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EigenLayer’s Sreeram Kannan: King of the Professor Coins

Kannan may have played a larger role than any other entrepreneur in revitalizing DeFi on Ethereum. But not everything went according to plan.

For a crypto founder who’s attracted so much controversy, Sreeram Kannan is surprisingly sanguine.

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In a wide-ranging interview after his selection as one of CoinDesk’s “Most Influential” figures in crypto for 2024, the EigenLayer founder was generous with his time, chatting more than an hour beyond our scheduled slot. I was surprised at his openness because the last time we spoke, a colleague and I had just published an investigation into potential conflicts of interest at his company, Eigen Labs, and in the interim Kannan had disavowed our reporting point-by-point on a Blockworks podcast.

This time, Kannan emerged in a different light. Whatever his misgivings about CoinDesk’s past coverage, they didn’t seem top-of-mind.

What emerged wasn’t the portrait of a defensive tech founder, but rather that of a driven, thoughtful academic-turned-entrepreneur still adjusting to a spotlight few in this industry ever enjoy. Instead of bitterness or evasion, I found ambition, reflection and a quiet kind of excitement.

Kannan seemed as astonished as anyone by how swiftly EigenLayer had transformed from a concept into one of crypto’s most talked-about experiments, telling CoinDesk that he continued to view EigenLayer as a “scrappy startup.”

Over the past 12 months, EigenLayer — which allows emerging blockchain applications to borrow Ethereum’s robust security — went from a relative unknown to an industry heavyweight. The platform raised more than $100 million from venture firms including Andreessen Horowitz and, before even fully launching, drew hundreds of millions of dollars in deposits from crypto users seeking extra yield. Many were incentivized by a viral points program that investors hoped would translate into a lucrative future token airdrop.

EigenLayer’s success during the bear market was striking, and Kannan may have played a larger role than any other entrepreneur in revitalizing decentralized finance on Ethereum. But not everything went according to plan.

Industry critics took issue with the EIGEN token distribution plan — which locked up tokens for months and barred claimants from certain geographies — as well as the platform’s slower-than-expected feature rollout and concerns about “rehypothecation,” or the reuse of collateral for multiple purposes. In August, the CoinDesk investigation (that Kannan disputed in the podcast) raised questions about EigenLayer’s conflict-of-interest policies, which may have allowed employees preferential access to tokens powered by its platform.

None of this seemed to derail Kannan’s intellectual ascent. Beyond running Eigen Labs, he still holds a position as an associate professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Washington, though he is currently on leave, and his theory of “restaking” — letting people reuse staked Ethereum assets to secure other networks — has sparked a wave of innovation and copycats. He’s become a familiar face on the conference circuit, where he unpacks his vision of blockchains as tools for solving humanity’s endless “coordination problems.”

Blockchains, Kannan says, “are the biggest upgrade to human civilization since the U.S. Constitution.”

Academia

Kannan grew up in Chennai, in southern India. At first, he was drawn to pure math, staying in India for his undergraduate and master’s degrees. He studied telecommunications, a discipline that would later prove relevant to crypto’s distributed systems.

In 2008, he moved to the United States to earn another master’s in mathematics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, followed by a Ph.D. in entrepreneurship. Then, postdoctoral stints at Berkeley and Stanford opened his eyes to new academic frontiers.

At Berkeley, a lecture on “Synthetic Genomics” lured Kannan into the intricate realm of reprogramming living systems. “I said, ‘Okay, that seems much more fun than trying to get people to download more and more data on their phones,’” Kannan remarked.

Computational biology became Kannan’s specialty. As an associate professor at the University of Washington, he worked with his students to develop complex mathematical models to study the structure of DNA. Then advances in artificial intelligence blindsided him. One of Kannan’s students proposed using AI for a particularly tricky DNA sequencing problem, and Kannan balked — surely a neural network couldn’t outperform his finely tuned equations. Yet, in just two weeks, the AI beat Kannan’s best benchmarks.

Kannan came to a disturbing realization: “In five or ten years, all the stuff I was doing — the mathematical algorithms — is all gone,” he said. “AI will do everything.”

Pathfinding

Confronted with AI’s relentless rise, Kannan saw two paths: go deeper into AI-driven computational biology or try something new. He chose the latter.

