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Here’s Three Reasons Why Bitcoin Futures Set Record Highs Amid Price Surge to $71K

U.S. listed spot ETF inflows continue to break records, as CME open interest spikes in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin (BTC)-tracked futures set a record high open interest (OI) in U.S. dollar terms early Tuesday as the asset broke past $71,000 for the first time since June, data shows.

BTC futures recorded their biggest one-day jump since June 3 with OI jumping over 20,000 BTC, worth $2.5 billion at current prices, to reach almost 600,000 BTC, or $42.6 billion, as of Tuesday.

OI refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as futures or options, that have not been settled. High open interest indicates that there is significant interest in a particular asset. When open interest increases along with rising prices, it suggests new money is coming into the market, indicating a strengthening trend – such as Tuesday’s.

High open interest can lead to increased volatility, especially as contracts near expiration. Traders might rush to close, roll over, or adjust positions, which can lead to significant price movements. Research firm Kaiko said in an X post that while futures showed strong interest from traders, the funding rates for such positions remain well below March highs which indicate tempered demand.

Funding rates in perpetual futures markets are periodic payments made between traders to ensure that the price of the perpetual contract remains close to the spot price of the underlying asset. Traders such as Singapore-based QCP Capital remain bullish on BTC in the near term, expecting price gains to continue in the weeks ahead.

“With rising expectations around a potential Trump victory boosting both stocks and Bitcoin, we believe BTC is well-positioned for medium-term gains,” the firm wrote in a Tuesday broadcast on Telegram.

Reasons why BTC OI has zoomed

Contracts offered on the Chicago Mercentile Exchange (CME) have seen a 9% surge in 24 hours, taking their open interest to 171,700 BTC, worth over $12.22 billion, which gives CME a 30% dominance in the futures open interest market. As they maintain their number one spot in this market.

In mid-October, bitcoin was trading around $67,000 and the OI on CME hit all-time highs in both notional open interest ($12.4 billion) which is the dollar value of the futures contracts and bitcoin denominated futures contracts (179,930 BTC), per Glassnode data.

Second, the funding rate in perpetual markets has also soared in the past 24 hours to 15%, according to Coinglass data, this is one of the highest recorded levels in the past few months, which shows an extreme bias for bullish long trades.

Finally, the third reason can be attributed to the strong inflows from the U.S. listed spot ETFs, which in recent weeks has seen a slight evolution from the institutional basis trade at the start of the year to now more bullish long directional plays.

Since Oct. 16 bitcoin denominated futures contracts peaked on the CME exchange, it has since dropped by over 6%, which has been the opposite for the ETF inflows which have seen a cumulative net inflow of $2.7 billion. The charge has been led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which has seen $2.2 billion of net inflows in the same time period while achieving a new record of holding over 400,000 bitcoin in the ETF.

Earlier in the year it was apparent that the basis trade or the cash and carry arbitrage was taking place which involves taking advantage of the price difference between the bitcoin spot and futures price. The basis trade involves taking a long position on the ETF and then taking a short position on the CME futures bitcoin price. This was one of the reasons bitcoin has been trading in a long sideways range since March, as not all the inflows from the ETFs were directionally long but overall a net neutral strategy.

Checkmate, an analyst, also noted the recent divergence between the CME OI and the ETF inflows.

“We have a divergence between Bitcoin ETF Inflows and CME Open Interest. ETF Inflows are ticking meaningfully higher. CME Open Interest is up, but not as much. GBTC outflows are also minimal. We’re seeing true directional ETF inflows, and less so cash and carry trades,” Checkmate wrote.

The recent purchase of the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) by the Emory University endowment could support Checkmate’s point of view to be a directional long purchase, as one would not expect a University to start executing the basis trade. Emory University would be the first endowment to purchase a bitcoin ETF and while $15 million isn’t a large sum for an institutional investor the narrative and the directional play stand out in a similar fashion to the Wisconsin Pension Fund.

However, Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise, takes the other side of this view: he believes due to the increase in net short-positioning and an increase in CME open interest in the past 24 hours, that the basis trade has already started to pick up, he told CoinDesk in a note.

“There was an increase in net short positioning judging by the change in net non-commercial positioning on CME since early September. This coincided with an overall increase in CME open interest which implies that net there has really been an increase in cash-and-carry trades,” he wrote in a note to CoinDesk. “However, we only have weekly data up to 22/10 from the CFTC, so we don’t have insights into the latest OI change yet”.

Bitnomial Exchange Sues U.S. SEC, Alleging Regulatory Overreach

Bitnomial’s action follows a similar suit filed by Crypto.com on Tuesday.

