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BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Options to Set Stage for GameStop-Like ‘Gamma Squeeze’ Rally, Bitwise Predicts

Last week, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approved the list of of physically settled options tied to BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).

One of the exciting developments from last week was the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) nod for approval and listing of physically settled options tied to BlackRock’s spot bitcoin (BTC) ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).

There is consensus that the IBIT options, which still needs to be greenlighted by the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), will further help draw institutions to the crypto market. The crypto community, however, seems split on how it would affect the bitcoin market volatility.

Per Bitwise Asset Management, gamma squeeze, a rapid price rally catalyzed by options market dynamics, could become a feature of the bitcoin market following the debut of IBIT options.

Gamma squeeze

To understand the gamma squeeze, readers must know how options work. Options are derivatives that allow the buyer the right to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. A call option gives the right to buy and represents a bullish bet on the market, while a put option represents a bearish bet.

Options gamma is a metric that gauges how an option’s delta, or the sensitivity of an option’s price to movements in the underlying asset, changes for every $1 move in the underlying asset’s price.

When investors buy a lot of call options, anticipating a price rally, market makers, who are mandated to maintain a net market-neutral exposure, end up on the other side of the trade, holding large amounts of short call positions, often called short gamma exposure. As such, they purchase the underlying asset as the market rallies because they are obligated to deliver the underlying asset to the call option buyer.

The hedging activity puts upward pressure on the spot price, causing a sharp rally, like the one in shares of American video game retailer GameStop (GME) in 2021.

Per Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies and portfolio manager at Bitwise Asset Management, IBIT options, offering regulated leverage on a supply-constrained BTC, will draw solid institutional demand for calls, setting the stage for a gamma squeeze.

“Bitcoin options have negative vanna: as spot goes up, so does volatility, meaning delta increases even faster. When dealers [market makers] who are short gamma hedge this (gamma squeeze), bitcoin’s case becomes explosively recursive. More upside leads to even more upside as dealers are forced to keep buying at higher prices. A negative vanna gamma squeeze acts like a refueling rocket,” Park said on X.

Park explained that IBIT options will eliminate the “jump-to-default (JTD) risk” that has kept institutions at bay, allowing bitcoin synthetic notional exposure to grow exponentially. JTD refers to the risk of an issue or counterpart defaulting suddenly before the market can adjust for the increased risk.

He expects a strong investor bias for longer-duration out-of-the-money (higher strike) calls once the options go live.

“With bitcoin options, investors can now make duration-based portfolio allocation bets, especially for long-term horizons. There’s a good chance that owning long-dated OTM calls as premium spend will give investors more bang for their buck than a fully-collateralized position that could drop by 80% over the same period,” Park said.

During an interview with CoinDesk, Bitwise Asset Management’s head of research Europe, André Dragosch, voiced a similar opinion, saying, “The consequence of this would be a price spike similar to what we have seen with GME, which is akin to a “short squeeze” in futures.”

Dragosch added that the upside volatility from the so-called gamma squeeze could be more pronounced due to the fact that bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million BTC.

The other side of the story

Per Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, the gamma squeeze could be seen if a perfect bullish storm, characterized by Republican candidate Donald Trump’s victory in the upcoming U.S. elections and Fed rate cuts, grips markets. However, over the long-run, increased institutional participation via the ETF and ETF options is likely to dampen volatility.

“Institutional flows, in particular, are counter-cyclical. Portfolio managers tend to trim exposure through quarterly rebalancing, selling appreciating assets when bitcoin rallies too much,” Magadini said in the weekly newsletter shared with CoinDesk.

Bitcoin’s realized or historical volatility has been trending lower since the Chicago Mercantile Exchange listed bitcoin futures in December 2017, opening doors for traditional institutions to take exposure to the cryptocurrency.

Besides, institutional flows via IBIT options could temper Bitcoin’s upside-implied or expected volatility, according to Magadini.

“Another well-known effect of these flows is their impact on implied volatility. Institutions buy protective puts and sell covered calls, which dampens upside implied volatility,” Magadini noted.

Implied volatility, or investors’ expectations for the degree of price turbulence over a specific period, is influenced by demand for options. Upside implied volatility picks up when investors buy calls and vice versa.

Sophisticated investors use the covered call strategy to generate additional income on top of their ETF holdings, as observed in the gold market. The strategy involves selling a higher strike ETF call option and pocketing the premium (option’s price) while holding a long position in the ETF. The short leg puts downward pressure on the implied volatility.

Crypto traders have been setting up covered calls through Deribit’s bitcoin options, leading to lower implied volatility over the past few years.

“As institutional ownership grows, their behavior has a greater impact. This means that, ultimately, institutional adoption leads to lower volatility in Bitcoin. This is merely a continuation of the clear structural decline in Bitcoin’s volatility,” Magadini summed up.

