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Binance’s Crypto Market Share Sinks to 4-Year Low

While Binance remains a giant in crypto trading, its volumes dropped over 20% in September versus the previous month, while rival Crypto.com’s surged over 40%.

Crypto exchange giant Binance’s lead over rivals melted to its narrowest in four years as rivals grabbed market share, CCData said in a Thursday report.

Binance handled 36.6% of overall spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized crypto exchanges, the exchange’s worst result since September 2020.

Its spot trading dropped by nearly 23% from August, driving its spot market share down to 27%, the lowest reading since January 2021, the report said. The platform’s derivatives trading also declined 21%, representing a 40.7% market share among centralized exchanges, the lowest level since September 2020.

Binance representatives haven’t returned a request for comment by publishing time.

One of the beneficiaries of Binance’s decline was Crypto.com, which grew its spot and derivatives trading volume by more than 40% on a month-to-month basis, CCData pointed out. Year-to-date, the exchange booked the largest gain in spot trading, increasing its market share to 10.5%.

Overall, trading activity on crypto exchanges waned last month with derivatives and spot trading volumes both falling 17%, the report noted. September historically marks the end of a weak mid-year season in trading, giving way to a busier last quarter, CCData analysts said. “With catalysts such as increased market liquidity following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the upcoming U.S. election, trading activity on centralized exchanges is expected to rise in the coming months,” the authors wrote.

Binance’s waning dominance coincided with increasing regulatory pressure on the exchange.

Last month, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a proposed amended complaint against Binance, scrutinizing the exchange’s token listing practice. It was a follow-up on the regulator’s June 2023 lawsuit, which alleged Binance operated as an unregistered broker, clearinghouse and trading venue, and offered unregistered securities. The exchange agreed to pay a $4.3 billion fine to various U.S. regulators to settle those charges.

The company’s founder and former CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao pleaded guilty and was sentenced to four months in prison for violating the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) by failing to set up adequate know-your-customer (KYC) systems at the trading venue. He was released last week.

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XRP’s ‘Bearish Skew’ Persists After 10% Price Slide Amid SEC Appeal and ETF Filing

Just as optimism was about to surge, clouds rolled in, pushing prices lower.

XRP’s (XRP) options market shows a greater risk of an extended price decline than renewed gains as renewed regulatory uncertainty overshadows Bitwise’s ETF filing and weighs over the cryptocurrency’s price.

On Monday, asset manager Bitwise submitted an S-1 form to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), filing for an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that would invest in XRP. Bitcoin and ether spot ETFs, which debuted in the U.S. early this year, have pulled in billions of dollars in investor money.

However, to the dismay of XRP bulls, Bitwise’s action was quickly followed by the SEC filing a notice of appeal to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals, pushing back against Judge Analisa Torres’s two-month-old ruling that fintech company Ripple Labs did not violate programmatic sales to retail exchanges did not violate securities rules.

Four years ago, the SEC charged Ripple with selling unregistered securities after the platform sold $1.3 billion worth of XRP. While Ripple is a fintech company dedicated to building a global payments network, XRP is an independent digital asset for online payments and currency swaps.

Being categorized as security is widely seen as a bearish development in the crypto market, as securities are more tightly regulated than commodities and demand greater reporting and transparency by companies.

As such, XRP has declined by 11% to 53.7 cents in the past 24 hours, taking the week-to-date loss to over 16%, according to data sources CoinDesk and Coingecko. It’s the third worst-performing cryptocurrency among the top 100 coins by market value. Market leaders bitcoin and ether are down 0.5% and 3.7%, respectively.

Bearish options skew

Options traders on Deribit seem relatively more bearish on XRP than bitcoin and ether, according to the seven-day call-put skew, which measures the difference between call and put volatility (demand).

At press time, XRP’s seven-day skew was -3.2%, a sign of bias for puts offering protection against price slides. BTC and ETH’s seven-day skews were 0% or neutral and 2.8%, according to data source Amberdata.

Meanwhile, funding rates in the XRP perpetual futures market have turned positive, reversing the brief overnight negative flip, which represented a bearish bias.

