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Bitcoin’s ‘Outside Day’ Sets Stage for $70K, Altcoins Break Out: Technical Analysis

Thursday’s bullish trading range marks an end of the recent consolidation and a resumption of the rebound from lows under $53,000.

Earlier this week, analysts at the Bitfinex crypto exchange said August’s $65,200 high is the level to beat for bitcoin (BTC) bulls.

The breakout happened Thursday and how. Bitcoin jumped over 3%, the most in nine days, to the highest since July 31 with a wider trading range than Tuesday, according to charting platform TradingView.

In other words, the cryptocurrency formed a bullish “outside day” pattern, signaling an end of the recent consolidation below $65,000 and a resumption of the rally from lows under $53,000.

“The outside day can form midway in a price trend, just like flags and pennants. Since outside days act as continuation patterns, expect the breakout to be in the same direction as the inbound price trend,” investor and technical analysis expert Thomas N. Bulkowski wrote in his book “Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.”

The breakout flipped the August high into a support level, shifting focus to the next resistance closer to $70,000. The resistance is identified by the trendline connecting highs registered in March and June.

Bitcoin has gained almost 1% so far on Friday, close to $66,000, validating the bullish breakout. The positive bias would be invalidated if prices fell below Thursday’s low of $62,805.

Altcoin breakout

While bitcoin is still stuck in a broad descending channel, the cumulative market capitalization of alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins), or tokens other than market leaders bitcoin and ether, has broken out of a six-month corrective trend.

The breakout points to a potential “alt season” ahead, a period characterized by smaller tokens outperforming BTC and ETH.

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Fantasy Sports Company Sorare Charged With Providing Unlicensed Gambling Facilities in U.K.

Sorare was charged with violating the Gambling Act 2005 in the regulator’s first move against a blockchain-based platform.

Sorare, a fantasy sports company, was charged with providing unlicensed gambling facilities in the U.K. in the Gambling Commission’s first action against a blockchain-based platform.

The company, based in Saint-Mande, France, operates fantasy soccer, basketball and baseball games that allow participants to buy and sell collectible cards using non-fungible tokens (NFTs). It has inked deals with the English Premier League and Germany’s Bundesliga, among other national sporting associations. NFTs are unique digital tokens used to represent assets.

“Sorare is charged with providing facilities for gambling without holding an operating licence,” the commission said on its website. The company will have to appear on Oct. 4 in Birmingham Magistrates’ Court.

The charges follow an almost three-year inquiry by the regulator. In 2021 the commission said it was looking into whether Sorare needed a gambling license. The case is the first time it has clamped down on the use of a blockchain-based platform and the outcome could set a precedent for how regulators handle Web3 firms in the future.

It is also another sign suggesting U.K. regulators are taking more enforcement action against suspected illicit activity in the crypto space following a swoop on unregulated crypto ATM’s.

“We firmly deny any claims that Sorare is a gambling product under U.K. laws,” a Sorare spokesperson said. “The Commission has misunderstood our business and wrongly determined that gambling laws apply to Sorare.”

Bitcoin FOMO is Back: 10X Research’s Markus Thielen

A $10 billion surge in stablecoin minting over the past weeks has flooded the crypto market with liquidity, Thielen noted.

Impressive gains since the U.S. Federal Reserve’s mid-September rate cut have pushed bitcoin (BTC) out of its downtrend and the crypto is now targeting $70,000 and then new record highs, according to a new research report.

“Are you holding enough bitcoin and altcoins to ride the new wave,” is the subtitle of 10X Research’s Markus Thielen’s latest analysis. “With bitcoin breaking above $65,000, we anticipate a swift move toward $70,000, followed by new all-time highs in the near term.”

Thielen took note of a sharp increase in stablecoin minting following the Fed’s July meeting, at which it left rates unchanged but indicated a September easing was likely. Nearly $10 billion in stablecoin minting ensued in the subsequent weeks, said Thielen, flooding the crypto markets with liquidity and sharply surpassing spot ETF flows.

Of particular interest, said Thielen, Circle’s USDC accounted for 40% of recent stablecoin inflows, a far higher share versus Tether’s USDT than is typical. It’s important, he said, as while USDT minting on TRON is typically associated with capital preservation, USDC minting could indicate a rise in DeFi activity.

