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Shayne Coplan: He Took Prediction Markets Mainstream

In so doing, Polymarket’s founder demonstrated a real-world consumer use case for crypto, earning him a spot on CoinDesk’s Most Influential 2024 list.

For decades, prediction markets were a backwater, a science experiment.

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In 2024, Shayne Coplan, founder of Polymarket, turned them into a multibillion-dollar business and a popular barometer of the political winds, cited by everyone from Donald Trump to CNN.

In so doing, he demonstrated a real-world consumer use case for cryptocurrency – and, some argue, a new model for news media at a time when the public has lost trust in traditional sources of information.

“Most people I know were checking Polymarket for odds during the election,” said Meltem Demirors, a crypto O.G. and early investor in the company. “You’re creating so much signal that you’re getting people who don’t care about crypto, and would never care about crypto” to look at the site.

Like many crypto founders – and even some successful tech founders – the 26-year-old Coplan also took what looks like a calculated risk in pushing the regulatory envelope. In mid-November, the FBI raided his New York home and confiscated his devices, reportedly as part of a Department of Justice investigation into whether Polymarket was operating illegally in the U.S. Coplan has laid low since then, and would not comment for this article.

However that investigation shakes out, Coplan has brought unprecedented attention to an idea long advanced by academics: That the wisdom of the crowd, backed by skin in the game, can produce more accurate forecasts – or at least, more accurate gauges of sentiment – than traditional experts or polls.

“This man made prediction markets mainstream. Simple as that,” said Hart Lambur, co-founder of UMA, the decentralized oracle service that Polymarket uses to resolve contracts. “He’s just been the guy that’s grinded through the pain and been dedicated to the Polymarket concept for years.”

A stubborn wunderkind

Demirors recalls meeting Coplan in 2018, when the college dropout was about 18 years old, on the recommendation of a crypto colleague.

“Shayne came to my office, and we basically just argued with each other for two hours,” Demirors said. “I was like, ‘wow, this kid is sharp.'”

Pratik Chougule, executive director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, got a similar impression interviewing Coplan for the Star Spangled Gamblers podcast early in Polymarket’s history.

“He’s a very unique figure in the sense that he’s this creative artist type, but he’s also delved deeply into academic literature, and he really understands technicalities of building something on the blockchain,” said Chougule.

Demirors said that in addition to investing in an early Polymarket round during the pandemic, she has been “a little bit of a big sis” to Coplan, acting as a sounding board as he built the business.

“He’s just an opinionated, stubborn little f*ck, and I love him,” she said, adding that Coplan’s headstrong personality served him well as a founder.

Early on, “people tried to pressure him to launch a token, and he was like, ‘we’re not doing that.’ People tried to pressure him to open up markets before the infrastructure was ready. He was like, ‘we’re not doing that.'”

Volume and vindication

Flip Pidot, a veteran prediction market trader and analyst, estimated that Polymarket racked up $3.6 billion in trading volume just from this year’s U.S. presidential election, giving it a dominant, 74% market share. In previous election cycles, the entire prediction market industry never cracked $1 billion, he said.

Many saw the election as a moment of vindication for Polymarket. In the weeks leading up to the event, Polymarket odds signaled a sizable lead for Trump while the polls showed a toss-up between the former president and his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump won handily.

Yet a clearer validation of Polymarket’s informational value arguably came in July, when President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris.

For months, cable news’ talking heads dismissed any talk of replacing Biden on the Democratic ticket, despite the 82-year-old’s frequent public stumbles.

https://twitter.com/0rf/status/1807620571934478683

Polymarket told a different story: Even after Biden won enough votes to clinch the Democratic nomination in mid-March, traders gave him only an 80% chance of being the nominee. A separate contract asking point blank if he would drop out gave low but nontrivial odds in the teens and 20s throughout the first half of the year.

“People were like, ‘Oh, these [traders] are right-wing crypto bros, they’re just conspiracy theorists. They don’t know what’s going on,'” said a Polymarket user who goes by the handle CSPTrading. “And they were completely vindicated.”

Following Biden’s disastrous, doddering performance in the June 27 debate with Trump, the narrative quickly changed, with Democratic leaders and donors calling for the incumbent to step aside, as he did a month later.

More so than with the election, the pundits (who had nothing to lose from being wrong) got it wrong by claiming epistemic certainty. Polymarket’s traders (who had money on the line) got it right by telegraphing a modicum of doubt.

