For the SEC to defend its denial of Grayscale’s proposal to convert GBTC into an ETF, it would have to withdraw its previous approval of futures-based bitcoin ETFs, which is unlikely, the report said.
It is more likely that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would be forced to approve the spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded-fund (ETF) applications from several asset managers after a federal court ruled that the regulator must review its rejection of Grayscale’s attempt to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF, JPMorgan (JPM) said in a report Friday.
“The most important element of the Grayscale vs. SEC court ruling was that the denial by SEC was arbitrary and capricious because the Commission failed to explain its different treatment of similar products i.e., futures-based bitcoin ETFs,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote. Grayscale and CoinDesk are both owned by Digital Currency Group (DCG).
The court argued that fraud and manipulation in the spot market posed a similar risk to both futures and spot products because the “spot bitcoin market and CME bitcoin futures market are so tightly correlated,” the report said.
JPMorgan notes that the court ruled there was no justification to allow futures-based bitcoin ETFs but deny spot ETFs. That’s highly significant because it implies that for the SEC to defend its denial of Grayscale’s proposal to convert GBTC, “it would have to retroactively withdraw its previous approval of futures-based bitcoin ETFs.”
A retroactive withdrawal would be extremely disruptive and embarrassing for the SEC and therefore appears unlikely, the bank said.
Still, while the Grayscale ruling may bring closer to the eventual approval of a spot bitcoin ETF, “such an approval is unlikely to prove a game changer for the crypto market,” the note said.
Spot bitcoin ETFs have existed for some time outside the U.S., but have failed to attract considerable investor interest, and bitcoin funds overall, both futures-based and physically backed funds, have attracted little investor interest since the second quarter of 2021, the report added.
Spot-based ETFs allow investors to hold their positions indefinitely while eliminating the rollover cost associated with futures ETFs. The crypto market is optimistic that an eventual launch of spot-based ETFs will unlock floodgates to mainstream money.
Read more: SEC Could Prepare Alternative Arguments to Reject Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Berenberg
Interest on the ETF’s cash balances helps offset the cost of rolling from one set of futures to the next, ensuring a low performance discrepancy, the firm said.
İlk ABD bitcoin vadeli işlem bağlantılı borsa yatırım fonunun (ETF) düzenleyicisi olan ProShares, türevlerin ticaretiyle ilgili maliyetlerin izleme hatalarına yol açacağına dair endişelerin asılsız olduğunu ve ürünün ilk günden beri bitcoin’in spot fiyat performansını yakından taklit ettiğini söyledi.
ProShares Bitcoin Strateji Fonu, Ekim 2021’de New York Menkul Kıymetler Borsasında BITO kodu altında işlem görmeye başladı ve yatırımcıların kripto para birimine sahip olmak zorunda kalmadan bitcoin’e (BTC) maruz kalmalarını sağladı. Dünyanın en büyük kripto fonu olan ETF, Chicago Mercantile Exchange’de (CME) listelenen düzenlenmiş ve nakit ödemeli bitcoin vadeli işlemlerine yatırım yapıyor.
From the very beginning, observers speculated BITO and other futures-based ETFs would significantly underperform bitcoin due to costs associated with rolling over, or selling expiring futures contracts and buying the next set. Usually, longer-dated futures contracts trade at a premium to those closer to expiry, a condition known as contango. The contango tends to steepen during bull runs, and the steeper the contango, the higher the costs, and the so-called contango bleed.
“Concerns about the roll costs are misguided; BITO has closely tracked bitcoin’s price since inception,” Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, told CoinDesk in an email interview. “Since its inception (through 7/18), BITO has returned -54.5% compared to -51.5% for bitcoin. And over half of that modest difference is BITO’s fee of 95bps per annum.”