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Ether Leads Post-Fed Crypto Market Rally as Yen Weakness Sparks Risk-On Frenzy

From the U.S. dollar to cat-themed cryptos, global assets roar back following the FOMC’s bold move

On Sept. 18, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made a pivotal decision that significantly impacted risk-on assets. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, setting a new target range for the federal funds rate at 4.75% to 5.00%.

This move sparked debate, with some arguing that the Fed may have been late in the rate-cutting cycle, potentially signaling an impending recession. Historically, the last two times the Federal Reserve started with a 50 basis point rate cut were the 2001 and 2008 recessions, raising concerns that this current cut might signal similar economic challenges.

However, others suggest that the Federal Reserve may be navigating a “Goldilocks” period—where the economy grows sustainably. U.S. GDP growth for Q2 was a solid 3% on an annualized basis, and headline inflation has fallen to 2.5%, the lowest level since March 2021, reducing the need for real rates to remain this elevated (the real rate is the difference between the Fed’s target rate and the inflation rate). Furthermore, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model predicts a Q3 GDP growth estimate of 2.9%, further supporting a balanced economic environment.

Impact on key macro assets

The development has been the significant rebound in the crypto market. Ether (ETH) surged nearly 14%, highlighting a resurgence of investor risk appetite. Within the cryptocurrency space, cat-themed meme coins have led the charge, emerging as some of the top performers with gains of 40% in just a week. Bitcoin (BTC) also saw a gain of over 5%, although its dominance in the crypto market dipped below 58%, signaling a broad-based rally across other digital assets.

Following the FOMC decision, several key macro assets have reacted positively. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.36%, pushing the index back above 101, a level widely regarded as vital. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY exchange rate, which had dropped to around 141 just before the Fed’s announcement, has since climbed to approximately 143.5. The weakening yen has further bolstered risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Crude oil prices have climbed over 2%, potentially influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Gold, a traditional safe haven, also saw gains. Additionally, Nvidia (NVDA) shares increased by just under 2%, while the S&P 500 index (SPX) rose by over 1%, indicating that risk-on asset classes broadly welcomed the Fed’s decision.

Crypto ETFs see inflows

The buoyancy in the cryptocurrency market was further supported by inflows into both ether and bitcoin ETFs on Sept. 19 and 20. Ether-based ETFs recorded $8.1 million in inflows over these two days, while bitcoin ETFs saw much larger inflows of $250.3 million, according to Farside data.

Performance of market capitalization groups

When analyzing performance from a broader market perspective, it becomes clear that large, mid, and small-cap coins all faced underperformance in the lead-up to the FOMC decision.

However, coming out of the FOMC decision, small-cap cryptocurrencies have emerged as the biggest winners. Despite their early struggles, all three capitalization groups—large, mid, and small caps—have now made relative highs against bitcoin since the Fed’s announcement, reflecting a general increase in risk-on sentiment and liquidity across financial markets.

Market capitalization groups are typically defined as follows: large-cap stocks have a market capitalization greater than $1 billion, mid-caps fall between $100 million and $1 billion, and small caps range from $50 million to $100 million.

Looking ahead, the CME Fed Funds futures are evenly split, with a 50/50 probability of either a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Nov. 7 FOMC meeting, scheduled just two days after the U.S. presidential election.

Cat-Themed Memecoins Emerge as Preferred Risk On Bets With 40% Surge in a Week

Cat-themed tokens have emerged as a new cohort alongside dog-themed Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, among the biggest gainers in the 2020-2021 bull run.

Cat-themed memecoins aren’t just meowing but roaring back in an indication of risk-on sentiment starting to return to the broader crypto market.

Tokens such as Solana-based POPCAT, cat in a dog’s world (MEW), Ethereum-based MOG, and BNB Chain-based Simon’s Cat (CAT) have climbed up to 40% in a one-week period, with a bulk of gains coming since Wednesday when the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points for the first time in four years – fuelling prices of risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC).

Popcat, a token tied to a meme of a cat with its mouth popped open, is nearing $1 billion market cap. Culture coin mog has jumped 70% in the past two weeks amid its strong cult following on social platforms, where the community often replies to posts with “mogging” and “mogged” to improve its visibility.

The newly released CAT has quickly climbed to become one of the biggest cat memes, seeing over $145 million in exchange bets in the past 24 hours. The token is officially tied to the Simon’s Cat comic series.

Since early 2023, meme tokens have been increasingly seen as a leveraged way to bet on the growth of their underlying blockchains, and crypto traders refer to them as beta bets.

Cat-themed tokens have emerged as a new cohort alongside dog-themed Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB), among the biggest gainers in the 2020-2021 bull run.

Their relatively smaller total market capitalization makes cat memes a stronger attraction than their dog-themed counterparts: The dog memes sector tracked by CoinGecko shows a 4% average gain in the past 24 hours, compared to a 14% bump on cat tokens.

