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Ethereum’s Ether Headed to $5K as Activity, Institutional Demand Grows

“According to ETH’s realized price—the average price at which holders purchased their ETH—the current upper limit for ETH’s price stands around $5.2k,” CryptoQuant said.

Investor demand, onchain metrics and network activity are setting up ether (ETH) to reach a $5,000 level for the first time, CryptoQuant analysts said in a report.

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Ether spot ETFs posted a 13-day inflow streak on Wednesday to reach nearly $2 billion in cumulative net inflows. The funds attracted their first billion from July to early December, but SoSoValue data shows that they needed only five trading days to capture the next billion.

Total daily transactions hovered around the 6.5 million to 7.5 million level in the past few months, compared to about 5 million through 2023, indicative of higher network activity.

Meanwhile, the total supply of ETH has reached its highest level since April 2023, but the amount of ETH burned via fees has been growing since September. The total supply of ETH has reached 120 million, marking the highest level since April 2023.

Burns refers to permanently removing tokens from circulating supply by sending them to a wallet that no one controls. As the network sees higher activity and demand, the burn rate increases, limiting the growth of ETH supply and creating deflationary pressure.

Higher network activity on Ethereum signifies increased usage and demand for the network’s capabilities, reflecting the growing adoption of decentralized applications. Moreover, it leads to greater ETH burned via transaction fees, which can create deflationary pressure on the total ETH supply, as the burn rate can outpace issuance during periods of high activity.

These factors cumulatively set up ETH to retake its all-time highs from 2021 and beyond.

“ETH could be heading above $5k if current demand and supply dynamics continue,” CryptoQuant said. “According to ETH’s realized price—the average price at which holders purchased their ETH—the current upper limit for ETH’s price stands around $5.2k.”

“This upper limit marked the top for ETH in the 2021 bull run. However, as new market participants buy ETH at higher prices, this upper price band continues to rise,” they added.

The recent surge in Ethereum’s price has significantly increased the total value of assets locked within its ecosystem, reaching $77 billion on Thursday, the highest level since January 2022.

The lion’s share of these assets is managed by just three key applications: Lido, which dominates with over $38 billion in staked ether, making it the largest liquid staking protocol; Aave, with $19 billion spread across various assets, functioning as a lending platform; and EigenLayer, a restaking platform, holding $18 billion.

The Ethereum network has witnessed a notable uptick in several key metrics in November. There’s been an increase in revenue, transaction fees, new wallet creations, and on-chain volume, all indicating heightened activity when compared to the quieter months from May to September, as a CoinDesk analysis previously noted.

Ether largely underperformed bitcoin and other major tokens since 2022 but saw a return in bullish sentiment after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential elections in November, rekindling hopes for a DeFi bull run among investors.

Trump’s campaign has signaled a potential softening of regulatory pressures on cryptocurrencies, which could ease operations for DeFi platforms within the country. This anticipation has been a catalyst for increased demand for ETH and has propelled the growth of major DeFi tokens since early November.

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State of the Union: Zelenskyy’s attempts to drum up new support

This edition of State of the Union focuses on the crucial visit of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the U.S., the latest economic forecast by the EBRD and attempts to support the struggling German car industry.

For weeks now, Europe is anxiously looking at its number one economic powerhouse, Germany – to be more precise: at the country’s ailing car manufacturers, some of Germany’s industrial pillars.

A serious car crisis in the Federal Republic, triggered by a quasi-collapse of the electrical vehicle market, could have severe consequences elsewhere in the EU.

Threats of historic job cuts, plant closures at Volkswagen and plunging earnings at Mercedes-Benz and BMW prompted emergency talks at Berlin’s economy ministry this week.

But given strained federal finances and fights with China over tariffs, the government’s toolbox is rather empty.

Nonetheless, economy minister Robert Habeck expressed his willingness to help but excluded quick fixes: “Everyone has said that planning is the most important thing. And that means long-term planning. Not a flash-in-the-pan action, because this only has the effect of pumping up the market again in the short term and then possibly collapsing again.”

