Prizmabet

IP-Backed Meme Token CAT Bags Binance Spot Listing, Spiking Bullish Sentiment

Open interest in the token’s future products nearly doubled to over $60 million, showing a bump in expectations of further volatility with a bullish bias.

IP-backed memecoin Simon’s Cat (CAT) surged 50% Monday after becoming the first cat-themed token to get a coveted Binance spot listing — amid some meme tokens taking the plagiarism heat.

CAT zoomed from $0.000039 to a record peak of $0.000067 in early Asian hours Tuesday, data shows, before paring gains. Trading volumes rose tenfold from $55 million to over $500 million.

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Open interest in the token’s future products nearly doubled to over $60 million, showing a bump in expectations of further volatility with a bullish bias.

Binance said Monday it would offer airdrops of CAT to users of their Earn products who staked specific amounts of BNB tokens last week. It would then list 1000CAT (where a single token holds a thousand CAT) at 09:00 UTC later on Tuesday.

CAT is the official token of Simon’s Cat, an animated series about a hungry house cat and its adventures, with over 20 million followers across YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.

Comparisons with other cat-themed memecoins like Popcat, MOG, and MEW often place CAT at a perceived undervaluation due to its spot listings and IP backing, among other reasons. Data shows it is the fourth-largest by market cap in that category, one that’s led by MOG at $1.1 billion as of Tuesday.

Well-followed trader @theunipcs — who famously turned $16,000 to $18 million on a BONK trade — is among the most vocal supporters of CAT and expects it to become the largest cat-themed meme token in the coming months.

“A $CAT flippening of $POPCAT to become the top cat memecoin is highly likely,” the trader said in a Monday post. “(It has) the best mainstream recognition for a cat memecoin brand, the best unit bias among major cat memecoins, strong and official IP, 99% of CT is sidelined, so a hated rally is likely”

one voice has consistently told you for months that a $CAT flippening of $POPCAT to become the top cat memecoin is highly likely

and that voice has consistently been shut down by people who would rather marry their bags than make money

but you don't have to listen to me anymore… https://t.co/CxCaTNTuMQ pic.twitter.com/aBYI95WUsh

— Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒 (@theunipcs) December 16, 2024

Are IP memecoins the future?

CAT’s spot listing comes as non-IP memecoins increasingly see legal heat.

IP, or intellectual property, can include characters from memes, video games, or any cultural phenomenon that have officially been trademarked or copyrighted before their tokens were offered to the public.

Tokens backed by IP have a clearer legal standing regarding usage rights. The creators or owners of the IP can legally license the use of their characters or concepts, reducing the risk of legal challenges like cease and desist orders or lawsuits for unauthorized use of copyrighted material, which can abruptly devalue non-IP-backed tokens.

Tokens are starting to face the risk of legal action from IP holders if they do not own or securing rights to the IP they emulate or represent. Non-IP tokens like chillguy (CHILLGUY) and pnut (PNUT) face challenges despite being popular and widely traded.

On Monday, Mark Longo, the owner of Peanut the Squirrel which inspired the PNUT token, issued a cease-and-desist letter to Binance, accusing it of trademark infringement for listing and offering the PNUT memecoin.

Longo claimed Binance used his “Peanut the Squirrel” trademark and mascot likeness without permission, noting he has been using the PNUT brand for educational and animal welfare initiatives since 2017.

The cease-and-desist warning of potential legal action and sought penalties of up to $150,000 per infringement. PNUT’s prices are down 5% in the past 24 hours, in line with a broader market lull.

As such, CAT is officially licensed to the mainstream Simon’s Cat brand and is the first major cat memecoin on the BNB Chain, backed by the company’s IP which earned $5.8 billion in revenue last year.

That drives the token’s investment thesis for traders such as @theunipcs.

“The reality is that T1 CEXs (Binance/Coinbase/Upbit/etc) and major entitites will not touch memecoins with IP issues with a ten-foot pole,” he noted in a November post. “Because while the memecoin is likely decentralized and launched by an anon, these CEXs are real entities that could be held liable for IP violations and it’s just not worth the drama for them.”

“Official Simon’s Cat channels have promoted and will continue to promote the $CAT memecoin. This is an advantage no other cat memecoin in the space has right now,” he added at the time.

In the world of memecoins, CAT’s IP could prove to be its nine lives.

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Bitcoin Traders No Longer Chasing Record Price Rally Like Before, Options Data Show

The way options are currently priced indicates a more measured bullish sentiment compared to what we’ve witnessed recently.

While bitcoin (BTC) continues to reach new lifetime highs, the latest options market trend indicates that traders aren’t chasing the uptrend with the same zeal as before.

On Monday, BTC’s price rose above $107,000, surpassing the previous peak on Dec. 5 and taking the cumulative post-U.S.-election gain to over 50%, CoinDesk data show.

