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Bitcoin Takes a Breather After Doji Candle in a Cautious Pre-Fed De-Risking

BTC takes a breather after an indecisive Tuesday, as the Fed is expected to cut rates Wednesday while signaling slower easing next year.

Bitcoin (BTC) is taking a breather, experiencing selling pressure after Tuesday’s indecisive price action marked by a Doji candle. This seems to be a classic case of traders de-risking in anticipation of an expected hawkish Fed rate cut later Wednesday.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value traded around $103,750, marking a 2% drop for the day, according to TradingView and CoinDesk data. Prices had surged to a record high of over $108,000 on Tuesday but failed to maintain those gains, ending the UTC day flat. That formed a ‘doji,’ a candlestick pattern that signifies indecision and potential bullish exhaustion when seen at record highs.

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As expected, bitcoin’s decline has resulted in even larger losses for alternative cryptocurrencies, but some majors, such as XRP, SOL, and ETH, are experiencing losses comparable to BTC.

The Fed will announce the rate decision, the interest rate dot plot, projections, and economic forecasts at 14:00 ET. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will be held a half hour later.

The consensus is that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points to the 4.25% to 4.5% range, marking a total easing of 100 basis points since September. But, the dot plot is expected to show fewer rate cuts for next year.

“The risk of slightly stronger near-term growth with the threat of higher inflation – tariffs putting up prices of goods and immigration controls potentially lifting wages and costs in the likes of agriculture, construction and hospitality sectors – means that we expect them to signal only three rate cuts in 2025. Previously, they had suggested four,” analysts at ING said in a note to clients.

“We look for 25bp of cuts per quarter in 2025 with a terminal rate of around 3.75% in the third quarter,” analysts added, noting the possibility of the Fed revising their projections for economic growth and inflation.

These so-called hawkish expectations are likely fueling the de-risking in the crypto market that is looking for reasons to correct, having seen prices for BTC soar from $70,000 to over $100,000 in less than two months.

It’s important to note that fewer rate cuts do not necessarily mean tightening; easing is still on the table. This suggests that the path of least resistance for risk assets remains tilted toward the upside.

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Fed Opens Service That Dramatically Speeds Up U.S. Payments

Some argue it would weaken crypto’s payments use case or form a bridge to a digital dollar.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s controversial instant payments service, FedNow, went live Thursday with 35 banks and credit unions participating, the central bank announced.

Early adopters include JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, with 16 other institutions supporting processing of payments that the Fed argues will offer just-in-time access to paychecks and invoices.

“The Federal Reserve built the FedNow Service to help make everyday payments over the coming years faster and more convenient,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a statement.

Officials including Powell have previously said the real-time payment network is needed to avoid having to depend on private sector alternatives, like the now abandoned stablecoin Diem (previously named Libra) by Marc Zuckerberg’s Meta (previously Facebook) while some have seen it as a step towards a central bank digital currency.

Custodia’s Suit Against Fed Over Denial of Master Account Can Proceed, Court Rules

The crypto-friendly bank was also denied immediate membership with the Federal Reserve, with the court saying Custodia could pursue membership through other channels.

Custodia’s challenge of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s decision to deny the crypto-friendly bank access to the Fed banking services can continue, a U.S. district court ruled Thursday, rejecting a Fed motion to dismiss the case.

The U.S. District Court of Wyoming, however, did reject Custodia’s request that the Fed be compelled to grant it a so-called master account and membership with the Fed, Instead, Custodia must continue its claims via normal channels.

“Custodia Bank will get its day in court,” Patrick Toomey, retired U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, tweeted about the decision on Friday afternoon. Toomey, along with the state of Wyoming, filed amicus briefs to support Custodia’s suit.

Even though the court declined to grant Wyoming-based Custodia’s request, it said that it was only rejecting the request because there was another avenue Custodia could pursue,

“Custodia has stated a plausible claim for relief … against FRBKC [Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas]. However, relief under the Mandamus Act is not available to Custodia against the Board of Directors because the APA (Administrative Procedure Act) provides an adequate remedy,” the ruling said.

