Prizmabet

Bitcoin Dominance Nears 3-Year High Amid Altcoin Weakness; Aptos Outperforms as SUI Drops

Bitcoin held above the $60,000 key support level, while Ethereum’s ETH fell to near its weakest level against BTC since mid-September.

Bitcoin (BTC) once again was teetering above the $60,000 level on Thursday, while smaller cryptocurrencies tumbled amid geopolitical turmoil and the surging U.S. dollar.

BTC rebounded to $61,500 during the Asian trading hours from Wednesday’s very brief dip below $60,000, but turned lower during the European and U.S. sessions. The largest cryptocurrency changed hands around $60,700 recently, up 1% over the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, the broad-market benchmark CoinDesk 20 Index fell 1.5% during the same period, indicating the weakness in the rest of the digital asset market relative to BTC. Ethereum’s ether (ETH) was down 1%, while Ripple’s XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX) and Render (RNDR) led losses among altcoin majors.

One notable outperformer was layer-1 blockchain Aptos’ (APT) native token gaining 7% for the day. Wednesday news of Franklin Templeton expanding its tokenized money market fund to that blockchain may explain that outperformance, while some observers speculated that traders rotated some profits from close competitor network Sui’s (SUI) 110% rally in a month.

Bitcoin’s outperformance over the broader market meant that BTC’s market share of the total crypto market capitalization – also known as Bitcoin Dominance – climbed above 58%, while the ETH-to-BTC ratio dropped near its mid-September trough of 0.038.

“Bitcoin dominance continues to trend higher, and it is now just 0.2% away from a new three-year high,” said James Van Straten, a senior analyst at CoinDesk.

U.S. dollar surging

The overall dismal week for crypto happened with increasing concerns about military escalation in the Middle East, which sent crude oil prices near $74 a barrel, the highest in more than a month, while the U.S. dollar hit its strongest level against key currencies since mid-August.

Thursday’s stronger-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing data also supported dollar strength, which usually weighs on prices for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

“We saw more solid services data from the U.S., which pushed the U.S. dollar index (DXY) closer to 102, giving a 70% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the November meeting,” Van Straten said.

What may have exacerbated dollar strength and the general risk-off move on asset markets in early October is a spike in Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), a key borrowing interest rate between banks that could be a signal of liquidity stress, Steno Research’s Samuel Shiffman noted in a report.

The report added that the situation is reminiscent – albeit on a smaller scale – of the repo crisis in September 2019, when the Federal Reserve was forced to intervene to end dysfunction in key lending markets.

“We are nearing levels where liquidity pain becomes acute,” Shiffman said, adding that the Fed “could feel tempted to address it” by adding liquidity to the financial system.

Another important catalyst for markets will be Friday’s U.S. jobs report. “A combination of expected rate cuts and labor strength could boost risk assets,” crypto hedge fund QCP Capital said.

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Bitcoin Set for Unusually Volatile Weekend After Friday’s Payrolls Data, Volatility Kink Indicates

BTC’s implied volatility curve shows a noticeable kink on Oct. 5, signaling expectations for an unusually volatile Saturday.

The bitcoin (BTC) bull run since October last year has seen mostly quiet weekends, but that’s about to change, according to a key metric.

At press time, bitcoin’s “implied volatility term structure” indicates bigger price swings on Saturday than on days leading up to Oct. 25, according to Deribit options data tracked by Arbelos Markets.

The term structure is a graphical representation of options-determined implied or expected volatilities (IV) at different expiration dates. It is usually upward sloping, with longer duration options trading pricer in terms of implied volatility relative to short duration ones.

However, as of writing, the curve exhibited a kink, with options expiring on Oct. 5 trading at an annualized IV of 51.44%, notably higher than options expiring on Oct. 6, Oct. 11, Oct. 18, and Oct. 25.

In other words, traders are pricing more significant price swings for Saturday, possibly anticipating increased volatility following Friday’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) release and amid geopolitical tensions, according to Joshua Lim, co-founder of Arbelos Markets.

