Prizmabet

Crypto at a Pivotal Moment

The U.S. election combined with an easier monetary environment could spark the next crypto bull market, says David Lawant.

Seismic events often trigger crypto-asset market cycle transitions. The 2016-2017 cycle was largely industry-driven, expanding crypto’s reach beyond early adopters. In contrast, the 2020-2021 surge was propelled by unprecedented COVID-era interest rate cuts.

Now, two powerful catalysts converge: the looming 2024 U.S. elections and a nascent global liquidity cycle for risk assets. This potent combination could shatter bitcoin’s $58,000 to $70,000 trading range, where it has largely remained since late March, potentially igniting the next major market movement.

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2024 U.S. elections likely to gain importance as election day nears

This election cycle marks several firsts for crypto, primarily how the industry emerged as a relevant topic in political discourse and campaign financing. Another interesting trend is how Polymarket, a breakthrough crypto application, now provides real-time estimates of consensus on election results, with over $1 billion at stake.

The chart below shows the relationship between two factors over 3-day periods: changes in Republican win odds on Polymarket and changes in bitcoin prices as a proxy for overall crypto market performance. Different election phases are color-coded: gray for the initial phase (before June 26), red for the period of Republican momentum (between the end of June and the end of July), blue for Democratic gains (between the end of July and mid-August), and black for the final stretch (since mid-August).

If the market linked crypto prices directly to Republican win odds, the dots in the chart above would form an upward-sloping 45-degree line. Conversely, a direct link to Democratic win odds would show a similar, but downward-sloping, line. Instead, we see a scattered cloud of dots, indicating no clear, consistent trend between election outcomes and crypto prices so far.

This dynamic is evident across all phases highlighted in different colors throughout the scatterplot. Although the relationship is stronger during the phase of Republican momentum, it still explains less than 20% of bitcoin price movements.

This doesn’t mean the elections are unimportant for crypto price action. It is possible, if not likely, that this relationship strengthens as we approach Election Day, now less than one month away. But this inconsistent relationship suggests that other critical factors have also been dominating crypto market price action.

Interest rate outlook hints at novel regime for crypto prices

Recent global liquidity shifts have driven markets worldwide, including crypto. The Federal Reserve’s strong start to this rate-cut cycle, coupled with China’s surprising market-lifting measures, likely fueled crypto’s recent price surge.

Unlike equities, crypto lacks extensive historical data for gauging returns across different interest rate regimes.

Nevertheless, examining crypto prices against rate environments remains instructive. The chart below shows the effective federal funds rate alongside Treasury constant-maturity yields from 1-year to 30-year tenors. For context, the lower chart displays bitcoin’s USD price (in log scale for perspective), with color-coded market cycles: green for the 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 bull markets, red for the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.

This chart suggests that a soft landing with lower rates — the current investor consensus — would create an unprecedented macro backdrop for crypto. This scenario differs from both the industry-driven 2016-2017 cycle and the COVID era, rate-cut-fueled, 2020-2021 surge.

Consequently, macroeconomic factors are expected to significantly influence crypto prices in the near term, as evidenced by strengthening correlations between crypto and broader risk assets.

Looking ahead

Low crypto liquidity following Labor Day indicates a market in wait-and-see mode. While factors such as geopolitical tensions and supply/demand imbalances can still influence the market, two primary drivers most likely to define market direction into 2025 are still the upcoming election and global liquidity conditions. The next one to three months will be crucial in revealing how these trends will unfold.

Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.

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BlackRock Highlights Bitcoin’s Unique Properties, Believes BTC is Risk-Off in the Long Term

BlackRock’s latest report shows that bitcoin has a very low correlation to U.S. equities on a trailing six-month basis.

BlackRock released a report last week, titled “bitcoin as a unique diversifier.”

The investment giant identified four key points from the report. First, how to analyze bitcoin (BTC) in relation to traditional financial assets due to its fundamental properties, such as not having a quarterly earnings report or a CEO.

Second, bitcoin’s high volatility can be perceived as a “risky” asset, which contributes to the discussion that whether it is a “risk-on” or “risk-off” asset. The token could be considered a flight-to-safety option because it is scarce, non-sovereign, and decentralized. Lastly, BlackRock pointed out that the long-term adoption of bitcoin may come from global instability.

Bitcoin’s realized volatility trends downwards

Bitcoin’s realized volatility continues to trend downwards over time, indicating increased stability. In the early years of bitcoin, its realized volatility used to trade over 200%; however, as the asset matured, so did the volatility.

