Prizmabet

Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $242.6M, Biggest Outflow Since Sept. 3

The outflows snapped an eight-day winning streak as BTC lost as much as 6% amid an acute heightening of tensions in the Middle East.

Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. saw outflows of $242.6 million on Tuesday in their worst day since Sept. 3, according to data from SoSoValue.

The outflows snapped an eight-day streak of inflows as BTC lost as much as 6% amid an acute sharpening of tensions in the Middle East that saw Iran fire around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday. The strike followed Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah, designated a terror group by more than 60 jurisdictions including the U.S., European Union and Arab League, in Lebanon in recent weeks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate.

Bitcoin fell to a low of $60,300, erasing almost all of its gains since the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut last month, signaling an inauspicious start to “Uptober,” the community’s affectionate name for the calendar month that has historically seen the highest gains for BTC. The largest cryptocurrency has lost 2.6% since the start of the month, CoinDesk Indices data show.

Ether ETFs also suffered on Tuesday with outflows of $48.5 million, the worst day since Sept. 23.

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Christie’s to Offer Blockchain-Based Ownership Certificates for Photography Collection

Wednesday’s sale of “An Eye Towards the Real: Photographs from the Collection of Ambassador Trevor Traina,” in New York will see digital certificates issued for each of the 130 lots, which will be minted by Kresus on Base.

Christie’s is again experimenting with blockchain-based technology by issuing digital certificates of ownership for a photograph collection by Trevor Traina, the founder of wallet provider Kresus and former U.S. ambassador to Austria.

The auction house’s sale of “An Eye Towards the Real: Photographs from the Collection of Ambassador Trevor Traina,” on Wednesday at the Rockefeller Center in New York will issue digital certificates for each of the 130 lots. The ownership certificates will be minted by Kresus on Base, the Ethereum layer-2 blockchain developed by Coinbase (COIN).

“This pilot program marks a significant step forward in the art world’s adoption of blockchain technology, aligning physical works with digital certificates to ensure transparency and security for art collectors,” Christie’s and Kresus said in an emailed announcement on Wednesday.

Christie’s involvement in blockchain-based innovations goes back to 2021, when it auctioned digital artist Beeple’s “Everyday” collection for $69 million, at the time the most expensive non-fungible token (NFT) ever sold.

U.S. Election Betting: Court Ends Pause on Kalshi’s Congressional Contracts

The CFTC “has failed to demonstrate that it or the public will suffer irreparable injury absent a stay pending appeal,” an appeals court said, clearing the prediction market to resume listing the contracts.

With a month to go before the U.S. election, prediction market Kalshi just got cleared to resume listing its contracts on which party will control each house of Congress.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia denied a motion by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to halt the contracts pending the agency’s appeal of the case it lost to Kalshi in a lower court last month.

“The Commission has failed to demonstrate that it or the public will suffer irreparable injury absent a stay pending appeal, and therefore its motion for a stay is denied without prejudice to renewal should substantiating evidence arise,” wrote Circuit Judge Patricia Millett. “The administrative stay is hereby dissolved.”

Following its long-sought victory in the lower court, Kalshi listed the contracts on Sept. 13. They traded for only a few hours before the appeals court granted an administrative stay, which it lifted Tuesday.

Kalshi, the sole U.S.-regulated prediction market, sued the CFTC last year after the agency denied the exchange’s application to list election contracts, on the grounds that they constituted gaming and would be contrary to the public interest.

While it’s been fighting the agency in court, the New York-based company, which settles bets in dollars, has watched crypto-powered rival Polymarket, which is barred from doing business in the U.S., nevertheless rack up record volumes during this election year. Over $1 billion alone has been staked on Polymarket’s contract on who will win the presidency.

A Kalshi spokesperson told CoinDesk the company did not yet have a timetable for resuming listing the contracts, but that it would “very soon.”

Indiana Man Pleads Guilty to Stealing $38M in Crypto Via ‘Cyber Intrusion’

Evan Light, 21, faces up to 40 years in prison for his role in the crime.