“There’s a very noticeable kink in the vol curve – Friday (Oct. 4) is trading around 39 vol and Saturday (Oct. 5) is trading 51 vol. The market is pricing in a risk premium from nonfarm payrolls data, but more importantly, some probability of an Israeli retaliation post-Rosh Hashanah,” Lim told CoinDesk.

Focus on payrolls

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the NFP on Friday at 12:30 UTC. Per FXStreet, the data is expected to show that the economy added 140,000 jobs in September, following August’s weaker-than-expected increase of 142,000. The jobless rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2%, with the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly earnings matching August’s pace of 3.8%.

According to ING, risks are skewed in favor of hawkish repricing of 25 basis points Fed rate cuts in November and December and dollar strength unless the data misses expectations big margin.

The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points (bps) last month, torching a rally in risk assets, including BTC. Currently, markets expect at least another 50 bps cut by the year-end.

“The pricing for year-end Fed funds continues to largely embed a 50 bps cut in either November or December, meaning room for further re-alignment with the Fed’s less dovish rhetoric and consequently upside risks for the dollar. We sense that the bar for a dollar-negative reaction to U.S. data today and tomorrow is probably higher after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent pushback against 50 bps reductions,” ING said in a note to clients.

A stronger dollar often weighs over risk assets, including BTC and traditional safe havens like gold.

Volatile middle east situation

On Oct 1, Iran fired at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, ratcheting up tensions and risk of a full-blown war and leading to a broad-based risk aversion. BTC dropped over 4% on the same, eventually testing the $60,000 support.

Per ING, investors are now on high alert, awaiting Israel’s retaliation against Iran, leading to a rally in crude prices and a stronger dollar index.

A potential action over the weekend, when traditional markets are closed, could see both traditional and crypto traders express their views in the digital assets market, leading to an unusually volatile weekend.

Tether’s USDT Has Uses Beyond Crypto Markets, Trading: CEO Paolo Ardoino

Ardoino said there’s more of a need for stablecoins outside the U.S., especially in countries with rampant inflation and shoddy financial infrastructure.

Tether’s USDT may have started as a cryptocurrency, but today the largest stablecoin by market value is the most used digital dollar in the world, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said in an interview with Bullish CEO Tom Farley.

Bullish is the owner of CoinDesk and a significant holder of USDT.

Stablecoins, cryptocurrencies whose value is pegged to a real-world asset, form the backbone of crypto trading. They provide a way to store value within the cryptocurrency market without worrying about the fluctuations of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin (BTC). Most are linked 1:1 to the U.S. dollar, though some reflect other currencies and assets such as gold.

But there’s more to USDT than crypto markets, Ardoino said. In countries like Argentina and Turkey, the stablecoin provides a lifeline as an alternative to volatile national currencies. Before the widespread adoption of USDT, people in inflation-stricken countries had to resort to the black market to get dollars.

“USDT works much better outside of the U.S.,” he said. “In the U.S., there are 15 different transport layers for the U.S. dollar. You have banks, credit cards, debit cards. You have Venmo, PayPal, Cash App, and many others … But who needs a dollar?”

That might help explain why USDT is not only the largest stablecoin, with a market cap of almost $120 billion, it’s the third-largest cryptocurrency overall. Only bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) are larger. And it’s more than three times the size of its nearest rival, Circle’s $35.6 billion USDC.

More than half of USDT – $61 billion – is issued on the Tron blockchain, with $54.3 billion on Ethereum, the blockchain most widely associated with decentralized finance (DeFi). That’s because it’s significantly cheaper to conduct transactions on Tron, Ardoino said.

According to Etherscan, the transaction costs known as gas fees for a simple swap on Ethereum average around $14.60. On Tron, it’s closer to 20 cents.

“Imagine someone living in Haiti that earns $1.34 per day. How can they pay $5 for transaction fees?” he said. “These markets cannot afford to pay five, six dollars per transaction on Ethereum or some other chain.”

Ardoino also discussed another angle where stablecoins and geopolitics intersect: Treasury bills. The debt provides backing for the cryptocurrency, easily switchable into dollars if USDT holders want to cash out. And, in the meantime, the interest payments roll into Tether’s coffers.