Bitcoin’s recent rally and the resulting widening of contango at the end of June have revived concerns about the roll costs and strengthened calls for spot-based ETFs, which invest directly in bitcoin and eliminate the need to roll over positions. Since June 15, a number of traditional finance giants like BlackRock, Invesco and others have filed applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for spot-based bitcoin ETFs.
According to Hyman, BITO continues to closely track the spot price as the fund’s interest income from cash holdings compensates for the roll costs, which are closely tied to the level of interest rates in the U.S. economy.
“For a financial future with no storage costs, as is the case with the CME bitcoin futures, the futures contract premium should be in the ballpark of the term-equivalent interest rate. The Fed’s raising of the benchmark interest rate by 500 basis points since March 2022 has been a key driver of those premiums, and consequently the roll costs of a bitcoin futures strategy,” Hyman said.
“Here’s the key piece of the puzzle. BITO earns interest on its cash balances which are driven by those same term-equivalent interest rates, which offset the roll costs. The result is close tracking to the price movements of spot bitcoin,” Hyman added.
As Hyman says, one component of futures prices is interest rates, and the U.S. Federal Reserve has lifted its target range to 5%-5.25% to control inflation. Other variables include the price of the underlying asset, storage costs and convenience yield. The CME bitcoin futures are cash-settled, so there also no storage costs.
BITO earns interest from its cash holdings. The interest income is paid out in monthly dividends and covers the roll decay in the fund. BITO has paid dividends six times this year.
20 Temmuz itibarıyla ProShares, diğer varlıklar ve 28 Temmuz ve 25 Ağustos’ta sona eren CME vadeli işlem sözleşmeleriyle birlikte Hazine bonolarını elinde tutuyordu. (ProShares) (ProShares)
Potansiyel spot ETF’lerin yatırımcıları vadeli işlemlere dayalı ürünlerden uzaklaştırıp uzaklaştırmayacağı sorulduğunda Hyman, var olmayan ürünler hakkında spekülasyon yapmanın zor olduğunu söyledi.
Hyman, “BITO’nun performans ve akış geçmişi, bir ETF ve yatırımcı ilgisi dahilinde bir bitcoin vadeli işlem stratejisinin etkinliğinin bir kanıtıdır” dedi.
18 Temmuz itibariyle, ProShares ETF’nin yönetimi altında 1,1 milyar dolarlık varlığa sahipti. Yılbaşından bugüne 336,2 milyon dolarlık giriş gördü. Fon, başlangıcından bu yana 2,2 milyar dolarlık yatırımcı parası biriktirdi.
Piyasa, kurumsal para için taşkın kapaklarının kilidini açmak için spot tabanlı ETF’lerin potansiyel bir lansmanını bekliyor.
Observers call for spot-based bitcoin ETF as the bull market raises cost of pre-expiry rollover of positions for futures-based ETFs.
Bitcoin’in (BTC) son rallisi, vadeli işlem ve vadeli işlem tabanlı borsa yatırım fonları (ETF’ler) tüccarlarını madeni para sahiplerine göre dezavantajlı duruma getiren bir piyasa özelliğiyle ilgili endişeleri yeniden canlandırdı.
Kripto para birimi geçen ayın sonlarında 31.000 doları aşarak bir yılın en yüksek seviyesine ulaştı. Yükselişle birlikte, Chicago-Mercantile Exchange (CME) listesinde yer alan Temmuz vadeli işlem sözleşmesi fiyatları ile artık süresi dolmuş (o zamanki ön ay) Haziran vadeli işlem sözleşmesi fiyatları arasındaki fark, boğa piyasasından bu yana en yüksek boşluk olan yaklaşık 500$’a patladı. TradingView grafik platformundan alınan verilere göre 2021’in son günleri.
The sharp widening of the spread, or the so-called steepening of the contango, has grabbed eyeballs in the crypto market. The spread raises the cost of pre-expiry futures rollover, or shifting of bullish long positions from front-month to next-month contracts, and affects the performance of the futures-based products offered by ProShares, VanEck and others. Observers, therefore, said the prevailing excitement about a potential launch of a spot-based ETF is justified.
