Etiket: See

Macro State of Crypto – Where It Has Been and What’s Next

Analytics can offer insight into how recent and past crypto and regulatory events have affected prices and movement. Plus: A quick Q&A on retirement funds.

Geçen hafta ABD’li bir Yargıç, XRP’nin menkul kıymet olmadığına karar verdi ve SEC, BlackRock bitcoin ETF başvurusunu kabul ederek onay sürecinin bir sonraki aşamasına geçti. Bu XRP haberinden birkaç dakika sonra, token 0,45 dolardan 0,61 dolara sıçradı ve fiyatı %25’in üzerine çıkardı. Bu kararlar ve daha pek çok karar, daha da fazla düzenleyici soruya yol açsa da, kural değişikliklerinin dijital varlık oynaklığında önemli bir faktör olduğu açıktır.

Dijital varlıklar konusunda bir danışman olarak, mevcut düzenleyici olayların ve son başarısızlıkların bitcoin, ether ve altcoinler için fiyatlandırmayı ve ticaret hacmini nasıl etkilediğini düşünmelisiniz.

Aşağıda, Amberdata’dan Greg Magadini, bizi kripto ve düzenleyici olaylara götürüyor ve bu olayların fiyatları ve hareketi nasıl etkilediğine dair bazı analizler sağlıyor.

Also, can we include crypto in retirement funds? Thanks to Bryan Courchese from Daim for answering this week’s questions on the topic.

– S.M.

You’re reading Crypto for Advisors, CoinDesk’s weekly newsletter that unpacks digital assets for financial advisors. Subscribe here to get it every Thursday.

Macro state of crypto – where it has been and what’s next

In 2022, Terra Luna’s collapse, the crypto hedge fund 3AC’s bankruptcy, FTX’s scandal and other meltdowns pushed the industry into a bear market. These headlines drove the entire sector lower, often led by altcoins.

However, the first half of 2023 flipped a lot of these crypto relationships on their head as macro economic events splashed news headlines.

Bitcoin led crypto higher in January as the Fed’s hawkish narrative began to soften. This move was accompanied by a positive “spot/vol” regime, with traders buying options as Bitcoin rallied – a relationship not witnessed in 2022 when only price crashes seemed to drive volatility higher.

The takeaway was that bitcoin was trading on fundamental macro news, as opposed to crypto specific events.

If Ethereum is a crypto “technology bet,” bitcoin is a monetary alternative “pure-play.”

YTD performance of BTC (orange) and ETH (blue)

This narrative juxtaposition became obvious in March as the SVB banking crisis took hold.

Comparing the YTD performance of BTC and ETH spot prices, we can clearly see that BTC began an outperformance of ETH in reaction to the banking crisis and the Fed’s emergency response.

BTC has been able to hold onto this outperformance ever since.

YTD Ratio of implied volatility (ETH DVol divided by BTC DVol)

To see further evidence of a shift in these trading dynamics (a move towards macro events and a shift away from crypto specific news) we can observe the forward-looking option market activity.

The ratio of Deribit’s DVOL indexes, a comprehensive 30-day to maturity measure of option implied volatility (think the VIX of BTC and the VIX of ETH), shows us that the typical implied volatility premium of ETH over BTC began to dissipate in reaction to macro news events.

In mid-January we saw a market adjustment from the Fed beginning to slow down its hawkishness. This sent BTC higher and BTC IV (implied volatility) relatively higher (chart goes down).

Then in early February we saw a major outperformance linked to the Labor Department’s monthly non-farm payrolls (NFP) number. This quickly killed the idea of a Fed hawkish slowdown; BTC dropped (along with gold and other interest-rate sensitive assets) and BTC IV went down, relative to ETH IV (chart goes up).

The SVB crisis again nudged BTC IV higher, only to be temporarily paused by the ETH Shanghai upgrade.

Today, ETH IV trades around parity to BTC IV, even briefly at a discount.

Where does this leave us for the second half of 2023?

The Fed remains in a “wait-and-see” mode, after recently doing a “rate skip” at their June FOMC meeting. Although other central banks continue to raise rates, the U.S. macro picture is moving into the background as crypto specific news events become “top-of-mind.”

The regulatory events surrounding Binance, Coinbase and XRP are becoming major drivers of activity.

Today, BTC is defined as a commodity, while ETH’s categorization is more ambiguous.

This means there’s increased sensitivity for ETH’s “technology bet” narrative around regulation. A lot of ETH’s value comes from its utilization and the various DeFi, NFT and ERC-20 protocols built on top of the Ethereum infrastructure.

Lately, volatility surrounding the consumer price index (CPI), NFP and other macro events seems to have settled down, while regulatory clarity around crypto, a potential spot ETF approval and the XRP resolution is becoming a key focus; this paradigm shift could lead the market towards higher beta “altcoins” in the crypto space.

Historically, altcoins have outperformed BTC in bull markets, and the second half of 2023 is off to a bullish start, so far accompanied by mostly favorable crypto-specific news headlines.

That the recent events have increased ETH IV relative to BTC IV offers a hint that option traders are also paying attention.

– Greg Magadini, CFA Amberdata

Ask an Advisor

I help clients include crypto in their retirement accounts.

– Bryan Courchesne, CEO Daim

Q: Can advisors invest in crypto in 401K (retirement) accounts for their clients?