Bitcoin Could Surge Thanks to Looser Financial Conditions

A less-widely followed report from the Chicago Fed indicated the easiest conditions since November 2021.

The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) offers a weekly update on U.S. financial conditions across money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and shadow banking systems. The NFCI is a valuable tool for assessing the health of financial markets, providing insights into liquidity, credit availability, and market risk. The index is structured so that a negative NFCI value indicates looser-than-average financial conditions, suggesting an environment where liquidity is more readily available. Conversely, a positive value indicates tighter-than-average conditions, where access to capital becomes more restrictive.

For the week ending Sept. 13, the NFCI registered at -0.56, indicating that financial conditions eased even further from the already looser than average level of the previous week. This level of financial ease hasn’t been seen since November 2021, a period during which bitcoin (BTC) reached its 2021 cycle high of $69,000.

A noteworthy analysis on the relationship between the NFCI and bitcoin was recently shared by Fejau, host of the Forward Guidance Podcast. In an X thread, Fejau pointed out the negative correlation between the NFCI and bitcoin, arguing that looser financial conditions often act as a tailwind for risky assets. According to Fejau, when financial conditions loosen, easing increases, leading to a risk-on environment where speculative assets, including bitcoin, tend to rally.

Fejau’s analysis traces this negative correlation across several market cycles. In 2013, as financial conditions eased, bitcoin surged from around $100 in July to over $1,000 by November. This coincided with the NFCI index registering a low of around -0.80, indicating significantly looser than average financial conditions.

Similarly, in 2017-2018, the loosening of financial conditions coincided with bitcoin’s dramatic rise from $2,000 to $20,000 in just six months at the end of 2017. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, financial conditions tightened significantly—the most restrictive since 2009—leading to a crash in both traditional risk assets and bitcoin.

Most recently, Fejau notes that as financial conditions have loosened over the past twelve months, bitcoin has once again surged, climbing from $25,000 to over $73,000 in March 2024 even before global central banks started to cut interest rates. Which shows financial conditions have been loose for the past twelve months.

This relationship is not entirely straightforward, with other factors like the DXY index (a measure of the U.S. dollar’s strength) also influencing bitcoin’s trajectory. A rising DXY tends to have negative implications for bitcoin, as a stronger dollar makes speculative assets less attractive.

As financial conditions continue to ease, the outlook for bitcoin and other speculative investments could remain positive, provided other economic factors remain supportive.

Bitcoin’s Use as Margin Collateral in Crypto Futures Trading Is Growing

Using BTC as collateral for a derivative is effectively a double whammy, according to analysts.

Bitcoin (BTC) is unlikely to shed its tag as an unpredictable and volatile asset any time soon because crypto traders are increasingly using the largest cryptocurrency as a margin in futures trading.

Since July, the percentage of bitcoin futures open interest margined with bitcoin has risen to 33% from roughly 20%, according to data tracked by Glassnode. Cash or stablecoin-margined contracts still account for 65% of the total open interest.

Futures are leveraged products, allowing traders to maximize exposure for a deposit at the exchange, known as margin, which is a small percent of the contract size. The exchange provides the rest of the value of the trade. The renewed interest in BTC-margined contracts means potential for volatility-boosting liquidations cascades, according to research provider Blockware Intelligence. That occurs when multiple liquidations – or forced closure of positions due to margin shortage – happen consecutively, causing a rapid price change.

“Using BTC as collateral for a BTC derivative is effectively a double whammy,” analysts at Blockware Intelligence said in a weekly newsletter. “If you’re long BTC with BTC posted as collateral, the price going down brings you to your liquidation point faster because the value of your collateral is declining at the same time. “Leveraging against your BTC during its monetization phase is extremely risky, [as] you can be correct directionally, but volatility can wipe you out regardless.”

Coin-margined contracts are quoted in U.S. dollars, but margined and settled in cryptocurrencies. In other words, the collateral is as volatile as the position, creating a non-linear payoff, where a trader earns less when the market rallies and loses more when the market drops.