Since 2018, realized volatility has not exceeded 100% and is currently at 50%. As realized volatility decreases and liquidity increases through financial instruments such as the spot and futures market, this may bring in more sophisticated investors such as options traders. This seems to be on the horizon with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of physically settled options tied to BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF.

Risk-on or risk-off?

BlackRock also asked the question: Is bitcoin risk-on or risk-off? While short-term trading may suggest that bitcoin behaves like a risk-on asset, the data reveals a different narrative over a longer time horizon.

According to data from bitcoin custody service Unchained, “almost all holders (99%+) are in profit if they held for just three years. All bitcoin holders in this class are in profit if they held for at least 5 years”.

We can see this type of mentality on-chain among investors, where over 65% of the circulating bitcoin supply has remained unmoved for more than one year, according to Glassnode. This trend suggests that many investors tend to hold bitcoin because they believe in its store-of-value narrative and view it as a risk-off asset, even though bitcoin has faced multiple 20% corrections in 2024.

Low historical correlation with U.S equities

BlackRock also showed that bitcoin has a very low correlation to U.S. equities. A graph shows the trailing 6-month S&P 500 correlation with bitcoin; the average correlation is 0.2 since 2015. Sometimes, assets will trade near one-to-one with one another due to external macro factors, most likely in risk-off or liquidity events.

The report notes, “These episodes have been short-term in nature and have failed to produce a clear long-term statistically significant correlation relationship.”

Bitcoin outperforms other risk-on assets after major events

Continuing with the theme of having a long-term time preference, BlackRock noted that bitcoin tends to outperform other risk-on assets after 60 days following a major geopolitical event.

The U.S.- Iran escalation in 2020 saw bitcoin return 20% after 60 days, outperforming gold and S&P 500. This was also the case for Covid-19, the 2020 U.S. election challenges, the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. regional banking crisis, and most recently, the Yen Carry trade unwind on Aug. 5.

During the recent Yen carry trade unwind on Aug. 5, which was now 53 days ago, major assets experienced declines on the day. However, bitcoin has risen by 22% since then, with gold and the S&P 500 up roughly 11%.

Bitcoin Prices Show Positive 30-Day Correlation With China’s Central Bank Balance Sheet

“The new inflow of cash could indirectly push up the price of bitcoin, particularly in the long term perspective,” one analyst said.

Bitcoin (BTC) prices seem to have tracked the growth in the Chinese central bank’s balance sheet over the past eight years, maintaining a notable positive 30-day correlation.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), holds roughly $6.22 trillion worth of U.S. dollars on its balance sheet. At press time, the 30-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin’s price and the PBOC’s balance sheet size was 0.66, according to data source TradingView. Its always been positive except 2016 and from late 2022 to 2023. On the other hand, as of writing, bitcoin had a -0.88 correlation over 30 days with the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, the lowest on record since 2016.

A strong correlation means a co-efficient of 0.6-0.9, and 0.8-1 is considered a very strong correlation. Correlations are a statistical measure of how two variables are related and can be used in financial markets to predict or track asset prices.

The positive correlation is noteworthy as early this week, the PBOC said it was considering injecting up to 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) of capital into its biggest state banks to increase their capacity to support the struggling economy.

The central bank also cut the reserve requirement ratio for mainland banks by 50 basis points (bps) while lowering the seven-day reverse repo rate – the interest rate at which a central bank borrows funds from commercial banks – by 20 bps to 1.5%.

BTC has gained nearly 3% this week and is up over 10% for the month, according to CoinDesk data. Asian stocks led by China have also surged in the wake of PBOC’s stimulus bazooka. The CSI 300 Index of large-cap shares soared 4.5% on Friday, bringing this week’s gain to 16% in the biggest run since 2008.

Like the U.S., China’s stimulus aims to lower unemployment and spur business growth. The new inflow of cash could indirectly push up the price of Bitcoin, particularly from a long-term perspective, market analyst Nick Ruck told CoinDesk in a Telegram message on Friday.

“The stimulus could lead to increased investment in blockchain companies that may include mining technology and startups,” Ruck said. “Select funds may also be able to increase exposure to crypto-related investments offshore, such as in stock-listed firms and ETFs in Hong Kong.”

The bump won’t be limited to bitcoin, some say, as all riskier assets are expected to get a boost in the coming months.

“It’s all the green light for global risk markets as U.S. equities hit new ATHs for the 3rd time this week, helped by a rapid-fire of furious stimulus to resuscitate the long-struggling Chinese economy,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk. “This has led macro observers to turn explicitly bullish on all risk assets in the interim, with a seemingly globally synchronized easing move that was reminiscent of the easy-money days from the QE era.”