An Indiana man has pleaded guilty to taking part in the “cyber intrusion” of a Sioux Falls, South Dakota-based financial services company, during which he and unnamed co-conspirators hacked into the company’s servers, stole customers’ personal information, and then stole nearly $38 million in cryptocurrency from 571 victims.

According to his plea agreement, 21-year-old Evan Light, of Lebanon, Indiana, and his unnamed co-conspirators were able to infiltrate the unnamed company’s servers after stealing the identity of one of its clients. They then used that client’s information to illegally gain access to the company’s servers and carry out the theft.

After the theft, Light pleaded guilty to laundering the group’s ill-gotten gains, funneling them through “multiple mixing services and gambling websites” to conceal his identity and the identities of his co-conspirators. He also pleaded guilty to wiring the proceeds and then storing them in a cold wallet under his control.

“These convictions reflect the relentless efforts of the U.S. Attorney’s Office and the FBI in identifying a cybercriminal, holding him accountable, and prioritizing the victims of his crimes,” said U.S. Attorney Alison Ramsdell in a Tuesday press release. “Although this defendant tried to hide in the shadows of a cyber underworld, he was not beyond the reach of our team, and today’s guilty verdicts should serve as a reminder that this Office and its law enforcement partners will bring cyber criminals to justice, regardless how sophisticated their crimes may be.”

The theft took place in February 2022. According to a local news outlet, the FBI raided Light’s residence, which he shared with his mother, in May 2023, approximately two weeks after he was indicted by a grand jury for conspiracy to commit wire fraud and conspiracy to launder monetary instruments.

Both counts carry a maximum sentence of 20 years, meaning Light faces up to 40 years in prison. No date has yet been set for Light’s sentencing.

Fantasy Sports Company Sorare Charged With Providing Unlicensed Gambling Facilities in U.K.

Sorare was charged with violating the Gambling Act 2005 in the regulator’s first move against a blockchain-based platform.

Sorare, a fantasy sports company, was charged with providing unlicensed gambling facilities in the U.K. in the Gambling Commission’s first action against a blockchain-based platform.

The company, based in Saint-Mande, France, operates fantasy soccer, basketball and baseball games that allow participants to buy and sell collectible cards using non-fungible tokens (NFTs). It has inked deals with the English Premier League and Germany’s Bundesliga, among other national sporting associations. NFTs are unique digital tokens used to represent assets.

“Sorare is charged with providing facilities for gambling without holding an operating licence,” the commission said on its website. The company will have to appear on Oct. 4 in Birmingham Magistrates’ Court.

The charges follow an almost three-year inquiry by the regulator. In 2021 the commission said it was looking into whether Sorare needed a gambling license. The case is the first time it has clamped down on the use of a blockchain-based platform and the outcome could set a precedent for how regulators handle Web3 firms in the future.

It is also another sign suggesting U.K. regulators are taking more enforcement action against suspected illicit activity in the crypto space following a swoop on unregulated crypto ATM’s.

“We firmly deny any claims that Sorare is a gambling product under U.K. laws,” a Sorare spokesperson said. “The Commission has misunderstood our business and wrongly determined that gambling laws apply to Sorare.”

Bitcoin FOMO is Back: 10X Research’s Markus Thielen

A $10 billion surge in stablecoin minting over the past weeks has flooded the crypto market with liquidity, Thielen noted.

Impressive gains since the U.S. Federal Reserve’s mid-September rate cut have pushed bitcoin (BTC) out of its downtrend and the crypto is now targeting $70,000 and then new record highs, according to a new research report.

“Are you holding enough bitcoin and altcoins to ride the new wave,” is the subtitle of 10X Research’s Markus Thielen’s latest analysis. “With bitcoin breaking above $65,000, we anticipate a swift move toward $70,000, followed by new all-time highs in the near term.”

Thielen took note of a sharp increase in stablecoin minting following the Fed’s July meeting, at which it left rates unchanged but indicated a September easing was likely. Nearly $10 billion in stablecoin minting ensued in the subsequent weeks, said Thielen, flooding the crypto markets with liquidity and sharply surpassing spot ETF flows.

Of particular interest, said Thielen, Circle’s USDC accounted for 40% of recent stablecoin inflows, a far higher share versus Tether’s USDT than is typical. It’s important, he said, as while USDT minting on TRON is typically associated with capital preservation, USDC minting could indicate a rise in DeFi activity.