Some market makers expect memecoins, alongside alternative tokens, to continue surging in the coming months.

“Memecoins are experiencing a surge largely due to the anticipation of increased liquidity following the Federal Reserve’s recent 0.5% interest rate cut,” Alex Andryunin, founder of Gotbit Hedge Fund, known for backing memecoinds, said in a message to CoinDesk. “Market expectations for lower rates have converged, and with the prospect of more liquidity entering the financial system, investors are adopting a bullish sentiment.”

“We anticipate that the memecoin market could grow significantly over the next two months. The increased liquidity and a heightened appetite for risk may drive investors toward these high-risk, high-reward assets, potentially leading to a boom similar to previous cycles,” Andryunin added.

First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Tests $64K as BoJ Pauses Rate Hikes

The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Sept. 20, 2024.

This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.

Latest Prices

CoinDesk 20 Index: 2,000.30 +3.89%

Bitcoin (BTC): $63,503.69 +1.57%

Ether (ETH): $2,544.28 +4.77%

S&P 500: 5,713.64 +1.7%

Gold: $2,611.84 +0.95%

Nikkei 225: 37,723.91 +1.53%

Top Stories

Bitcoin rose above $64,000 during the Asian morning as the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged in a positive signal for risk assets. It subsequently pared some of its gains to settle around $63,500, 1.9% higher in the last 24 hours.The BoJ’s move avoided a repeat of its rate hike in July, which caused a slide in crypto markets. Traders observed that macroeconomic data is a source of optimism for riskier assets like BTC. “The US 2Y/10Y treasury spread, an indicator of recession, has been inverted since July 2022 but has recently steepened to +8bps,” QCP Capital traders said in a market broadcast Friday. “This reflects market optimism and a shift towards risk-on assets.”

Ether may be about to shine after underperforming against the wider crypto market this year, according to a new report by Steno Research. ETH has gained around 8% this year, compared with BTC’s 40%. However, ether’s performance during the last bull market could provide some clues as to what to expect now. ETH surged thanks to greater onchain activity from DeFi, stablecoin issuance and NFTs. The Federal Reserve interest-rate cut earlier this week will result in increased onchain activity, which will strongly benefit Ethereum, Steno said. “Ethereum’s active addresses remain strong, particularly when factoring in the growing adoption of rollups,” analyst Mads Eberhardt wrote, adding that the network’s transactional revenue looks to have bottomed in August.

More than 250 “Satoshi era” BTC moved on Friday, in a rare instance of bitcoin mined in the cryptocurrency’s early days becoming active. The Satoshi era refers to the period between 2009 and 2011, when bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto was active in the community before disappearing. The bitcoin were transferred in transactions of 50 BTC to new wallets during the European morning, on-chain tracker Whale Alerts flagged on X. Several “Satoshi era” bitcoin have been active in the past few years. In July 2023, a wallet dormant for 11 years transferred $30 million worth of the asset to other wallets, and in August, another wallet transferred 1,005 BTC to a new address.

Chart of the Day

– James Van Straten

Bitcoin Price and Hashrate Divergence May Set the Scene for a Potential Rally, Historical Data Shows

September’s counter-seasonal price trend has already started to show signs of this divergence trend helping BTC.

A divergence between bitcoin (BTC) price and its hashrate or network’s total computing power could potentially point towards a rally in the price of the largest digital asset.

Historically, these divergences have occurred only a few times in the past three years. In some cases, bitcoin prices have reached a local bottom during these events, followed by a rally as the market catches up with the rising hash rate. Bitcoin network’s hashrates rise and fall depending on how many miners have their mining computers online to validate transactions.

Consistent with this pattern, bitcoin has already shown signs of recovery, gaining about $9,000 since the local bottom on Sept. 6, representing a 15% increase in value. This divergence between bitcoin’s (BTC) price and its hash rate started to shape up in July and then persisted into early September, when the computing power of the network reached an all-time high of 693 exahashes per second (EH/s) on a seven-day moving average, while bitcoin’s price was near $54,000.

A significant factor contributing to the recent surge in hash rate is the activity of publicly traded mining companies. Before the halving – where bitcoin rewards get cut in half – the hash rate peaked at 650 EH/s and dropped to 550 EH/s in June, as less efficient miners exited the network due to higher competition. It has now returned to pre-halving levels as publicly traded miners that are well-capitalized, have increased their market share by raising their computing power.

In fact, data from the sixteen public companies show that they have almost reached a 23% market share in production, the highest since at least January 2023, according to the industry journal TheMinerMag. It is likely that publicly traded miners will continue to capture a larger share of the hash rate over time as they compete to stay profitable post-halving.