Germany is in the uncomfortable position today to be forced to re-orient its entire manufacturing sector that depended on cheap Russian energy.

You can already hear Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy shouting: “I told you so!”

Zelenskyy was at the United Nations this week to drum up support for what he called his “victory plan”.

He also reacted to pleas from the European far-left and far-right to negotiate with Russia:

“We know some in the world want to talk to Putin. We know it. To meet, to talk, to speak. But what could they possibly hear from him? That he’s upset because we are exercising our right to defend our people, or that he wants to keep the war and terror going just so no one thinks he was wrong.”

How the Ukrainian economy keeps suffering from the war was detailed this week by the latest outlook from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

The EBRD covers not only Ukraine, but large parts of eastern Europe and central Asia. The bank’s findings are an important bellwether for the global economy.

We spoke to Beata Javorcik, the chief economist of the EBRD.

Euronews: So, your latest Regional Economic Prospects report is called “Along the adjustment path” – that sounds like a friendly way of saying “It’s disappointing”. What do the economies you invest in need to adjust to?

Javorcik: Well, the situation in Europe remains quite challenging. We continue to have very high prices of energy. Particularly the price of natural gas is five times as high as in the US. The demand for exports, particularly from Germany, is muted. Given the difficult situation of the German economy and, finally, the costs of borrowing continue to be high, there is this extra risk premium, this extra interest rate. Countries in the regions had to pay when the war in Ukraine started. And this risk premium continues to be there.

Euronews: On the upside are a decline in inflation and an increase in real wages. What exactly happened?

Javorcik: Well, by historical standards we have seen a very fast disinflation process, though of course the adjustment is not done yet. Inflation remains above the pre-COVID level, but on the positive side we have managed to avoid a hard landing. So, this fight with inflation has come without very big unpleasant effects in terms of unemployment. As the inflation episode started, we saw a big decline in real wages, but then real wages started catching up. That was visible in the last few months in the last year. They are not yet back to the pre-COVID trend, but they have certainly caught up in a significant way.

Euronews: I guess there are still some remaining inflationary pressures – what are they?

Javorcik: Inflation still remains high in some countries, such as Turkey or Egypt, still in high double digits. And depreciation of domestic currencies, which has made imports more expensive, has contributed to further inflation.

Euronews: One country is still in the spotlight: Ukraine. How are they coping with the ongoing war economically?

Javorcik: Well, despite the war early this year, so in the first quarter, Ukrainian economy managed to grow very fast. The bleak Black Sea corridor allowed Ukraine to export grain as well as metals and ores. But then this heavy bombing and destruction of electricity infrastructure happened. And that made the situation very difficult. There are rolling blackouts. There are shortages of electricity. The country is importing electricity from Europe, but it comes at a higher cost. And that’s weighing down on the economy.

Bitcoin on Track for Record Sideways Action, With Eyes on November Elections as Bullish Catalyst

Bitcoin’s boring price action, characterized by continued accumulation by small investors, is being attributed to several reasons. including the U.S. election uncertainty and renewed uptick in the U.S. Treasury yields.

Bitcoin is two weeks away from marking its longest-ever period in a sideways market range since its April halving, demoralizing bulls positioned for a bigger rally in the final quarter of this year.

“285 days have passed since the bitcoin halving,” CryptoQuant founder Ki Young-Ju said in an X post Friday. “If there is no bull market in 14 days, this will mark the longest sideways post-halving in history.”

Halvings happen about every four years and decrease the block rewards to miners. Bitcoin halving has always been associated with bull rallies, with asset prices increasing by several hundred percent in the months following previous events.

Prices tend to rise with fewer new bitcoin in the open market as long as demand remains constant or increases. BTC jumped above $73,000 to new lifetime highs ahead of the April 14 halving – with some targeting a continued rally to as high as $160,000 by the end of this year. However, prices have largely fluctuated in the $59,000 to $65,000 range since then, nearing a 300-day sideways action record from 2016.