The district court also said that if the Kansas City Fed had been alone in denying Custodia its master license, Custodia’s claim would fail. However, the court said Custodia’s claim that the Fed Board of Governors had weighed in on the decision was plausible.

“The alleged occurrence of certain events, and the timing of those events, plausibly suggest the Board of Governors had at least some hand in controlling the outcome of Custodia’s master account application,” the court wrote in its ruling.

In October 2020, Custodia applied to the Kansas City Fed for a master account. Without such an account, banks can’t offer the same services as institutions with such accounts. Then in August the next year, Custodia applied to the Fed Board of Governors for membership, which would subject the bank to the Fed’s oversight and regulations.

Eighteen months later, in January 2023, Custodia was rejected in every single category the Fed assesses, partly because of its crypto friendliness and part because it was a state-chartered bank, not a nationally chartered one.

In its rejection, the central bank claimed Custodia’s decision not to federally insure deposits and Custodia’s dependence on a vibrant crypto market made it a danger to itself and its customers.

Bitcoin, Crypto Prices Brace for Downturn in Coming Liquidity Shock, Observers Say

Improving liquidity conditions so far this year have lifted risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, but the trend is poised to turn once the U.S. debt ceiling is lifted and the Treasury along with the Fed resume tightening, analysts say.

Crypto markets are bracing for a downturn as liquidity tightening resumes after the U.S. debt ceiling is lifted, observers said.

The replenishment of the U.S. Treasury general account and the Federal Reserve (Fed) winding down its balance sheet will remove hundreds of billions of dollars from the financial system, weighing on cryptocurrency prices in the coming months.

Thawing liquidity conditions earlier this year helped lift the prices of risk assets, including equities and digital assets. The market-wide crypto rally propelled bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, to as high as $31,000 before turning into a meme coin speculative frenzy reminiscent of the sugar rush near bull market tops.

The trend, however, is set to turn once U.S. lawmakers approve raising the government’s ability to issue new debt, putting pressure on risky investments.

First, the U.S. Treasury will have to refill its almost completely depleted Treasury General Account (TGA), which means replenishing some $500 billion of cash from the financial system.

“This is likely to especially hit risk assets as they tend to be more sensitive to liquidity conditions than safer plays such as bonds and many groups of equities,” macro analyst Noelle Acheson said.

“The Treasury drawing down its account at the Fed was one of the tailwinds for the market earlier this year, as money that would normally just sit there was put into the economy in the form of government expenditures,” Acheson explained.

“Now, the reverse is likely to happen: the government needs to replenish that account balance by issuing debt which will draw liquidity out of the market and back into the Treasury’s account.”

Refilling the general account coincides with the Fed continuing its quantitative tightening campaign, briefly interrupted in March due to the regional banking crisis, to reduce its bloated balance sheet from propping up the economy during the pandemic.

Macro analyst Lyn Alden called this a “negative double-whammy for liquidity” in a market report.

“The attractiveness of many large liquidity-driven equities is lackluster for the next few months unless or until we get more clarity on forward liquidity conditions,” Alden said. “This is an environment where an investor should know what they own, be prepared for volatility and avoid excessive leverage.”

The debt ceiling resolution bill – if passed in its current form – will also contribute to the negative impact on liquidity, according to Tom Dunleavy, founder of Dunleavy Investment Research.

Some key points of the deal such as curbing non-defense funding, clawing back unspent pandemic relief funds and resuming student loan payments will constrain the available money left for consumers to invest, he explained in a tweet. “Liquidity is going to be very net negative,” Dunleavy added.

The U.S. House of Representatives is poised to vote on raising the debt ceiling Wednesday evening.

Tightening liquidity conditions, decreasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year and the present trading environment with depressed volatility and volumes make crypto markets ripe for a shock, institutional trading platform FalconX wrote in a newsletter.

“This macro scenario (…) makes me believe we could be in a calm-before-the-storm moment for crypto,” David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, said.