Counter-seasonal trend

September has historically been dubbed a bearish month for bitcoin, with historical data from Coinglass indicating an average price decline of 4%. However, this year has defied that trend, with bitcoin posting a 7% increase so far. This counter-seasonal trend could be indicating that due to the lower bitcoin price and rising hashrate, the price could be playing catch up with the hash rate, potentially setting up for another rally. Of course, there are other market factors such as interest rate decisions could also catalyze this price change.

Additionally, the next difficulty adjustment, scheduled for Sept. 25 and projected to decrease by 5%, could also indicate that prices may be catching up. Blocks are currently being mined at an average of 10.5 minutes, according to mempool.space. This indicates a potential slowdown in the hash rate as price plays catch up.

Miners accumulating

Another factor that could signal a potential rise in price is what miners are doing with their mined bitcoin.

Glassnode data indicates that from November 2023 to August 2024, miners consistently sold bitcoin to fund their operations due to the halving, marking one of the longest periods of sell pressure on record.

However, in the past 30 days, miners began accumulating bitcoin in their wallets, suggesting that the financial strain from the halving is largely over. If miners are distributing less bitcoin, this reduces the supply entering the market, increasing the chance of potentially helping the price.

Macro State of Crypto – Where It Has Been and What’s Next

Analytics can offer insight into how recent and past crypto and regulatory events have affected prices and movement. Plus: A quick Q&A on retirement funds.

Geçen hafta ABD’li bir Yargıç, XRP’nin menkul kıymet olmadığına karar verdi ve SEC, BlackRock bitcoin ETF başvurusunu kabul ederek onay sürecinin bir sonraki aşamasına geçti. Bu XRP haberinden birkaç dakika sonra, token 0,45 dolardan 0,61 dolara sıçradı ve fiyatı %25’in üzerine çıkardı. Bu kararlar ve daha pek çok karar, daha da fazla düzenleyici soruya yol açsa da, kural değişikliklerinin dijital varlık oynaklığında önemli bir faktör olduğu açıktır.

Dijital varlıklar konusunda bir danışman olarak, mevcut düzenleyici olayların ve son başarısızlıkların bitcoin, ether ve altcoinler için fiyatlandırmayı ve ticaret hacmini nasıl etkilediğini düşünmelisiniz.

Aşağıda, Amberdata’dan Greg Magadini, bizi kripto ve düzenleyici olaylara götürüyor ve bu olayların fiyatları ve hareketi nasıl etkilediğine dair bazı analizler sağlıyor.

Also, can we include crypto in retirement funds? Thanks to Bryan Courchese from Daim for answering this week’s questions on the topic.

– S.M.

You’re reading Crypto for Advisors, CoinDesk’s weekly newsletter that unpacks digital assets for financial advisors. Subscribe here to get it every Thursday.

Macro state of crypto – where it has been and what’s next

In 2022, Terra Luna’s collapse, the crypto hedge fund 3AC’s bankruptcy, FTX’s scandal and other meltdowns pushed the industry into a bear market. These headlines drove the entire sector lower, often led by altcoins.

However, the first half of 2023 flipped a lot of these crypto relationships on their head as macro economic events splashed news headlines.

Bitcoin led crypto higher in January as the Fed’s hawkish narrative began to soften. This move was accompanied by a positive “spot/vol” regime, with traders buying options as Bitcoin rallied – a relationship not witnessed in 2022 when only price crashes seemed to drive volatility higher.

The takeaway was that bitcoin was trading on fundamental macro news, as opposed to crypto specific events.

If Ethereum is a crypto “technology bet,” bitcoin is a monetary alternative “pure-play.”

YTD performance of BTC (orange) and ETH (blue)

This narrative juxtaposition became obvious in March as the SVB banking crisis took hold.

Comparing the YTD performance of BTC and ETH spot prices, we can clearly see that BTC began an outperformance of ETH in reaction to the banking crisis and the Fed’s emergency response.

BTC has been able to hold onto this outperformance ever since.

YTD Ratio of implied volatility (ETH DVol divided by BTC DVol)

To see further evidence of a shift in these trading dynamics (a move towards macro events and a shift away from crypto specific news) we can observe the forward-looking option market activity.

The ratio of Deribit’s DVOL indexes, a comprehensive 30-day to maturity measure of option implied volatility (think the VIX of BTC and the VIX of ETH), shows us that the typical implied volatility premium of ETH over BTC began to dissipate in reaction to macro news events.

In mid-January we saw a market adjustment from the Fed beginning to slow down its hawkishness. This sent BTC higher and BTC IV (implied volatility) relatively higher (chart goes down).

Then in early February we saw a major outperformance linked to the Labor Department’s monthly non-farm payrolls (NFP) number. This quickly killed the idea of a Fed hawkish slowdown; BTC dropped (along with gold and other interest-rate sensitive assets) and BTC IV went down, relative to ETH IV (chart goes up).

The SVB crisis again nudged BTC IV higher, only to be temporarily paused by the ETH Shanghai upgrade.