So, not only does a long position bleed as bitcoin’s dollar-denominated price drops, but the collateral also loses value, compounding losses. That, in turn, results in a relatively quick margin shortfall and potential liquidation.

The trend is worrying in a sense that should coin-margined contracts become dominant, we may see frequent volatility-boosting liquidations cascades. Such events were quite common before September 2021, when coin-margined contracts accounted for more than 50% of the global open interest.

According to Blockware, the renewed interest in such contracts represents a shortage of cash in the market.

“The spike in this metric over the past few months is curious, it may suggest that traders are running out of cash and are resorting to leveraging against their BTC as the last means of increasing their exposure,” the analysts said.

Liquidity has been leaving the crypto market for some time. According to CCData, the total market value of all stablecoins contracted by 0.4% to $125 billion in August, the 17th consecutive monthly decline. The market cap of tether (USDT), the world’s largest stablecoin by market value, has fallen almost $1 billion to $82.87 billion in the past four weeks, CoinGecko data show.

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Grayscale’s Legal Win Versus SEC Makes Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval More Likely: JPMorgan

For the SEC to defend its denial of Grayscale’s proposal to convert GBTC into an ETF, it would have to withdraw its previous approval of futures-based bitcoin ETFs, which is unlikely, the report said.

It is more likely that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would be forced to approve the spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded-fund (ETF) applications from several asset managers after a federal court ruled that the regulator must review its rejection of Grayscale’s attempt to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF, JPMorgan (JPM) said in a report Friday.

“The most important element of the Grayscale vs. SEC court ruling was that the denial by SEC was arbitrary and capricious because the Commission failed to explain its different treatment of similar products i.e., futures-based bitcoin ETFs,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote. Grayscale and CoinDesk are both owned by Digital Currency Group (DCG).

The court argued that fraud and manipulation in the spot market posed a similar risk to both futures and spot products because the “spot bitcoin market and CME bitcoin futures market are so tightly correlated,” the report said.

JPMorgan notes that the court ruled there was no justification to allow futures-based bitcoin ETFs but deny spot ETFs. That’s highly significant because it implies that for the SEC to defend its denial of Grayscale’s proposal to convert GBTC, “it would have to retroactively withdraw its previous approval of futures-based bitcoin ETFs.”

A retroactive withdrawal would be extremely disruptive and embarrassing for the SEC and therefore appears unlikely, the bank said.

Still, while the Grayscale ruling may bring closer to the eventual approval of a spot bitcoin ETF, “such an approval is unlikely to prove a game changer for the crypto market,” the note said.

Spot bitcoin ETFs have existed for some time outside the U.S., but have failed to attract considerable investor interest, and bitcoin funds overall, both futures-based and physically backed funds, have attracted little investor interest since the second quarter of 2021, the report added.

Spot-based ETFs allow investors to hold their positions indefinitely while eliminating the rollover cost associated with futures ETFs. The crypto market is optimistic that an eventual launch of spot-based ETFs will unlock floodgates to mainstream money.

Read more: SEC Could Prepare Alternative Arguments to Reject Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Berenberg

SOL, XRP Lead Slide in Crypto Majors as Bitcoin Slips Below $30K

Some selling pressure may have arisen from a revised U.S. bill that excludes a host of traditional securities from the “digital asset” category, which some say bodes ill for DeFi.

Verilere göre, solana’nın SOL’u gibi en büyük blok zincirlerinden bazılarının belirteçleri son 24 saatte %8’e kadar düştüğü için, bitcoin’de (BTC) kar elde etme, daha geniş bir pazar düşüşüne katkıda bulundu.

Daha geniş geleneksel pazarlar nispeten değişmeden kalırken, Bitcoin Cuma günü Avrupa saatlerinde 30.000 doların altına düştü. Eter (ETH) %3’ün üzerinde değer kaybetti. Diğer büyük sınırlar arasında, XRP son 24 saatte %6’ya kadar düşerken, Cardano’nun ADA’sı ve Avalanche’ın AVAX’ı aynı dönemde %4 düştü.