While the Beijing government, the second-largest holder of U.S. government debt, continues to trim China’s holdings of U.S. Treasury bills, stablecoin issuers like Tether have had a voracious appetite for them, scooping up just over $100 billion worth as the People’s Bank of China dumps them.

If Tether were a country, data shows, it would have holdings equivalent to Germany and would be closing in on South Korea.

“We added resiliency to the ownership of the U.S. dollar, so now you don’t have one single country, one single decision maker that can sell hundreds of billions of T-bills at once,” Ardoino said. “USDT and Tether are the best friends for the U.S. dollar.”

Cantor has most of Tether’s reserves

For most of its history, the state of Tether’s reserves has been a big question mark, and for good reason.

During its early days the company was repeatedly de-banked and was a bit of a vagabond, having to open and close accounts around the world from Qatar to China, Taiwan and Canada.

When USDT’s backing was unclear, CoinDesk fought to have the full details of Tether’s banking relationships released by the New York State Attorney General, which had obtained them during an investigation. The stablecoin is banned in New York as part of a settlement). Initially, the NYAG opposed CoinDesk’s Freedom of Information Law (FOIL) request for details about the reserves, but a judge dismissed their case.

Now, things have changed and the relationship is more simple: Most of the money is managed by financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald with the bank’s CEO, Howard Lutnick, regularly vouching for the stablecoin issuer.

Ardoino said that Lutnick would have a perfect line of sight into the reserves backing USDT, and Tether completes the same style of attestation by a large accounting firm as its competitors.

“Whoever believes in these conspiracy theories should get out from their mother’s basement,” he said, referring to speculation the company doesn’t have sufficient backing for USDT.

The market doesn’t seem to.

A Polymarket contract gives a 4% chance that Tether will declare insolvency in 2024, which is lower than the market’s belief that a nuclear weapon will be used this year, which comes in at 9%.

Crypto at a Pivotal Moment

The U.S. election combined with an easier monetary environment could spark the next crypto bull market, says David Lawant.

Seismic events often trigger crypto-asset market cycle transitions. The 2016-2017 cycle was largely industry-driven, expanding crypto’s reach beyond early adopters. In contrast, the 2020-2021 surge was propelled by unprecedented COVID-era interest rate cuts.

Now, two powerful catalysts converge: the looming 2024 U.S. elections and a nascent global liquidity cycle for risk assets. This potent combination could shatter bitcoin’s $58,000 to $70,000 trading range, where it has largely remained since late March, potentially igniting the next major market movement.

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2024 U.S. elections likely to gain importance as election day nears

This election cycle marks several firsts for crypto, primarily how the industry emerged as a relevant topic in political discourse and campaign financing. Another interesting trend is how Polymarket, a breakthrough crypto application, now provides real-time estimates of consensus on election results, with over $1 billion at stake.

The chart below shows the relationship between two factors over 3-day periods: changes in Republican win odds on Polymarket and changes in bitcoin prices as a proxy for overall crypto market performance. Different election phases are color-coded: gray for the initial phase (before June 26), red for the period of Republican momentum (between the end of June and the end of July), blue for Democratic gains (between the end of July and mid-August), and black for the final stretch (since mid-August).

If the market linked crypto prices directly to Republican win odds, the dots in the chart above would form an upward-sloping 45-degree line. Conversely, a direct link to Democratic win odds would show a similar, but downward-sloping, line. Instead, we see a scattered cloud of dots, indicating no clear, consistent trend between election outcomes and crypto prices so far.

This dynamic is evident across all phases highlighted in different colors throughout the scatterplot. Although the relationship is stronger during the phase of Republican momentum, it still explains less than 20% of bitcoin price movements.

This doesn’t mean the elections are unimportant for crypto price action. It is possible, if not likely, that this relationship strengthens as we approach Election Day, now less than one month away. But this inconsistent relationship suggests that other critical factors have also been dominating crypto market price action.

Interest rate outlook hints at novel regime for crypto prices

Recent global liquidity shifts have driven markets worldwide, including crypto. The Federal Reserve’s strong start to this rate-cut cycle, coupled with China’s surprising market-lifting measures, likely fueled crypto’s recent price surge.