Spectrum of decentralization

In prediction markets, traders bet on verifiable outcomes of events in specified timeframes. (Which movie will gross the biggest box office of 2024? Will this be the hottest year on record?) Questions are usually framed as yes-or-no propositions, for which traders can purchase “yes” or “no” shares. Each share pays $1 (or, in Polymarket’s case, the equivalent in crypto) if the prediction comes true, bupkis if not.

Bettors can buy and sell shares any time, and prices fluctuate like on stock markets. Expressed as cents on the dollar, these prices signal the market’s assessment of an outcome’s probability. On Dec. 4, for example, “yes” shares for the Detroit Lions winning the next Super Bowl traded at 18 cents on Polymarket, meaning bettors gave the team an 18% chance of victory. The corresponding “no” shares were priced at 82 cents.

Prediction markets date back to the late 19th Century, when Wall Street traders would bet millions (tens of millions in today’s dollars) on city, state and national elections. “There was more money bet in presidential betting markets than in the stock markets at the time,” said Robin Hanson, an economist at George Mason University.

Since the late-1980s, Hanson has championed prediction markets as a way to aggregate information and thereby improve decision making by corporations and even governments.

“One of the obstacles, of course, was that betting markets had many legal barriers, and cultural barriers [because] many people disapproved of them and thought they had little social value,” Hanson told CoinDesk.

This is one reason why blockchains, decentralized financial systems with no central authority that a government can shut down, have long been seen as a natural home for prediction markets. They are one of the use cases Ethereum architect Vitalik Buterin described in his 2014 white paper for what would become the second-largest blockchain. (As a teenager, Coplan bought into the Ethereum crowdsale; a decade later, Buterin invested in Polymarket.)

The modern-day prediction markets Hanson inspired can be viewed on a spectrum. On one end there’s the model used by Augur, one of the first projects built on Ethereum.

“One of the advantages is that it’s 100% decentralized,” said Joey Krug, who co-founded Augur in 2015. “If you’re building it, you’re effectively writing code. It’s effectively free speech, assuming you’re not taking a fee for yourself, and it’s also pretty flexible in the sense that anyone can kind of create a market on anything.”

But as crypto veterans know all too well, decentralization requires trade-offs.

Best of both worlds?

“It’s really hard to market if you’re building something decentralized,” said Krug, who is now a partner at Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and led its investment in Polymarket’s $45 million Series B round.

(For whatever it’s worth: Thiel was an early investor in Bullish, two years before that company acquired CoinDesk. Bullish has not disclosed a cap table since 2021, and CoinDesk journalists do not know the current roster of investors in its parent.)

“The whole point is that you don’t want to take on the regulatory version of being this central operator that does everything,” Krug said. “And so you don’t really market it. … You don’t do all this stuff that you need to do to actually get usage.”

Consequently, Augur had very little. (In fairness, Polymarket benefits from Ethereum infrastructure that wasn’t around when Augur debuted).

On the “very centralized” end of the continuum, there’s Kalshi. Founded in 2018, the startup boasts about its status as the first (and, until recently, only) regulated prediction market platform in the U.S.

This route has its own disadvantages. In 2023, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission denied Kalshi’s application to list election-related contracts, and the company spent most of this year fighting the regulator in court for the right to do so – while watching Polymarket enjoy the volume and publicity from political betting fever. Only after an appeals court upheld a ruling in its favor in early October, a month before the election, was Kalshi cleared to list political contracts.

Polymarket is in the middle of the spectrum. In some ways, it’s decentralized. It uses smart contracts on a blockchain (Polygon, a layer-two, or auxiliary network, to Ethereum) and doesn’t custody users’ funds. Bets are denominated in USDC, a stablecoin that trades 1:1 for dollars. Early on, an internal market integrity committee resolved Polymarket’s contracts, before Coplan’s team delegated this job to the decentralized UMA protocol.

“If you are sufficiently sophisticated, you can interact entirely with Polymarket without ever touching the website,” said Haseeb Qureshi, a managing partner at Dragonfly, another VC investor in Polymarket. “The trades settle all on-chain. You can interact with everything through APIs.”

But you don’t have to. Unlike Augur (which co-founder Krug admitted “kind of sucks to use”) or for that matter many crypto exchanges (decentralized or otherwise), traders have found Polymarket easy to use and reliable.

“The platform’s really smooth, it runs really well,” said CSPTrading. “On election night, it was basically up the entire time, which is crazy because… all the other sites were crashing.”