Başka yerlerde, Stellar’ın XLM’si, tacirlerin geçen haftaya göre %10’luk bir artışın ardından muhtemelen kar elde etmesi nedeniyle %6,6 düştü. Chainlink’in LINK’i, bu hafta başlarında CCIP protokolünün tanıtılmasıyla desteklenen Perşembe günü %15’lik bir artışın ardından yatay işlem gördü.

Some of the selling pressure may have arisen as U.S. House Republicans introduced a new digital assets oversight bill on Thursday that aims to establish a regulatory framework to protect investors in the crypto sector.

Analysts said parts of the revised bill exclude from the definition of “digital assets” a range of traditional securities such as stocks, bonds, “transferable share[s],” “certificate[s] of interest or participation in any profit-sharing agreement,” and so on.

“All they have to do is argue that a token is a “transferable share” “a profit interest” etc,” Gabriel Shapiro, general counsel at crypto fund Delphi Digital, tweeted. “XRP and such will be fine but DeFi can still be persecuted at will… actually the regulators will have expanded authority to do so.”

Kripto piyasasının piyasa değeri ağırlıklı performansını ölçmek için tasarlanmış geniş tabanlı bir endeks olan CoinDesk Piyasa Endeksi (CMI) %1,7 düştü.

Bu arada Coinglass analitik aracından alınan verilere göre, fiyatlardaki düşüş son 24 saatte 66 milyon doların üzerinde tasfiyeye neden oldu. Bu tasfiyelerin %70’inden biraz fazlası, uzun pozisyonlarda veya daha yüksek fiyatlar üzerine bahis yapan tacirlerden kaynaklanıyordu.

Tasfiyeler, tüccarlar, fiyatlar önceden belirlenmiş bir tasfiye seviyesine ulaştığında kaybedilen nispeten daha küçük bir başlangıç sermayesi kullanarak kripto fiyatları üzerine bahis oynamak için borsalardan borç aldıklarında meydana gelir.

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Bitcoin, Ether Headed Toward Losing Months in Usually Upbeat July

BTC could suffer its second monthly downturn of 2023, while ether seems headed for its first losing month.

Bitcoin continued a month-long stagnancy, logging a fourth consecutive week of less than 2% in price movement. Directionally, the largest asset by market capitalization closed the week down 1.3%, after rising 0.3% the week prior. With 10 days remaining in July, Bitcoin is poised to log its second losing month of 2023.

Ether followed a similar trajectory though its trading range has been wider with this week’s 1.63% decline following f a 3.24% increase last week. Ether has yet to log a losing month this year, but will need to surpass $1,934 over the next 10 days to maintain its winning streak. ETH was recently changing hands at $1,897, up 0.2%. July has been a historically positive month for digital assets.

BTC and ETH’s seven-day performance ranked them 26th and 29th in a list of cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization of $1 billion or more.

The weekly leader was peer-to-peer lending platform Maker (MKR), which rose more than 30% over the most recent seven days, and is up more than 120% year-to-date. XLM performed strongly as well, increasing more than 20% over the identical period. The currency which tends to correlate tightly with XRP is up 117% year to date.

They also stood out among the CoinDesk Market Indices (CMI) weekly rankings within their respective sectors.

XLM ranked first in the CMI currency sector, while MKR led in the DeFi sector.

Overall Currency and DeFi sector performance within the CMI universe was muted this week, with DeFi finishing up 1.3% and the currency sector falling 0.5%. The computing sector led all sectors this week, increasing 6.4%.

The leading component within the computing sector was Chainlink (LINK), an oracle network which serves as a bridge between on-chain and off-chain environments. The asset, up 45% year-to-date, rose close to 20% this week.

The CMI weekly laggard was the Smart Contract Platform sector, which was held down by EthereumPoW (ETHW), and MultiversX’s (EGLD) underperformance.

What’s on tap for next week

Investors next week will be eyeing Wednesday’s Fed Interest Rate decision.

The CME Fedwatch tool is currently assigning a 99.8% probability that the central bank will boost rates 25 basis points (bps). .