Unlike equities, crypto lacks extensive historical data for gauging returns across different interest rate regimes.

Nevertheless, examining crypto prices against rate environments remains instructive. The chart below shows the effective federal funds rate alongside Treasury constant-maturity yields from 1-year to 30-year tenors. For context, the lower chart displays bitcoin’s USD price (in log scale for perspective), with color-coded market cycles: green for the 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 bull markets, red for the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.

This chart suggests that a soft landing with lower rates — the current investor consensus — would create an unprecedented macro backdrop for crypto. This scenario differs from both the industry-driven 2016-2017 cycle and the COVID era, rate-cut-fueled, 2020-2021 surge.

Consequently, macroeconomic factors are expected to significantly influence crypto prices in the near term, as evidenced by strengthening correlations between crypto and broader risk assets.

Looking ahead

Low crypto liquidity following Labor Day indicates a market in wait-and-see mode. While factors such as geopolitical tensions and supply/demand imbalances can still influence the market, two primary drivers most likely to define market direction into 2025 are still the upcoming election and global liquidity conditions. The next one to three months will be crucial in revealing how these trends will unfold.

Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.

Fan Tokens Have Much Larger Market Than NFTs, Says Chiliz CEO as Blockchain Prepares New Memecoin ‘Pepper’

Chiliz CEO Alexandre Dreyfusal called out the disproportionate hype around NFTs in comparison to fan tokens in an interview with CoinDesk.

SINGAPORE — The Chiliz blockchain is aiming to become “the sports blockchain,” its CEO Alexandre Dreyfus said in an interview with CoinDesk while calling fan tokens’ market is much larger than non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

Dreyfus also said that, starting October 10, Chiliz is planning on launching a memecoin called Pepper. The reason for the new memecoin is “well, Chili Pepper,” he said.

The Chiliz blockchain’s native token is CHZ and it powers Socios.com, the largest sports fan token creator platform. Pepper will be airdropped to CHZ token holders but not for U.S. citizens and it can be farmed. Upbit crypto exchange in South Korea was the first exchange which announced its listing.

In March, leading up to the 2024 UEFA Euro football championships, prices of the CHZ token rose 25% in seven days, reaching a two-month high of over $0.15. It has since fallen to $0.068, according to CoinDesk data. It remains the number one sports token in the world by market cap.

“The chain is becoming what we aimed it to become, which is the sports blockchain,” said Dreyfus. “It’s unique. We are the only ones doing what we do. And we don’t want to do anything else.”

NFTs vs. fan tokens

Dreyfus is looking to change the narrative around fan tokens, stating that their growth was under-recognized in comparison to NFTs.

“No offence to the NFT community but what people don’t realize [is that] fan tokens are a much bigger market than NFTs,” he said pointing to data that largely reflected the current 24-hour volume for NFTs at around $6.8 million, while for fan tokens it’s at $134 million, according to Coingecko.

“Of course, we’re comparing apples and oranges. One is fungible the other is non-fungible. But nobody does anything with it [NFTs]. With fan tokens every single week people are going to stadiums and voting.”

Although NFTs might have less trading volume currently, at the peak of the bull market, they became the next big thing in the digital assets sector as celebrities and big brands embraced the idea of unique digital assets that are verified using blockchain. At the time, the idea of having distinct and irreplaceable assets gained prominence within various communities, including digital art, music, videos and gambling.

Meanwhile, fan tokens are digital assets that represent membership to a community such as a sports team’s fan base. Token holders of specific teams can express their support while receiving specific perks, including game tickets and some participation in a sports club’s decision-making.

‘Biggest sports broker in the world’

Dreyfus founded Chiliz with the vision to recognize that “95% of sports fans are not in the stadium, the city or the country of the team they’re supporting,” so, we wanted to create something that is “both valuable for the fan and scalable for the team.”

“After signing Paris Saint-Germain F.C. (French football club) as our first team in 2018, we now work with more than 80 sports properties all over the world with 300 employees in nine offices,” Dreyfus said.