In 2017, a call from his Ph.D. advisor alerted him to Bitcoin’s meteoric rise. Kannan began dabbling in crypto, and a reading of Yuval Noah Harari’s “Sapiens” offered deeper inspiration. Kannan’s takeaway from the bestseller was that “the reason why humans are special is not that we are intelligent,” or “can innovate.” Instead, humanity’s strength comes from our ability to coordinate at scale.

“Coordination is communication plus commitments,” Kannan said, explaining that while the internet had solved global communication, there was still no digital-native way to ensure trust. To Kannan, the trustless architecture of blockchains could fill that void. “If you don’t trust somebody, you’re not going to be able to coordinate,” he said, framing blockchains as the next evolutionary leap in human cooperation.

He dove deeper into Bitcoin, noting its low throughput and inefficiencies. That felt oddly familiar. “This is what I had studied in my PhD: How do you optimize a peer-to-peer wireless network?” Crypto’s bottlenecks and scaling issues seemed like the perfect place to apply his telecommunications expertise.

By early 2018, Kannan had found his purpose in crypto: not just to tinker, but to use his academic experience to address fundamental human coordination and scaling problems. He was ready, as he put it, “to go all in.”

Founding EigenLayer

Kannan’s early path through crypto founderdom included a few less-than-successful pit stops, among them building a short-lived NFT marketplace. “I realized I can only really build things for which I, or some core team members, are also the consumers,“ Kannan said. He shuttered the project in under a year.

He then began shopping around ideas for new blockchain security models, including one that he proposed to Cardano, the blockchain project helmed by Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson. Kannan’s work in this area eventually culminated in an idea that stuck: “restaking” — the technology that would eventually underpin EigenLayer.

Ultimately, Kannan focused on Ethereum, the most widely used smart-contract blockchain, and he formed Eigen Labs, the company behind EigenLayer. The new platform’s goal was straightforward: let emerging blockchain projects “borrow” Ethereum’s security through restaking.

Ethereum is secured by a system in which users “stake” ether (ETH) as collateral, effectively earning interest in return for helping validate the network. Misbehavior – such as misreporting transactions or going offline – risks having collateral slashed.

EigenLayer builds on that structure, allowing stakers to earn additional returns by “restaking” their ETH pledged on the main chain to secure other networks, known as “actively validated services” or AVSs.

It’s unlikely most stakers (or restakers) really understand how this all works under the hood. Most investors stake ETH because they want to earn interest. EigenLayer promised to boost yields with its restaking.

For AVS developers, EigenLayer provides an easy way to tap into Ethereum’s collateral reserves without building a new security framework from scratch. This concept of “shared security” resonated widely and helped propel EigenLayer’s sudden rise.

“It’s a crazy, 100-year project, and it upgrades the human species,” Kannan told CoinDesk.

Growing pains

As EigenLayer soared, the bright lights brought scrutiny. “There was a lot of uncomfortable attention,” recalls Kannan. The attention was “positive, initially,” but it eventually began to sour in some corners.

“I think the first time the negativity hit was after the token launch,” reflected Kannan.

Before announcing the EIGEN token, EigenLayer gave “points” to depositors, a common tactic in crypto to spark early interest. Officially, the points are just an informal tally meant to gamify the system. But people mainly racked up points because they assumed they’d eventually be able to cash them in for EIGEN crypto tokens — speculation that EigenLayer did little to quell.

Entire markets emerged around these points, even though they were not meant to hold intrinsic value and EigenLayer never directly confirmed that it would release a token.

Early enthusiasm surrounding EigenLayer points turned into disappointment once the EIGEN token details finally emerged in April. People who expected easy liquidity chafed at EigenLayer’s plan to lock tokens for several months. Some felt excluded by geography-based restrictions, which Eigen Labs imposed to avoid violating U.S. securities laws. Others criticized EigenLayer’s slow feature rollout and fretted over conflict-of-interest issues, including (but not limited to) those raised by CoinDesk’s investigation.

