Bitcoin (BTC) set a fresh record above $106,000 earlier Monday, with traders now targeting the $120,000 level as the asset moves into the second half of a seasonally bullish December.
Recent catalysts that have supported growth in BTC include increased speculation of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump creating a federal bitcoin reserve, and crypto companies such as Riot Platforms and MicroStrategy purchasing billions worth of the asset in past weeks.
Optimism in U.S. policies are driving bitcoin ETFs inflows higher, contributing to increased prices, some point out.
“TradFi inflows now dominate all sentiment and price action in BTC unlike any other prior crypto cycle before,” shared Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, in a Telegram message to CoinDesk. “This influence will only grow as more and more traditional firms finally need to have a digital asset policy given the immense revenue opportunities and sea-change in the political environment.”
Recent price action has shown bitcoin forming higher lows, indicative of a sustained uptrend. The formation of a bull flag or a bullish continuation pattern after recent highs could signal further upward movement.
This month tends to be historically bullish for bitcoin in a move that’s colloquially termed the “Santa Claus Rally.” Data from the past eight years shows that bitcoin ended December in the green six times since 2015, running at least 8% to as much as 46% (in the outlier year of 2020).
Seasonality is the tendency of assets to experience regular and predictable changes that recur every calendar year. While it may look random, possible reasons range from profit-taking around tax season in April and May, which causes drawdowns, to the generally bullish November and December, a sign of increased demand ahead of holiday season.
Meanwhile, some traders are now targeting the $120,000 level and above for BTC in the coming year.
“We think bitcoin still has tremendous upside potential and could easily hit the $125k mark by the end of 2025,” Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE, said over Telegram. “While some say the upside has already been priced in over the last month or so, we think the rally is just getting started.”
“This is because it takes time for institutions, family offices, and high-net-worth individuals to warm up to the idea of allocating 1%-3% of their portfolios to bitcoin and crypto as a whole. Once that happens, crypto inflows could skyrocket. And given Trump’s pro-crypto appointments, continued rate cuts, and stimulus spending from China, there are a lot of reasons to be bullish,” Mei added.