Futures have an expiry date, which mandates the rollover of positions ahead of the settlement. When the spread between the front-month and the next-month contract widens, rollovers are characterized by traders selling the expiring contract at a low price and entering the new one at a high price (the exact opposite of buy low and sell high), inadvertently bleeding money.
“We were not surprised to see the level of contango in the bitcoin futures market expand over the past week. The CME Bitcoin Futures Market has historically traded in relatively sharp contango during bull market periods, particularly when people are excited about future events (like an eventual spot bitcoin ETF approval). This level of contango will certainly impact [futures-based ETF] investors,” Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at crypto index fund and ETF provider Bitwise Asset Management, said in an email.
“This generally points to why a spot bitcoin ETF would be superior for most investors vs. a futures-based ETF. People just want to own bitcoin, safely, with no ifs, ands, or buts. A spot-based ETF would achieve that goal,” Hougan added.
The U.S.-based futures ETFs invest in CME-listed bitcoin futures.
The spot-ETF rally
Last month, bigwigs from traditional finance like BlackRock (BLK), Invesco (IVZ), Fidelity, and others filed spot-based bitcoin ETF applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Bitcoin rallied nearly 12% in June.
A spot-based ETF, if approved, will be like SPDR Gold Trust ETF, which owns gold bars. The product will allow investors to hold their positions indefinitely while eliminating the rollover cost associated with futures ETFs and bypassing complexities involved with storing the cryptocurrency in a wallet. Besides, the spot-based ETF will track bitcoin’s spot price more closely than futures-based ETFs.
In other words, the spot-based ETF will be a better investment avenue than futures-based products like ProShares’ Bitcoin Strategy ETF, which have underperformed the cryptocurrency this year. ProShares’ futures-based ETF, which debuted in October 2021, is the world’s largest and most actively-traded futures-based ETF.
While BTC has gained 88% this year, shares in ProShares’ ETF, trading on NYSE under the ticker BITO, are up only 56%. That’s notable a loss of upside for BITO investors. BITO bled more than bitcoin during the 2022 bear market.
“We might expect underperformance vs. holding spot BTC. The cost of carry emphasizes that futures-based ETFs incorporate the effects of either contango, where holders experience lagging performance or backwardation, where holders experience outperformance. This emphasizes that there is a cost to investors to restricting them to just a derivatives-based ETF,” Ryan Kim, Head of Derivatives at institutional crypto derivatives platform FalconX, said.
“The dynamic does contribute to the excitement over spot-based ETFs,” Kim added.
The situation is unlikely to improve if bitcoin continues to rally, brining more buyers to the derivatives market and keeping futures premiums elevated across the different expiries.
Annualized basis in futures contracts with 30, 60, 90, and 120 days to expiration. (FalconX) (FalconX)
As of Wednesday, the basis in bitcoin and ether CME futures or the difference between futures and spot prices was notably higher at the front end (30-day and 60-day) of the futures curve.
“For context, the 30-day annualized BTC basis just hit 19%, which is the highest value since October 2021, when BTC was trading at above $60,000,” Kim said. “The 30- and 60-day futures are the preferred vehicles for many investors, and more so for bitcoin than for ether.”
Ravi Doshi, co-head of trading at Genesis Global Trading, expressed a similar opinion, saying, “the bullish market sentiment has driven up the front-end CME futures basis.”
Doshi’ye göre, vadeli işlem ETF’lerinin uzun vadeli pozisyonlarını Haziran sözleşmesinden Temmuz’a çevirmesi gerektiğinden ve “spreaddeki likidite eksikliği, Temmuz sözleşmesinde vadeli işlem ETF sahiplerine mal olan geçici olarak %23’lük bir yıllık baza yol açtığından, durum geçen hafta daha da kötüleşti. canım.”