“We had these features which were coming up. We had more decentralization coming up,” said Kannan. In the EigenLayer founder’s mind, he was “trying to protect the rights of all the people holding tokens” with his conservative regulatory approach, and by blocking transfers until after the platform was ready to release its main features. But, Kannan admits, ”it just blew up in the most negative possible manner.”

Kannan attributes some of the turbulence to his academic roots. He’d stepped into a world rife with hype cycles, tribal spheres, and financialization, and he was still learning its rhythms.

Early on, he realized that building a crypto startup required a more diverse team and skill set than any academic project. In one of his earlier failed crypto ventures, “everybody was similar,” with PhDs from “Stanford, MIT, and the University of Washington.” With EigenLayer, Kannan knew he needed not just brilliant engineers but also clear communicators, community advocates, and savvy business operators.

But Kannan still had to learn how to turn intellectual rigor into practical progress — and how to communicate that progress to a restless audience. The token fiasco exposed a disconnect between Eigen Labs and its community.

Users and developers wanted more transparency, collaboration, and communication. To Kannan, those demands felt extreme even by crypto’s warped, highly financialized standards. But he eventually understood that his perception of EigenLayer, as a scrappy startup, didn’t match how others saw it, as an industry juggernaut.

Kannan recalls being at a crypto conference and having a stranger ask him how the crypto community should address a concerning trend of over-leverage in crypto markets. Kannan was confused. “That doesn’t have anything to do with EigenLayer,” he recalled thinking. “I asked him, ‘Why are you telling me this?’” The answer: “Because you’re an industry leader.”

It was a turning point. Kannan, who once saw himself as “just some startup guy,” began accepting this new reality. Influence comes with responsibility and complexity.

One EigenLayer investor reminded Kannan that as he charted new territory, he would continue facing unexpected hurdles. In founding a startup, Kannan would be forced to reckon with something he was used to from his research days: trial and error. “You will learn,” the investor told him, “So I’m going to let you make your mistakes.”

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Tigran Gambaryan: The Star Crypto Investigator Kidnapped by Nigeria

The star IRS investigator-turned-executive was unlawfully detained by Nigeria and charged with tax evasion for Binance. His case shocked the crypto industry.

After eight long, harrowing months locked up in a Nigerian prison, Tigran Gambaryan is finally back home in Atlanta, recovering from his ordeal.

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The Nigerian government finally agreed to release Gambaryan on humanitarian grounds in October to allow him to return to the U.S. to receive medical care for a host of conditions he developed while in Kuje prison including malaria, double pneumonia, and a herniated disc in his back that left him in excruciating pain and struggling to walk.

In addition to releasing Gambaryan, Nigerian officials dropped the money laundering charges they’d been prosecuting him for since March, as a stand-in for his employer, Binance. The Nigerian government accused Binance of tanking the value of the naira by facilitating the movement of some $23 billion in untraceable funds in 2023. Equally unjust tax evasion charges against Gambaryan had previously been dropped in June. Binance, however, still faces both charges; the Nigerian government is seeking $10 billion in penalties.

Gambaryan’s detention sparked outrage across the crypto industry and beyond. As Binance’s Head of Financial Crime Compliance, Gambaryan had nothing to do with his employer’s actions, criminal or not, in Nigeria. And, as an American citizen, it was unthinkable for many, including several members of Congress, that he could be snatched by a foreign country – especially one that is an ally of the U.S. – and left to languish in a cell for nearly a year.

And, perhaps most perplexingly, Gambaryan wasn’t just any American executive getting held for ransom – he’s a former federal agent, a one-time Internal Revenue Service (IRS) investigator that was part of an elite group of early crypto tracers in the federal government. During his tenure at the IRS, Gambaryan had a central role in some of the biggest crypto crime busts in the industry’s history, including the takedown of child sex abuse video network Welcome to Video and darknet marketplace Alpha Bay, the seizure of nearly 70,000 bitcoins stolen from the Silk Road, and the recovery of 650,000 bitcoins stolen from Mt Gox.

That Nigeria would detain any American executive to use as a scapegoat for their employer was bad enough. But that Nigeria detained Tigran Gambaryan, a former U.S. government employee, was an outrage.

Star investigator

Gambaryan’s detention came as a shock to many of his former government colleagues, including Lili Infante, CEO of CAT Labs. During her tenure as a special agent at the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), Infante frequently crossed paths with Gambaryan, working with him on investigations and sharing investigative techniques.