Crypto exchange Bitnomial filed suit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), saying the regulator overextended its jurisdiction in seeking to regulate a proposed XRP futures contract together with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

In a Thursday filing with the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, the company said the futures fall solely in the CFTC’s remit and the SEC’s involvement would add significantly to the company’s regulatory burden. The exchange self-certified that the XRP futures did not violate the CFTC’s regulations on Aug. 9, it said.

“Bitnomial disagrees with the SEC’s view that XRP is an investment contract and, therefore, a security, and that XRP Futures are thus security futures,” it said in the filing.

Bitnomial’s case alleging SEC overreach follows a similar filing by Crypto.com on Tuesday. In that suit, the exchange said it was responding to an SEC warning that it was considering an enforcement action, and it was taking “a warranted response to the SEC’s regulation by enforcement regime which has hurt more than 50 million American crypto holders.”

First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Trims Thursday’s Inflation-Led Losses

The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Oct. 11, 2024.

This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.

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Following its 4% slide during U.S. hours on Thursday, bitcoin regained some ground to trade above $61,000 on Friday. BTC fell to $59,000 following a U.S. CPI report that showed hotter-than-expected inflation in September, seemingly putting paid to hopes of another 50 basis-point interest-rate cut by the Fed next month. The bounce left BTC about 0.25% higher than 24 hours ago. The broader digital asset market showed stronger gains of 1.65%, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index. XRP and DOGE led the way, adding around 2.5% and 2% respectively.

Donald Trump’s odds of a return to the White House surged to a more than two-month high on Polymarket. Traders are giving the former president a 55.8% shot versus Vice President Kamala Harris’ 43.8% on the prediction market site, where more than $1.6 billion has been wagered on the November election. Trump’s chances have risen to levels last seen days after President Joe Biden said he wouldn’t seek reelection, clearing the way for Harris to take over. Another prediction market, Kalshi, which just recently won permission to list contracts based on U.S. elections, also shows Trump in the lead over Harris: 52% to 48%.

Crypto exchange Bitnomial filed suit against the SEC, saying the regulator overextended its jurisdiction in seeking to regulate a proposed XRP futures contract together with the CFTC. In a Thursday filing with the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, the company said the futures fall solely in the CFTC’s remit and the SEC’s involvement would add significantly to the company’s regulatory burden. The exchange self-certified that the XRP futures did not violate the CFTC’s regulations on Aug. 9, it said. “Bitnomial disagrees with the SEC’s view that XRP is an investment contract and, therefore, a security, and that XRP Futures are thus security futures,” it said in the filing.

Chart of the Day

– Omkar Godbole

Grayscale’s Legal Win Versus SEC Makes Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval More Likely: JPMorgan

For the SEC to defend its denial of Grayscale’s proposal to convert GBTC into an ETF, it would have to withdraw its previous approval of futures-based bitcoin ETFs, which is unlikely, the report said.

It is more likely that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would be forced to approve the spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded-fund (ETF) applications from several asset managers after a federal court ruled that the regulator must review its rejection of Grayscale’s attempt to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF, JPMorgan (JPM) said in a report Friday.

“The most important element of the Grayscale vs. SEC court ruling was that the denial by SEC was arbitrary and capricious because the Commission failed to explain its different treatment of similar products i.e., futures-based bitcoin ETFs,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote. Grayscale and CoinDesk are both owned by Digital Currency Group (DCG).

The court argued that fraud and manipulation in the spot market posed a similar risk to both futures and spot products because the “spot bitcoin market and CME bitcoin futures market are so tightly correlated,” the report said.

JPMorgan notes that the court ruled there was no justification to allow futures-based bitcoin ETFs but deny spot ETFs. That’s highly significant because it implies that for the SEC to defend its denial of Grayscale’s proposal to convert GBTC, “it would have to retroactively withdraw its previous approval of futures-based bitcoin ETFs.”

A retroactive withdrawal would be extremely disruptive and embarrassing for the SEC and therefore appears unlikely, the bank said.

Still, while the Grayscale ruling may bring closer to the eventual approval of a spot bitcoin ETF, “such an approval is unlikely to prove a game changer for the crypto market,” the note said.

Spot bitcoin ETFs have existed for some time outside the U.S., but have failed to attract considerable investor interest, and bitcoin funds overall, both futures-based and physically backed funds, have attracted little investor interest since the second quarter of 2021, the report added.

Spot-based ETFs allow investors to hold their positions indefinitely while eliminating the rollover cost associated with futures ETFs. The crypto market is optimistic that an eventual launch of spot-based ETFs will unlock floodgates to mainstream money.

