Prizmabet

Crypto Investors Mostly DCA Into Their Coins, Finds Kraken

Dollar-cost averaging can help remove emotion from decisions and focus on long-term outlook, a Kraken executive told CoinDesk.

For the vast majority of crypto investors, dollar-cost averaging (DCA) appears to be a must.

That’s according to a recent survey by US crypto exchange Kraken, which found that 83% of crypto investors have used dollar-cost averaging in the past to acquire their coins, with 59% of respondents stating it was their primary investment strategy.

“Dollar-cost averaging has survived as a strategy for the 75 years since the idea was first popularized, and I’d argue that’s for good reason,” Mark Greenberg, global head of asset growth and management at Kraken, told CoinDesk.

“As participants in the survey noted, dollar-cost averaging can help remove emotion from decisions and focus on long-term outlooks,” Greenberg said. “That’s especially critical in rapidly evolving technologies and markets like cryptocurrencies.”

Often called DCA for short, dollar-cost averaging is an investment strategy that entails acquiring exposure to an asset over a period of time across multiple purchases, instead of buying everything at once.

Hedging against volatility

The survey, conducted with 1,109 crypto investors and published on October 7, found that crypto investors privileged dollar-cost averaging for a variety of reasons.

Forty-six percent of respondents said the strategy helped them hedge against market volatility, while 24% of them said it encouraged consistent investment habits and 12% said it removed emotions from their decision-making process.

Perspective on the matter changes depending on one’s income: investors making less than $50,000 a year said the most significant benefit of dollar-cost averaging was the encouragement of consistent investment habits, but those making over $50,000 had more interest in reducing the impacts of market volatility.

“This difference might indicate that lower-income investors need more support with investment decisions, including maintaining regular contributions and sticking to a trading decision without emotional influence,” the report said.

“Lower-income investors most often choose riskier strategies like trying to time the market,” the report added, noting that respondents making less than $75,000 tend to prefer that strategy instead of dollar-cost averaging, whereas the vast majority of respondents making more than $150,000 privileged the more cautious route.

Higher income individuals also usually double-down on dollar-cost averaging when the market drops, whereas lower-income investors can just as likely stop trading for a while, or cut losses and sell.

Almost 74% of crypto investors keep a closer eye on markets than traditional investors usually do, the survey found. Surprisingly, that tends to be especially true of older investors — 66% of those between the ages of 45 and 60 reported checking crypto significantly more frequently than traditional markets, whereas only 33% of investors in their twenties said the same.

Crypto for Advisors: Crypto as a Growth Driver

For wealth managers, crypto presents a key opportunity for growth – especially with rising mainstream interest after the approval of spot bitcoin and ether ETFs earlier this year.

In today’s issue, Nathan McCauley, co-founder & CEO of Anchorage Digital, explores how crypto could be a growth driver for advisors.

In Ask an Expert, Marissa Kim from Abra Capital Management answers questions advisors may have about including crypto in their practice.

– Sarah Morton

You’re reading Crypto for Advisors, CoinDesk’s weekly newsletter that unpacks digital assets for financial advisors. Subscribe here to get it every Thursday.

Crypto is a Growth Driver for Wealth Managers

For wealth managers, crypto presents a key opportunity for growth – especially with rising mainstream interest after the approval of spot bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier this year.

As organic growth in wealth management declines and the marketplace becomes more crowded and competitive, crypto can help wealth managers drive client retention and reach new clients with a differentiated offering.

Between the new spot ETFs and separately managed accounts (SMAs), wealth managers have a wide menu of options to offer crypto to their end clients.

ETFs and streamlined adoption

Spot ETFs present a streamlined path for wealth managers to offer crypto, especially for those who use ETF-based model portfolios. In recent months, some of the largest players – from major wealth management firms to Wall Street banks – have allowed advisors to offer crypto ETFs to eligible clients.

The ETF wrapper has unlocked serious latent interest in integrating crypto into traditional portfolios, driving tens of billions of dollars into the digital asset class through a regulated and accessible investment vehicle. Competition amongst ETF issuers in the U.S., in particular, sparked fee compression for these products, benefiting crypto ETF shareholders.