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The rally follows President-elect Donald Trump’s assurance that the U.S. will build a bitcoin strategic reserve similar to its strategic oil reserve. Analysts expect the winning streak to continue next year, with prices ranging between $150K to $200K by the end of the following year.

However, the current pricing of options trading on Deribit indicates that traders aren’t chasing the rally like they used to, signaling a more cautious outlook for the short term.

At press time, the 25-delta risk reversal for options expiring on Friday was negative, indicating the relative richness of put options that provide protection against price drops. Puts expiring on Dec. 27 were trading at a slight premium to calls, while the risk reversals extending to the end of March end expiry demonstrated a call bias of less than three volatility points.

That starkly contrasts the trend we’ve observed over the past few weeks, where traders aggressively chased new price peaks, driving short-term and long-term call biases to over four or five volatility points. In fact, short-term risk reversals frequently displayed a stronger call bias than their longer-term counterparts.

The latest block trades coming through on Deribit, as tracked by Amberdata, also show a bearish lean. The top trade so far today has been a short position in the Dec. 27 expiry call at the $108,000 strike followed by long positions in the $100,000 strike puts expiring on Dec. 27 and Jan. 3.

The cautious sentiment could be due to concerns that on Wednesday the Federal Reserve will signal fewer or slower rate hikes for 2025 while delivering the widely expected 25 basis points rate cut. Such an outcome could accelerate hardening of the bond yields, strengthening the dollar and denting the case for investing in riskier assets. Perhaps, sophisticated BTC traders are positioning for a correction.

U.S. Listed Spot Bitcoin ETFs on the Verge of Surpassing Gold ETFs

U.S. spot-listed bitcoin ETFs currently have an AUM of $120 billion compared to gold’s $125 billion.

The year 2024 has marked a significant breakthrough for digital assets, particularly for bitcoin (BTC), driven by increased institutional adoption. This shift has occurred through two key avenues: first, the integration of bitcoin into public balance sheets as a treasury asset, and second, the success of U.S. spot-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have amassed over 1 million BTC.

A report from K33 Research reveals that U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs have surpassed U.S.-listed Gold ETFs in terms of assets under management (AUM), including leveraged products such as futures-based ETFs. As of Dec. 17, Bitcoin ETFs reached assets under management (AUM) worth $129.25 billion, edging out Gold ETF AUM at $128.88 billion, according to Vetle Lunde, analyst at K33 Research.

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However, when comparing spot-based products exclusively, Gold remains slightly ahead. According to Senior Bloomberg ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas, U.S. bitcoin spot ETFs hold $120 billion in AUM compared to $125 billion for Gold ETFs.

CME activity remains strong

The CME exchange, primarily used by institutions, continues to have strong activity, with futures open interest approaching new highs, with 212,635 BTC in open interest contracts.

According to the report, the basis trade premium has continued to rise, reaching 16.4% — the highest level since November 2023. This indicates that CME traders anticipate increased momentum as the year comes to a close.

The report notes, “January contracts are trading at sharp premiums relative to December contracts, with the contango widening to 1.5% on Monday — the highest next-month premium recorded since November 2023. The December contract on CME remains the most valuable, with open interest equivalent to 113,480 BTC. The upcoming December roll is expected to be significant, as several upcoming banking holidays may contribute to a further widening of the January premium.”

The momentum has continued for the past month, as the U.S. spot-listed bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows every day since Nov. 27, totaling $6.5 billion, according to Farside data. It is important to note that as the basis trade premium continues to widen and with a growing amount of open interest contracts on the CME, a large portion of these net inflows are part of the cash and carry trade.

Disclaimer: This article, or parts of it, was generated with assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

As BitMEX Turns 10, the Market Is Still Thankful for the Perpetual Swap

BitMEX’s CEO says he’s OK with everyone copying the exchange’s most important invention.

“Good artists copy, great artists steal,” was a favorite saying of Apple’s Steve Jobs to explain his company’s blatant copying of technology from Xerox.

Fast forward to the Web3 era, and BitMEX CEO Stephan Lutz, who was appointed to the role in late 2022, says he’s fine with competitors copying the crypto exchange’s invention of the perpetual swap, the financial instrument that underpins the crypto derivatives market. The more traders access the tool, the healthier the market, the logic goes.

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“It was copied by everyone, because that’s just open-source know-how,” Lutz said in an interview with CoinDesk. The whole world works on it, which is like the best form of flattery we can wish for in the end.”

Unlike futures — which are contracts to buy or sell an asset at a specific price on a specific date — the perpetual swap eliminates expiration and mirrors the feel of margin trading. Perpetuals act as a rolling series of short-term futures contracts using a funding rate, or payment exchanged between long and short positions, to maintain price alignment with the underlying asset.