“Naturally, crypto prices are still highly correlated to equity performance. However, investor sentiment seems to have flipped to a ‘buy the dip’ mode, and risk-reward favors a continued rally with no or little downside catalysts in sight,” Fan added.

The Fed Pivot is Finally Here

Last week, the Fed cut its federal funds target rate by 50 bps to 5.00% p.a. (upper limit) which could have strong implications for the crypto community, says Andre Dragosh, head of research Europe, CoinShares.

“The time has come,” stated Fed chairman Jerome Powell back in August at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. Last week, the Fed cut its federal funds target rate by 50 bps to 5.00% p.a. (upper limit) which was slightly more than markets had priced in before the FOMC meeting. In other words, the Fed positively surprised markets with this rate cut.

It is quite likely that the Fed is just getting started with rate cuts. At the time of writing, the market already expects 3 additional cuts (75 bps) by year-end and another 5 cuts (125 bps) next year through December 2025. The Fed has also telegraphed additional cuts via its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) (aka “dot plot”).

Nonetheless, despite this more-than-expected interest rate reduction of 50 bps, it is quite likely that the Fed still remains “behind the curve.”

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For instance, a standard Taylor rule based on the unemployment rate and core PCE inflation implies that a fed funds target rate of around 3.6% p.a. is already warranted based on the underlying economic and inflationary momentum.

In addition, the latest fund manager survey by Bank of America indicates that monetary policy was still “too restrictive” in September 2024 – in fact, the most restrictive since October 2008 according to this survey.

There still remains an increased risk of a recession as several reliable indicators such as the prominent “Sahm rule” remain triggered.

That being said, our quantitative analyses imply that global growth has become less relevant for the performance of bitcoin while other factors like monetary policy or the US dollar have become more important.

In other words, a US recession might not be as negative as widely anticipated for bitcoin and other cryptoassets. To the contrary, it may lead to even more Fed rate cut expectations and US Dollar weakness which could provide even more tailwind.

With the latest move by the Fed and other major central banks, the global liquidity tide is clearly turning; global money supply has already reached new all-time highs and is accelerating. Expansionary money supply growth periods are usually associated with bitcoin bull runs.

The re-steepening of the US yield curve which tends to be a recessionary indicator is also an indicator for increasing liquidity and therefore bullish for scarce assets like bitcoin.

What is more is that the increase in global liquidity is coinciding with the increasing supply scarcity of bitcoin which has been intensifying since the latest halving in April 2024.

Our analyses have shown that there tends to be a significant lag between the halving event itself and the moment the supply shock starts to become significant, as the supply deficit only tends to accumulate gradually over time.

So, it appears as if there is a perfect confluence between an increase in potential demand via global money supply and a simultaneous reduction in available supply via the halving.

The market has been mired in “chopsolidation” – a choppy consolidating range-bound market – since the latest all-time high in March 2024. This was due to several factors such as government sales of bitcoin, Mt. Gox trustee’s distribution of bitcoins, or the macro capitulation in early August 2024.

In this context, the summer months have generally been one of the worst performing months for bitcoin historically with September being the worst month of the year.

However, Q4 tends to be the best month for bitcoin from a pure performance seasonality perspective and we also expect bitcoin to break out of this chopsolidation in Q4.

It seems as if the wait for a new break-out to the upside is finally over. The Fed pivot may have just delivered the perfect catalyst for that.

Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.

Ethereum’s Changing Landscape

For investors, ETH’s future depends on how Ethereum balances innovation with maintaining healthy economic policy, says Matthew Kimmel, digital asset analyst, CoinShares.

Ethereum’s ability to host a wide-range of applications and assets has been evident for years, but the investment case for its native token, ETH, has become increasingly complex. In the wake of key protocol changes, particularly the hardforks activating EIP-1559 and EIP-4844, investors are asking how Ethereum’s adoption will translate into ETH’s long-term value.

While the platform has scaled, the relationship between its growth and ETH’s supply and demand — and thus its price — is no longer as straightforward as it once seemed.

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The EIP-1559 revolution: linking utility to token value

When Ethereum implemented EIP-1559 in 2021, it introduced a burn mechanism where the overwhelming majority of transaction fees (base fees) would be permanently removed from circulation. This created a direct relationship between Ethereum usage and ETH’s supply. As users paid for transactions on the Ethereum network, the burn would act as a deflationary force, reducing ETH’s supply and putting upwards pressure on its price.