‘Decentralized enough’

One way Polymarket is centralized is that it curates markets. Community members can suggest ideas in the Discord server, but the team decides which ones get posted. With little fanfare, the platform recently debuted a “creators” page where big names like polling analyst Nate Silver (a Polymarket advisor) and the financial blogger Zerohedge have their own branded markets.

“I think Polymarket is moving its way towards more decentralization,” said Qureshi. “They’re also right to be doing this in a gradual, thoughtful way, rather than just turning everything on and saying, ‘let the dogs of hell run loose.'”

In Demirors’ view, Polymarket is “decentralized enough.” The key to winning this game, she said, is amassing “a large enough global pool of market participants,” because traders want to be where the liquidity is. By building on crypto rails at the right time, that’s what Polymarket has become.

“That’s the beauty of crypto. It’s global. Anyone with a wallet address can join,” Demirors said.

However, Polymarket wasn’t decentralized enough for U.S. regulators to consider it untouchable. In January 2022, the company paid a $1.4 million civil penalty and entered into a settlement with the CFTC, which said the company had been operating an unlicensed derivatives exchange because its services were available to U.S. citizens and residents.

Since then, the company has blocked U.S. IP addresses, but wily Americans have been using virtual private networks, or VPNs, to get around the geofencing. Apparently, the government thinks the company should have done more to keep Americans out, perhaps by requiring customer identification. (which Polymarket has requested only from a subset of users).

“Polymarket is required to adhere to the terms of the settlement they reached with the CFTC. Full stop,” a CFTC spokesperson told CoinDesk in late October, two weeks before law enforcement officials raided Coplan’s home. “That means they cannot accept any business from people living in the United States.”

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Coplan called the raid a “last-ditch effort” by the lame-duck Biden administration “to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents,” though he reiterated that Polymarket is nonpartisan.

Challenges ahead

Polymarket’s investors and supporters are hopeful the incoming Trump administration will end the probe as part of a broad pro-crypto agenda.

Even if Polymarket receives clemency, Coplan faces other challenges, not least of all maintaining volumes without a galvanizing tent-pole event like a presidential election.

The company, which currently doesn’t charge trading fees, also must figure out a long-term revenue model. And a handful of outcome disputes, including for a market on whether Trump’s son Barron was “involved” in a memecoin, suggest Polymarket needs to improve its resolution criteria.

Yet, by at least one measure, Coplan has already succeeded.

“Shayne’s vision has always been that this is a product that can disrupt traditional media and political discourse … and he achieved that” said Chougule, at the Coalition for Political Forecasting. “This was always the dream, that you would have major talk shows, cable news, places like Politico and Bloomberg citing prediction markets as a source of information, as something that can enlighten even people who know nothing or don’t care about prediction markets.”

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Trump Family Members and Biden Aides Among China Hack Targets

Phones used by Jared Kushner and Eric Trump were among those that hackers sought access to as part of a counterintelligence effort carried out by a hacking group associated with China.

Members of former President Donald J. Trump’s family, as well as Biden administration and State Department officials, were among those targeted by the China-linked hackers who were able to break into telecommunications company systems, according to people familiar with the matter.

The sophisticated hacking operation has alarmed national security officials and appears to have targeted a substantial but focused list of people whose communications would be of interest to the Chinese government. The list of known targets is currently fewer than 100 individuals, these people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe a sensitive ongoing investigation.

So far, the list of targeted phones includes devices used by high-profile people, including Mr. Trump, his son Eric Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner. The list also includes members of Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign staff, as well as diplomatic, government and policy experts who are largely unknown to the general public but would hold significant interest to Chinese officials eager to learn more about internal U.S. policy-making, these people said. It is unclear what, if any, data was taken from those individuals.

In a statement, Eric Trump sought to blame the Biden administration for the hacking of the telecommunications networks, saying, “Does this surprise anyone? Under Kamala and Biden, China has walked all over our country.”

An aide to Mr. Kushner did not respond to an email seeking comment.

The Trump campaign team was notified last week that phones used by Mr. Trump and his running mate, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, were among those targeted through the infiltration of Verizon phone systems. Others targeted by the hackers have been receiving similar notifications from U.S. authorities.

Democrats, including an aide to Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, were also targeted, the people said.

Social Security: Why It Matters for Young People, Not Just Retirees

Despite fears about long-term solvency, millennials and Gen Z workers have a major stake in the program.

Paul Unnasch notices the $335 in payroll taxes coming out of his paycheck every month for Social Security, and wishes he could get those dollars back.