While spot crypto ETFs continue to be a significant unlock across mainstream and institutional finance, there are a few things wealth managers need to keep in mind. First, only SEC-regulated spot ETFs for bitcoin and ether are available on the market today. Like all spot ETFs, these products give shareholders direct exposure to – but not direct ownership of – the underlying asset.

As a result, wealth managers should also consider other complementary avenues for crypto ownership, such as SMAs.

Crypto SMAs as the next evolution

With rising adoption of SMAs across the board and increasing interest in crypto as an asset class, crypto SMAs represent a perfect marriage. By combining direct ownership with professional management, crypto SMAs offer significant benefits for both wealth managers and clients alike.

A qualified custodian serves as the base layer of a compliant crypto SMA. Today, wealth managers can access qualified custodians for crypto through turnkey asset management platforms, third-party technology platforms, and direct integrations. Safekeeping crypto with a qualified custodian gives end clients the regulatory certainty they need to participate in the asset class.

For end clients, crypto SMAs unlock the ability to access a broader range of digital assets – beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum. The SMA structure also allows for greater flexibility in portfolio construction, which means end clients can deploy more personalized investment strategies. End clients may also benefit from improved tax efficiency.

For wealth managers, what does all of this mean? Greater client choice, which translates into enhanced client retention and differentiation from competitors in the market. By offering crypto SMAs, wealth managers can help future-proof their businesses – while providing the safety, security and regulatory certainty that clients have come to expect.

Embracing crypto through SMAs and complementary vehicles like spot ETFs can help position wealth managers to play a leading role in financial innovation, driving both long-term client satisfaction and business growth.

– Nathan McCauley, co-founder & CEO of Anchorage Digital

Ask an Expert

Q: How large of an opportunity does crypto represent? We want to understand how much firm resources we should devote toward gaining knowledge of crypto products.

It is estimated that about 50 million Americans (15%) already own crypto today, which means some of your clients likely already have exposure or are interested in getting exposure. Moreover, the adoption of cryptocurrencies is happening faster than the adoption of the internet, and we believe this participation rate may skyrocket over the next five years so that there will be significant demand from your clients.

As the wealth transfer from Boomers to Millennials occurs over the next five to 20 years, we believe millennials will have greater interest in owning cryptocurrencies and are likely to want to hold those assets directly, versus through ETFs or ETPs. There are still ways for advisors to be value-add to this type of client, but it does require investment of time to learn how clients will want to access these assets and the full breadth of product offerings beyond the ETFs.

Q: Where do digital assets fit into client portfolios from an allocation perspective?

Bitcoin is now being considered by some as a risk asset and as an asset that you would hold in a lower risk, defensive bucket, similar to precious metals or bonds. That being said, many advisors we speak to are only recommending to their clients exposure of 1-5% of total investable net worth to Bitcoin for now.

Assets like Ethereum and Solana are still being considered mostly in a high-risk bucket, more similar to owning single high-growth technology stocks, which can have significant upside as adoption continues but will also continue to be volatile, which may not be suitable for large position sizing or for some types of more conservative investors.

Q: What will happen with the regulatory environment in the U.S. – should we wait to make recommendations until the landscape is more settled?

In general, there is uncertainty in the U.S. around how digital assets should be treated under current law and whether the SEC and/or CFTC have jurisdiction over certain assets. There are many inconsistent approaches from various U.S. agencies and active cases going through the legal system now that are starting to show where the gaps are. There have also been several bipartisan crypto-related bills proposed over the last year.

While the industry certainly needs more regulatory clarity, BTC and ETH have some certainty following the approval of the spot ETFs, which confirmed that these assets are commodities – which is why these assets are likely to see increased institutional adoption.