In 2023, our valuation model at CoinShares showed that under the right conditions, where Ethereum generated $10 billion annually in L1 transaction fees, something it achieved at its 2021 heights, ETH could reach a value near $8,000 by 2028.

Since then, however, optimism has waned due to the Dencun hardfork and the rise of Layer-2s (L2), which have upended the fee burn and altered ETH’s value potential.

The rise of layer-2s: a double-edged sword

L2 platforms were designed to scale Ethereum by moving transactions off the main chain (L1) and onto faster, cheaper networks. Initially, L2s complemented L1, helping the network handle more transactions without clogging the base chain — like a pressure release valve giving balance in times of high usage.

But with the introduction of “blob space” in 2024, L2s could now settle transactions on L1 at much lower costs, reducing their requirement to pay expensive L1 fees. As more activity migrated to L2s, the supply burn that EIP-1559 was designed to instill began to drop, weakening the downward pressure on ETH’s supply.

The reality of Ethereum generating high L1 fees to support ETH’s value is now looking bleak. L1 transaction fees have steadily collapsed, leading to questions about what differentiates the services offered at each layer, and what will drive the L1 fee landscape moving forward.

A path forward: restoring the burn or adapting to new realities

Despite these challenges, there are potential paths forward to restore demand for L1 transactions and, in turn, ETH valuation.

One option is developing high-value use cases that rely on L1’s security and reliability, yet, given current trends, this appears unlikely in the near future. Another possibility is that L2 adoption grows so rapidly that the sheer volume of transactions compensates for the discounted fees — but this would require extraordinary L2 growth, beyond near-term expectations.

The most likely, and perhaps the most controversial, solution is repricing blob space to increase L2 settlement fees. While this would restore some of the L1 supply burn, it risks upsetting the economics of L2s that have been key to Ethereum’s recent success and enhanced its ability to compete as an ecosystem with alternative platforms (like Solana, Binance Chain, etc.).

The uncertain future of ETH

While L2s have scaled Ethereum, they have also disoriented the mechanisms that tie ETH’s value to its utility. For investors, this means that ETH’s future depends on how Ethereum balances innovation with maintaining healthy economic policy.

For now, ETH’s investment case is unsettling, and risks remain high as the Ethereum community decides its path forward.

Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.

Bitcoin, Gold May Be Sensing Monetary Debasement as Records Beckon

With both assets leading the market, here’s a closer look at the factors driving their remarkable performance.

In the past five days, bitcoin (BTC) has surged 7%, breaking through $64,000 for the first time since Aug. 26. Gold, for its part, has reached all-time highs on over 30 occasions this year, topping $2,600 an ounce. These remarkable performances mark the first time since bitcoin’s inception in 2009 that both are the top-performing assets of the year, according to Charlie Bilello, the chief market strategist at Creative Planning, an investment management and financial planning firm.

Year-to-date, gold has risen 27%, surpassing its 2020 performance of 25%. The last time it did better was 2007. What is driving this impressive rise?

Gold has historically been seen as a hedge against monetary debasement and global uncertainty, and current economic conditions suggest it is again fulfilling this role. The recent surge in gold prices can be attributed to these factors. Notably, gold began its rally before the significant monetary debasement triggered by the Covid pandemic in 2020, while bitcoin emerged as a star performer in late 2020 and into 2021. With bitcoin now just 14% away from its all-time high, is it playing catch-up once again?

A closer examination reveals that bitcoin’s price tends to move in line with the Federal Reserve’s net liquidity metric. This measure, calculated by subtracting reverse repo and the Treasury General Account from the Fed’s balance sheet, indicates that bitcoin tends to follow liquidity trends.

Both bitcoin and net liquidity bottomed out toward the end of 2022, coinciding with the FTX collapse. Since then, bitcoin has steadily risen alongside an increase in net liquidity, which now exceeds $6 trillion.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is currently at $7.1 trillion, and although it is still engaging in quantitative tightening, the pace has slowed. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023 led to a $1.6 trillion reduction in the balance sheet, bringing it back to levels seen during the initial phases of quantitative easing in response to the pandemic.

The draining of reverse repo balances, now just over $300 billion, releases liquidity back into the financial system. This is stimulative, increasing the availability of funds for lending, investment, and overall economic activity.

Looking more broadly, the combined balance sheets of the world’s 15 largest central banks – including the U.S., European Union, Japan and China – approach $31 trillion.