“If there was a way to opt out of Social Security, I would,” said Mr. Unnasch, a 27-year-old technical writer who lives in Milwaukee. “I don’t have much trust in it — I know I’ll probably get something out of it, but people are living longer and there’s a huge generation of boomers retiring now.”

An aggressive saver who socks away 20 percent of his pay in retirement accounts, he would prefer to put those Social Security payroll taxes into the stock market or use them to pay down his student loans.

Mr. Unnasch’s take on Social Security isn’t unusual among younger Americans. Research shows that a majority of young people are more pessimistic about the program than their older counterparts are. Gallup polling,for example, shows that just 37 percent of Americans aged 30 to 49 expect to receive Social Security benefits when they retire — compared with 66 percent of people aged 50 or older.

Social Security is not on a course to vanish — but the concerns voiced by young people are understandable.

Last year, the program’s retirement and disability trust funds had reserves of $2.79 trillion, but expenses have been outpacing noninterest revenue since 2010, mainly because of low birthrates that translate into a declining ratio of workers paying into the program and more people drawing benefits. As a result, the trust fund reserves are forecast to be depleted in 2035. At that point, the program would be bringing in enough cash to pay only 83 percent of the benefits promised to current and future beneficiaries, according to the most recent projection of the Social Security trustees. That would be the equivalent of a 17 percent across-the-board cut in benefits.

How North Korea Infiltrated the Crypto Industry

More than a dozen blockchain firms inadvertently hired undercover IT workers from the rogue state, incurring cybersecurity and legal risks, a CoinDesk investigation found.

The crypto company Truflation was still in its early stages in 2023 when founder Stefan Rust unknowingly hired his first North Korean employee.

“We were always looking for good developers,” Rust said from his home in Switzerland. Out of the blue, “this one developer came across the line.”

“Ryuhei” sent his resume over Telegram and claimed he was based in Japan. Soon after he was hired, odd inconsistencies began to surface.

At one point, “I’m talking to the guy, and he said he was in an earthquake,” Rust recalled. Except there was no recent earthquake in Japan. Then the employee started missing calls, and when he did show up, “it wasn’t him,” Rust said. “It was somebody else.” Whoever it was had dropped the Japanese accent.

Rust would soon learn that “Ryuhei” and four other employees – more than a third of his entire team – were North Korean. Unwittingly, Rust had fallen prey to a coordinated scheme by North Korea to secure remote overseas jobs for its people and funnel the earnings back to Pyongyang.

U.S. authorities have intensified their warnings recently that North Korean information technology (IT) workers are infiltrating tech companies, including crypto employers, and using the proceeds to fund the pariah state’s nuclear weapons program. According to a 2024 United Nations report, these IT workers rake in as much as $600 million annually for Kim Jon Un’s regime.

Hiring and paying the workers – even inadvertently – violates U.N. sanctions and is illegal in the U.S. and numerous other countries. It also presents a grave security risk, because North Korean hackers have been known to target companies through covert workers.

A CoinDesk investigation now reveals just how aggressively and frequently North Korean job applicants have targeted crypto companies in particular – successfully navigating interviews, passing reference checks, even presenting impressive histories of code contributions on the open-source software repository GitHub.

CoinDesk spoke to more than a dozen crypto companies that said they inadvertently hired IT workers from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), as the nation is officially called.

These interviews with founders, blockchain researchers and industry experts reveal that North Korean IT workers are far more prevalent in the crypto industry than previously thought. Virtually every hiring manager approached by CoinDesk for this story acknowledged that they had interviewed suspected North Korean developers, hired them unwittingly, or knew someone who had.

“The percentage of your incoming resumes, or people asking for jobs, or wanting to contribute – any of that stuff – that are probably from North Korea is greater than 50% across the entire crypto industry,” said Zaki Manian, a prominent blockchain developer who says he inadvertently hired two DPRK IT workers to help develop the Cosmos Hub blockchain in 2021. “Everyone is struggling to filter out these people.”

Among the unwitting DPRK employers identified by CoinDesk were several well-established blockchain projects, such as Cosmos Hub, Injective, ZeroLend, Fantom, Sushi and Yearn Finance. “This has all been happening behind the scenes,” said Manian.

This investigation marks the first time any of these companies have publicly acknowledged that they inadvertently hired DPRK IT workers.

In many cases, North Korean workers conducted their work just like typical employees; so the employers mostly got what they paid for, in a sense. But CoinDesk found evidence of workers subsequently funneling their wages to blockchain addresses linked to the North Korean government.