“Tigran is a very rare breed of elite investigator,” Infante said. “It’s very difficult to find his personality type in the government. If IRS-CI had the equivalent of a special forces, he would probably be front and center leading them.”

Infante, along with Gambaryan, was part of an elite cadre of early crypto tracers working across several government agencies who figured out how to track transactions that were, at the time, largely thought to be anonymous. And, of all the federal agencies developing cutting-edge crypto tracing techniques, the IRS was the best.

“They were accountants. They were really good at following the money, and this was just following the money on blockchains,” said Ari Redbord, global head of policy at blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs. “And Tigran really became the star amongst that group of agents in those early days… In large part, he invented what it means to be a cryptocurrency investigator.”

Infante said that Gambaryan was “instrumental” in catapulting IRS-CI into being the leading federal agency in crypto investigations.

“Not only did he work on some of the most impactful, high profile crypto cases, which resulted in multi-billion dollars of digital asset seizures, he also mentored other agents and laid the groundwork for IRS-CI to continue dominating in the area of crypto investigations even after he left [for Binance],” Infante said. “He left a legacy.”

Infante attributes part of Gambaryan’s success at the IRS to his personality, which she and other former colleagues of his described as driven, ambitious and innovative.

“He’s like a dog with a bone. No challenge is too difficult,” Infante recalled. “The government was lucky to have him. It’s very, very difficult to innovate in the government because of the level of bureaucracy…Innovation requires a certain level of risk tolerance which Tigran had, and still does. Sometimes it pays off, and sometimes it bites you.”

Pioneer at Binance

When Gambaryan left the IRS and took a position at Binance in 2021, Infante said she wasn’t surprised. By the time he left the government, the crypto investigative space had matured significantly, and Gambaryan was ready for a new challenge.

And Binance presented a significant challenge, even for the OG crypto investigator. When Gambaryan joined the company, it was still willingly violating the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) by failing to set up a proper know-your-customer/anti-money laundering regime, which allowed money launderers and international criminals to use the platform freely. Last year, the company agreed to pay $4.3 billion in fines to settle criminal charges against it, and then-CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao was sentenced to four months in federal prison — half the time that Gambaryan ended up serving in Nigeria.

Though Gambaryan was well aware of Binance’s troubles, he took the job anyway.

“He said, ‘Well, it’s the largest exchange. They have the most impact on the industry right now, and I want to help them get their shit together,’” Infante recalled Gambaryan saying before he left the IRS. “And he wasn’t kidding.”

Redbord pointed out that, though it is now common for government officials to take jobs in the crypto industry, it was “pretty extraordinary” when Gambaryan joined Binance.

“He’s a man of firsts,” Redbord said. “This was a very unique thing at the time. Not only did he go to a cryptocurrency business, he went to the largest by a magnitude of 15, and one that was really having to rethink the way it did anti-money laundering and compliance. And he came in and really became the face of that in many respects.”

Infante pointed to the exchange’s response process to law enforcement inquiries as an example of how Gambaryan had positively changed Binance.

“It’s night and day. Before Tigran came in, you’d send a request or a subpoena and you’d wait a month or two or six or forever — the compliance program was nonexistent,” Infante said. “After Tigran came in, you’d get an answer within 24 hours.”

“Imagine taking a borderline criminal organization and turning it into a force for good to help law enforcement with their cases, be extremely compliant with subpoena requests, helping return assets to victims of cybercrime and pig butchering – it’s an impact. It’s a massive impact,” Infante added.

A spokesperson for Binance said Gambaryan brought “unparalleled expertise” to the exchange when he joined in 2021.

“His contributions have solidified Binance’s position as a leader in compliance and innovation within the cryptocurrency ecosystem,” the spokesperson added.

Colleagues, Congressmen push back

For many in the crypto industry, especially for compliance officers and former government officials, Gambaryan’s stellar track record made his detention in Nigeria — and the U.S. government’s disturbingly lackluster response — even more incomprehensible.

“Nobody should go through what he went through, but the fact that he’s literally a national treasure…and it took us eight months to get him out of a hostage situation in another country is insane,” said Infante.

