round led by GnosisVC.

Plume is an Ethereum-based layer-2 blockchain specializing on RWA finance, backed by Galaxy and Haun in a $10 million fundraising round earlier this year.

Relm Insurance Introduces BTC-Denominated Policy for Bitcoin Miners

The aim of the policy is to offer bitcoin miners with financial protection against losses from operational interruptions caused by physical damage to equipment or facilities

Bermuda-registered Relm Insurance has introduced a policy covering bitcoin miners’ for periods of business interruption.

BTC Business Interruption Insurance is denominated in bitcoin, the first such policy to do so, according to an emailed announcement on Thursday.

The aim of the policy is to offer bitcoin miners with financial protection against losses from operational interruptions caused by physical damage to equipment or facilities.

Bitcoin mining companies have faced headwinds in recent months relating to the block reward for producing new BTC being halved and bitcoin’s price being restrained by selling pressure and various geopolitical factors. These challenges could then be compounded by losing capacity to the wear and tear of their machines or outages related to power problems.

Relm is licensed to offer indemnification to bitcoin miners in the same currency that they are mining thanks to its Class Innovative Insurer General Business (IIGB) license from the Bermuda Monetary Authority.

Bitcoin Not a Safe Haven From Geopolitical Risks, But Still Buy the Dip: Standard Chartered

Risks stemming from the Middle East conflict are likely to push bitcoin below $60K before the weekend, the report said.

Geopolitical risk related to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will likely weigh on the bitcoin (BTC) price and push it below the $60,000 level before the weekend, still, the dip should be bought, investment bank Standard Chartered (STAN) said in emailed comments Thursday.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency is not a safe haven against geopolitical risks, the report said.

“Gold is a geopolitical hedge,” wrote Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, adding that “BTC is a hedge against TradFi issues such as bank collapses or de-dollarisation/U.S. Treasury issues.”

The bank noted that geopolitical concerns depressed the bitcoin price while at the same time increasing Donald Trump’s odds of winning the U.S. election in November, “which improves BTC’s post-election probabilities.”

Options market activity also supports this view, with open interest for the bitcoin December expiry at 80,000 jumping in recent days, the report noted.

Bitget Research echoed this positive sentiment. “Despite the general downturn, institutional investors continue to buy digital currency at a rate at par or higher than the quantity mined daily,” said Ryan Lee, chief analyst of Bitget Research, in emailed comments.

Bitcoin was trading around $60,500 at publication time, falling about 0.4% on the day, while broader crypto market index CoinDesk 20 (CD20) fell 5.5%.

NFT Mania Is Back? Maybe Not, but a CryptoPunk Just Sold for a Record $56.3M

Punk 1563 changed hands for 24,000 ETH, a huge markup versus recent pricing.

A hallmark of the last cryptocurrency bull market was the remarkably high sale prices for various non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

The world has largely moved on from NFTs, with enthusiasm for crypto products embellished with quirky images now directly toward memecoins – so, so many memecoins.

Yet, on Thursday, a sign of bull markets past returned: A CryptoPunk NFT just sold for a record price of $56.3 million. The prior all-time high of $23.7 million was set in February 2022, months before the crypto winter got truly dark.

Punk 1563, depicting a pixelated woman with dark hair and blue eyes, fetched 24,000 ether (ETH) in the transaction. As recently as September, it was offered for sale for less than 30 ETH – meaning the latest deal represented a huge markup versus recent pricing.

NFTs have historically seen all manner of weirdness around sales. There was the time in 2021 when another CryptoPunk technically sold for $532 million, though blockchain data clearly show the same person was on both sides of the trade.

And there have been allegations that NFT were used for money laundering.

It’s not clear what the motivations were for Punk 1563, though.

Bitcoin Dominance Nears 3-Year High Amid Altcoin Weakness; Aptos Outperforms as SUI Drops

Bitcoin held above the $60,000 key support level, while Ethereum’s ETH fell to near its weakest level against BTC since mid-September.

Bitcoin (BTC) once again was teetering above the $60,000 level on Thursday, while smaller cryptocurrencies tumbled amid geopolitical turmoil and the surging U.S. dollar.

BTC rebounded to $61,500 during the Asian trading hours from Wednesday’s very brief dip below $60,000, but turned lower during the European and U.S. sessions. The largest cryptocurrency changed hands around $60,700 recently, up 1% over the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, the broad-market benchmark CoinDesk 20 Index fell 1.5% during the same period, indicating the weakness in the rest of the digital asset market relative to BTC. Ethereum’s ether (ETH) was down 1%, while Ripple’s XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX) and Render (RNDR) led losses among altcoin majors.

One notable outperformer was layer-1 blockchain Aptos’ (APT) native token gaining 7% for the day. Wednesday news of Franklin Templeton expanding its tokenized money market fund to that blockchain may explain that outperformance, while some observers speculated that traders rotated some profits from close competitor network Sui’s (SUI) 110% rally in a month.