CoinDesk’s investigation also revealed several instances where crypto projects that employed DPRK IT workers later fell victim to hacks. In some of those cases, CoinDesk was able to link the heists directly to suspected DPRK IT workers on a firm’s payroll. Such was the case with Sushi, a prominent decentralized finance protocol that lost $3 million in a 2021 hacking incident.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and the Department of Justice began publicizing North Korean attempts to infiltrate the U.S. crypto industry in 2022. CoinDesk uncovered evidence that DPRK IT workers started working at crypto companies under fake identities well before then, at least as early as 2018.

“A lot of people, I think, are under the mistaken impression that this is something new that suddenly happened,” said Manian. “There are GitHub accounts and other things with these people that, like, go back to 2016, 2017, 2018.” (GitHub, owned by Microsoft, is the online platform that many software organizations use to host code and allow developers to collaborate.)

CoinDesk linked DPRK IT workers to companies using various methods, including blockchain payment records, public GitHub code contributions, emails from U.S. government officials and interviews directly with target companies. One of the largest North Korean payment networks examined by CoinDesk was uncovered by ZachXBT, a blockchain investigator who published a list of suspected DPRK developers in August.

Previously, employers remained silent due to concerns about unwanted publicity or legal repercussions. Now, confronted with extensive payment records and other evidence unearthed by CoinDesk, many of them have decided to come forward and share their stories for the first time, exposing the overwhelming success and scale of North Korea’s efforts to penetrate the crypto industry.

Fake documents

After hiring Ryuhei, the ostensibly Japanese employee, Rust’s Truflation received a flood of new applicants. Over just a few months, Rust unwittingly hired four more DPRK developers who said they were based in Montreal, Vancouver, Houston and Singapore.

The crypto sector is especially ripe for sabotage by North Korean IT workers. The workforce is particularly global, and crypto companies tend to be more comfortable than others hiring fully remote – even anonymous – developers.

CoinDesk reviewed DPRK job applications that crypto companies received from a variety of sources, including messaging platforms like Telegram and Discord, crypto-specific job boards like Crypto Jobs List, and hiring sites like Indeed.

“Where they’re having the most luck getting hired is these really fresh, new upstart teams who are willing to hire off a Discord,” said Taylor Monahan, a product manager at the crypto wallet app MetaMask who frequently publishes security research related to North Korean crypto activity. “They don’t have processes in place to hire people with background checks. They’re willing to pay in crypto a lot of times.”

Rust said he had conducted his own background checks on all of Truflation’s new hires. “They sent us their passports and ID cards, gave us GitHub repos, went through a test, and then, basically, we brought them on.”

To the untrained eye, most of the forged documents look indistinguishable from authentic passports and visas, though experts told CoinDesk that they probably would have been caught by professional background-checking services.

Although startups are less likely to use professional background checkers, “we do see North Korean IT workers at bigger companies as well, either as real employees or at least as contractors,” said Monahan.

Hiding in plain sight

In many cases, CoinDesk discovered DPRK IT workers at companies using publicly available blockchain data.

In 2021, Manian, the blockchain developer, needed some help at his company, Iqlusion. He sought out freelance coders who might be able to help with a project to upgrade the popular Cosmos Hub blockchain. He found two recruits; they delivered capably.

Manian never met the freelancers, “Jun Kai” and “Sarawut Sanit,” in person. They had previously worked together on an open-source software project funded by THORChain, a closely affiliated blockchain network, and they told Manian they were based in Singapore.

“I talked to them almost every day for a year,” said Manian. “They did the work. And I was, frankly, pretty pleased.”

Two years after the freelancers completed their work, Manian received an email from an FBI agent investigating token transfers that appeared to have come from Iqlusion en route to suspected North Korean crypto wallet addresses. The transfers in question turned out to be Iqlusion’s payments to Kai and Sanit.

The FBI never confirmed to Manian that the developers he’d contracted were agents of the DPRK, but CoinDesk’s review of Kai and Sanit’s blockchain addresses showed that throughout 2021 and 2022, they funneled their earnings to two individuals on OFAC’s sanctions list: Kim Sang Man and Sim Hyon Sop.

Acording to OFAC, Sim is a representative for Kwangson Banking Corp, a North Korean bank that launders IT worker funds to help “finance the DPRK’s WMD and ballistic missile programs.” Sarawut appears to have funneled all of his earnings to Sim and other Sim-linked blockchain wallets.