Infante and Redbord joined a group of former federal agents and prosecutors that worked, behind the scenes and in public, to secure Gambaryan’s freedom. They both signed a letter, spearheaded by investor and former federal prosecutor Katie Haun to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, asking the State Department to “step up” its efforts to get Gambaryan home. Some of Gambaryan’s former government colleagues also protested outside the UN in September and regularly posted on social media demanding his freedom.

Read more: Former Government Employees, Compliance Officers Rally for Detained Binance Executive

Their efforts to free Gambaryan also attracted people who didn’t know him before his detention.

Gary Weinstein, founder of Infinity Consulting, told CoinDesk he worked pro bono for four hours a day for months to help free Gambaryan.

“I felt a personal responsibility to act. I think Tigran’s dedication to compliance and integrity resonated with my values,” Weinstein said. “I couldn’t just sit by hoping for a good result.”

Members of Congress also took steps to advocate for his release. Sixteen members of Congress signed a June 2024 letter to President Joe Biden, Blinken, and Roger Carstens, the Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs, urging them to take “immediate action” to get Gambaryan released.

Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.), who signed the letter, and Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Penn.) traveled to Nigeria to visit Gambaryan in prison in June.

Poorly handled

Though Gambaryan was ultimately released, many of those involved in advocating for his freedom remain frustrated by the way that his situation was handled by the Biden Administration.

Infante credited Hill and Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Georgia), Gambaryan’s congressman, with advocating for his release on Capitol Hill, but stressed that their degree of involvement should not have been necessary.

“Something like that happens to me, God forbid, I hope I have a representative like Rich McCormick to fight for me,” Infante said. “But they can only do so much. Because, really, it should have been a phone call from the President. It could have been resolved very early on, in my opinion, and it wasn’t. It wasn’t prioritized, and it should have been. That’s where the frustration lies – with the White House.”

Though a spokesperson for Binance said the company doesn’t believe Gambaryan’s situation was “unique to the crypto industry,” others, including Amanda Wick, a former money laundering process who now works as a crypto consultant, believe Gambaryan’s employment in the crypto industry was part of the reason the White House dragged its feet freeing him.

“Just look at all the things about him: he was a former IRS agent that had served his country as a law enforcement agent, he was a compliance officer and he was an American. And all of that was getting subsumed and ignored because he was in crypto.”

While the government ultimately secured Gambaryan’s release, the lack of transparency throughout the negotiation process left many people closely watching the situation — including Rep. Hill — frustrated.

“Tigran is back where he belongs – home with his family in America. I remain deeply disappointed that an American business executive was held under horrible conditions on unsubstantiated charges by Nigeria, a nation that the United States considers a friend,” Hill told CoinDesk.

On November 19, Hill introduced a bill, the American Detainee Transparency and Recovery Act, aimed at increasing the transparency in the recovery process.

“Tigran should have never been wrongfully detained by the Nigerian government in the first place and his case should be an example to the incoming Trump administration of how not to treat Americans who are taken by our friends and allies,” Hill said.

Chilling effect

Wick and others said that Gambaryan’s situation is likely to create a chilling effect across the industry, and perhaps beyond, when it comes to sending American employees to foreign countries on business.

At the September protest at the UN, Wick said one of the attendees was a man who did not know Gambaryan personally, but worked in compliance at a traditional finance firm.

“Most of us were former prosecutors and agents – crypto people who either knew Tigran or were in that community. But there was a guy who came [to the protest] who used to be at Wells Fargo, and he came because it could have been him,” Wick said.

“People forget that, at the end of the day, he was just a compliance employee who was kidnapped in a foreign country for the compliance failures of his financial institution,” Wick added. “And the only reason why people were so comfortable with it was because Binance was a crypto company…but if it had been TD Bank? If it had been Wells Fargo, and an American had just been kidnapped because of the company he worked for not having a sufficient AML program and then held in a prison with terrorists? If you say it out loud, it’s ridiculous.”

Weinstein said Gambaryan’s situation raises a “huge issue” — that foreign governments, including those allied with the U.S., might feel emboldened to target and detain compliance officers without just cause to hold them as bargaining chips.