Noting that 55% of currently mined bitcoins are coming from Chinese mining pools, Thielen said that country’s massive monetary and fiscal stimulus measures – announced just after the Fed rate cut – could trigger large capital outflows from China and into cryptos.

“The likelihood of a Q4 rally is exceptionally high, with gains likely front-loaded,” Thielen concluded. “A major surge could be on the horizon, sparking even more FOMO across the crypto space.”

Bitcoin currently is higher by 2.3% over the past 24 hours and nearly 12% month-over-month to $66,300, its highest level since late July.

MicroStrategy 2X Leveraged ETF Sees Massive Inflows In First Week Of Trading As MSTR Outperforms Bitcoin

The T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) took in $72 million in the first week of trading, according to data by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Seven days after hitting the market, the T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) has become one of the most successful new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the market after attracting over $72 million.

The fund, issued by REX Shares and Tuttle Capital Management, promises two times the daily performance to the stock of MicroStrategy (MSTR), the software mogul turned bitcoin strategy company, the most leverage any fund tied to MSTR gives.

A similar fund, the Defiance Daily Target 1.75X Long MicroStrategy ETF (MSTX), promises traders returns of 175% of the daily percentage change in the share price of MSTR. MSTX went live on Aug. 15 and has so far taken in roughly $857 million, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, putting it in the top 8% of launches this year.

“Both have robust liquidity,” Balchunas said in a post on X. “I didn’t think there was room for both (esp so quickly), it just [shows] how much ‘need for speed’ there is out there.”

MicroStrategy has been an attractive investment for traders looking to gain exposure to bitcoin (BTC) without directly investing in the digital asset, as shares of the company are highly correlated with the token due to MicroStrategy’s holding 252,220 BTC.

MicroStrategy outperforms bitcoin and tech in current market rally

Bitcoin’s price has just exceeded $66,000 for the first time since July 31. At that time, MicroStrategy was priced at $168; it is now trading at almost $178, $10 a share higher. As MicroStrategy is trading higher while bitcoin effectively has been flat since then, this shows that MicroStrategy is leading the current rally.

Another development can be seen with the divergence between MicroStrategy and NVIDIA (NVDA). Both assets were in lockstep for the past month, but since Sept. 19, MicroStrategy has gone on from strength to strength while NVIDIA has flatlined. This shows that tech is not the primary driver in this rally.

China’s Former Minister of Finance Calls Crypto a ‘Crucial Aspect’ of Digital Economy

The former minister called on Beijing to study the industry in light of Republican candidate Donald Trump’s comments on crypto.

China’s former minister of finance, Zhu Guangyao, said at a forum hosted by Tsinghua University that the government should study crypto more closely, given remarks made on the U.S. campaign trail.

Crypto “has negative impacts, and we must fully recognize its risks and the harm it poses to capital markets,” Sina News quoted him as saying. “However, we must also study the latest international changes and policy adjustments, as it is a crucial aspect of digital economy development.”

Sina reports that Zhu pointed directly at Republican Candidate Donald Trump’s remarks as a need for further action by Beijing.

At the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in July, Trump said that the U.S. must embrace the crypto industry fully, or “China will do it.”

Crypto, he said at the time, is “the steel industry of 100 years ago. You’re just in your infancy. One day, it probably will overtake gold. There’s never been anything like it.”

Zhu also noted that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had approved bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) despite initial opposition.

While mainland China remains cautious on crypto, Hong Kong – which maintains a semi-autonomous system of government and market regulations – has embraced it, listing bitcoin and ether ETFs, while some members of its mini-legislature actively court the industry to open up shop in the city.

Bitcoin Bulls Eye $75K and Higher as BTC Registers Three-Week Winning Streak

BTC has registered its first three-week winning trend since February.

Bitcoin (BTC) has notched its first three-week winning streak since February, according to data source TradingView. The upswing has been characterized by traders buying call options, offering an asymmetric upside potential above $75,000.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value rose over 3% in the seven days to Sept. 29, extending over 7% price increases that occurred in each of the previous two weeks. China’s large stimulus announcement and inflows into the U.S.-listed spot ETFs, equivalent to more than a month’s supply of newly mined BTC, likely helped the cryptocurrency maintain the upward trajectory.