Markets will also likely be scrutinizing Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chair Jerome Powell’s comments following the rate decision. Given recent macroeconomic data, Powell is likely to echo his comments from the past month that while inflation has declined, it remains unacceptably high and that the Fed will have to renew its prescription of monetary tightening.

Bitcoin Dawdles Below $30K as Investors Eye Coming Fed Rate Decision, BTC Options Expiry

Next week’s U.S. central bank interest rate decision and the bitcoin options expiry are unlikely to move markets, which have been stuck for weeks.

In another day of crypto market drudgery, bitcoin (BTC) briefly feinted higher Friday before settling back into its increasingly familiar environs below $30,000. The largest digital asset by market capitalization was recently trading at $29,904, up 0.3%.

Ether (ETH), the second largest cryptocurrency, remained largely unfazed during the day, lingering at around its weekly low below $1,900. Major alternative cryptocurrencies – so-called altcoins – including SOL and XRP recovered some of their losses endured earlier in the day.

MKR, governance token of decentralized finance lender MakerDAO, defied the broader market and enjoyed double-digit gains, buoyed by the activation of a token buyback program.

But micro-cap token CNC cratered as much as 75% during the day following a 1,700 ETH – some $3.2 million – exploit of Conic Finance, a Curve-adjacent decentralized finance protocol.

The CoinDesk Market Index, which tracks the performance of a basket of digital assets, inched up 0.3% in the last 24 hours, underscoring a somewhat tepid trading day. Investors will be eyeing a likely Federal Reserve interest rate increase and bitcoin options expiry next week.

In an email, Rachel Lin, CEO and co-founder of decentralized derivatives exchange SynFutures noted that the week started with enthusiasm over a favorable ruling in the Ripple-SEC case as investors expressed hopes for an altcoin season. But BTC and ETH failed to break resistance and returned to their weekly range lows, weighing on the market.

“[Bitcoin] options data reveal high open interest in $31,000 and $32,000 Call Options, denoting strong resistance at these levels,” Lin said. “The past day has been more favorable, with call options trading nearly 3x the volume of put options.”

“Fundamentally, the outlook remains bullish as money continues to flow into the crypto ecosystem,” she added. “This could represent a brief reversal, potentially leading to a move up to $34,000 if BTC achieves a sustained breakout above $31,500.”

Priced-In Spot BTC ETF

In an interview with CoinDesk TV’s “First Mover” program, Will Peck, head of digital assets for asset manager WisdomTree, said that it was “tough” to pinpoint a near-term bitcoin price target. But he also suggested that the impact of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot bitcoin ETF from any of the financial services giants that filed applications last month, including WisdomTree, was uncertain.

“An underlying question is how much institutional money there might be out there,” Peck said.

Lawrence Lewitinn, head of content at The Tie and CoinDesk TV contributor, said that neither the U.S. central bank’s likely 25 basis point rate (bps) on Wednesday nor the end-of-month options expiry would likely stir bitcoin from its current lull.

“We’ll see for the most part prices stay flat, at least for the upcoming,” Lewitinn said. “Unless there’s some exogenous variable, some sort of crazy news story – who knows what [SEC Chair Gary] Gensler could do. But all things being equal, we’re probably going to end up at about $30,000, a slow week.”

BlackRock May Have Found Way to Get SEC Approval for Spot Bitcoin ETF

The hedge fund included a surveillance-sharing agreement in its proposal, which could eliminate the risk of market manipulation related to bitcoin.

Blackrock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this week might stand a better chance than previous attempts by other fund managers thanks to the promise of a “surveillance-sharing agreement” between exchanges.

Buried on page 36 of Blackrock’s 19b-4 filing with the SEC, the company states that to mitigate against market manipulation, it will bring in Nasdaq (NDAQ) to enter into a surveillance-sharing agreement with an operator of a spot trading platform for Bitcoin (BTC).

Surveillance-sharing agreements allow for the sharing of information about market trading activity, clearing activity, and customer identification, allowing for little possibility of market manipulation.