Today, ETH IV trades around parity to BTC IV, even briefly at a discount.

Where does this leave us for the second half of 2023?

The Fed remains in a “wait-and-see” mode, after recently doing a “rate skip” at their June FOMC meeting. Although other central banks continue to raise rates, the U.S. macro picture is moving into the background as crypto specific news events become “top-of-mind.”

The regulatory events surrounding Binance, Coinbase and XRP are becoming major drivers of activity.

Today, BTC is defined as a commodity, while ETH’s categorization is more ambiguous.

This means there’s increased sensitivity for ETH’s “technology bet” narrative around regulation. A lot of ETH’s value comes from its utilization and the various DeFi, NFT and ERC-20 protocols built on top of the Ethereum infrastructure.

Lately, volatility surrounding the consumer price index (CPI), NFP and other macro events seems to have settled down, while regulatory clarity around crypto, a potential spot ETF approval and the XRP resolution is becoming a key focus; this paradigm shift could lead the market towards higher beta “altcoins” in the crypto space.

Historically, altcoins have outperformed BTC in bull markets, and the second half of 2023 is off to a bullish start, so far accompanied by mostly favorable crypto-specific news headlines.

That the recent events have increased ETH IV relative to BTC IV offers a hint that option traders are also paying attention.

– Greg Magadini, CFA Amberdata

Ask an Advisor

I help clients include crypto in their retirement accounts.

– Bryan Courchesne, CEO Daim

Q: Can advisors invest in crypto in 401K (retirement) accounts for their clients?

A: The short answer is yes, you can invest crypto in a range of retirement accounts from 401K plans to individual retirement accounts. First, make sure that you are speaking to a licensed investment advisor. Investment management is highly regulated so your Bitcoin advisor should be properly licensed. Ask for the advisor and their firm’s CRD #. You can look it up on brokercheck.org to vet that they are legit.

Q: Can my clients hold crypto in these accounts, or just funds?

A: Short answer both. The accounts could hold pure crypto, a crypto futures fund, a trust product (Like GBTC), or equities like COIN stock (which the company holds pure Bitcoin on their balance sheet.) In any investment besides pure crypto the main things to consider are tracking differences from the underlying and different fee structures.

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Merhaba arkadaşlar, bugün sizlere Prizmabet adlı bir bahis kitabından bahsedeceğim. Prizmabet, Betconstruct donanımları ile üyelerine kaliteli hizmetler veren ve uygulamanın önde gelen bahis sitelerinden bir tanesidir. 2009 yılında kurulan Prizmabet, lisanslı, güvenilir ve güvenilir bir site olarak dikkat çekmektedir. Prizmabet’te spor bahisleri, canlı bahisler, casino, canlı casino, slot oyunları, sanal sporlar ve daha pek çok seçeneği bulabilirsiniz. Prizmabet’te oyun oynamak için aranan ortam fazlasıyla bulunur.

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Will 2023 Be the Year of the Bitcoin ETF?

The hype is back. Has the market changed enough?

Bir spot bitcoin borsa yatırım fonunun onaylanması umulan heyecan yeniden geri döndü. Bu kez, finans devi BlackRock’ın bir ETF yarışına girmesi, kripto endüstrisinin ilk kez bir bitcoin ETF’si başlatmaya çalışmasından on yıl sonra, Menkul Kıymetler ve Borsa Komisyonu’nun uzun zamandır beklenen ürünü onaylayacağı umudunu artırdı.

Kripto para birimi ve hükümetin kesişimine bakan bir CoinDesk haber bülteni olan State of Crypto’yu okuyorsunuz. Gelecek sürümlere kaydolmak için buraya tıklayın.

Spot ETF umutları

Hikaye

Temmuz 2013’te Cameron ve Tyler Winklevoss, ilk bitcoin borsa yatırım fonunu (ETF) başlatmak için başvurdu. On bir yıl sonra, endüstri hala bir spot bitcoin ürünü bekliyor.

neden önemli

Bir bitcoin ETF’si onaylanırsa, ABD’deki geniş bir bireysel yatırımcı yelpazesinin, bir cüzdan kurma veya bazen titiz kripto borsalarıyla uğraşma zahmetinden geçmek zorunda kalmadan bir varlık olarak bitcoin’e maruz kalmasına izin verir. Ayrıca, multimilyon dolarlık aile ofisleri gibi sofistike yatırımcılar, düzenlemeye tabi (ve dolayısıyla “güvenli”) bir bitcoin ürününe yatırım yapabilir. Savunucuların Menkul Kıymetler ve Borsa Komisyonu tarafından onaylanan bir ETF’yi görmek istemelerinin nedenlerinden bazıları bunlar.

yıkmak

İki yıldan uzun bir süre önce, Ontario Menkul Kıymetler Komisyonu, ilk Kuzey Amerika bitcoin borsa yatırım fonunu onayladı ve bu, bir Amerikan ürününün de yakında onaylanabileceği umudunu ateşledi. Daha sonra 2021’de ABD Menkul Kıymetler ve Borsa Komisyonu, ilk bitcoin vadeli işlemleri ETF’sini onaylayarak diğer birkaç benzer ürüne kapı açtı.