Each team that signs up has its own token but the CHZ token acts as a governance token on Ethereum and Dreyfus said that his firm has now created a network of the “biggest sports broker in the world.” It’s given fans the ability to make some decisions, even if they are soft decisions, such as deciding which song will play when a goal is scored as it happened when Cristiano Ronaldo scored thrice for Juventus once.

“This is the perfect example of how something on chain changed something in real life,” Dreyfus said. “Only the token holders could choose the music. And they were not able to do it before. So, soft or not soft, it doesn’t matter.”

In 2021, Socios signed 27 NBA teams and 13 NFL teams but did not launch a token, it also signed several cricket teams in the Indian Premier League. Dreyfus said Socios has regulatory licenses in Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Lithuania, and noted that “apart from crypto exchanges, it’s the most regulated” crypto entity in the world.

“We had to go through the same work as an exchange, except that we don’t do bitcoin and Ethereum, we just do fan tokens.”

Turkey (one million users) and Brazil (500,000 users) are its biggest markets.

Eylül’de üretici market fiyat farkında ilk beş belli oldu

Türkiye Ziraat Odaları Birliği (TZOB) Genel Başkanı Şemsi Bayraktar, eylülde üretici ve market arasındaki en fazla fiyat farkının yüzde 249 ile havuçta görüldüğünü bildirdi.

Bayraktar, yazılı açıklamasında, eylül ayı üretici ile market fiyatları arasında oluşan farklara ilişkin değerlendirmede bulundu.

Eylülde üretici ve market arasındaki fiyat farkının en fazla yüzde 249 ile havuçta görüldüğünü bildiren Bayraktar, havuçtaki fiyat farkını yüzde 219,8 ile limonun, yüzde 212,9 ile kuru kayısının, yüzde 212,2 ile kuru soğanın ve yüzde 205,6 ile patatesin takip ettiğini belirtti.

Bayraktar, “Havuç 3,5 kat, limon 3,2 kat, kuru kayısı, kuru soğan ve patates 3,1 kat fazlaya satıldı. Üreticide 7 lira 50 kuruş olan havuç 26 lira 18 kuruşa, 11 lira 50 kuruş olan limon 36 lira 78 kuruşa, 130 lira olan kuru kayısı 406 lira 76 kuruşa, 5 lira 60 kuruş olan kuru soğan 17 lira 48 kuruşa, 4 lira 70 kuruş olan patates 14 lira 36 kuruşa markette satıldı.” ifadelerini kullandı.

Şemsi Bayraktar, eylülde markette 36 ürünün 23’ünde fiyat artışı, 13’ünde de fiyat düşüşü görüldüğünü kaydetti.

Markette fiyatı en fazla artan ürünün yüzde 32,7 ile kuru incir olduğuna işaret eden Bayraktar, “Kuru incirdeki fiyat artışını yüzde 20,5 ile yeşil fasulye, yüzde 14,1 ile sivri biber, yüzde 14 ile yumurta takip etti. Markette fiyatı en fazla azalan ürün ise yüzde 30 ile limon oldu. Limondaki fiyat düşüşünü yüzde 22,8 ile havuç, yüzde 21,6 ile salatalık, yüzde 15,9 ile maydanoz izledi.” bilgisini verdi.

Bayraktar, eylülde üreticide 28 ürünün 12’sinde fiyat artışı, 13’ünde fiyat düşüşü görüldüğünü, 3 üründe ise fiyat değişimi olmadığını belirtti.

Üreticide en çok fiyat düşüşünün yüzde 24,3 ile yeşil soğanda görüldüğünü aktaran Bayraktar, “Yeşil soğandaki fiyat düşüşünü yüzde 22,8 ile maydanoz, yüzde 18,2 ile marul ve kuru fasulye izledi. Üreticide en çok fiyat artışı yüzde 48,6 ile kabakta görüldü. Kabaktaki fiyat artışını yüzde 31,8 ile yeşil fasulye, yüzde 20,4 ile salatalık, yüzde 20 ile sivri biber izledi.” ifadelerini kullandı.