Kai, meanwhile, funneled nearly $8 million directly to Kim. According to a 2023 OFAC advisory, Kim is a representative for the DPRK-operated Chinyong Information Technology Cooperation Company, which, “by way of companies under its control and their representatives, employs delegations of DPRK IT workers that operate in Russia and Laos.”

Iqlusion’s wages to Kai accounted for less than $50,000 of the nearly $8 million he sent to Kim, and some of the remaining funds came from other crypto companies.

For example, CoinDesk discovered payments from the Fantom Foundation, which develops the widely-used Fantom blockchain, to “Jun Kai” and another DPRK-linked developer.

“Fantom did identify two external personnel as being involved with North Korea in 2021,” a Fantom Foundation spokesperson told CoinDesk. “However, the developers in question worked on an external project that was never finished and never deployed.”

According to the Fantom Foundation, “The two individuals in question were terminated, never contributed any malicious code nor ever had access to Fantom’s codebase, and no users of Fantom were impacted.” One of the DPRK workers attempted to attack Fantom’s servers but failed because he lacked the requisite access, according to the spokesperson.

According to the OpenSanctions database, Kim’s DPRK-linked blockchain addresses were not published by any governments until May 2023 – more than two years after Iqlusion and Fantom made their payments.

Leeway given

The U.S. and the UN sanctioned the hiring of DPRK IT workers in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

It is illegal to pay North Korean workers in the U.S. whether you know you’re doing it or not—a legal concept called “strict liability.”

It doesn’t necessarily matter where a company is based, either: Hiring workers from the DPRK can carry legal risks for any company that does business in countries that enforce sanctions against North Korea.

However, the U.S. and other U.N. member states have yet to prosecute a crypto company for hiring North Korean IT workers.

The U.S. Treasury Department opened an inquiry into Iqlusion, which is based in the U.S., but Manian says the investigation concluded without any penalties.

U.S. authorities have been lenient about bringing charges against the firms – on some level acknowledging that they were victims of, at best, an unusually elaborate and sophisticated type of identity fraud, or, at worst, a long con of the most humiliating sort.

Legal risks aside, paying DPRK IT workers is also “bad because you’re paying people that are basically being exploited by the regime,” explained MetaMask’s Monahan.

According to the UN Security Council’s 615-page report, DPRK IT workers only keep a small portion of their paychecks. “Lower earners keep 10 percent while the highest earners could keep 30 percent, ” the report states.

While these wages might still be high relative to the average in North Korea, “I don’t care where they live,” said Monahan. “If I am paying someone and they’re literally being forced to send their entire paycheck to their boss, that would make me very uncomfortable. It would make me more uncomfortable if their boss is, you know, the North Korean regime.”

CoinDesk reached out to multiple suspected DPRK IT workers over the course of reporting but did not hear back.

Coming forward

CoinDesk identified more than two dozen companies that employed possible DPRK IT workers by analyzing blockchain payment records to OFAC-sanctioned entities. Twelve companies presented with the records confirmed to CoinDesk that they had previously discovered suspected DPRK IT workers on their payrolls.

Some declined to comment further for fear of legal repercussions, but others agreed to share their stories with the hope that others could learn from their experiences.

In many cases, DPRK employees proved easier to identify after they’d been hired.

Eric Chen, CEO of Injective, a decentralized finance-focused project, said that he contracted a freelance developer in 2020 but quickly fired him for underperformance.

“He didn’t last long,” said Chen. “He was writing crappy code that didn’t work well.” It wasn’t until this past year, when a U.S. “government agency” reached out to Injective, that Chen learned the employee was linked to North Korea.

Several companies told CoinDesk that they fired an employee before even knowing about any links to the DPRK – say, due to substandard work.

‘Milk payroll for a few months’

However, DPRK IT workers are similar to typical developers in that their aptitudes can vary.

On the one hand, you’ll have employees who “show up, get through an interview process, and just milk payroll for a few months of salary,” said Manian. “There’s also another side of it, which is you encounter these people who, when you interview them, their actual technical chops are really strong.”

Rust recalled having “one really good developer” at Truflation who claimed he was from Vancouver but turned out to be from North Korea. “He was really a young kid,” Rust said. “It felt like he was just out of college. A bit green behind the ears, super keen, really excited to be working on an opportunity.”

In another instance, Cluster, a decentralized finance startup, fired two developers in August after ZachXBT reached out with evidence that they were linked to the DPRK.

“It’s actually crazy how much these guys knew,” Cluster’s pseudonymous founder, z3n, told CoinDesk. In retrospect, there were some “clear red flags.” For example, “every two weeks they changed their payment address, and every month or so they would change their Discord name or Telegram name.”