“It sets a dangerous precedent that could deter talented professionals from entering the field, engaging and frankly, is a setback for the industry’s growth and its efforts to build trust with regulators,” Weinstein said.

“Tigran’s wrongful detention was a wake up call for the entire crypto industry, and it highlighted vulnerabilities that compliance officers and professionals face when engaging with international regulators.”

Moving forward

Gambaryan is now at home and focusing on his recovery. A spokesperson for his family declined CoinDesk’s request for an interview for this story, citing his ongoing recovery.

“There is an overwhelming sense of relief and gratitude among the Binance team. Tigran’s safe return is not just a moment of personal joy but also a collective victory for those who supported him throughout this ordeal,” a Binance spokesperson said.

“That said, we remain deeply concerned about his health and are focusing right now on providing support to help him and his family during this time of healing.”

This profile is part of CoinDesk’s Most Influential 2024 package. For all of this year’s nominees, click here.

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Shayne Coplan: He Took Prediction Markets Mainstream

In so doing, Polymarket’s founder demonstrated a real-world consumer use case for crypto, earning him a spot on CoinDesk’s Most Influential 2024 list.

For decades, prediction markets were a backwater, a science experiment.

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In 2024, Shayne Coplan, founder of Polymarket, turned them into a multibillion-dollar business and a popular barometer of the political winds, cited by everyone from Donald Trump to CNN.

In so doing, he demonstrated a real-world consumer use case for cryptocurrency – and, some argue, a new model for news media at a time when the public has lost trust in traditional sources of information.

“Most people I know were checking Polymarket for odds during the election,” said Meltem Demirors, a crypto O.G. and early investor in the company. “You’re creating so much signal that you’re getting people who don’t care about crypto, and would never care about crypto” to look at the site.

Like many crypto founders – and even some successful tech founders – the 26-year-old Coplan also took what looks like a calculated risk in pushing the regulatory envelope. In mid-November, the FBI raided his New York home and confiscated his devices, reportedly as part of a Department of Justice investigation into whether Polymarket was operating illegally in the U.S. Coplan has laid low since then, and would not comment for this article.

However that investigation shakes out, Coplan has brought unprecedented attention to an idea long advanced by academics: That the wisdom of the crowd, backed by skin in the game, can produce more accurate forecasts – or at least, more accurate gauges of sentiment – than traditional experts or polls.

“This man made prediction markets mainstream. Simple as that,” said Hart Lambur, co-founder of UMA, the decentralized oracle service that Polymarket uses to resolve contracts. “He’s just been the guy that’s grinded through the pain and been dedicated to the Polymarket concept for years.”

A stubborn wunderkind

Demirors recalls meeting Coplan in 2018, when the college dropout was about 18 years old, on the recommendation of a crypto colleague.

“Shayne came to my office, and we basically just argued with each other for two hours,” Demirors said. “I was like, ‘wow, this kid is sharp.'”

Pratik Chougule, executive director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, got a similar impression interviewing Coplan for the Star Spangled Gamblers podcast early in Polymarket’s history.

“He’s a very unique figure in the sense that he’s this creative artist type, but he’s also delved deeply into academic literature, and he really understands technicalities of building something on the blockchain,” said Chougule.

Demirors said that in addition to investing in an early Polymarket round during the pandemic, she has been “a little bit of a big sis” to Coplan, acting as a sounding board as he built the business.

“He’s just an opinionated, stubborn little f*ck, and I love him,” she said, adding that Coplan’s headstrong personality served him well as a founder.

Early on, “people tried to pressure him to launch a token, and he was like, ‘we’re not doing that.’ People tried to pressure him to open up markets before the infrastructure was ready. He was like, ‘we’re not doing that.'”

Volume and vindication

Flip Pidot, a veteran prediction market trader and analyst, estimated that Polymarket racked up $3.6 billion in trading volume just from this year’s U.S. presidential election, giving it a dominant, 74% market share. In previous election cycles, the entire prediction market industry never cracked $1 billion, he said.

Many saw the election as a moment of vindication for Polymarket. In the weeks leading up to the event, Polymarket odds signaled a sizable lead for Trump while the polls showed a toss-up between the former president and his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump won handily.