A: The short answer is yes, you can invest crypto in a range of retirement accounts from 401K plans to individual retirement accounts. First, make sure that you are speaking to a licensed investment advisor. Investment management is highly regulated so your Bitcoin advisor should be properly licensed. Ask for the advisor and their firm’s CRD #. You can look it up on brokercheck.org to vet that they are legit.

Q: Can my clients hold crypto in these accounts, or just funds?

A: Short answer both. The accounts could hold pure crypto, a crypto futures fund, a trust product (Like GBTC), or equities like COIN stock (which the company holds pure Bitcoin on their balance sheet.) In any investment besides pure crypto the main things to consider are tracking differences from the underlying and different fee structures.

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Welcome, Crypto, to the Fiery Cauldron of U.S. Presidential Politics

Before the push for the White House really gets rolling, digital assets – including bitcoins and CBDCs – are being hefted as ideological effigies, but will it matter?

Whether the crypto industry wants the spotlight or not, digital assets are among the earliest talking points in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with the most prominent of the new candidates even invoking bitcoins in his campaign opener as evidence of President Joe Biden’s missteps.

In an election in which the heaviest fireworks will likely be seen on the side of the Republican challengers, former President Donald Trump – occupying the role as Biden’s leading nemesis – is himself facing an early-days threat from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who immediately staked out crypto as a kind of political shorthand.

“The current regime, clearly, has it out for Bitcoin,” DeSantis said from his campaign’s Twitter Spaces launch pad, using crypto to represent innovation and personal freedom. “Bitcoin represents a threat to them, they’re trying to regulate it out of existence.”

If digital assets keep figuring into presidential politics, they’ll likely feature as a stand-in to illustrate the perceived abuses of the federal government, according to industry insiders and political experts. But the attention may not contribute to the policy progress crypto businesses crave, because the sector is waiting for comprehensive rules, not political sentiments.

So far, Biden’s administration is being accused of squeezing emerging crypto businesses and trying to set up a central bank digital currency (CBDC) to spy on citizens, according to DeSantis and one of Biden’s challengers from his own party, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

For DeSantis, his pro-crypto position also separates him from chief rival Trump. The digital assets views of the Republican frontrunner for the 2024 nomination have historically been rooted in distrust, with Trump having declared in 2019 that he was “not a fan” of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, “whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air.” However, more recently Trump profited from his own series of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), so his position remains murky.

Two weeks before DeSantis opened his campaign beside tech mogul Elon Musk, he sought to make a political moment out of his state’s “ban” of a U.S. CBDC. Experts in the commercial law Florida used to act against a potential digital dollar have said Florida’s effort isn’t a ban at all, but that might not matter for political supporters impressed by DeSantis’ zeal.

“He seems to understand that private solutions being developed in the crypto markets are likely to be superior, in part because they pose fewer risks to the individual liberty of the public,” said Dave Weisberger, CEO of CoinRoutes, a trading tech startup in DeSantis’ home state.

But DeSantis is generally vague about his defense of cryptocurrencies, and his remarks don’t seem to acknowledge they are online instruments that can operate outside the whims of sovereign states. When he says that Democrats – given another four years – will “probably end up killing it,” it seems to suggest the U.S. lawmakers would have more reach than they do, and that crypto won’t find homes in other global jurisdictions, such as in Europe.

“It’s more about how he’s trying to paint himself as a fresh face,” said Ron Hammond, director of government relations for the Blockchain Association in Washington. “He’s trying to say ‘I’m the younger gun here who’s trying to get something done.’”

In the know

A rival Republican candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, has argued the Florida governor doesn’t know the topic well. The biotech entrepreneur told CoinDesk he’s pro-Bitcoin because he sees it as a “decentralized alternative” to the U.S dollar, improving the country’s financial infrastructure by presenting “a source of competition to the existing system.” And he says he understands it much more than DeSantis.

Other notable Republican candidates, such as Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and his state’s former governor, Nikki Haley, have reserved comment on the financial movement. Despite his position on the Senate Banking Committee that could help decide U.S. crypto’s fate, Scott has taken the most neutral possible stance, saying lawmakers should take a “thoughtful, bipartisan and balanced approach” to overseeing the industry in the U.S.

Among the Democratic challengers to standard-bearer Biden, Kennedy – who also holds other views that overlap with Republican positions – is fervently pro-crypto.

“Cryptocurrencies, led by bitcoin, along with other crypto technologies are a major innovation engine,” Kennedy wrote in a tweet earlier this month. “It is a mistake for the U.S. government to hobble the industry and drive innovation elsewhere.”

The most popular of the pro-crypto candidates among voters, DeSantis, still trails well behind Trump in primary polling, but the fact that there are multiple candidates saying nice things about digital assets is a positive for some in the sector.

“We now have three presidential candidates, spanning both political parties, who explicitly support the digital asset industry,” CoinRoutes’ Weisberger said. “While Republicans are trying to make crypto a partisan issue, the industry itself doesn’t believe it should be, which is why the support from RFK Jr. is also potentially important.”

Biden is the only candidate with a federal record on digital assets. So far, his administration hasn’t set down any significant crypto policy, and the financial regulators he picked have taken a staunchly critical view of the industry. His Securities and Exchange Commission chief, Gary Gensler, may be the most antagonistic of the bunch, combating digital assets businesses in courtrooms and with his agency’s rule proposals. And the direct messages from Biden’s Department of the Treasury and his own White House have been increasingly suspicious of the industry.

Though it wasn’t a campaign remark, Biden, who last month formally announced

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