Read more: SEC Could Prepare Alternative Arguments to Reject Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Berenberg

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ProShares Says Bitcoin ETF Has Matched BTC Price Closely, ‘Roll Cost’ Concerns Are Unwarranted

Interest on the ETF’s cash balances helps offset the cost of rolling from one set of futures to the next, ensuring a low performance discrepancy, the firm said.

İlk ABD bitcoin vadeli işlem bağlantılı borsa yatırım fonunun (ETF) düzenleyicisi olan ProShares, türevlerin ticaretiyle ilgili maliyetlerin izleme hatalarına yol açacağına dair endişelerin asılsız olduğunu ve ürünün ilk günden beri bitcoin’in spot fiyat performansını yakından taklit ettiğini söyledi.

ProShares Bitcoin Strateji Fonu, Ekim 2021’de New York Menkul Kıymetler Borsasında BITO kodu altında işlem görmeye başladı ve yatırımcıların kripto para birimine sahip olmak zorunda kalmadan bitcoin’e (BTC) maruz kalmalarını sağladı. Dünyanın en büyük kripto fonu olan ETF, Chicago Mercantile Exchange’de (CME) listelenen düzenlenmiş ve nakit ödemeli bitcoin vadeli işlemlerine yatırım yapıyor.

From the very beginning, observers speculated BITO and other futures-based ETFs would significantly underperform bitcoin due to costs associated with rolling over, or selling expiring futures contracts and buying the next set. Usually, longer-dated futures contracts trade at a premium to those closer to expiry, a condition known as contango. The contango tends to steepen during bull runs, and the steeper the contango, the higher the costs, and the so-called contango bleed.

“Concerns about the roll costs are misguided; BITO has closely tracked bitcoin’s price since inception,” Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, told CoinDesk in an email interview. “Since its inception (through 7/18), BITO has returned -54.5% compared to -51.5% for bitcoin. And over half of that modest difference is BITO’s fee of 95bps per annum.”

Bitcoin’s recent rally and the resulting widening of contango at the end of June have revived concerns about the roll costs and strengthened calls for spot-based ETFs, which invest directly in bitcoin and eliminate the need to roll over positions. Since June 15, a number of traditional finance giants like BlackRock, Invesco and others have filed applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for spot-based bitcoin ETFs.

According to Hyman, BITO continues to closely track the spot price as the fund’s interest income from cash holdings compensates for the roll costs, which are closely tied to the level of interest rates in the U.S. economy.

“For a financial future with no storage costs, as is the case with the CME bitcoin futures, the futures contract premium should be in the ballpark of the term-equivalent interest rate. The Fed’s raising of the benchmark interest rate by 500 basis points since March 2022 has been a key driver of those premiums, and consequently the roll costs of a bitcoin futures strategy,” Hyman said.

“Here’s the key piece of the puzzle. BITO earns interest on its cash balances which are driven by those same term-equivalent interest rates, which offset the roll costs. The result is close tracking to the price movements of spot bitcoin,” Hyman added.

As Hyman says, one component of futures prices is interest rates, and the U.S. Federal Reserve has lifted its target range to 5%-5.25% to control inflation. Other variables include the price of the underlying asset, storage costs and convenience yield. The CME bitcoin futures are cash-settled, so there also no storage costs.

BITO earns interest from its cash holdings. The interest income is paid out in monthly dividends and covers the roll decay in the fund. BITO has paid dividends six times this year.

Potansiyel spot ETF’lerin yatırımcıları vadeli işlemlere dayalı ürünlerden uzaklaştırıp uzaklaştırmayacağı sorulduğunda Hyman, var olmayan ürünler hakkında spekülasyon yapmanın zor olduğunu söyledi.

Hyman, “BITO’nun performans ve akış geçmişi, bir ETF ve yatırımcı ilgisi dahilinde bir bitcoin vadeli işlem stratejisinin etkinliğinin bir kanıtıdır” dedi.

18 Temmuz itibariyle, ProShares ETF’nin yönetimi altında 1,1 milyar dolarlık varlığa sahipti. Yılbaşından bugüne 336,2 milyon dolarlık giriş gördü. Fon, başlangıcından bu yana 2,2 milyar dolarlık yatırımcı parası biriktirdi.

Piyasa, kurumsal para için taşkın kapaklarının kilidini açmak için spot tabanlı ETF’lerin potansiyel bir lansmanını bekliyor.

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Bitcoin Price Rally Puts Focus on Futures Spread That Underscores Need for Spot ETFs

Observers call for spot-based bitcoin ETF as the bull market raises cost of pre-expiry rollover of positions for futures-based ETFs.

Bitcoin’in (BTC) son rallisi, vadeli işlem ve vadeli işlem tabanlı borsa yatırım fonları (ETF’ler) tüccarlarını madeni para sahiplerine göre dezavantajlı duruma getiren bir piyasa özelliğiyle ilgili endişeleri yeniden canlandırdı.