Yet a clearer validation of Polymarket’s informational value arguably came in July, when President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris.

For months, cable news’ talking heads dismissed any talk of replacing Biden on the Democratic ticket, despite the 82-year-old’s frequent public stumbles.

https://twitter.com/0rf/status/1807620571934478683

Polymarket told a different story: Even after Biden won enough votes to clinch the Democratic nomination in mid-March, traders gave him only an 80% chance of being the nominee. A separate contract asking point blank if he would drop out gave low but nontrivial odds in the teens and 20s throughout the first half of the year.

“People were like, ‘Oh, these [traders] are right-wing crypto bros, they’re just conspiracy theorists. They don’t know what’s going on,'” said a Polymarket user who goes by the handle CSPTrading. “And they were completely vindicated.”

Following Biden’s disastrous, doddering performance in the June 27 debate with Trump, the narrative quickly changed, with Democratic leaders and donors calling for the incumbent to step aside, as he did a month later.

More so than with the election, the pundits (who had nothing to lose from being wrong) got it wrong by claiming epistemic certainty. Polymarket’s traders (who had money on the line) got it right by telegraphing a modicum of doubt.

Spectrum of decentralization

In prediction markets, traders bet on verifiable outcomes of events in specified timeframes. (Which movie will gross the biggest box office of 2024? Will this be the hottest year on record?) Questions are usually framed as yes-or-no propositions, for which traders can purchase “yes” or “no” shares. Each share pays $1 (or, in Polymarket’s case, the equivalent in crypto) if the prediction comes true, bupkis if not.

Bettors can buy and sell shares any time, and prices fluctuate like on stock markets. Expressed as cents on the dollar, these prices signal the market’s assessment of an outcome’s probability. On Dec. 4, for example, “yes” shares for the Detroit Lions winning the next Super Bowl traded at 18 cents on Polymarket, meaning bettors gave the team an 18% chance of victory. The corresponding “no” shares were priced at 82 cents.

Prediction markets date back to the late 19th Century, when Wall Street traders would bet millions (tens of millions in today’s dollars) on city, state and national elections. “There was more money bet in presidential betting markets than in the stock markets at the time,” said Robin Hanson, an economist at George Mason University.

Since the late-1980s, Hanson has championed prediction markets as a way to aggregate information and thereby improve decision making by corporations and even governments.

“One of the obstacles, of course, was that betting markets had many legal barriers, and cultural barriers [because] many people disapproved of them and thought they had little social value,” Hanson told CoinDesk.

This is one reason why blockchains, decentralized financial systems with no central authority that a government can shut down, have long been seen as a natural home for prediction markets. They are one of the use cases Ethereum architect Vitalik Buterin described in his 2014 white paper for what would become the second-largest blockchain. (As a teenager, Coplan bought into the Ethereum crowdsale; a decade later, Buterin invested in Polymarket.)

The modern-day prediction markets Hanson inspired can be viewed on a spectrum. On one end there’s the model used by Augur, one of the first projects built on Ethereum.

“One of the advantages is that it’s 100% decentralized,” said Joey Krug, who co-founded Augur in 2015. “If you’re building it, you’re effectively writing code. It’s effectively free speech, assuming you’re not taking a fee for yourself, and it’s also pretty flexible in the sense that anyone can kind of create a market on anything.”

But as crypto veterans know all too well, decentralization requires trade-offs.

Best of both worlds?

“It’s really hard to market if you’re building something decentralized,” said Krug, who is now a partner at Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and led its investment in Polymarket’s $45 million Series B round.

(For whatever it’s worth: Thiel was an early investor in Bullish, two years before that company acquired CoinDesk. Bullish has not disclosed a cap table since 2021, and CoinDesk journalists do not know the current roster of investors in its parent.)

“The whole point is that you don’t want to take on the regulatory version of being this central operator that does everything,” Krug said. “And so you don’t really market it. … You don’t do all this stuff that you need to do to actually get usage.”

Consequently, Augur had very little. (In fairness, Polymarket benefits from Ethereum infrastructure that wasn’t around when Augur debuted).

On the “very centralized” end of the continuum, there’s Kalshi. Founded in 2018, the startup boasts about its status as the first (and, until recently, only) regulated prediction market platform in the U.S.