Webcam off

In conversations with CoinDesk, many employers said they noticed abnormalities that made more sense when they learned that their employees were probably North Korean.

Sometimes the hints were subtle, like employees working hours that didn’t match their supposed work location.

Other employers, like Truflation, noticed hints that an employee was multiple people masquerading as a single individual – something the employee would try to hide by keeping his webcam off. (They’re almost always men).

One company hired an employee who showed up for meetings in the morning but would seem to forget everything that was discussed later on in the day – a quirk that made more sense when the employer realized she’d been speaking to multiple people.

When Rust brought his concerns about Ryuhei, his “Japanese” employee, to an investor with experience tracking criminal payment networks, the investor quickly identified the four other suspected DPRK IT workers on Truflation’s payroll.

“We immediately cut our ties,” Rust said, adding that his team conducted a security audit of its code, enhanced its background-checking processes and changed certain policies. One new policy was to require remote workers to turn on their cameras.

A $3M hack

Many of the employers consulted by CoinDesk were under the mistaken impression that DPRK IT workers operate independently from North Korea’s hacking arm, but blockchain data and conversations with experts reveal that the regime’s hacking activities and IT workers are frequently linked.

In September 2021, MISO, a platform built by Sushi for launching crypto tokens, lost $3 million in a widely reported heist. CoinDesk found evidence that the attack was linked to Sushi’s hiring of two developers with blockchain payment records connected to North Korea.

At the time of the hack, Sushi was one of the most-talked-about platforms in the emerging world of decentralized finance (DeFi). More than $5 billion had been deposited into SushiSwap, which mainly serves as a “decentralized exchange” for people to swap between cryptocurrencies without intermediaries.

Joseph Delong, Sushi’s chief technology officer at the time, traced the MISO heist to two freelance developers who helped to build it: individuals using the names Anthony Keller and Sava Grujic. Delong said the developers – who he now suspects were a single person or organization – injected malicious code into the MISO platform, redirecting funds to a wallet they controlled.

When Keller and Grujic were contracted by Sushi DAO, the decentralized autonomous organization that governs the Sushi protocol, they supplied credentials that seemed typical enough – even impressive – for entry-level developers.

Keller operated under the pseudonym “eratos1122” in public, but when he applied to work on MISO he used what appeared to be his real name, “Anthony Keller.” In a resume that Delong shared with CoinDesk, Keller claimed to reside in Gainesville, Georgia, and to have graduated from the University of Phoenix with a bachelor’s degree in computer engineering. (The university didn’t respond to a request for confirmation of whether there was a graduate by that name.)

Keller’s resume included genuine references to previous work. Among the most impressive was Yearn Finance, an extremely popular crypto investment protocol that offers users a way to earn interest across a range of pre-made investment strategies. Banteg, a core developer at Yearn, confirmed that Keller worked on Coordinape, an app built by Yearn to help teams collaborate and facilitate payments. (Banteg says Keller’s work was restricted to Coordinape and he didn’t have access to Yearn’s core codebase.)

Keller referred Grujic to MISO and the two presented themselves as “friends,” according to Delong. Like Keller, Grujic supplied a resume with his supposed real name rather than his online pseudonym, “AristoK3.” He claimed to be from Serbia and a graduate of the University of Belgrade with a bachelor’s degree in computer science. His GitHub account was active, and his resume listed experience with several smaller crypto projects and gaming startups.

Rachel Chu, a former core developer at Sushi who worked closely with Keller and Grujic before the heist, said she was already “suspicious” of the pair before any hack had taken place.

Despite claiming to be based across the globe from one another, Grujic and Keller “had the same accent” and the “same way of texting,” said Chu. “Every time we talked, they’d have some background noise, like they’re in a factory,” she added. Chu recalled seeing Keller’s face but never Grujic’s. According to Chu, Keller’s camera was “zoomed in” so that she couldn’t ever make out what was behind him.

Keller and Grujic eventually stopped contributing to MISO around the same time. “We think that Anthony and Sava are the same guy,” said Delong, “so we stop paying them.” This was the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it was not unheard of for remote crypto developers to masquerade as multiple people to extract extra money from payroll.

After Keller and Grujic were let go in the summer of 2021, the Sushi team neglected to revoke their access to the MISO codebase.

On Sept. 2, Grujic committed malicious code to the MISO platform under his “Aristok3” screen name, redirecting $3 million to a new cryptocurrency wallet, based on a screenshot provided to CoinDesk.