Bitcoin’s outperformance over the broader market meant that BTC’s market share of the total crypto market capitalization – also known as Bitcoin Dominance – climbed above 58%, while the ETH-to-BTC ratio dropped near its mid-September trough of 0.038.

“Bitcoin dominance continues to trend higher, and it is now just 0.2% away from a new three-year high,” said James Van Straten, a senior analyst at CoinDesk.

U.S. dollar surging

The overall dismal week for crypto happened with increasing concerns about military escalation in the Middle East, which sent crude oil prices near $74 a barrel, the highest in more than a month, while the U.S. dollar hit its strongest level against key currencies since mid-August.

Thursday’s stronger-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing data also supported dollar strength, which usually weighs on prices for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

“We saw more solid services data from the U.S., which pushed the U.S. dollar index (DXY) closer to 102, giving a 70% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the November meeting,” Van Straten said.

What may have exacerbated dollar strength and the general risk-off move on asset markets in early October is a spike in Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), a key borrowing interest rate between banks that could be a signal of liquidity stress, Steno Research’s Samuel Shiffman noted in a report.

The report added that the situation is reminiscent – albeit on a smaller scale – of the repo crisis in September 2019, when the Federal Reserve was forced to intervene to end dysfunction in key lending markets.

“We are nearing levels where liquidity pain becomes acute,” Shiffman said, adding that the Fed “could feel tempted to address it” by adding liquidity to the financial system.

Another important catalyst for markets will be Friday’s U.S. jobs report. “A combination of expected rate cuts and labor strength could boost risk assets,” crypto hedge fund QCP Capital said.

IMF Urges El Salvador Again to Strengthen Regulatory Framework and Oversight of Bitcoin

The IMF has been asking El Salvador for changes regarding its bitcoin law since its adoption in 2021.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommended on Tuesday that El Salvador narrow the scope of the bitcoin law and strengthen the regulatory framework and oversight of the bitcoin ecosystem.

During a press conference, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack also said that the IMF recommended El Salvador limiting public sector exposure to bitcoin, Reuters reported.

This isn’t the first time IMF has warned El Salvador. Most recently, in August, the IMF said something similar when it declared in a statement that “while many of the risks have not yet materialized, there is joint recognition that further efforts are needed to enhance transparency and mitigate potential fiscal and financial stability risks from the Bitcoin project.” At that time, the IMF also said that “additional discussions in this and other key areas remain necessary.”

In fact, the back-and-forth history between El Salvador and the IMF over bitcoin goes back years. In November 2021, the IMF said that bitcoin should not be used as legal tender in El Salvador and urged the Central American country to strengthen the regulation and supervision of that ecosystem, something it called for again in January 2022.

El Salvador established bitcoin as legal tender in September 2021, being the first country to do so globally. Currently, it holds 5892 BTC, equivalent to about $345 million at today’s price.

Nayib Bukele, El Salvador’s president, recently said his plan to make the country a hotbed for the largest and oldest cryptocurrency has been “net positive” but adoption has fallen short of his expectations.

In Thursday’s presentation, the IMF positively highlighted Bukele’s budget for 2025, which expects the country to be debt-free.

Bitcoin, Gold Could Benefit From Rising Geopolitical Tension and U.S. Election: JPMorgan

Geopolitical risk and the upcoming U.S. election are likely to reinforce the ‘debasement trade,’ to the benefit of both bitcoin and gold, the report said.

Geopolitical tension and the upcoming U.S. presidential election will likely underpin the ‘debasement trade,’ and this favors both bitcoin (BTC) and gold, JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report on Wednesday.

“A Trump win in particular, apart from being supportive of bitcoin from a regulatory point of view, would likely reinforce the ‘debasement trade’ both via tariffs (geopolitical tensions) and via an expansionary fiscal policy (‘debt debasement’),” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.

Markets aren’t pricing in a victory for the former president just yet. The chances of a Trump election win are currently priced in with a low probability looking at other asset classes other than gold and bitcoin, the report said, adding that this is because investors have been preoccupied with the recession trade in recent months.

If the “Trump trade” plays out in a similar way to 2016, there should be higher U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, U.S. stock market outperformance, in particular banks, and tighter credit spreads, JPMorgan said. This shift has not happened yet, with only a small move higher seen in these markets.

JPMorgan noted that in the six month window around the 2016 American election, 5-year Treasury yields rose 1%, the Dollar Index (DXY) surged 8%, U.S. equities outperformed to the tune of 6%, banks beat the rest of of S&P 500 stock index by 15% and high grade corporate credit spreads tightened significantly.

Bitcoin is not a safe haven against geopolitical risks, investment bank Standard Chartered said in a report yesterday.