While this number alone is not the focus, the trend shows a global resurgence in central bank balance sheets from about $30 trillion in July. This increase in liquidity is particularly stimulative for bitcoin, which tends to mirror liquidity trends.

Adding to this, just Wednesday the Fed cut the interest rate by 50 basis points, further supporting the rise of bitcoin and gold.

Bitcoin Price and Hashrate Divergence May Set the Scene for a Potential Rally, Historical Data Shows

September’s counter-seasonal price trend has already started to show signs of this divergence trend helping BTC.

A divergence between bitcoin (BTC) price and its hashrate or network’s total computing power could potentially point towards a rally in the price of the largest digital asset.

Historically, these divergences have occurred only a few times in the past three years. In some cases, bitcoin prices have reached a local bottom during these events, followed by a rally as the market catches up with the rising hash rate. Bitcoin network’s hashrates rise and fall depending on how many miners have their mining computers online to validate transactions.

Consistent with this pattern, bitcoin has already shown signs of recovery, gaining about $9,000 since the local bottom on Sept. 6, representing a 15% increase in value. This divergence between bitcoin’s (BTC) price and its hash rate started to shape up in July and then persisted into early September, when the computing power of the network reached an all-time high of 693 exahashes per second (EH/s) on a seven-day moving average, while bitcoin’s price was near $54,000.

A significant factor contributing to the recent surge in hash rate is the activity of publicly traded mining companies. Before the halving – where bitcoin rewards get cut in half – the hash rate peaked at 650 EH/s and dropped to 550 EH/s in June, as less efficient miners exited the network due to higher competition. It has now returned to pre-halving levels as publicly traded miners that are well-capitalized, have increased their market share by raising their computing power.

In fact, data from the sixteen public companies show that they have almost reached a 23% market share in production, the highest since at least January 2023, according to the industry journal TheMinerMag. It is likely that publicly traded miners will continue to capture a larger share of the hash rate over time as they compete to stay profitable post-halving.

Counter-seasonal trend

September has historically been dubbed a bearish month for bitcoin, with historical data from Coinglass indicating an average price decline of 4%. However, this year has defied that trend, with bitcoin posting a 7% increase so far. This counter-seasonal trend could be indicating that due to the lower bitcoin price and rising hashrate, the price could be playing catch up with the hash rate, potentially setting up for another rally. Of course, there are other market factors such as interest rate decisions could also catalyze this price change.

Additionally, the next difficulty adjustment, scheduled for Sept. 25 and projected to decrease by 5%, could also indicate that prices may be catching up. Blocks are currently being mined at an average of 10.5 minutes, according to mempool.space. This indicates a potential slowdown in the hash rate as price plays catch up.

Miners accumulating

Another factor that could signal a potential rise in price is what miners are doing with their mined bitcoin.

Glassnode data indicates that from November 2023 to August 2024, miners consistently sold bitcoin to fund their operations due to the halving, marking one of the longest periods of sell pressure on record.

However, in the past 30 days, miners began accumulating bitcoin in their wallets, suggesting that the financial strain from the halving is largely over. If miners are distributing less bitcoin, this reduces the supply entering the market, increasing the chance of potentially helping the price.

Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve

Both former President Donald Trump and Sen. Cynthia Lummis proposed the U.S. hold its bitcoin.

Over the weekend, former U.S. President and current Republican nominee Donald Trump and a number of lawmakers spoke at the Bitcoin Nashville conference. The biggest piece of news everyone has been talking about was Trump and Sen. Cynthia Lummis’ proposals to create a strategic reserve for Bitcoin, but the event also served as Sen. Tim Scott’s entry into actual crypto discussion.

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BTC conference

The narrative

Lawmakers – and Donald Trump, who of course is hoping to regain the presidency this November – took the stage through the Bitcoin Nashville conference last week to try and appeal to BTC holders for votes or funds.

Why it matters

This is the first major U.S. election where crypto is getting attention from lawmakers and candidates. While it’s still not totally clear whether there truly is a significant mass of single-issue crypto voters, what is clear is lawmakers are going to continue to appeal to this crowd over the next few months.

Breaking it down

First up: Former President Donald Trump spoke, saying if he’s elected he’ll work to appoint friendlier regulators, but his biggest promise may be his suggestion that the U.S. would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile, a promise echoed by Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) who introduced a bill this week that would support that goal.

“And so as the final part of my plan today, I am announcing that if I am elected, it will be the policy of my administration, United States of America, to keep 100% of all the bitcoin the U.S. government currently holds or acquires into the future, we’ll keep 100%,” Trump said. “I hope you do well, please. This will serve, in effect, as the core of the strategic national bitcoin stockpile.”