CoinDesk’s analysis of blockchain payment records suggests a potential link between Keller, Grujic and North Korea. In March 2021, Keller posted a blockchain address in a now-deleted tweet. CoinDesk discovered multiple payments between this address, Grujic’s hacker address and the addresses Sushi had on file for Keller. Sushi’s internal investigation ultimately concluded that the address belonged to Keller, according to Delong.

CoinDesk found that the address in question sent most of its funds to “Jun Kai” (the Iqlusion developer who sent money to the OFAC-sanctioned Kim Sang Man) and another wallet that appears to serve as a DPRK proxy (because it, too, paid Kim).

Lending further credence to the theory that Keller and Grujic were North Korean, Sushi’s internal investigation found that the pair frequently operated using IP addresses in Russia, which is where OFAC says North Korea’s DPRK IT workers are sometimes based. (The U.S. phone number on Keller’s resume is out of service, and his “eratos1122” Github and Twitter accounts have been deleted.)

Additionally, CoinDesk discovered evidence that Sushi employed another suspected DPRK IT contractor at the same time as Keller and Grujic. The developer, identified by ZachXBT as “Gary Lee,” coded under the pseudonym LightFury and funneled his earnings to “Jun Kai” and another Kim-linked proxy address.

After Sushi publicly pinned the attack on Keller’s pseudonym, “eratos1122,” and threatened to involve the FBI, Grujic returned the stolen funds. While it might seem counterintuitive that a DPRK IT worker would care about protecting a fake identity, DPRK IT workers seem to reuse certain names and build up their reputations over time by contributing to many projects, perhaps as a way to earn credibility with future employers.

Someone might have decided that protecting the Anthony Keller alias was more lucrative in the long run: In 2023, two years after the Sushi incident, someone named “Anthony Keller” applied to Truflation, Stefan Rust’s company.

Attempts to contact “Anthony Keller” and “Sava Grujic” for comment were unsuccessful.

DPRK-style heists

North Korea has stolen more than $3 billion in cryptocurrency through hacks over the past seven years, according to the UN. Of the hacks that blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis has tracked in the first half of 2023 and which it believes are connected to the DPRK, “approximately half of them involved IT worker-related theft,” said Madeleine Kennedy, a spokesperson for the firm.

North Korean cyberattacks don’t tend to resemble the Hollywood version of hacking, where hoodie-wearing programmers break into mainframes using sophisticated computer code and black-and-green computer terminals.

DPRK-style attacks are decidedly lower-tech. They usually involve some version of social engineering, where the attacker earns the trust of a victim who holds the keys to a system and then extracts those keys directly through something as simple as a malicious email link.

“To date, we have never seen DPRK do, like, a real exploit,” said Monahan. “It’s always: social engineering, and then compromise the device, and then compromise the private keys.”

IT workers are well-placed to contribute to DPRK heists, either by extracting personal information that could be used to sabotage a potential target or by gaining direct access to software systems flush with digital cash.

A series of coincidences

On Sept. 25, as this article was nearing publication, CoinDesk was scheduled for a video call with Truflation’s Rust. The plan was to fact-check some details he had shared previously.

A flustered Rust joined the call 15 minutes late. He’d just been hacked.

CoinDesk reached out to more than two dozen projects that appeared to have been duped into hiring DPRK IT workers. In the final two weeks of reporting alone, two of those projects were hacked: Truflation and a crypto borrowing app called Delta Prime.

It’s too early to determine if either hack was directly connected to any inadvertent hiring of DPRK IT workers.

Delta Prime was breached first, on Sept. 16. CoinDesk had previously uncovered payments and code contributions connecting Delta Prime to Naoki Murano, one of the DPRK-linked developers publicized by ZachXBT, the pseudonymous blockchain sleuth.

The project lost more than $7 million, officially because of “a compromised private key.” Delta Prime did not respond to numerous requests for comment.

The Truflation hack followed less than two weeks later. Rust noticed funds streaming out of his crypto wallet around two hours before the call with CoinDesk. He had just returned home from a trip to Singapore and was scrambling to make sense of what he’d done wrong. “I just have no idea how it happened,” he said. “I had my notebooks all locked up in the safe in the wall in my hotel. I had my mobile with me the whole time.”

Millions of dollars were leaving Rust’s personal blockchain wallets as he was speaking. “I mean, that really sucks. That’s my kids’ school; pension fees.”

Truflation and Rust ultimately lost around $5 million. The official cause was a stolen private key.

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