– Marissa Kim, head of Asset Management, Abra Capital Management

Keep Reading

Merhaba arkadaşlar, bugün sizlere Prizmabet adlı bir bahis sitesinden bahsedeceğim. Prizmabet, Betconstruct altyapısı ile üyelerine kaliteli hizmetler veren ve ülkemizin önde gelen bahis sitelerinden bir tanesidir. 2009 yılında kurulan Prizmabet, lisanslı, güvenilir ve avantajlı bir site olarak dikkat çekmektedir. Prizmabet’te spor bahisleri, canlı bahisler, casino, canlı casino, slot oyunları, sanal sporlar ve daha pek çok seçenek bulabilirsiniz. Prizmabet’te oyun oynamak için aradığınız ortamı fazlası ile bulacaksınız.

Prizmabet’in en önemli özelliklerinden biri de Prizmabet TV kanalıdır. Bu kanal sayesinde bahis sitesinde bulunan müsabakaları üyeler bir ücrete katlanmadan istedikleri zaman takip edebiliyor. Böylece hem heyecanlı hem de kazançlı bir bahis deneyimi yaşayabiliyorsunuz. Prizmabet TV kanalında futbol, basketbol, tenis, voleybol gibi popüler spor dallarının yanı sıra daha az bilinen sporlara da yer verilmektedir. Prizmabet TV kanalını kullanmak için sadece siteye üye olmanız ve yatırım yapmanız yeterlidir.

Prizmabet ayrıca üyelerine bol miktarda bonus ve promosyon da sunmaktadır. Prizmabet’te ilk üyelik bonusu olarak 100 TL deneme bonusu alabilirsiniz. Bunun yanında yatırım bonusları, kayıp bonusları, arkadaş davet bonusu, doğum günü bonusu gibi farklı bonuslar da mevcuttur. Prizmabet bonusları sayesinde daha fazla oyun oynayabilir ve kazancınızı artırabilirsiniz. Prizmabet bonuslarının çevrim şartları da oldukça makul seviyededir.

Prizmabet para yatırma ve çekme işlemleri konusunda da üyelerine kolaylık sağlamaktadır. Prizmabet’te banka havalesi, kredi kartı, papara, cepbank, QR kod, bitcoin gibi farklı yöntemlerle para yatırabilir ve çekebilirsiniz. Para yatırma ve çekme işlemleri 7/24 yapılabilmekte ve kısa sürede hesaplara yansımaktadır. Prizmabet para yatırma ve çekme işlemlerinde herhangi bir komisyon veya kesinti de yapmamaktadır.

Prizmabet müşteri hizmetleri de üyelerine 7/24 canlı destek hizmeti sağlamaktadır. Prizmabet canlı destek ekibi sayesinde site ile ilgili her türlü soru, sorun veya önerinizi iletebilir ve anında çözüm bulabilirsiniz. Prizmabet canlı destek ekibi profesyonel, güler yüzlü ve yardımseverdir.

Sonuç olarak, Prizmabet ülkemizin en iyi bahis sitelerinden biri olarak gösterilebilir. Prizmabet’te hem eğlenceli hem de kazançlı bir bahis deneyimi yaşayabilirsiniz. Prizmabet’e üye olmak için güncel giriş adresini web sitemizden bulabilirsiniz. Prizmabet’e girmek için tıklayınız! Prizmabet’e katıldığınıza pişman olmayacaksınız!

U.S. Election Betting: Regulated Presidential Markets Are Live, and Tiny Compared to Polymarket’s

With a month to go before Election Day, Kalshi and Interactive Brokers have listed prediction markets on the race for the White House.

Two U.S.-regulated, dollar-denominated prediction markets began taking bets on the presidential race this week, with a month to go before Election Day.

Kalshi, which fought a long legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer election contracts in the U.S., launched its presidential markets on Friday, following Wall Street powerhouse Interactive Brokers’ (IAB’s) ForecastEx, which did so the day before.

So far volumes are modest at both CFTC-supervised exchanges, with $344,101 worth of contracts traded on Kalshi and $346,000 on ForecastEx. By comparison, more than $1.2 billion has been staked on the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump at Polymarket, the crypto-powered prediction market platform, which, despite prohibiting U.S. users under a CFTC settlement, has reaped record volumes this year while Kalshi and IAB sat on the sidelines awaiting legal clarity.