Bitcoin’s boring price action, characterized by continued accumulation by small investors, is being attributed to several reasons, including the U.S. election uncertainty and renewed uptick in the U.S. Treasury yields.

“The higher bond yield move and SPX at record highs are helping to push USD higher, but it is coming at the expense of crypto, where BTC is back to hovering at around the 60k level again,” shared Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, in a Telegram message to CoinDesk on Friday.

“Finally, defunct Mt. Gox’s fresh announcement that it has extended its repayment deadline by a year to Oct 2025 might help to alleviate some supply pressures in the short-run, but it appears that BTC will be in a holding pattern here heading into the final weeks of the election,” Fan added.

Republican candidate Donald Trump is viewed as crypto friendly. He is associated with the new decentralized finance project World Liberty Finance, while the Democratic party is considered less friendly toward the market. A Republican victory is widely expected to fuel a higher Bitcoin move.

Markets often enter a sideways phase where traders and investors reassess their positions, leading to a balance between buying and selling pressures.

Bitcoin would need to break and remain above the $69,000 level to be considered a bullish breakout above the current range, as per CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole. A breakout would mean a resumption of the broader uptrend from October 2023 lows and shift focus to $100,000, a level anticipated by options traders.

Sideways movement can be interpreted as periods of accumulation (where investors slowly buy up supply without moving the price much) or distribution (where they sell off their holdings in a similar controlled manner). This typically leads to a period of high volatility.

Bitcoin is coming out of a seasonally bearish period of August and Septermber, where investors do not make big moves, to a historically bullish October. A CoinDesk analysis shows most gains in October arise in the second half of the month – usually after October 16.

But market strains remain. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) earlier this week charged multiple market-making and trading firms on consecutive days – igniting debate on whether the crypto market could face more trouble in the weeks before the November elections.

(Omkar Godbole contributed insights.)

MicroStrategy’s ‘NAV Premium’ Hits Highest Since 2021

The stock has gained 4% since bitcoin hit an all-time high in March, while bitcoin itself has declined 16%.

Disclosure: The author of this story owns shares in MicroStrategy (MSTR).

Shares of self-described Bitcoin Development Company MicroStrategy (MSTR) continue to advance relative to the price of bitcoin (BTC), expanding the premium to the value of its holdings to the highest level in more than three years.

The company’s so-called net asset value (NAV) premium is calculated by dividing MSTR’s market capitalization by the value of its bitcoin stack, and it has risen to roughly 2.5, according to MSTR-tracker, the highest level since February 2021. At current pricing, MicroStrategy has a market cap of around $37.14 billion, with its 252,220 BTC valued at $15.1 billion.

Not only is the NAV multiple at its highest level for years, but dividing the MicroStrategy stock price by the bitcoin price totals 0.0030. That’s the highest ratio since the company’s adoption of bitcoin started in August 2020.

MicroStrategy has outperformed bitcoin in 2024

When the spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds launched on Jan. 11, there was much deliberation beforehand about how bitcoin-related equities, such as MicroStrategy, would perform due to the huge expectations of the ETFs.

However, since the launch of the ETFs, MicroStrategy stock has gained more than 240%, making a new record high on Oct. 8. That’s about 8 times better than the performance of bitcoin, which is lower by 16% since hitting its own record all the way back in March.

Explaining the premium

Since adopting bitcoin as a balance sheet asset in August 2020, MicroStrategy has aggressively leveraged financial instruments such as at-the-market equity offerings (ATM) and convertible senior notes to raise capital to steadily boost its coin stash. As a result, the bitcoin per share has continued to increase, which is accretive for shareholders.

Bitcoin per share can be defined as the amount of bitcoin that each outstanding share of MicroStrategy equates to, which is currently at 0.0012.