The former president also acknowledged that “most of the bitcoin currently held by the United States government was obtained through law enforcement action.”

“You know that they took it from you. Let’s take that guy’s life. Let’s take his family, his house, his bitcoin. We’ll turn it into bitcoin. It’s been taken away from you, because that’s where we’re going now. That’s where this country is going to – fascist regime. And so as I take steps to transform that vast wealth into a permanent national asset to benefit all Americans,” he said.

The proposals – both from Trump and Lummis – still leave some questions unanswered at the moment, but in a broader sense, they’re more just messages to the bitcoin community at the moment, that if Trump becomes president again (and/or if Republicans become the majority party in the Senate), he’ll be friendlier toward the industry than in his first term.

Trump also shouted out Vivek Ramaswamy, who briefly also vied for the Republican ticket.

“I’ve heard from Vivek 175 million people in some form, are involved with this world of crypto and Bitcoin and all of the others, 175 million,” he said. “So when they heard that, they said, ‘Let’s be nice to them, at least until after the election.'”

You can read a partial transcript of Trump’s remarks here.

As my colleague Jesse Hamilton reported, this event also served as Sen. Tim Scott’s (R-S.C.) first substantial introduction to the crypto community. The Senate Banking Committee’s top Republican, Scott – another former contender for the presidency – will become the committee’s chair if the GOP retakes the Senate, putting him in charge of legislation that could affect the Securities and Exchange Commission and crypto regulation more broadly. He did not introduce any specific policy ideas during his remarks on stage.

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If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at nik@coindesk.com or find me on Twitter @nikhileshde.

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See ya’ll next week!

Macro State of Crypto – Where It Has Been and What’s Next

Analytics can offer insight into how recent and past crypto and regulatory events have affected prices and movement. Plus: A quick Q&A on retirement funds.

Geçen hafta ABD’li bir Yargıç, XRP’nin menkul kıymet olmadığına karar verdi ve SEC, BlackRock bitcoin ETF başvurusunu kabul ederek onay sürecinin bir sonraki aşamasına geçti. Bu XRP haberinden birkaç dakika sonra, token 0,45 dolardan 0,61 dolara sıçradı ve fiyatı %25’in üzerine çıkardı. Bu kararlar ve daha pek çok karar, daha da fazla düzenleyici soruya yol açsa da, kural değişikliklerinin dijital varlık oynaklığında önemli bir faktör olduğu açıktır.

Dijital varlıklar konusunda bir danışman olarak, mevcut düzenleyici olayların ve son başarısızlıkların bitcoin, ether ve altcoinler için fiyatlandırmayı ve ticaret hacmini nasıl etkilediğini düşünmelisiniz.

Aşağıda, Amberdata’dan Greg Magadini, bizi kripto ve düzenleyici olaylara götürüyor ve bu olayların fiyatları ve hareketi nasıl etkilediğine dair bazı analizler sağlıyor.

Also, can we include crypto in retirement funds? Thanks to Bryan Courchese from Daim for answering this week’s questions on the topic.

– S.M.

You’re reading Crypto for Advisors, CoinDesk’s weekly newsletter that unpacks digital assets for financial advisors. Subscribe here to get it every Thursday.

Macro state of crypto – where it has been and what’s next

In 2022, Terra Luna’s collapse, the crypto hedge fund 3AC’s bankruptcy, FTX’s scandal and other meltdowns pushed the industry into a bear market. These headlines drove the entire sector lower, often led by altcoins.

However, the first half of 2023 flipped a lot of these crypto relationships on their head as macro economic events splashed news headlines.

Bitcoin led crypto higher in January as the Fed’s hawkish narrative began to soften. This move was accompanied by a positive “spot/vol” regime, with traders buying options as Bitcoin rallied – a relationship not witnessed in 2022 when only price crashes seemed to drive volatility higher.

The takeaway was that bitcoin was trading on fundamental macro news, as opposed to crypto specific events.

If Ethereum is a crypto “technology bet,” bitcoin is a monetary alternative “pure-play.”

YTD performance of BTC (orange) and ETH (blue)

This narrative juxtaposition became obvious in March as the SVB banking crisis took hold.

Comparing the YTD performance of BTC and ETH spot prices, we can clearly see that BTC began an outperformance of ETH in reaction to the banking crisis and the Fed’s emergency response.

BTC has been able to hold onto this outperformance ever since.