Şu an itibariyle, ABD’de hala spot bitcoin ETF ticareti yok, ancak BlackRock’un birkaç hafta önce dosyalanması, sektöre bunun değişebileceği zamanın gelebileceğinin sinyalini verdi. Geçtiğimiz haftalarda ABD’de spot bitcoin ETF için yarım düzine yeni başvuru gördük Piyasa bir ETF’yi destekleyecek kadar gelişti mi ve şirketler SEC’e bir ETF’nin güvenli olacağına dair yeterli güvenceyi sağlayabilir mi?

Şu anda gördüğümüz en büyük fark, bu başvuru sahiplerinin gözetim paylaşım anlaşmaları hakkında konuşmaya daha fazla zaman ayırmalarıdır (bazıları SEC’den yönlendirmelerle). Coinbase, şimdiye kadar bir ortak belirleyen tüm büyük olası ETF ihraççıları için pazar yeri olacak – BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck ve diğerleri adına Nasdaq ve Cboe BZX.

SEC, geçmişte gözetim paylaşım anlaşmalarını gündeme getirdi. 2019’da düzenleyici kurum, Bitwise’ın bir bitcoin ETF başvurusunu reddettiğini açıklayan 112 sayfalık bir emir yayınladı ve bitcoin piyasasının manipülasyon için çok fazla potansiyele sahip olduğunu ve “önemli büyüklükteki düzenlenmiş bir pazarla gözetim paylaşımı anlaşması” yapılması gerektiğini söyledi. herhangi bir potansiyel manipülasyonu caydırmak için dayanak varlıklarla ilgili ”.

Yıllardır bitcoin ETF uygulamalarını takip eden Bloomberg Intelligence analisti James Seyffart, sorunlardan birinin, önemli büyüklükte düzenlenmiş bir pazarın ne olduğu konusunda net bir tanımın olmaması olduğunu söyledi.

“Genellikle, her seferinde tamamen ertelerler ve sonra onları reddederler. Bu süreçte bazen yorum yapıyorlar” dedi Seyffart. “Bazıları kapalı kapılar ardında olacak… Bunların bir kısmı şüphesiz olacak.”

Coinbase şüphesiz ABD’nin en büyük kripto borsasıdır. CoinGecko’ya göre, en yakın rakibi Kraken ile karşılaştırıldığında genel olarak 24 saatlik işlem hacminin (normalize edildiğinde) iki katından fazlasına sahip. Bunun büyük bir kısmı bitcoin pazarından geliyor gibi görünüyor.

SEC, borsaya açtığı davada “dünyanın en büyük kripto varlık ticaret platformlarından biri ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin en büyüğü” olduğunu söyleyerek Coinbase’in ABD’deki rolünü bile kabul etti.

SEC’in Coinbase’e açtığı davanın bitcoin piyasasıyla hiçbir ilgisi yok, ki bu şirketlerin borsayı gözetim-paylaşım anlaşması ortağı olarak aramalarının nedenlerinden biri olduğunu tahmin ediyorum.

Açık soru, SEC’in Coinbase’in önemli büyüklükte düzenlenmiş bir bitcoin piyasasını işletmesini kabul edip etmeyeceği ve bunun bir onay için gerekli olup olmadığıdır.

Geçen yıl düzenleyici, bitcoin için düzenlenmiş herhangi bir pazar olduğunu düşünmüyordu. Spesifik olarak, Nisan 2022’de Teucrium’un bitcoin vadeli işlemleri ETF’sini onayladığında SEC, bitcoin vadeli işlemleri piyasası için gözetim paylaşım anlaşmalarının neden spot ETF’ler için işe yaramayacağını açıklayan bir dipnotta “spot bitcoin piyasalarının şu anda ‘düzenlenmemiş’ olduğunu” yazdı.

Bu arada, BlackRock/Nasdaq dosyalaması, geçmişteki ETF retlerine işaret ederek, ilk etapta önemli, düzenlenmiş bir piyasa olması gerekmediğini savunuyor.

“The regulated market of significant size test does not require that the spot bitcoin market be regulated in order for the Commission to approve this proposal, and precedent makes clear that an underlying market for a spot commodity or currency being a regulated market would actually be an exception to the norm,” the filing said. “These largely unregulated currency and commodity markets do not provide the same protections as the markets that are subject to the Commission’s oversight, but the Commission has consistently looked to surveillance sharing agreements with the underlying futures market in order to determine whether such products were consistent with the Act.”