In both instances, equity financing and debt financing involve shareholder dilution. The share count for debt financing increases once the convertible debt is converted into equity. Meanwhile, equity offerings involve shareholder dilution each time shares are sold through the ATM program. However, the important part is whether the bitcoin holdings can grow faster than the shareholder dilution, and that’s been the case over the last four years.

A new key performance indicator (KPI) coined by MicroStrategy is the “Bitcoin Yield,” which the company defines as the percent change period-to-period of the ratio between the company’s bitcoin holdings and its Assumed Diluted Shares Outstanding.” This metric increased to 5.1% for the second quarter, up from 4.4% three months earlier.

With MicroStrategy showing no signs of stopping this aggressive accumulation strategy and investors seeking greater returns than holding bitcoin itself, the NAV premium could in theory continue over a long period.

Bitcoin Price Rally Puts Focus on Futures Spread That Underscores Need for Spot ETFs

Observers call for spot-based bitcoin ETF as the bull market raises cost of pre-expiry rollover of positions for futures-based ETFs.

Bitcoin’in (BTC) son rallisi, vadeli işlem ve vadeli işlem tabanlı borsa yatırım fonları (ETF’ler) tüccarlarını madeni para sahiplerine göre dezavantajlı duruma getiren bir piyasa özelliğiyle ilgili endişeleri yeniden canlandırdı.

Kripto para birimi geçen ayın sonlarında 31.000 doları aşarak bir yılın en yüksek seviyesine ulaştı. Yükselişle birlikte, Chicago-Mercantile Exchange (CME) listesinde yer alan Temmuz vadeli işlem sözleşmesi fiyatları ile artık süresi dolmuş (o zamanki ön ay) Haziran vadeli işlem sözleşmesi fiyatları arasındaki fark, boğa piyasasından bu yana en yüksek boşluk olan yaklaşık 500$’a patladı. TradingView grafik platformundan alınan verilere göre 2021’in son günleri.

The sharp widening of the spread, or the so-called steepening of the contango, has grabbed eyeballs in the crypto market. The spread raises the cost of pre-expiry futures rollover, or shifting of bullish long positions from front-month to next-month contracts, and affects the performance of the futures-based products offered by ProShares, VanEck and others. Observers, therefore, said the prevailing excitement about a potential launch of a spot-based ETF is justified.

Futures have an expiry date, which mandates the rollover of positions ahead of the settlement. When the spread between the front-month and the next-month contract widens, rollovers are characterized by traders selling the expiring contract at a low price and entering the new one at a high price (the exact opposite of buy low and sell high), inadvertently bleeding money.

“We were not surprised to see the level of contango in the bitcoin futures market expand over the past week. The CME Bitcoin Futures Market has historically traded in relatively sharp contango during bull market periods, particularly when people are excited about future events (like an eventual spot bitcoin ETF approval). This level of contango will certainly impact [futures-based ETF] investors,” Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at crypto index fund and ETF provider Bitwise Asset Management, said in an email.

“This generally points to why a spot bitcoin ETF would be superior for most investors vs. a futures-based ETF. People just want to own bitcoin, safely, with no ifs, ands, or buts. A spot-based ETF would achieve that goal,” Hougan added.

The U.S.-based futures ETFs invest in CME-listed bitcoin futures.

The spot-ETF rally

Last month, bigwigs from traditional finance like BlackRock (BLK), Invesco (IVZ), Fidelity, and others filed spot-based bitcoin ETF applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Bitcoin rallied nearly 12% in June.

A spot-based ETF, if approved, will be like SPDR Gold Trust ETF, which owns gold bars. The product will allow investors to hold their positions indefinitely while eliminating the rollover cost associated with futures ETFs and bypassing complexities involved with storing the cryptocurrency in a wallet. Besides, the spot-based ETF will track bitcoin’s spot price more closely than futures-based ETFs.