Noting that 55% of currently mined bitcoins are coming from Chinese mining pools, Thielen said that country’s massive monetary and fiscal stimulus measures – announced just after the Fed rate cut – could trigger large capital outflows from China and into cryptos.

“The likelihood of a Q4 rally is exceptionally high, with gains likely front-loaded,” Thielen concluded. “A major surge could be on the horizon, sparking even more FOMO across the crypto space.”

Bitcoin currently is higher by 2.3% over the past 24 hours and nearly 12% month-over-month to $66,300, its highest level since late July.

MicroStrategy 2X Leveraged ETF Sees Massive Inflows In First Week Of Trading As MSTR Outperforms Bitcoin

The T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) took in $72 million in the first week of trading, according to data by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Seven days after hitting the market, the T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) has become one of the most successful new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the market after attracting over $72 million.

The fund, issued by REX Shares and Tuttle Capital Management, promises two times the daily performance to the stock of MicroStrategy (MSTR), the software mogul turned bitcoin strategy company, the most leverage any fund tied to MSTR gives.

A similar fund, the Defiance Daily Target 1.75X Long MicroStrategy ETF (MSTX), promises traders returns of 175% of the daily percentage change in the share price of MSTR. MSTX went live on Aug. 15 and has so far taken in roughly $857 million, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, putting it in the top 8% of launches this year.

“Both have robust liquidity,” Balchunas said in a post on X. “I didn’t think there was room for both (esp so quickly), it just [shows] how much ‘need for speed’ there is out there.”

MicroStrategy has been an attractive investment for traders looking to gain exposure to bitcoin (BTC) without directly investing in the digital asset, as shares of the company are highly correlated with the token due to MicroStrategy’s holding 252,220 BTC.

MicroStrategy outperforms bitcoin and tech in current market rally

Bitcoin’s price has just exceeded $66,000 for the first time since July 31. At that time, MicroStrategy was priced at $168; it is now trading at almost $178, $10 a share higher. As MicroStrategy is trading higher while bitcoin effectively has been flat since then, this shows that MicroStrategy is leading the current rally.

Another development can be seen with the divergence between MicroStrategy and NVIDIA (NVDA). Both assets were in lockstep for the past month, but since Sept. 19, MicroStrategy has gone on from strength to strength while NVIDIA has flatlined. This shows that tech is not the primary driver in this rally.

China’s Former Minister of Finance Calls Crypto a ‘Crucial Aspect’ of Digital Economy

The former minister called on Beijing to study the industry in light of Republican candidate Donald Trump’s comments on crypto.

China’s former minister of finance, Zhu Guangyao, said at a forum hosted by Tsinghua University that the government should study crypto more closely, given remarks made on the U.S. campaign trail.

Crypto “has negative impacts, and we must fully recognize its risks and the harm it poses to capital markets,” Sina News quoted him as saying. “However, we must also study the latest international changes and policy adjustments, as it is a crucial aspect of digital economy development.”

Sina reports that Zhu pointed directly at Republican Candidate Donald Trump’s remarks as a need for further action by Beijing.

At the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in July, Trump said that the U.S. must embrace the crypto industry fully, or “China will do it.”

Crypto, he said at the time, is “the steel industry of 100 years ago. You’re just in your infancy. One day, it probably will overtake gold. There’s never been anything like it.”

Zhu also noted that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had approved bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) despite initial opposition.

While mainland China remains cautious on crypto, Hong Kong – which maintains a semi-autonomous system of government and market regulations – has embraced it, listing bitcoin and ether ETFs, while some members of its mini-legislature actively court the industry to open up shop in the city.

Key Indicators Challenge Fed’s ‘Normalization’ Rate Cut That Torched Bitcoin Rally

The post-Fed risk-on rally supports the normalization narrative, but some indicators disagree, suggesting caution to bulls.

Since the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 50 basis points a week ago, the debate has been raging on whether the so-called easing represents the normalization of an overly tight monetary policy aimed at taming inflation or preparation for an impending economic swoon.