The bitcoin futures market should be enough for the SEC’s “significant size” test, the filing said.

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Bitcoin Price Rally Puts Focus on Futures Spread That Underscores Need for Spot ETFs

Observers call for spot-based bitcoin ETF as the bull market raises cost of pre-expiry rollover of positions for futures-based ETFs.

Bitcoin’in (BTC) son rallisi, vadeli işlem ve vadeli işlem tabanlı borsa yatırım fonları (ETF’ler) tüccarlarını madeni para sahiplerine göre dezavantajlı duruma getiren bir piyasa özelliğiyle ilgili endişeleri yeniden canlandırdı.

Kripto para birimi geçen ayın sonlarında 31.000 doları aşarak bir yılın en yüksek seviyesine ulaştı. Yükselişle birlikte, Chicago-Mercantile Exchange (CME) listesinde yer alan Temmuz vadeli işlem sözleşmesi fiyatları ile artık süresi dolmuş (o zamanki ön ay) Haziran vadeli işlem sözleşmesi fiyatları arasındaki fark, boğa piyasasından bu yana en yüksek boşluk olan yaklaşık 500$’a patladı. TradingView grafik platformundan alınan verilere göre 2021’in son günleri.

The sharp widening of the spread, or the so-called steepening of the contango, has grabbed eyeballs in the crypto market. The spread raises the cost of pre-expiry futures rollover, or shifting of bullish long positions from front-month to next-month contracts, and affects the performance of the futures-based products offered by ProShares, VanEck and others. Observers, therefore, said the prevailing excitement about a potential launch of a spot-based ETF is justified.

Futures have an expiry date, which mandates the rollover of positions ahead of the settlement. When the spread between the front-month and the next-month contract widens, rollovers are characterized by traders selling the expiring contract at a low price and entering the new one at a high price (the exact opposite of buy low and sell high), inadvertently bleeding money.

“We were not surprised to see the level of contango in the bitcoin futures market expand over the past week. The CME Bitcoin Futures Market has historically traded in relatively sharp contango during bull market periods, particularly when people are excited about future events (like an eventual spot bitcoin ETF approval). This level of contango will certainly impact [futures-based ETF] investors,” Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at crypto index fund and ETF provider Bitwise Asset Management, said in an email.

“This generally points to why a spot bitcoin ETF would be superior for most investors vs. a futures-based ETF. People just want to own bitcoin, safely, with no ifs, ands, or buts. A spot-based ETF would achieve that goal,” Hougan added.

The U.S.-based futures ETFs invest in CME-listed bitcoin futures.

The spot-ETF rally

Last month, bigwigs from traditional finance like BlackRock (BLK), Invesco (IVZ), Fidelity, and others filed spot-based bitcoin ETF applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Bitcoin rallied nearly 12% in June.

A spot-based ETF, if approved, will be like SPDR Gold Trust ETF, which owns gold bars. The product will allow investors to hold their positions indefinitely while eliminating the rollover cost associated with futures ETFs and bypassing complexities involved with storing the cryptocurrency in a wallet. Besides, the spot-based ETF will track bitcoin’s spot price more closely than futures-based ETFs.

In other words, the spot-based ETF will be a better investment avenue than futures-based products like ProShares’ Bitcoin Strategy ETF, which have underperformed the cryptocurrency this year. ProShares’ futures-based ETF, which debuted in October 2021, is the world’s largest and most actively-traded futures-based ETF.

While BTC has gained 88% this year, shares in ProShares’ ETF, trading on NYSE under the ticker BITO, are up only 56%. That’s notable a loss of upside for BITO investors. BITO bled more than bitcoin during the 2022 bear market.

“We might expect underperformance vs. holding spot BTC. The cost of carry emphasizes that futures-based ETFs incorporate the effects of either contango, where holders experience lagging performance or backwardation, where holders experience outperformance. This emphasizes that there is a cost to investors to restricting them to just a derivatives-based ETF,” Ryan Kim, Head of Derivatives at institutional crypto derivatives platform FalconX, said.

“The dynamic does contribute to the excitement over spot-based ETFs,” Kim added.

The situation is unlikely to improve if bitcoin continues to rally, brining more buyers to the derivatives market and keeping futures premiums elevated across the different expiries.

As of Wednesday, the basis in bitcoin and ether CME futures or the difference between futures and spot prices was notably higher at the front end (30-day and 60-day) of the futures curve.

“For context, the 30-day annualized BTC basis just hit 19%, which is the highest value since October 2021, when BTC was trading at above $60,000,” Kim said. “The 30- and 60-day futures are the preferred vehicles for many investors, and more so for bitcoin than for ether.”

Ravi Doshi, co-head of trading at Genesis Global Trading, expressed a similar opinion, saying, “the bullish market sentiment has driven up the front-end CME futures basis.”