In other words, the spot-based ETF will be a better investment avenue than futures-based products like ProShares’ Bitcoin Strategy ETF, which have underperformed the cryptocurrency this year. ProShares’ futures-based ETF, which debuted in October 2021, is the world’s largest and most actively-traded futures-based ETF.

While BTC has gained 88% this year, shares in ProShares’ ETF, trading on NYSE under the ticker BITO, are up only 56%. That’s notable a loss of upside for BITO investors. BITO bled more than bitcoin during the 2022 bear market.

“We might expect underperformance vs. holding spot BTC. The cost of carry emphasizes that futures-based ETFs incorporate the effects of either contango, where holders experience lagging performance or backwardation, where holders experience outperformance. This emphasizes that there is a cost to investors to restricting them to just a derivatives-based ETF,” Ryan Kim, Head of Derivatives at institutional crypto derivatives platform FalconX, said.

“The dynamic does contribute to the excitement over spot-based ETFs,” Kim added.

The situation is unlikely to improve if bitcoin continues to rally, brining more buyers to the derivatives market and keeping futures premiums elevated across the different expiries.

As of Wednesday, the basis in bitcoin and ether CME futures or the difference between futures and spot prices was notably higher at the front end (30-day and 60-day) of the futures curve.

“For context, the 30-day annualized BTC basis just hit 19%, which is the highest value since October 2021, when BTC was trading at above $60,000,” Kim said. “The 30- and 60-day futures are the preferred vehicles for many investors, and more so for bitcoin than for ether.”

Ravi Doshi, co-head of trading at Genesis Global Trading, expressed a similar opinion, saying, “the bullish market sentiment has driven up the front-end CME futures basis.”

Doshi’ye göre, vadeli işlem ETF’lerinin uzun vadeli pozisyonlarını Haziran sözleşmesinden Temmuz’a çevirmesi gerektiğinden ve “spreaddeki likidite eksikliği, Temmuz sözleşmesinde vadeli işlem ETF sahiplerine mal olan geçici olarak %23’lük bir yıllık baza yol açtığından, durum geçen hafta daha da kötüleşti. canım.”

Bitcoin Could Rally to $125K by End-2024: Matrixport

The forecast is consistent with bitcoin’s tendency to chalk out sharp gains in the months after the mining reward halves. The fourth halving is due early next year.

Geçen yılın sonlarında bitcoin’de (BTC) yükselişe geçen birkaç firmadan biri olan kripto hizmetleri sağlayıcısı Matrixport, şimdi önde gelen kripto para biriminin 2024’ün sonuna kadar 125.000 dolara kadar yükselmesini bekliyor.

Tahmin, fiyatlar en az bir yıldır ilk kez 12 ayın en yüksek seviyesini belirleyerek ayı piyasasının sona erdiğini teyit ettiğinde, piyasa değerinde meteorik bir artış içeren çok aylık bir boğa piyasasının ortaya çıktığını gösteren verilere dayanmaktadır.

Bu sinyal, fiyatların Haziran 2022’den bu yana en yüksek seviye olan 31.000 $’ı aşmasının ardından geçen ayın sonlarında tetiklendi. Önceki sinyaller Ağustos 2012, Aralık 2015, Mayıs 2019 ve Ağustos 2020’de gerçekleşti ve sonraki yıllarda fiyatlar yükseldi.

“On June 22, 2023, bitcoin made a new one-year high, marking the first time in a year. This signal has historically indicated the end of bear markets and the start of new crypto bull markets,” Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at Matrixport, said in a report shared with CoinDesk.

“If history is any guide, bitcoin prices could climb by +123% over twelve months and by +310% over eighteen months – based on the average return of the signals triggered in 2015, 2019 and 2020. That would lift prices to $65,539 in twelve months and $125,731 over eighteen months,” Thielen added.

Thielen ignored the 2012 signal and the subsequent 5,285% price rise in 2013, calling it an “epic, out-of-proportion” bull market.