As prices rose, dealers saw massive call buying activity at the $75,000 strike price and beyond on crypto exchange Deribit, according to order flow tracked by Amberdata. Investors also sold put options.

“This flow pattern suggests a bullish outlook for spot prices (due to the put selling) while also anticipating an acceleration in price movement,” Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives, Greg Magadini, said in a note shared with CoinDesk.

A call option gives the holder the right but not the obligation to purchase the underlying asset, BTC, at a predetermined price at a later date. A call buyer is implicitly bullish on the market, while a put buyer is bearish, looking to hedge against price swoons.

The bullish flow of increased call buying and put selling suggests expectations that prices will soon break out of a six-month-long corrective trend, referred to as the “expanding triangle” by veteran analyst Peter Brandt.

A potential break out would mean the broader uptrend from October 2023 lows under $30,000 has resumed.

“A break above $75K could lead to a swift rally through all-time highs toward $100K, where the last tranche of call buyer activity is concentrated in the December 27, 2024, expiration,” Magadini said.

Crypto Services Provider Matrixport Buys Deutsche Boerse Unit, Crypto Finance

Crypto Finance AG has been renamed as Matrixport Asset Management AG (MAM).

Singapore-based crypto financial services platform Matrixport has announced an all-cash acquisition of licensed Swiss crypto asset manager and former Deutsche Boerse Group subsidiary, Crypto Finance (Asset Management) AG.

The Switzerland-based entity, now renamed Matrixport Asset Management AG (MAM), offers cutting-edge, institutional-grade digital assets investment solutions, including the first FINMA-approved crypto fund.

FINMA is the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, an independent regulator of the European nation’s financial markets. Matrixport has $6 billion in assets under management.

The regulatory-compliant acquisition expands Matrixport’s footprints in Europe, reflecting the firm’s “steadfast commitment towards continually collaborating with regulators to review existing regulations and refine virtual assets specific regulations in the years to come,” Matrixport’s Chief Compliance Officer & Head of Regulatory, Christopher Liu, said in the press release.

Stefan Schwitter, the former head of Crypto Finance AG and now the CEO of MAM, said global clients stand to benefit from both firms’ expertise.

Bitcoin’s Bearish September May Be Its Best Since 2013 Ahead of Bullish October

BTC is close to ending September up 9%, its best since 2013, ahead of a seasonally bullish October.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) historically worst month may have be its best one yet, with the asset on track to gain at least 9% this September, beating a trend that’s seen it end in the red eight times since 2013.

And that’s putting the asset on a stronger footing going into October, the start of a generally bullish period with some traders targeting a run to as much as $70,000 in the coming weeks from the current $64,000 levels. A green September has always resulted in bitcoin closing higher in October, November and December.

In contrast to September, there have just been two October months where bitcoin has ended in the red since 2013 – chalking gains of as high as 60% and an average of 22%.

Seasonality is the tendency of assets to experience regular and predictable changes that recur during the calendar year. While it may look random, possible reasons range from profit-taking around tax season in April and May, which causes drawdowns, to the generally bullish “Santa Claus” rally in December, a sign of increased demand.

September has recorded an average value depletion rate of 6.56% in bitcoin, as previously reported, leading to traders being generally defensive about betting on higher prices.

But it gained amid a slew of global monetary easing policies, a weakening yen, increased institutional investments in bitcoin and both political parties in the U.S. – which influence market movements – showing a favorable sentiment toward the crypto market ahead of November elections.

The trend is widely expected to continue.

“With crypto correlations staying high to macro assets, particularly against the SPX, we consider the friendly macro background to remain a strong tailwind for crypto prices into Q4,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.

“Furthermore, with the Kamala camp playing lip service to crypto ‘support’ as part of her campaign rhetoric, we remain bullish on price action in the near term, with targeted put-selling strategies likely to be popular as investors switch into a ‘buy-the-dip’ mode,” he added.

Key Indicators Challenge Fed’s ‘Normalization’ Rate Cut That Torched Bitcoin Rally

The post-Fed risk-on rally supports the normalization narrative, but some indicators disagree, suggesting caution to bulls.