YTD Ratio of implied volatility (ETH DVol divided by BTC DVol)

To see further evidence of a shift in these trading dynamics (a move towards macro events and a shift away from crypto specific news) we can observe the forward-looking option market activity.

The ratio of Deribit’s DVOL indexes, a comprehensive 30-day to maturity measure of option implied volatility (think the VIX of BTC and the VIX of ETH), shows us that the typical implied volatility premium of ETH over BTC began to dissipate in reaction to macro news events.

In mid-January we saw a market adjustment from the Fed beginning to slow down its hawkishness. This sent BTC higher and BTC IV (implied volatility) relatively higher (chart goes down).

Then in early February we saw a major outperformance linked to the Labor Department’s monthly non-farm payrolls (NFP) number. This quickly killed the idea of a Fed hawkish slowdown; BTC dropped (along with gold and other interest-rate sensitive assets) and BTC IV went down, relative to ETH IV (chart goes up).

The SVB crisis again nudged BTC IV higher, only to be temporarily paused by the ETH Shanghai upgrade.

Today, ETH IV trades around parity to BTC IV, even briefly at a discount.

Where does this leave us for the second half of 2023?

The Fed remains in a “wait-and-see” mode, after recently doing a “rate skip” at their June FOMC meeting. Although other central banks continue to raise rates, the U.S. macro picture is moving into the background as crypto specific news events become “top-of-mind.”

The regulatory events surrounding Binance, Coinbase and XRP are becoming major drivers of activity.

Today, BTC is defined as a commodity, while ETH’s categorization is more ambiguous.

This means there’s increased sensitivity for ETH’s “technology bet” narrative around regulation. A lot of ETH’s value comes from its utilization and the various DeFi, NFT and ERC-20 protocols built on top of the Ethereum infrastructure.

Lately, volatility surrounding the consumer price index (CPI), NFP and other macro events seems to have settled down, while regulatory clarity around crypto, a potential spot ETF approval and the XRP resolution is becoming a key focus; this paradigm shift could lead the market towards higher beta “altcoins” in the crypto space.

Historically, altcoins have outperformed BTC in bull markets, and the second half of 2023 is off to a bullish start, so far accompanied by mostly favorable crypto-specific news headlines.

That the recent events have increased ETH IV relative to BTC IV offers a hint that option traders are also paying attention.

– Greg Magadini, CFA Amberdata

Ask an Advisor

I help clients include crypto in their retirement accounts.

– Bryan Courchesne, CEO Daim

Q: Can advisors invest in crypto in 401K (retirement) accounts for their clients?

A: The short answer is yes, you can invest crypto in a range of retirement accounts from 401K plans to individual retirement accounts. First, make sure that you are speaking to a licensed investment advisor. Investment management is highly regulated so your Bitcoin advisor should be properly licensed. Ask for the advisor and their firm’s CRD #. You can look it up on brokercheck.org to vet that they are legit.

Q: Can my clients hold crypto in these accounts, or just funds?

A: Short answer both. The accounts could hold pure crypto, a crypto futures fund, a trust product (Like GBTC), or equities like COIN stock (which the company holds pure Bitcoin on their balance sheet.) In any investment besides pure crypto the main things to consider are tracking differences from the underlying and different fee structures.

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Muhaliflerin şimdi bitcoin’in 474 kez ölü olduğunu ilan ettiğine inanabiliyor musunuz?

Merhaba arkadaşlar, bugün sizlere Prizmabet adlı bir bahis kitabından bahsedeceğim. Prizmabet, Betconstruct donanımları ile üyelerine kaliteli hizmetler veren ve uygulamanın önde gelen bahis sitelerinden bir tanesidir. 2009 yılında kurulan Prizmabet, lisanslı, güvenilir ve güvenilir bir site olarak dikkat çekmektedir. Prizmabet’te spor bahisleri, canlı bahisler, casino, canlı casino, slot oyunları, sanal sporlar ve daha pek çok seçeneği bulabilirsiniz. Prizmabet’te oyun oynamak için aranan ortam fazlasıyla bulunur.

Prizmabet’in en önemli özelliklerinden biri de Prizmabet TV kanalıdır. Bu kanal sayesinde bahis sitesinde bulunan müsabakaları üyeler bir ücrete katlanmadan zaman takip edebiliyor. Böylece hem heyecanlı hem de kazançlı bir bahis deneyimi yaşıyorsunuz. Prizmabet TV kanalında futbol, basketbol, tenis, voleybol gibi popüler spor dallarının yanı sıra daha az bilinen sporlara da yer verilmektedir. Prizmabet TV kanalını kullanmak için sadece siteye üye olmanız ve yatırım yapmanız yeterlidir.