CoinDesk verilerine göre Bitcoin, basın zamanında 30.700 dolar civarında el değiştirdi.

Matrixport’un görüşü, bitcoin’in madencilik ödülü yarılandıktan sonraki 12-18 ay içinde keskin yükseliş trendleri belirleme eğilimiyle tutarlı. Blok başına ödenen yeni madeni paraları 6,5 BTC’den 3,25 BTC’ye düşürecek olan dördüncü halving, gelecek yıl Mart/Nisan aylarında gerçekleşecek.

Kriptoda İngilizce Terimler: Coin Kısaltmaları Nedir?

Kriptoda İngilizce terimler ve birtakım kısaltmalar bu sektörün jargonunu oluşturur.

Kriptoda İngilizce terimler ve birtakım kısaltmalar bu sektörün jargonunu oluşturur. Ancak bu sektöre ilgili olan kripto para yatırımcılarının birçoğu henüz bazı kısaltılmış terimlerin ne anlama geldiğini bilmeyebilirler.

Kripto para birimlerinin yükselişiyle birlikte, bu sektöre özgü olan jargon da hızla gelişti. Kriptoda İngilizce terimler ve birtakım kısaltmalar, bu alanda çalışanlar ve yatırımcılar arasında ortak bir dil oluşturdu. Örneğin, “HODL” (Hold On for Dear Life), kripto varlıklarını uzun vadeli tutma stratejisini ifade ederken, “FOMO” (Fear Of Missing Out) terimi ise kaçırma korkusuyla hızlı bir şekilde yatırım yapmayı ifade eder. Ayrıca, “ICO” (Initial Coin Offering), bir projenin kripto para birimiyle fon toplama yöntemini ifade ederken, “dApp” (Decentralized Application) terimi merkezi olmayan uygulamaları tanımlar. Bu terimler ve kısaltmalar, kriptoda çalışanlar ve yatırımcılar arasında iletişimi kolaylaştırırken, aynı zamanda sektördeki hızlı değişimlere ayak uydurabilmek için önemli bir bilgi birikimini temsil eder.

Biz de bu mantıktan yola çıkarak kriptoda İngilizce kısaltma terimlerini sizler için derledik.

Kriptoda İngilizce Kısaltmaları Nedir?

Price Action / PA = Fiyatın Aksiyonu

Higher Time Frame / HTF = Yüksek Zaman Dilimi

Lower Time Frame / LTF = Düşük Zaman Dilimi

Middle Time Frame / MTF = Ortanca Zaman Dilimi

Weekly Open / WO = Haftalık Açılış

Previous Weekly Open / PWO = Önceki Haftalık Açılış

Monthly Open / MO = Aylık Açılış

Yearly Open / YO = Yıllık Açılış

Daily High, Weekly High = Günlük En Yüksek Fiyat, Haftalık En Yüksek Fiyat

Daily Low, Weekly Low = Günlük En Düşük Fiyat, Haftalık En Düşük Fiyat

Market Structure Break / MSB = Market Yapısı Kırılımı

Return to Origin / RTO = Başlangıca Dönüş

Back to Base / BTB = Başlangıca Dönüş

Order Block = Emir Bloğu

Liquidity = Likidite

Equal = Eşit

aka / Also known as = Bir diğer deyişle

Retracement = Düzeltme

Pullback = Geri çekilme

Reversal = Geri Dönüş

Swing = Salınım

Breakout/ Expansion = Kırma / Genişleme

Consolidation = Sağlamlaştırma, Kuvvetlendirme

Accumulation = Toplama

Distribution = Dağıtma

Mitigation = Hafifletme, Azaltma

Optimal Trade Entry / OTE = Optimal Trade’e Girişi

Risk:Reward = Risk:Ödül

Indecision Candle = Kararsızlık Mumu

Supply & Demand = Arz & Talep

Imbalance = Dengesizlik

Void = Boşluk

Old High/Low = Eski High/Low

Relative = Yakın

Range = Aralık

Equilibrium / EQ = Denge, Orta Nokta

Bitcoin Posts Biggest Weekly Loss in Five Months as Dollar Liquidity Declines, #Yorkbet #prizmabet #1xbet #Betebet Debt Ceiling Fears Return