Risk assets, including pure fiat liquidity plays like bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins, have rallied since the Fed decision, a sign that markets perceive the rate cut as a normalization move. Some analysts foresee accelerated gains once bitcoin surpasses the $65,200 resistance.

However, at least three indicators point to an economic malaise ahead, suggesting caution on the part of the bulls. Perhaps, the Fed delivered an outsized rate cut, taking note of these forward-looking indicators.

Rising joblessness

The U.S. Household Survey, which tracks the unemployment rate across 50 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico, showed that as of August, more than 57% of states experienced an increase in joblessness compared to the preceding month and the same period last year, according to data tracked by MacroMicro.

The fact that most states are witnessing an uptick in the unemployment rate means the risk of reduced income, consumer spending and investment, and a decline in business and consumer confidence in the months ahead, potentially leading to a marked economic slowdown, if not an outright recession (consecutive quarters of economic contraction). A slowdown could see investors scale back exposure to riskier investments.

“According to August’s analysis, 57.7% of U.S. states reported higher unemployment rates than the previous month and year. This points to increasing challenges in the labor market, possibly signaling a more widespread slowdown,” MacroMicro said on X.

Lead/lag ratio

Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell to 100.2 in August, falling to its lowest since October 2016. The index marked its sixth consecutive monthly decline, triggering a recession signal.

The LEI comprises several forward-looking indicators such as average weekly hours in manufacturing, average weekly initial claims for jobless insurance, ISM new orders index, stock prices and leading credit index. The index is widely tracked to identify shifts in economic trends and turning points in asset prices.

More concerning is the slide in the ratio between leading and lagging indicators to under 0.85, the lowest since at least the 1950s, according to data tracked by Jeff Weniger, head of equities at WisdomTree.

The plunge seen over the past several months points to a potential slowdown or recession, with lagging indicators catching up to the economic reality.

The ratio has seen eight similar meltdowns in the past, each portending a recession.

Surging gold/brent ratio

The ratio between prices for gold futures and brent crude futures has surged over 35% this year to nearly 40 points, the highest since 2020, according to data source MacroMicro.

Gold is a safe haven asset and an inflation hedge, while oil is tied to global demand and economic activity. Therefore, gold’s prolonged outperformance relative to oil is often taken to represent a sign of economic slowdown.

Wall Street Titan Guggenheim Tokenizes $20M of Commercial Paper on Ethereum

Blockchain platform Zeconomy assisted the $300B asset manager with the transaction and reports “massive demand” for digital assets.

Guggenheim Treasury Services, a subsidiary of financial services giant Guggenheim Partners, has issued $20 million of tokenized commercial paper on the Ethereum blockchain, its partner, blockchain platform Zeconomy, announced Thursday.

A spokesperson for Guggenheim confirmed the transaction took place but would not comment further.

The tokenization comes weeks after German industrial giant Siemens AG issued digital commercial paper via megabank JPMorgan’s Onyx and blockchain platform SWIAT.

Tokenization of traditional financial instruments, referred to as real-world assets (RWA), has become one of the hottest areas in crypto for TradFi firms to dabble in lately. The niche has grown to a $12 billion market capitalization, including $2 billion of tokenized U.S. government securities, according to research firm RWA.XYZ.

“With tens of billions of dollars locked in DeFi and corporate treasuries, we are thrilled to partner with GTS to address a clear need for more trusted and secure blockchain solutions,” said Giacinto Cosenza, Zeconomy’s CEO, in a statement.

“As clearly demonstrated by the ETFs approval and the growth of the tokenization space, there is a massive demand for these digital assets, and we want to enable our partners so they can be at the forefront of what could be a transformative moment in the financial industry,” he said.

The commercial paper was rated P-1, the highest credit rating available for such instruments, by Moody’s Investors Service. Commercial paper is short-term (less than a year, usually 30 days), unsecured debt issued by corporations.

While RWA is a new direction for Guggenheim, which boasts a whopping $300 billion in assets under management (AUM), the global investment firm has previously participated in the crypto ecosystem.

The firm’s Macro Opportunities Funds has for years been authorized to take on up to 10% exposure to the former Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which in January converted into one of the spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETF).