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Bitcoin Dawdles Below $30K as Investors Eye Coming Fed Rate Decision, BTC Options Expiry

Next week’s U.S. central bank interest rate decision and the bitcoin options expiry are unlikely to move markets, which have been stuck for weeks.

In another day of crypto market drudgery, bitcoin (BTC) briefly feinted higher Friday before settling back into its increasingly familiar environs below $30,000. The largest digital asset by market capitalization was recently trading at $29,904, up 0.3%.

Ether (ETH), the second largest cryptocurrency, remained largely unfazed during the day, lingering at around its weekly low below $1,900. Major alternative cryptocurrencies – so-called altcoins – including SOL and XRP recovered some of their losses endured earlier in the day.

MKR, governance token of decentralized finance lender MakerDAO, defied the broader market and enjoyed double-digit gains, buoyed by the activation of a token buyback program.

But micro-cap token CNC cratered as much as 75% during the day following a 1,700 ETH – some $3.2 million – exploit of Conic Finance, a Curve-adjacent decentralized finance protocol.

The CoinDesk Market Index, which tracks the performance of a basket of digital assets, inched up 0.3% in the last 24 hours, underscoring a somewhat tepid trading day. Investors will be eyeing a likely Federal Reserve interest rate increase and bitcoin options expiry next week.

In an email, Rachel Lin, CEO and co-founder of decentralized derivatives exchange SynFutures noted that the week started with enthusiasm over a favorable ruling in the Ripple-SEC case as investors expressed hopes for an altcoin season. But BTC and ETH failed to break resistance and returned to their weekly range lows, weighing on the market.

“[Bitcoin] options data reveal high open interest in $31,000 and $32,000 Call Options, denoting strong resistance at these levels,” Lin said. “The past day has been more favorable, with call options trading nearly 3x the volume of put options.”

“Fundamentally, the outlook remains bullish as money continues to flow into the crypto ecosystem,” she added. “This could represent a brief reversal, potentially leading to a move up to $34,000 if BTC achieves a sustained breakout above $31,500.”

Priced-In Spot BTC ETF

In an interview with CoinDesk TV’s “First Mover” program, Will Peck, head of digital assets for asset manager WisdomTree, said that it was “tough” to pinpoint a near-term bitcoin price target. But he also suggested that the impact of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot bitcoin ETF from any of the financial services giants that filed applications last month, including WisdomTree, was uncertain.

“An underlying question is how much institutional money there might be out there,” Peck said.

Lawrence Lewitinn, head of content at The Tie and CoinDesk TV contributor, said that neither the U.S. central bank’s likely 25 basis point rate (bps) on Wednesday nor the end-of-month options expiry would likely stir bitcoin from its current lull.

“We’ll see for the most part prices stay flat, at least for the upcoming,” Lewitinn said. “Unless there’s some exogenous variable, some sort of crazy news story – who knows what [SEC Chair Gary] Gensler could do. But all things being equal, we’re probably going to end up at about $30,000, a slow week.”

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BlackRock May Have Found Way to Get SEC Approval for Spot Bitcoin ETF

The hedge fund included a surveillance-sharing agreement in its proposal, which could eliminate the risk of market manipulation related to bitcoin.

Blackrock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this week might stand a better chance than previous attempts by other fund managers thanks to the promise of a “surveillance-sharing agreement” between exchanges.

Buried on page 36 of Blackrock’s 19b-4 filing with the SEC, the company states that to mitigate against market manipulation, it will bring in Nasdaq (NDAQ) to enter into a surveillance-sharing agreement with an operator of a spot trading platform for Bitcoin (BTC).

Surveillance-sharing agreements allow for the sharing of information about market trading activity, clearing activity, and customer identification, allowing for little possibility of market manipulation.

BlackRock’s proposed surveillance-sharing agreement, dubbed the “Spot BTC SSA,” is what makes this application different, and not simply the company’s size as the largest asset manager in the world, said Graeme Moore, Head of Tokenization, Polymesh Association.

“The SEC is very concerned with market manipulation related to Bitcoin prices, and has cited this in almost, if not all, previous rejections,” Moore said in an emailed statement. “This is because the SEC’s view is that Coinbase and others are not regulated as exchanges and therefore cannot be trusted to ‘prevent fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices’.”

However, industry veteran Dave Weisberger, CEO & Co-Founder of CoinRoutes, countered that any such surveillance-sharing agreement is superfluous.

“Why should it be necessary?” Weisberger said in an interview with CoinDesk.” Because Kraken, Coinbase, ItBit, Lmax and Bitstamp — all of their data feeds are public,” he added. “The SEC could clearly get all this data or hire someone to feed it to them. You can know every trade in every order, and that will give the SEC the ability to say, ‘Hey, this looks like a manipulative trade. So who did it?'”

The SEC has previously highlighted the importance of a surveillance-sharing agreements. In a notice in January regarding Cboe Digital’s request to list and trade shares of the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, agency officials said that “an exchange that lists bitcoin-based ETPs can meet its obligations under Exchange Act Section by demonstrating that the exchange has a comprehensive surveillance-sharing agreement with a regulated market of significant size related to the underlying or reference bitcoin assets.”

Blackrock’s iShares filed paperwork with the SEC on Thursday afternoon for the formation of a spot bitcoin ETF. The move comes after several other ETF proposals, including those of Grayscale, VanEck, and WisdomTree have previously been rejected.

Bitcoin Recrosses $26.3K to Hit Highest Level in a Week Amid BlackRock Optimism

Markets surged for a second time in the less than 24 hours following the fund management giant’s announcement that it had filed paperwork for the formation of a spot bitcoin ETF.

Less than 24 hours after fund management giant BlackRock filed paperwork for a spot bitcoin ETF, bitcoin recrossed $26,000 and soared to its highest level in a week.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was recently trading at $26,369, up nearly 5% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data. BTC was trading below $25,000 – near its three-month low – as recently as Thursday morning before settling at about $25,500 in the hours immediately following the BlackRock filing.

Ether, the second largest crypto in market value, was recently changing hands at $1,721, up 4.5% from Thursday, same time. Earlier this week, ETH lost the $1,700 threshold for the first time since mid March.

Other major cryptocurrencies, including those that tumbled following their mention in U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuits against exchanges Binance and Coinbase last week, regained large swathes of ground. SOL, the token of the Solana blockchain, was recently up more than 7%. ADA, MATIC and ALGO, the native cryptocurrencies of smart contract platforms Cardano, Polygon and Algorand, rose 3.5%, 3% and 4.1%, respectively.

The CoinDesk Market Index, a measure of the cryptocurrency market’s performance, increased 4.4%, although CoinDesk’s Bitcoin and Ether Trend Indicators remained in downturn territory, reflecting lingering investor worries about an industry being buffeted by increasing U.S. regulatory scrutiny, and inflation and monetary policy concerns.

The main equity indexes were trading sideways after seesawing earlier in the day with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite up slightly but the S&P 500, which has a hefty technology component, down a smidgen. Stocks have surged six consecutive days with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) all recently hitting 2023 highs. Gold and U.S. Treasury yields both ticked up.

In a speech Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that the central bank remained concerned about inflation, even as it has weathered criticism that its hawkishness precipitated a March crisis in the banking sector. Earlier this week, the Fed halted a 14-month diet of rate hikes that have often weighed heavily on crypto and other asset markets.

“The Fed’s job is to use monetary policy to achieve its dual mandate, and right now that means raising rates to fight inflation,” Waller said at an economics conference in Norway. “It is the job of bank leaders to deal with interest rate risk, and nearly all bank leaders have done exactly that. I do not support altering the stance of monetary policy over worries of ineffectual management at a few banks.”

Synthetix Community Approves Plan to Nudge Positions Off Soon-to-Shut Version One of Its Perpetuals Market

The market, which was replaced by a new version, has been in close-only mode for months, but about $150,000 remains on the original platform.

Community members of Synthetix, a liquidity and derivatives trading protocol built on Ethereum, approved a plan intended to get customer money still on the soon-to-shut version one (v1) of its perpetuals market moved over to version two (v2).

Though v1 has been winding down for the past three months, roughly $150,000 worth of positions remain outstanding. The approved plan will gradually increase the margin requirements on existing positions to eventually liquidate all remaining positions on v1.

The change highlights Synthetix’s focus on its v2 perpetuals markets, which had $22 million in volume over the past day, data from a dashboard created by the Synthetix community shows. Synthetix’s v2 perpetuals markets, which launched in December, increases capital efficiency and improves risk management for market liquidity providers, representing a “significant upgrade” from v1, according to a blog post.

The motivation behind the recent governance proposal was to shut down Synthetix’s v1 perpetuals market “in the least intrusive manner,” allowing users to close their positions with enough time, as stated in a Synthetix’s governance discussion forum.

The price of SNX, the native token for Synthetix, has increased 1.7% in the past 24 hours to $2.36, per CoinGecko, while data from DefiLlama shows that the total value locked for Synthetix stands at $417.7 million, a 2% increase since May 1.