Gold has a significantly higher volatility ratio than bitcoin in 2024, according to analysis by Goldman Sachs.
Bitcoin (BTC) has surged over 40% this year, outshining major equity indices, fixed-income securities, gold and even oil, which recently rose on the back of geopolitical tensions.
However, according to data tracked by Goldman Sachs, its stellar performance in absolute terms is not sufficient to compensate for its volatility.
Bitcoin’s year-to-date return to volatility ratio is under 10%, significantly lower than gold’s industry-leading risk-adjusted return of nearly 20%. The ratio gauges the return an investment generates per unit of risk/volatility. The yellow metal has gained 28% in absolute terms.
In fact, Ethereum’s native token ether, Japan’s TOPIX index, and the S&P GSCI Energy Index are the only non-fixed income growth-sensitive investments with return to volatility ratios lower than bitcoin, said Goldman.
That relatively low risk-adjusted performance validates crypto skeptics’ long-held view that bitcoin is too volatile to become a safe haven like gold.
It also helps explain why gold rose and bitcoin tumbled alongside equity markets last week after Iran launched missiles at Israel, ratcheting up tensions in the Middle East.
The low risk-adjusted returns make directional bets unattractive and likely explain the popularity of the bitcoin cash and carry arbitrage among traditional institutions. The arbitrage strategy allows traders to bypass price volatility risks while profiting from price discrepancies between spot and futures markets.
The initiative created digital versions of gilts, eurobonds and gold on the Canton Network to test complex financial transactions on blockchain rails.
Real-world asset tokenization company Digital Asset said Tuesday that it completed a pilot initiative to tokenize U.K. bonds (gilts), Eurobonds, and gold for financial transactions using the Canton Network protocol.
Major securities settlement provider Euroclear, the World Gold Council and global law firm Clifford Chance also participated in the process, alongside with other banks, investors, custodians and a central securities depository, the press release said.
Tokenization refers to the process of converting real-world assets (RWA) such as bonds, real estate, or commodities like gold into digital tokens on blockchain rails. These tokens represent ownership or control over the asset, allowing it to be traded more easily and quickly in a digital format, while still preserving the value of the underlying property. Reports by Boston Consulting Group and 21Shares forecast over $10 trillion of tokenized assets by the end of the decade in their optimistic scenarios, while McKinsey predicted $2 trillion by then in its base case.
In the case of this pilot, which ran between June and July, the project created digital representations of gilts, Eurobonds, and gold to be used as collateral with greater transparency, faster transfers and around-the-clock, near-instantaneous settlements between parties, without the delays associated with traditional financial rails.
“Our work with the pilot participants has demonstrated that tokenized assets can be used with immediate effect to meet intraday margin calls outside of normal settlement cycles, processing times, and time zones,” said Kelly Mathieson, chief business development officer at Digital Asset. It also demonstrated how the ledger can serve as the legal record and has validated the secured party’s control over the digital twin and real-world assets received as margin or collateral in the event of a counterparty default.”
Tokenized gold also offered notable benefits, said Mike Oswin, global head of market structure and innovation at the World Gold Council. By converting physical gold into “Standard Gold Units” (SGU), the pilot demonstrated how the precious metal can be used more seamlessly as collateral asset in financial transactions.
“This removes traditional barriers like storage limitations,” said Mike Oswin, global head of market structure and innovation at The World Gold Council.
The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Oct. 2, 2024.
This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.
Latest Prices
CoinDesk 20 Index: 1,937.99 -6.61%
Bitcoin (BTC): $61,262.66 -3.99%
Ether (ETH): $2,459.36 -6.58%
S&P 500: 5,708.75 -0.93%
Gold: $2,651.59 -0.33%
Nikkei 225: 37,808.76 -2.18%
Top Stories
Bitcoin reclaimed $61,000 after dropping as low as $60,300 on Tuesday amid an acute sharpening of tensions in the Middle East. Iran fired around 200 ballistic missiles in retaliation for Israel’s recent attacks on Hezbollah, designated a terror group by more than 60 countries and organizations. Polymarket bettors are giving a 49% chance that Israel will retaliate against Iran by the end of the week. Bitcoin’s slide dented hopes of a rally to kick off October, a traditionally bullish month for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. BTC is currently over 4% lower in the last 24 hours, while the broader digital asset market has lost 6%, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index.