Doshi’ye göre, vadeli işlem ETF’lerinin uzun vadeli pozisyonlarını Haziran sözleşmesinden Temmuz’a çevirmesi gerektiğinden ve “spreaddeki likidite eksikliği, Temmuz sözleşmesinde vadeli işlem ETF sahiplerine mal olan geçici olarak %23’lük bir yıllık baza yol açtığından, durum geçen hafta daha da kötüleşti. canım.”

Bitcoin Could Rally to $125K by End-2024: Matrixport

The forecast is consistent with bitcoin’s tendency to chalk out sharp gains in the months after the mining reward halves. The fourth halving is due early next year.

Geçen yılın sonlarında bitcoin’de (BTC) yükselişe geçen birkaç firmadan biri olan kripto hizmetleri sağlayıcısı Matrixport, şimdi önde gelen kripto para biriminin 2024’ün sonuna kadar 125.000 dolara kadar yükselmesini bekliyor.

Tahmin, fiyatlar en az bir yıldır ilk kez 12 ayın en yüksek seviyesini belirleyerek ayı piyasasının sona erdiğini teyit ettiğinde, piyasa değerinde meteorik bir artış içeren çok aylık bir boğa piyasasının ortaya çıktığını gösteren verilere dayanmaktadır.

Bu sinyal, fiyatların Haziran 2022’den bu yana en yüksek seviye olan 31.000 $’ı aşmasının ardından geçen ayın sonlarında tetiklendi. Önceki sinyaller Ağustos 2012, Aralık 2015, Mayıs 2019 ve Ağustos 2020’de gerçekleşti ve sonraki yıllarda fiyatlar yükseldi.

“On June 22, 2023, bitcoin made a new one-year high, marking the first time in a year. This signal has historically indicated the end of bear markets and the start of new crypto bull markets,” Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at Matrixport, said in a report shared with CoinDesk.

“If history is any guide, bitcoin prices could climb by +123% over twelve months and by +310% over eighteen months – based on the average return of the signals triggered in 2015, 2019 and 2020. That would lift prices to $65,539 in twelve months and $125,731 over eighteen months,” Thielen added.

Thielen ignored the 2012 signal and the subsequent 5,285% price rise in 2013, calling it an “epic, out-of-proportion” bull market.

CoinDesk verilerine göre Bitcoin, basın zamanında 30.700 dolar civarında el değiştirdi.

Matrixport’un görüşü, bitcoin’in madencilik ödülü yarılandıktan sonraki 12-18 ay içinde keskin yükseliş trendleri belirleme eğilimiyle tutarlı. Blok başına ödenen yeni madeni paraları 6,5 BTC’den 3,25 BTC’ye düşürecek olan dördüncü halving, gelecek yıl Mart/Nisan aylarında gerçekleşecek.

Tarladan markete elmanın fiyatı yüzde 338 arttı

Türkiye Ziraat Odaları Birliği (TZOB) Genel Başkanı Şemsi Bayraktar, haziran ayı üretici ile market arasındaki fiyat farklılıklarını ve girdi fiyatlarında yaşanan değişimleri değerlendirdi.

Haziranda üreticiyle market arasındaki fiyat farkının en fazla yüzde 338,4 ile elmada görüldüğünü ifade eden Bayraktar, elmadaki fiyat artışını yüzde 257,8 ile kuru üzümün, yüzde 256,2 ile patlıcanın, yüzde 231,9 ile havucun, yüzde 222,3 ile kuru incirin ve yüzde 212,3 ile maydanozun takip ettiğini belirtti.

Üreticide 5 lira olan elmanın markette 21 lira 92 kuruşa, 25 lira olan kuru üzümün 89 lira 44 kuruşa, 6 lira 90 kuruş olan patlıcanın 24 lira 58 kuruşa, 11 lira olan havucun 36 lira 51 kuruşa, 55 lira olan kuru incirin 177 lira 24 kuruşa, 1 lira 99 kuruş olan maydanozun 6 lira 20 kuruşa tüketiciye satıldığını ifade eden Bayraktar, şunları kaydetti: “Haziranda markette 39 ürünün 23’ünde fiyat artışı, 16’sında fiyat düşüşü görüldü.

Markette fiyatı en fazla artan ürün, yüzde 47 ile patlıcan oldu. Patlıcandaki fiyat artışını yüzde 27,6 ile sivri biber, yüzde 26,3 ile kuru üzüm, yüzde 17,1 ile kabak, yüzde 16,7 ile kuru soğan, yüzde 16,4 ile zeytinyağı takip etti.

Markette fiyatı en çok azalan ürün ise yüzde 32,3 ile karpuz oldu. Karpuzdaki azalışı yüzde 22,2 ile maydanoz, yüzde 19,4 ile yeşil fasulye, yüzde 17,1 ile çilek, yüzde 16,2 ile havuç izledi.”