BlackRock’s proposed surveillance-sharing agreement, dubbed the “Spot BTC SSA,” is what makes this application different, and not simply the company’s size as the largest asset manager in the world, said Graeme Moore, Head of Tokenization, Polymesh Association.

“The SEC is very concerned with market manipulation related to Bitcoin prices, and has cited this in almost, if not all, previous rejections,” Moore said in an emailed statement. “This is because the SEC’s view is that Coinbase and others are not regulated as exchanges and therefore cannot be trusted to ‘prevent fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices’.”

However, industry veteran Dave Weisberger, CEO & Co-Founder of CoinRoutes, countered that any such surveillance-sharing agreement is superfluous.

“Why should it be necessary?” Weisberger said in an interview with CoinDesk.” Because Kraken, Coinbase, ItBit, Lmax and Bitstamp — all of their data feeds are public,” he added. “The SEC could clearly get all this data or hire someone to feed it to them. You can know every trade in every order, and that will give the SEC the ability to say, ‘Hey, this looks like a manipulative trade. So who did it?'”

The SEC has previously highlighted the importance of a surveillance-sharing agreements. In a notice in January regarding Cboe Digital’s request to list and trade shares of the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, agency officials said that “an exchange that lists bitcoin-based ETPs can meet its obligations under Exchange Act Section by demonstrating that the exchange has a comprehensive surveillance-sharing agreement with a regulated market of significant size related to the underlying or reference bitcoin assets.”

Blackrock’s iShares filed paperwork with the SEC on Thursday afternoon for the formation of a spot bitcoin ETF. The move comes after several other ETF proposals, including those of Grayscale, VanEck, and WisdomTree have previously been rejected.

Bitcoin Recrosses $26.3K to Hit Highest Level in a Week Amid BlackRock Optimism

Markets surged for a second time in the less than 24 hours following the fund management giant’s announcement that it had filed paperwork for the formation of a spot bitcoin ETF.

Less than 24 hours after fund management giant BlackRock filed paperwork for a spot bitcoin ETF, bitcoin recrossed $26,000 and soared to its highest level in a week.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was recently trading at $26,369, up nearly 5% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data. BTC was trading below $25,000 – near its three-month low – as recently as Thursday morning before settling at about $25,500 in the hours immediately following the BlackRock filing.

Ether, the second largest crypto in market value, was recently changing hands at $1,721, up 4.5% from Thursday, same time. Earlier this week, ETH lost the $1,700 threshold for the first time since mid March.

Other major cryptocurrencies, including those that tumbled following their mention in U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuits against exchanges Binance and Coinbase last week, regained large swathes of ground. SOL, the token of the Solana blockchain, was recently up more than 7%. ADA, MATIC and ALGO, the native cryptocurrencies of smart contract platforms Cardano, Polygon and Algorand, rose 3.5%, 3% and 4.1%, respectively.

The CoinDesk Market Index, a measure of the cryptocurrency market’s performance, increased 4.4%, although CoinDesk’s Bitcoin and Ether Trend Indicators remained in downturn territory, reflecting lingering investor worries about an industry being buffeted by increasing U.S. regulatory scrutiny, and inflation and monetary policy concerns.

The main equity indexes were trading sideways after seesawing earlier in the day with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite up slightly but the S&P 500, which has a hefty technology component, down a smidgen. Stocks have surged six consecutive days with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) all recently hitting 2023 highs. Gold and U.S. Treasury yields both ticked up.

In a speech Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that the central bank remained concerned about inflation, even as it has weathered criticism that its hawkishness precipitated a March crisis in the banking sector. Earlier this week, the Fed halted a 14-month diet of rate hikes that have often weighed heavily on crypto and other asset markets.

“The Fed’s job is to use monetary policy to achieve its dual mandate, and right now that means raising rates to fight inflation,” Waller said at an economics conference in Norway. “It is the job of bank leaders to deal with interest rate risk, and nearly all bank leaders have done exactly that. I do not support altering the stance of monetary policy over worries of ineffectual management at a few banks.”