The cost of insuring against a potential U.S. government default in the next 12 months soared to record highs last week.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced selling pressure in the week ended April 23 as bond yields rose and the U.S. dollar liquidity declined.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value fell by 9% to $27,600, registering its largest single-week percentage loss since early November, according to veri from TradingView and CoinDesk. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose by six basis points (bps) to 3.58%, its second straight weekly gain, denting the appeal of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The USD Liquidity Conditions Index, an indicator tracking the greenback’s supply in the monetary system, slipped to $6.13 trillion, reaching the lowest in over a month, according to veri source TradingView. Besides, traders priced in a higher probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) continuing its tightening cycle with a 25 basis point rate hike in May.

Since 2021, bitcoin and the wider crypto market have closely tracked local peaks and troughs in the dollar liquidity index. Bitcoin rose to its the-then high of $28,000 in the first half of March as the Federal Reserve (Fed) opened liquidity taps to contain the banking crisis, pushing the dollar liquidity index higher from $5.82 trillion to $6.35 trillion.

“In the absence of encouraging signs on the monetary liquidity front, BTC continued to drift down over the week after its sharp drop on Monday, dragging other large-cap crypto assets with it,” Noelle Acheson, the author of popular Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter wrote in the weekend edition of the newsletter.

“BTC – while being an ‘insurance’ asset that should outperform when other asset groups are suffering – is still heavily impacted by the overall macro mood, which will largely be driven by monetary liquidity expectations,” Acheson added.

According to Dessislava Laneva, macro analyst at Paris-based crypto veri provider Kaiko, bitcoin and financial markets, in general, may see increased price turbulence in the near term, thanks to the U.S. debt ceiling issue.

The U.S. government reached its statutory debt limit – the self-imposed cap on borrowing – of $31.4 trillion in January, forcing the Treasury to implement extraordinary measures to help the government meet its obligations for at least five months. These measures also boosted the dollar liquidity and kept risk assets bid.

Since then, the debt ceiling negotiations have been in a deadlock. Last week, one-year credit default swaps, which measure the cost of insuring against government default in the next 12 months, rose to a record high, according to Wall Street Journal.

The current pricing in the CDS market shows a 2% probability of a default. That’s uncomfortably high for something that could be a financial calamity, Andy Sparks, the head of portfolio-management research at New York-based MSCI told WSJ.

Observers are worried the Treasury may run out of money in June.

“The debt ceiling drama is a source of short-term volatility and adds uncertainty to the market,” Laneva told CoinDesk.

Bitcoin is still seen as a risk asset and may face selling pressure if equities throw a fit at some point. Risk assets took a beating during the 2011 debt ceiling drama when a deadlock in Washington led to the country losing its top-notch triple-A sovereign credit rating.

“Once a deal is reached, expected in the second half of the year, the Treasury will need to refill its reserves, thereby reducing liquidity and exacerbating the impact of quantitative tightening [sister of rate hikes]….this situation may prompt the Fed to cut rates, which would ultimately benefit risk assets,” Laneva said.

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According to Tom Dunleavy, macro analyst at Messari, a potential default might see bitcoin pick up a haven bid like it did during the recent banking crisis in March.

“I find it unlikely that the U.S. goes into default. I think the debt ceiling issue will be resolved before it comes to that,” Dunleavy said. “If the U.S. does default or we get close to the deadline without a deal it should be immensely positive for BTC. We’ve seen the store of value story for BTC become more solidified with the recent bank failures. BTC’s correlation to gold is also near all-time highs,” Dunleavy added.

Edited by Parikshit Mishra.

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