“DEVLET PATATES VE KURU SOĞANA MÜDAHALE ETMELİ”

Bayraktar, yeşil soğan, maydanoz, marul ve kuru fasulye arzındaki artışların, bu ürünlerin fiyatlarına düşüş olarak yansıdığını belirterek, şunları kaydetti:

“Kışlık patateste hasat başladı. Bu yıl geçen yıla göre yaklaşık 1,5 milyon ton fazla patates üretimi olacağı tahmin ediliyor. Geçen yıl eylülde patateste üretici fiyatı ortalama 9,5 lira iken, bu yıl yaklaşık yüzde 50 düşüşle 4,7 lira seviyesine geriledi. Üreticilerimiz patatesi 4,7 liraya satarken, tüketici marketten 3 katı fiyatına satın alıyor. Kışlık patateste depo ve işçilik giderleri maliyetleri daha da artırıyor. Artan maliyetler nedeniyle üreticilerimiz borçlarını ödeyememe korkusu yaşamaya başladı. Ülkemiz kuru soğan üretiminde de bir önceki yıla göre yaklaşık 200 bin ton artış olacağı tahmin ediliyor. Kuru soğan ve patates üreticilerimiz, arzda yaşanan bu artış sonucu fiyatların daha fazla düşmesi endişesini taşıyor. Kısıtlı açılan kuru soğan ihracatının tamamen açılması, yeni pazarlar bulunması ve önceki yıllarda olduğu gibi Toprak Mahsulleri Ofisinin devreye girerek patates ve kuru soğana müdahale etmesi gerekiyor. Devlet eliyle yapılacak patates ve kuru soğan alımlarında, üreticilere verilecek her türlü hizmette ziraat odalarına da görev verilmelidir.”

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Celestia’s TIA Posts Biggest Monthly Gain This Year Even as Impending $1.13B Token Unlock Spurs Hedging

TIA has outperformed the CoinDesk 20 Index by a wide margin.

TIA, the token of data-availability blockchain network Celestia, posted its best monthly gain this year, outperforming the broader market by a significant margin and confounding traders who’d positioned for a drop in the price as the result of a $1.13 billion token unlock due next month.

The market-beating 40% surge, the biggest since December 2023, contrasts with a 13% gain in the CoinDesk 20 Index, a measure of the largest, most liquid cryptocurrencies. It takes place against a background of some market participants seeking downside hedges due to concerns the massive token unlock due Oct. 31 will flood the market and depress prices.

Next month’s unlock will release 175.74 million TIA. That’s 16% of the cryptocurrency’s total supply and worth $1.13 billion, or 82% of the market capitalization, according to data source CryptoRank. Such large unlocks often create bearish pressures in the market.

“There has been an uptick in TIA hedging demand ahead of the Oct. 31 unlock – both via exchange-traded perpetuals, alongside OTC forward agreements with market makers/trading desks,” Jake Ostovskis, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, told CoinDesk in a Telegram chat.

Short squeeze

The bias for shorts, likely stemming from the hedging activity, might have led to a “short squeeze,” contributing to the TIA rally. A short squeeze happens when the asset price remains resilient, contrary to expectations, forcing bears to close their positions, which are bets that an asset will drop. That, in turn, puts upward pressure on prices.

“Traders tried to sell ahead of the [unlock] event from Julyish. I’d argue the squeeze has already happened,” Ostovskis said.

That’s evident from the recovery in funding rates tied to TIA perpetuals, which have rebounded to nearly zero, or neutral, having been in negative territory since July. As suggested by Ostovskis, rates below zero are a sign of traders taking bearish bets to protect against the downside price risk posed by the influx of so many tokens.

The recovery to neutral alongside the TIA price rally suggests shorts have been crowded out and might have inadvertently squeezed the price higher.

The $100 million fundraise

A $100 million fundraise announced this week likely gave bears another solid reason to exit shorts, adding upward momentum. The fresh round raised the foundation’s cash stash to $155 million, although the team did not detail how it plans to use the funds.

Some pseudonymous observers have suggested the fundraising was an OTC deal at a $3.4 billion valuation directly with the foundation, with the token sale priced at $3 and one-third of the same to be unlocked on Oct. 31.

According to Ostovskis, the impending unlock may have been priced in.