“It will be hard for the two sites to catch up, but that is not entirely impossible,” said Koleman Strumpf, an economics professor at Wake Forest University in North Carolina. For one thing, “some traders may switch from Polymarket to the other sites,” he told CoinDesk. (Despite geofencing, American traders have reportedly been using VPNs to access Polymarket.)

Moreover, “more than half of all trades will happen between now and election day if history is any guide (and there is more volume for close races which this looks to be),” said Strumpf, who has studied the history of election markets.

However, Aaron Brogan, a managing attorney at Brogan Law, said that Polymarket has two advantages beyond being the first mover.

“Polymarket is theoretically accessible to people all over the world. In contrast, Kalshi’s products aren’t available to ‘foreign nationals’ and certain other excluded groups,” he said. “Second, Polymarket doesn’t have explicit position limits, but Kalshi’s rules do. In this case, the limit is quite high, but it’s conceivable that this could be a limiting factor on total market size.”

Price differences

Early afternoon Friday in New York, prices of “yes” shares for Harris were trading at 51 cents, signaling traders give her a 51% chance of winning. Trump’s odds on Kalshi were at 50%.

Harris was also leading Trump on ForecastEx, but by a wider margin, 53-47. Meanwhile, on Polymarket, the two candidates were neck and neck, at 49% each.

Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University in New Jersey, said these differences were not very meaningful. “We’re used to using polls in election forecasting, and with polls, there’s a well-understood margin of error, three percentage points usually, depending on sample size,” he said.

Similarly, in markets there is sometimes a “margin of inefficiency” where any profits to be made from arbitraging price differences are not worth the effort. “There’s no sufficient incentive for anyone to scoop up the penny that the difference might present.”

But prediction markets “don’t need to be identical to be useful for forecasting,” Crane said. Over time, observers can collect data on these markets, determine which ones had stronger predictive track records, and come up with a consensus forecast that might put more weight on one market than another, he said.

Unfinished business

Kalshi sued the CFTC last year after the agency denied its application to list contracts on which party would control each house of Congress. The company won the case (which the CFTC is appealing) and listed the congressional contracts on Sept. 13.

They traded for only a few hours before the appeals court granted the CFTC an administrative stay freezing the contracts, which it lifted Wednesday. Emboldened, the company not only revived the congressional contracts but self-certified the presidential one. Self-certification is the process whereby CFTC-regulated entities list products without the agency’s prior approval. IAB, which started ForecastEx over the summer, quickly followed suit.

The CFTC, which is also considering a proposal to ban political event contracts at the exchanges on its watch, has asked the appeals court to expedite the case. Among other reasons, the agency said its proposed regulation “may be substantially impacted by this Court’s decision on the merits.”

But it’s apparently given up on stopping these contracts from trading before the election. Its proposed timetable would have briefs filed by Nov. 22 (more than two weeks after Americans cast their votes) and oral arguments heard on Dec. 2.

U.S. Crypto Industry Will Follow a Different Path From Rest of World: BitMEX Group CEO

BitMex does not operate in the U.S. and is positioned more in Asia than any other part of the world.

SINGAPORE —The U.S. crypto market will take a different path from the rest of the world, consolidating more with traditional finance (TradFi), because of differences in the regulatory environment and customer needs, Stephan Lutz, CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, said in an interview at Token2049 in Singapore.

“I think that the U.S. crypto businesses will pivot in one direction that is consolidating TradFi with crypto,” Lutz said. “If you look at Coinbase, if you look at Circle, you look at Kraken, they are basically going more and more into becoming a digital twin of the TradFi system.”

The split, Lutz called it a bifurcation, means U.S. crypto businesses will focus on domestic customers, and companies from the rest of the world will stay out of the country. BitMEX itself does not operate there, having pleaded guilty in July to violating the Bank Secrecy Act and failing to set up an adequate know-your-customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) program between 2015 and 2020. In 2022, co-founders Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo and Samuel Reed were fined a total of $30 million for violating money-laundering rules.

Instead, BitMEX is more prominently placed in Asia, said Lutz, who was previously a partner at PwC after spending time at Deutsche Boerse, the operator of Germany’s largest stock exchange.