Some observers have noted the differing performances of bitcoin and gold as a measurement of the two assets’ respective maturities. Gold, traditionally seen as a risk-off asset, gained 0.8% in the aftermath of Iran’s attack on Israel while BTC lost 4%, despite often being referred to as a form of digital gold. “Gold is a much more mature asset, with a 5,000 year history as a store of value, so there’s not much room left for incremental network effects,” Presto Research said. “BTC [has] only a 15-year history. This means it’s in the early stages of mainstream adoption, and its narrative is still poorly understood.” At the time of writing, gold is 0.3% lower in the last 24 hours at $2,652.56 per ounce.
Crypto futures saw over $450 million in long liquidations in the past 24 hours as the bitcoin plunge led to losses among major tokens. CoinGlass data shows that bitcoin traders betting on higher prices lost more than $122 million, while bets on ether lost nearly $100 million. Smaller altcoins recorded over $85 million in liquidations – the most since July – with memecoin PEPE posting an unusually high $10 million. The data shows that nearly 86% of all futures bets were bullish. Traders were positioning for higher prices in the weeks ahead as October traditionally favors BTC, with negative returns only twice since 2013.
With both assets leading the market, here’s a closer look at the factors driving their remarkable performance.
In the past five days, bitcoin (BTC) has surged 7%, breaking through $64,000 for the first time since Aug. 26. Gold, for its part, has reached all-time highs on over 30 occasions this year, topping $2,600 an ounce. These remarkable performances mark the first time since bitcoin’s inception in 2009 that both are the top-performing assets of the year, according to Charlie Bilello, the chief market strategist at Creative Planning, an investment management and financial planning firm.
Year-to-date, gold has risen 27%, surpassing its 2020 performance of 25%. The last time it did better was 2007. What is driving this impressive rise?
Gold has historically been seen as a hedge against monetary debasement and global uncertainty, and current economic conditions suggest it is again fulfilling this role. The recent surge in gold prices can be attributed to these factors. Notably, gold began its rally before the significant monetary debasement triggered by the Covid pandemic in 2020, while bitcoin emerged as a star performer in late 2020 and into 2021. With bitcoin now just 14% away from its all-time high, is it playing catch-up once again?
A closer examination reveals that bitcoin’s price tends to move in line with the Federal Reserve’s net liquidity metric. This measure, calculated by subtracting reverse repo and the Treasury General Account from the Fed’s balance sheet, indicates that bitcoin tends to follow liquidity trends.
Both bitcoin and net liquidity bottomed out toward the end of 2022, coinciding with the FTX collapse. Since then, bitcoin has steadily risen alongside an increase in net liquidity, which now exceeds $6 trillion.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is currently at $7.1 trillion, and although it is still engaging in quantitative tightening, the pace has slowed. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023 led to a $1.6 trillion reduction in the balance sheet, bringing it back to levels seen during the initial phases of quantitative easing in response to the pandemic.
The draining of reverse repo balances, now just over $300 billion, releases liquidity back into the financial system. This is stimulative, increasing the availability of funds for lending, investment, and overall economic activity.
Looking more broadly, the combined balance sheets of the world’s 15 largest central banks – including the U.S., European Union, Japan and China – approach $31 trillion.
While this number alone is not the focus, the trend shows a global resurgence in central bank balance sheets from about $30 trillion in July. This increase in liquidity is particularly stimulative for bitcoin, which tends to mirror liquidity trends.
Adding to this, just Wednesday the Fed cut the interest rate by 50 basis points, further supporting the rise of bitcoin and gold.
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