“Some commentators have seen their OTC sale sales as controversial, however, the result that a large cliff has been removed and enabling the pre-hedging unlocks has overall been positive, allowing the market to price in this event in advance,” Ostovskis noted.

First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Nears $66K After Monster ETF Day

The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Sept. 27, 2024.

This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.

Latest Prices

CoinDesk 20 Index: 2,090.20 +1.76%
Bitcoin (BTC): $65,567.06 +1.8%
Ether (ETH): $2,649.73 +0.83%
S&P 500: 5,745.37 +0.4%
Gold: $2,666.73 -0.22%
Nikkei 225: 39,829.56 +2.32%

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Bitcoin closed in on a return to $66,000, climbing to its highest point since the start of August. BTC rose to over $65,900 during mid-morning in Europe, an increase of over 3% in the previous 24 hours. Bitcoin then retreated to trade just above $65,500. Spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. enjoyed a monster day on Thursday, registering inflows of $365 million and bringing the weekly total to over $600 million. The broader digital asset market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index, is also higher by around 1.8%, with dogecoin leading the gains. DOGE jumped around 9% to nearly $0.125 amid a surge in memecoin prices.

China’s plans for a huge stimulus package lit a fire under memecoins, with both SHIB and FLOKI registering double-digit gains. Memecoin prices tend to respond positively to liquidity injections because the increased availability of cash nurtures a greater appetite for risk among traders. Memecoins are community-driven and jump when the market displays risk-on behavior. “Leading the gains are the SOL and BTC ecosystems, indicating a strong focus on meme coins as overall liquidity grows. While not nearly as explosive as meme coins on the aforementioned chains, meme coins on Ethereum, such as $PEPE and $SHIB, are also experiencing heightened interest from the market,” HashKey OTC CEO Li Liang said.

TIA, the token of data-availability network Celestia, posted its best monthly gain this year, confounding traders who’d positioned for a drop in the price as the result of a $1.13 billion token unlock due next month. September’s market-beating 40% surge takes place against a background of some market participants seeking downside hedges due to concerns the token unlock due Oct. 31, equivalent to 16% of its total supply, will flood the market and depress prices. However, the bias for shorts, likely stemming from the hedging activity, might have led to a short squeeze, contributing to the TIA rally. “Traders tried to sell ahead of the [unlock] event from Julyish. I’d argue the squeeze has already happened,” Jake Ostovskis, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, told CoinDesk.

Chart of the Day

– Omkar Godbole

The Fed Pivot is Finally Here

Last week, the Fed cut its federal funds target rate by 50 bps to 5.00% p.a. (upper limit) which could have strong implications for the crypto community, says Andre Dragosh, head of research Europe, CoinShares.

“The time has come,” stated Fed chairman Jerome Powell back in August at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. Last week, the Fed cut its federal funds target rate by 50 bps to 5.00% p.a. (upper limit) which was slightly more than markets had priced in before the FOMC meeting. In other words, the Fed positively surprised markets with this rate cut.

It is quite likely that the Fed is just getting started with rate cuts. At the time of writing, the market already expects 3 additional cuts (75 bps) by year-end and another 5 cuts (125 bps) next year through December 2025. The Fed has also telegraphed additional cuts via its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) (aka “dot plot”).

Nonetheless, despite this more-than-expected interest rate reduction of 50 bps, it is quite likely that the Fed still remains “behind the curve.”

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For instance, a standard Taylor rule based on the unemployment rate and core PCE inflation implies that a fed funds target rate of around 3.6% p.a. is already warranted based on the underlying economic and inflationary momentum.

In addition, the latest fund manager survey by Bank of America indicates that monetary policy was still “too restrictive” in September 2024 – in fact, the most restrictive since October 2008 according to this survey.

There still remains an increased risk of a recession as several reliable indicators such as the prominent “Sahm rule” remain triggered.

That being said, our quantitative analyses imply that global growth has become less relevant for the performance of bitcoin while other factors like monetary policy or the US dollar have become more important.

In other words, a US recession might not be as negative as widely anticipated for bitcoin and other cryptoassets. To the contrary, it may lead to even more Fed rate cut expectations and US Dollar weakness which could provide even more tailwind.