This route has its own disadvantages. In 2023, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission denied Kalshi’s application to list election-related contracts, and the company spent most of this year fighting the regulator in court for the right to do so – while watching Polymarket enjoy the volume and publicity from political betting fever. Only after an appeals court upheld a ruling in its favor in early October, a month before the election, was Kalshi cleared to list political contracts.

Polymarket is in the middle of the spectrum. In some ways, it’s decentralized. It uses smart contracts on a blockchain (Polygon, a layer-two, or auxiliary network, to Ethereum) and doesn’t custody users’ funds. Bets are denominated in USDC, a stablecoin that trades 1:1 for dollars. Early on, an internal market integrity committee resolved Polymarket’s contracts, before Coplan’s team delegated this job to the decentralized UMA protocol.

“If you are sufficiently sophisticated, you can interact entirely with Polymarket without ever touching the website,” said Haseeb Qureshi, a managing partner at Dragonfly, another VC investor in Polymarket. “The trades settle all on-chain. You can interact with everything through APIs.”

But you don’t have to. Unlike Augur (which co-founder Krug admitted “kind of sucks to use”) or for that matter many crypto exchanges (decentralized or otherwise), traders have found Polymarket easy to use and reliable.

“The platform’s really smooth, it runs really well,” said CSPTrading. “On election night, it was basically up the entire time, which is crazy because… all the other sites were crashing.”

‘Decentralized enough’

One way Polymarket is centralized is that it curates markets. Community members can suggest ideas in the Discord server, but the team decides which ones get posted. With little fanfare, the platform recently debuted a “creators” page where big names like polling analyst Nate Silver (a Polymarket advisor) and the financial blogger Zerohedge have their own branded markets.

“I think Polymarket is moving its way towards more decentralization,” said Qureshi. “They’re also right to be doing this in a gradual, thoughtful way, rather than just turning everything on and saying, ‘let the dogs of hell run loose.'”

In Demirors’ view, Polymarket is “decentralized enough.” The key to winning this game, she said, is amassing “a large enough global pool of market participants,” because traders want to be where the liquidity is. By building on crypto rails at the right time, that’s what Polymarket has become.

“That’s the beauty of crypto. It’s global. Anyone with a wallet address can join,” Demirors said.

However, Polymarket wasn’t decentralized enough for U.S. regulators to consider it untouchable. In January 2022, the company paid a $1.4 million civil penalty and entered into a settlement with the CFTC, which said the company had been operating an unlicensed derivatives exchange because its services were available to U.S. citizens and residents.

Since then, the company has blocked U.S. IP addresses, but wily Americans have been using virtual private networks, or VPNs, to get around the geofencing. Apparently, the government thinks the company should have done more to keep Americans out, perhaps by requiring customer identification. (which Polymarket has requested only from a subset of users).

“Polymarket is required to adhere to the terms of the settlement they reached with the CFTC. Full stop,” a CFTC spokesperson told CoinDesk in late October, two weeks before law enforcement officials raided Coplan’s home. “That means they cannot accept any business from people living in the United States.”

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Coplan called the raid a “last-ditch effort” by the lame-duck Biden administration “to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents,” though he reiterated that Polymarket is nonpartisan.

Challenges ahead

Polymarket’s investors and supporters are hopeful the incoming Trump administration will end the probe as part of a broad pro-crypto agenda.

Even if Polymarket receives clemency, Coplan faces other challenges, not least of all maintaining volumes without a galvanizing tent-pole event like a presidential election.

The company, which currently doesn’t charge trading fees, also must figure out a long-term revenue model. And a handful of outcome disputes, including for a market on whether Trump’s son Barron was “involved” in a memecoin, suggest Polymarket needs to improve its resolution criteria.

Yet, by at least one measure, Coplan has already succeeded.

“Shayne’s vision has always been that this is a product that can disrupt traditional media and political discourse … and he achieved that” said Chougule, at the Coalition for Political Forecasting. “This was always the dream, that you would have major talk shows, cable news, places like Politico and Bloomberg citing prediction markets as a source of information, as something that can enlighten even people who know nothing or don’t care about prediction markets.”

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