The industry has been “begging for issue-specific legislation in the U.S. for years,” he said, though he’s not optimistic of the chances for crypto legislation moving through the Senate before November’s presidential election.

“Market institutions in Asia will take advantage of America’s confusion.”

Asia and India

Unlike the U.S. and European Union where almost everyone has access to the conventional banking system, Asia has the banked – family offices, accredited investors and wealthy corporates – alongside the so-called unbanked, who comprise more than half of the continent.

It’s that group that needs alternative services such as international remittances from family members working abroad to support relatives at home, a real use case.

“This is why you have a bifurcation of the markets. You serve completely different needs,” Lutz said.

According to Lutz, outside of the U.S., India will power the crypto industry in the next 10 years provided the companies are reasonably open and if policymakers understand that crypto “actually adds to their capability of maintaining” monetary policy independence.

The Fed Pivot is Finally Here

Last week, the Fed cut its federal funds target rate by 50 bps to 5.00% p.a. (upper limit) which could have strong implications for the crypto community, says Andre Dragosh, head of research Europe, CoinShares.

“The time has come,” stated Fed chairman Jerome Powell back in August at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. Last week, the Fed cut its federal funds target rate by 50 bps to 5.00% p.a. (upper limit) which was slightly more than markets had priced in before the FOMC meeting. In other words, the Fed positively surprised markets with this rate cut.

It is quite likely that the Fed is just getting started with rate cuts. At the time of writing, the market already expects 3 additional cuts (75 bps) by year-end and another 5 cuts (125 bps) next year through December 2025. The Fed has also telegraphed additional cuts via its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) (aka “dot plot”).

Nonetheless, despite this more-than-expected interest rate reduction of 50 bps, it is quite likely that the Fed still remains “behind the curve.”

You’re reading Crypto Long & Short, our weekly newsletter featuring insights, news and analysis for the professional investor. Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Wednesday.

For instance, a standard Taylor rule based on the unemployment rate and core PCE inflation implies that a fed funds target rate of around 3.6% p.a. is already warranted based on the underlying economic and inflationary momentum.

In addition, the latest fund manager survey by Bank of America indicates that monetary policy was still “too restrictive” in September 2024 – in fact, the most restrictive since October 2008 according to this survey.

There still remains an increased risk of a recession as several reliable indicators such as the prominent “Sahm rule” remain triggered.

That being said, our quantitative analyses imply that global growth has become less relevant for the performance of bitcoin while other factors like monetary policy or the US dollar have become more important.

In other words, a US recession might not be as negative as widely anticipated for bitcoin and other cryptoassets. To the contrary, it may lead to even more Fed rate cut expectations and US Dollar weakness which could provide even more tailwind.

With the latest move by the Fed and other major central banks, the global liquidity tide is clearly turning; global money supply has already reached new all-time highs and is accelerating. Expansionary money supply growth periods are usually associated with bitcoin bull runs.

The re-steepening of the US yield curve which tends to be a recessionary indicator is also an indicator for increasing liquidity and therefore bullish for scarce assets like bitcoin.

What is more is that the increase in global liquidity is coinciding with the increasing supply scarcity of bitcoin which has been intensifying since the latest halving in April 2024.

Our analyses have shown that there tends to be a significant lag between the halving event itself and the moment the supply shock starts to become significant, as the supply deficit only tends to accumulate gradually over time.

So, it appears as if there is a perfect confluence between an increase in potential demand via global money supply and a simultaneous reduction in available supply via the halving.

The market has been mired in “chopsolidation” – a choppy consolidating range-bound market – since the latest all-time high in March 2024. This was due to several factors such as government sales of bitcoin, Mt. Gox trustee’s distribution of bitcoins, or the macro capitulation in early August 2024.

In this context, the summer months have generally been one of the worst performing months for bitcoin historically with September being the worst month of the year.

However, Q4 tends to be the best month for bitcoin from a pure performance seasonality perspective and we also expect bitcoin to break out of this chopsolidation in Q4.

It seems as if the wait for a new break-out to the upside is finally over. The Fed pivot may have just delivered the perfect catalyst for that.

Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.