With the latest move by the Fed and other major central banks, the global liquidity tide is clearly turning; global money supply has already reached new all-time highs and is accelerating. Expansionary money supply growth periods are usually associated with bitcoin bull runs.

The re-steepening of the US yield curve which tends to be a recessionary indicator is also an indicator for increasing liquidity and therefore bullish for scarce assets like bitcoin.

What is more is that the increase in global liquidity is coinciding with the increasing supply scarcity of bitcoin which has been intensifying since the latest halving in April 2024.

Our analyses have shown that there tends to be a significant lag between the halving event itself and the moment the supply shock starts to become significant, as the supply deficit only tends to accumulate gradually over time.

So, it appears as if there is a perfect confluence between an increase in potential demand via global money supply and a simultaneous reduction in available supply via the halving.

The market has been mired in “chopsolidation” – a choppy consolidating range-bound market – since the latest all-time high in March 2024. This was due to several factors such as government sales of bitcoin, Mt. Gox trustee’s distribution of bitcoins, or the macro capitulation in early August 2024.

In this context, the summer months have generally been one of the worst performing months for bitcoin historically with September being the worst month of the year.

However, Q4 tends to be the best month for bitcoin from a pure performance seasonality perspective and we also expect bitcoin to break out of this chopsolidation in Q4.

It seems as if the wait for a new break-out to the upside is finally over. The Fed pivot may have just delivered the perfect catalyst for that.

Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.

Sabancı Holding’in Ortağı Olduğu, Bir Zamanların Büyük Market Zinciri DiaSA Nereye Kayboldu? (Pek Uzağa Gitmiş Sayılmaz!)

Bir zamanlar neredeyse her mahallede karşımıza çıkan, uygun fiyatları ve erişilebilirliğiyle dikkat çeken DiaSA ne oldu da ortadan bir anda kayboldu? Bu içerikte anlatıyoruz.

1979 yılında İspanya’da kurulan ve kısa sürede birçok ülkeye yayılan bir indirim marketi zinciri olan Dia’nın Türkiye pazarına girmeye karar vermesiyle, Türk tüketici DiaSA olarak akıllarda kalan marketlerle ilk olarak Dia ismi ile tanışıyor.

1999 yılında Türkiye pazarına giren Dia, başlangıçta kendi başına faaliyet gösterse de 2000 yılında Sabancı Holding ile ortaklık kurarak DiaSA ismini alıyor.

CarrefourSA ile hipermarket alanında büyüyen Sabancı Holding’in, indirim marketi alanında da gücünü göstermek istemesi ile DiaSA hızla büyümeye başlıyor.

DiaSA, küçük market konsepti ve düşük fiyat politikasıyla hızla büyüyerek BİM gibi indirim marketleriyle aynı dönemde, özellikle dar gelirli ailelerin gözdesi hâline gelmeyi başarmıştı.

Uygun fiyatlı ürünler ve stratejik konumlarda açılan şubeleri sayesinde kısa sürede geniş bir müşteri kitlesi oluşturmuştu.

Sabancı’nın desteğiyle mağaza sayısını da artıran DiaSA, birçok ilde şubeler açarak büyük bir hızla Türkiye’ye yayılmıştı.

DiaSA, rakip market zincirlerini satın alarak bünyesine katmış ve toplam mağaza sayısını 1200’e çıkartmıştı.

Her şey çok iyi gidiyor gibi görünürken, 2013’te DiaSA’nın tüm hisseleri Dia tarafından gelen bir teklifle Yıldız Holding’e satıldı.

Bu satışın ardından DiaSA’nın yönetimi değişti ve bir dizi yenilik yapıldı.

Ancak, Yıldız Holding yetkililerinin DiaSA mağazalarında ciddi operasyonel eksiklikler olduğunu fark etmesi üzerine DiaSA markasının tamamen bitirilmesine karar verildi.

Sonuç olarak, 2013’ün eylül ayında DiaSA mağazaları tamamen ŞOK market zincirine dönüştü ve DiaSA ismi tarihe karıştı.

Kaynak: Kadir Kuru