Since the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 50 basis points a week ago, the debate has been raging on whether the so-called easing represents the normalization of an overly tight monetary policy aimed at taming inflation or preparation for an impending economic swoon.

Risk assets, including pure fiat liquidity plays like bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins, have rallied since the Fed decision, a sign that markets perceive the rate cut as a normalization move. Some analysts foresee accelerated gains once bitcoin surpasses the $65,200 resistance.

However, at least three indicators point to an economic malaise ahead, suggesting caution on the part of the bulls. Perhaps, the Fed delivered an outsized rate cut, taking note of these forward-looking indicators.

Rising joblessness

The U.S. Household Survey, which tracks the unemployment rate across 50 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico, showed that as of August, more than 57% of states experienced an increase in joblessness compared to the preceding month and the same period last year, according to data tracked by MacroMicro.

The fact that most states are witnessing an uptick in the unemployment rate means the risk of reduced income, consumer spending and investment, and a decline in business and consumer confidence in the months ahead, potentially leading to a marked economic slowdown, if not an outright recession (consecutive quarters of economic contraction). A slowdown could see investors scale back exposure to riskier investments.

“According to August’s analysis, 57.7% of U.S. states reported higher unemployment rates than the previous month and year. This points to increasing challenges in the labor market, possibly signaling a more widespread slowdown,” MacroMicro said on X.

Lead/lag ratio

Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell to 100.2 in August, falling to its lowest since October 2016. The index marked its sixth consecutive monthly decline, triggering a recession signal.

The LEI comprises several forward-looking indicators such as average weekly hours in manufacturing, average weekly initial claims for jobless insurance, ISM new orders index, stock prices and leading credit index. The index is widely tracked to identify shifts in economic trends and turning points in asset prices.

More concerning is the slide in the ratio between leading and lagging indicators to under 0.85, the lowest since at least the 1950s, according to data tracked by Jeff Weniger, head of equities at WisdomTree.

The plunge seen over the past several months points to a potential slowdown or recession, with lagging indicators catching up to the economic reality.

The ratio has seen eight similar meltdowns in the past, each portending a recession.

Surging gold/brent ratio

The ratio between prices for gold futures and brent crude futures has surged over 35% this year to nearly 40 points, the highest since 2020, according to data source MacroMicro.

Gold is a safe haven asset and an inflation hedge, while oil is tied to global demand and economic activity. Therefore, gold’s prolonged outperformance relative to oil is often taken to represent a sign of economic slowdown.

Celo Challenges Tron’s Leadership in Active Stablecoin Addresses

The CELO token rallied over 20% on Wednesday as Vitalik Buterin cheered Celo’s progress.

Celo, an Ethereum layer 2 and blockchain-based ecosystem dedicated to mobile-first decentralized applications and smart contracts, is challenging Tron’s position as the chain with the most daily active addresses using stablecoins.

The seven-day moving average of the daily active addresses using stablecoins on Celo has climbed to nearly 700,000, nearly matching Tron’s tally, according to data tracked by Artemis.

The surge follows Tether’s decision to deploy its industry-leading dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, on Celo in March. Since then, USDT worth over $200 million has been issued on the network.

A year ago, Celo and Opera partnered to launch MiniPay, a mobile-first non-custodial stablecoin wallet built on the Celo blockchain that facilitates the instant transfer of funds using a phone number.

“Within less than five months of its launch, MiniPay garnered over 1 million users across Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya,” a Celo representative told CoinDesk in an email.

On Wednesday, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin cheered Celo’s progress on X, galvanizing investor interest in the CELO token. As of writing, the cryptocurrency traded at 63 cents, representing a nearly 20% gain on a 24-hour basis, according to CoinDesk data.

“Improving worldwide access to basic payments/finance has always been a key way that ethereum can be good for the world, and it’s great to see @Celo getting traction,” Buterin said on X.

Celo still lags behind Tron in terms of value of stablecoin transferred on-chain this month. Data from Artemis shows that Celo has registered just over $1 billion in the so-called transfer volume, significantly less than Tron’s $335.7 billion. Ethereum remains in the pole position with a tally of over $470.4 billion.