Prizmabet ayrıca üyelerine bol miktarda bonus ve promosyon da sunmaktadır. Prizmabet’te ilk üyelik bonusu olarak 100 TL deneme bonusu alabilirsiniz. Bunun yanında yatırım bonusları, kayıp bonusları, arkadaş davet bonusu, doğum günü bonusu gibi farklı bonuslar da mevcuttur. Prizmabet bonusları sayesinde daha fazla oyun oynayabilir ve getirmenizi artırabilirsiniz. Prizmabet bonuslarının çevrim şartları da oldukça makul bir seviyededir.

Prizmabet para yatırma ve çekme işlemleri konusunda da araçlara kolaylık sağlar. Prizmabet’te banka havalesi, kredi kartı, papara, cepbank, QR kodu, bitcoin gibi farklı durumlarda para yatırabilir ve çekebilirsiniz. Para yatırma ve çekme işlemleri 7/24 yapılabilmekte ve kısa sürede hesaplara yansımaktadır. Prizmabet para yatırma ve çekme aksamı herhangi bir komisyon veya kesinti de yapmamaktadır.

Prizmabet müşteri hizmetleri de müşterilerine 7/24 canlı hizmet vermektedir. Prizmabet canlı destek ekibi sayesinde site ile ilgili her türlü soru, sorun veya önerilerinizi iletebilir ve anında çözüm bulabilirsiniz. Prizmabet canlı destek ekibi profesyonel, güler yüzlü ve yaklaşımıdır.

Sonuç olarak, Prizmabet performansının en iyi bahis sitelerinden biri olarak gösterilebilir. Prizmabet’te hem eğlenceli hem de kazançlı bir bahis deneyimi yaşıyorsunuz. Prizmabet’e üye olmak için güncel giriş adresi web sayfalarında bulabilirsiniz. Prizmabet’e girmek için tıklayınız! Prizmabet’e katıldığınıza pişman olmayacaksınız!

Bitcoin, Ether Headed Toward Losing Months in Usually Upbeat July

BTC could suffer its second monthly downturn of 2023, while ether seems headed for its first losing month.

Bitcoin continued a month-long stagnancy, logging a fourth consecutive week of less than 2% in price movement. Directionally, the largest asset by market capitalization closed the week down 1.3%, after rising 0.3% the week prior. With 10 days remaining in July, Bitcoin is poised to log its second losing month of 2023.

Ether followed a similar trajectory though its trading range has been wider with this week’s 1.63% decline following f a 3.24% increase last week. Ether has yet to log a losing month this year, but will need to surpass $1,934 over the next 10 days to maintain its winning streak. ETH was recently changing hands at $1,897, up 0.2%. July has been a historically positive month for digital assets.

BTC and ETH’s seven-day performance ranked them 26th and 29th in a list of cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization of $1 billion or more.

The weekly leader was peer-to-peer lending platform Maker (MKR), which rose more than 30% over the most recent seven days, and is up more than 120% year-to-date. XLM performed strongly as well, increasing more than 20% over the identical period. The currency which tends to correlate tightly with XRP is up 117% year to date.

They also stood out among the CoinDesk Market Indices (CMI) weekly rankings within their respective sectors.

XLM ranked first in the CMI currency sector, while MKR led in the DeFi sector.

Overall Currency and DeFi sector performance within the CMI universe was muted this week, with DeFi finishing up 1.3% and the currency sector falling 0.5%. The computing sector led all sectors this week, increasing 6.4%.

The leading component within the computing sector was Chainlink (LINK), an oracle network which serves as a bridge between on-chain and off-chain environments. The asset, up 45% year-to-date, rose close to 20% this week.

The CMI weekly laggard was the Smart Contract Platform sector, which was held down by EthereumPoW (ETHW), and MultiversX’s (EGLD) underperformance.

What’s on tap for next week

Investors next week will be eyeing Wednesday’s Fed Interest Rate decision.

The CME Fedwatch tool is currently assigning a 99.8% probability that the central bank will boost rates 25 basis points (bps). .

Markets will also likely be scrutinizing Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chair Jerome Powell’s comments following the rate decision. Given recent macroeconomic data, Powell is likely to echo his comments from the past month that while inflation has declined, it remains unacceptably high and that the Fed will have to renew its prescription of monetary tightening.