Kripto para birimi geçen ayın sonlarında 31.000 doları aşarak bir yılın en yüksek seviyesine ulaştı. Yükselişle birlikte, Chicago-Mercantile Exchange (CME) listesinde yer alan Temmuz vadeli işlem sözleşmesi fiyatları ile artık süresi dolmuş (o zamanki ön ay) Haziran vadeli işlem sözleşmesi fiyatları arasındaki fark, boğa piyasasından bu yana en yüksek boşluk olan yaklaşık 500$’a patladı. TradingView grafik platformundan alınan verilere göre 2021’in son günleri.

The sharp widening of the spread, or the so-called steepening of the contango, has grabbed eyeballs in the crypto market. The spread raises the cost of pre-expiry futures rollover, or shifting of bullish long positions from front-month to next-month contracts, and affects the performance of the futures-based products offered by ProShares, VanEck and others. Observers, therefore, said the prevailing excitement about a potential launch of a spot-based ETF is justified.

Futures have an expiry date, which mandates the rollover of positions ahead of the settlement. When the spread between the front-month and the next-month contract widens, rollovers are characterized by traders selling the expiring contract at a low price and entering the new one at a high price (the exact opposite of buy low and sell high), inadvertently bleeding money.

“We were not surprised to see the level of contango in the bitcoin futures market expand over the past week. The CME Bitcoin Futures Market has historically traded in relatively sharp contango during bull market periods, particularly when people are excited about future events (like an eventual spot bitcoin ETF approval). This level of contango will certainly impact [futures-based ETF] investors,” Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at crypto index fund and ETF provider Bitwise Asset Management, said in an email.

“This generally points to why a spot bitcoin ETF would be superior for most investors vs. a futures-based ETF. People just want to own bitcoin, safely, with no ifs, ands, or buts. A spot-based ETF would achieve that goal,” Hougan added.

The U.S.-based futures ETFs invest in CME-listed bitcoin futures.

The spot-ETF rally

Last month, bigwigs from traditional finance like BlackRock (BLK), Invesco (IVZ), Fidelity, and others filed spot-based bitcoin ETF applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Bitcoin rallied nearly 12% in June.

A spot-based ETF, if approved, will be like SPDR Gold Trust ETF, which owns gold bars. The product will allow investors to hold their positions indefinitely while eliminating the rollover cost associated with futures ETFs and bypassing complexities involved with storing the cryptocurrency in a wallet. Besides, the spot-based ETF will track bitcoin’s spot price more closely than futures-based ETFs.

In other words, the spot-based ETF will be a better investment avenue than futures-based products like ProShares’ Bitcoin Strategy ETF, which have underperformed the cryptocurrency this year. ProShares’ futures-based ETF, which debuted in October 2021, is the world’s largest and most actively-traded futures-based ETF.

While BTC has gained 88% this year, shares in ProShares’ ETF, trading on NYSE under the ticker BITO, are up only 56%. That’s notable a loss of upside for BITO investors. BITO bled more than bitcoin during the 2022 bear market.

“We might expect underperformance vs. holding spot BTC. The cost of carry emphasizes that futures-based ETFs incorporate the effects of either contango, where holders experience lagging performance or backwardation, where holders experience outperformance. This emphasizes that there is a cost to investors to restricting them to just a derivatives-based ETF,” Ryan Kim, Head of Derivatives at institutional crypto derivatives platform FalconX, said.

“The dynamic does contribute to the excitement over spot-based ETFs,” Kim added.

The situation is unlikely to improve if bitcoin continues to rally, brining more buyers to the derivatives market and keeping futures premiums elevated across the different expiries.

As of Wednesday, the basis in bitcoin and ether CME futures or the difference between futures and spot prices was notably higher at the front end (30-day and 60-day) of the futures curve.

“For context, the 30-day annualized BTC basis just hit 19%, which is the highest value since October 2021, when BTC was trading at above $60,000,” Kim said. “The 30- and 60-day futures are the preferred vehicles for many investors, and more so for bitcoin than for ether.”

Ravi Doshi, co-head of trading at Genesis Global Trading, expressed a similar opinion, saying, “the bullish market sentiment has driven up the front-end CME futures basis.”

Doshi’ye göre, vadeli işlem ETF’lerinin uzun vadeli pozisyonlarını Haziran sözleşmesinden Temmuz’a çevirmesi gerektiğinden ve “spreaddeki likidite eksikliği, Temmuz sözleşmesinde vadeli işlem ETF sahiplerine mal olan geçici olarak %23’lük bir yıllık baza yol açtığından, durum geçen hafta daha da kötüleşti. canım.”