Lutz argues that the perpetual swap was a cornerstone innovation in crypto trading because it addressed a fundamental challenge in building derivatives in the early crypto market structure.

“You faced counterparty credit risk, and there was no real structure for bringing longs and shorts together,” he said. “The perpetual swap with the funding mechanism and the insurance fund in the background sparked the whole [futures] trading industry.”

It also allows traders to react with the hyperdrive speed required in crypto.

“If you say it’s a seven-year cycle [some investors believe the market functions in this pattern] in TradFi, this cycle is six months in crypto,” Lutz, a veteran of Deutsche Börse, which operates the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, said. “You need to react to new developments very quickly.”

While BitMEX is nowhere near the largest derivatives exchange by volume anymore – that’s what happens when larger centralized exchanges, like Binance, adopt the perp and get into the derivatives business – it still has a loyal cadre of traders.

One reason for that is because BitMEX does not have its own market-making desk. It doesn’t trade against its own customers, Lutz said.

“Our funding rates can sometimes differ because we ensure completely independent price discovery, which is important for maintaining fairness,” he said. “It’s a matter of neutrality.”

During periods of high volatility, particularly market downturns, BitMEX often sees its market share spike — sometimes double — Lutz explains because of the exchange’s loyal cadre of derivatives traders.

Another 10 years

Sometimes it’s tough to imagine where a crypto company will be in 10 years, given the speed at which the industry operates.

Compare the liquidation and winding up of Lehman Brothers, to the relatively rapid resolution of FTX’s bankruptcy.

As for BitMEX, Lutz foresees the exchange maintaining its niche in bitcoin-based derivatives while selectively expanding its offerings.

And maybe sometime during this next decade, BitMEX will invent something new — and be flattered when the entire industry copies it.

Dogecoin Bets Spike to $1.3B as Trump Popularity Sees DOGE Rocket 15%

Stablecoin margined futures on DOGE have spiked, with DOGE denominated bets rising 33% since Sunday.

Futures interest in dogecoin (DOGE) is swiftly rising and nearing record levels from April, thanks to renewed trading interest in the token on the possibility of its abbreviation becoming a part of Republican Donald Trump’s administration.

DOGE prices are up 15% in the past 24 hours, CoinGecko shows, after an Elon Musk appearance at a Trump rally and a later X post of himself with the DOGE avatar. Traders are terming the price spike as a play on “Trump’s popularity,” as reported.

DOGE-denominated futures have risen 33% since Sunday to 8 billion tokens as of European morning hours Tuesday. That’s just 12% away from a lifetime record of 9 billion DOGE in open interest.

In stablecoin terms, the DOGE bets have spiked from $850 million to $1.3 billion, CoinGlass data shows.

OI refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as futures or options, that have not been settled. High open interest indicates that there is significant interest in a particular asset. When open interest increases along with rising prices, it suggests new money is coming into the market, indicating a strengthening trend – such as Tuesday’s.

Higher open interest in token can lead to increased volatility, especially as contracts near expiration. Traders might rush to close, roll over, or adjust positions, which can lead to significant price movements.

Musk has gotten closer to Trump in the past few months with increased donations and endorsements. On various talk shows, he has talked about creating a “Department of Government Efficiency,” abbreviated as D.O.G.E, in a quest to make government spending more efficient.

Trump has said he would enlist Musk to run a “government efficiency commission” if he wins a second term as U.S. president, per BBC.

Some traders have jumped on that narrative as a bullish catalyst in the near term.

“Elon is memeing the idea of a ‘Department of Government Efficiency’ into reality and is able to tie it to DOGE somehow,” influential X account @theunipcs told CoinDesk in a message. “If we get a Trump win after the U.S. elections next week, i expect an even more parabolic move in dogecoin and the ‘Department of Government Efficiency’ ETH memecoin because it becomes a certainty that the department will be set up.”

“There will likely a multi-month delay between Trump winning and his inauguration as well as such a department being actually set up, and that provides a solid trade opportunity,” @theunipcs added. The trader was among the first individuals to publicly state the D.O.G.E trade thesis.

DOGE prices are up more than 30% since CoinDesk first reported on the D.O.G.E trade gaining interest among traders.

BlackRock Highlights Bitcoin’s Unique Properties, Believes BTC is Risk-Off in the Long Term

BlackRock’s latest report shows that bitcoin has a very low correlation to U.S. equities on a trailing six-month basis.

BlackRock released a report last week, titled “bitcoin as a unique diversifier.”

The investment giant identified four key points from the report. First, how to analyze bitcoin (BTC) in relation to traditional financial assets due to its fundamental properties, such as not having a quarterly earnings report or a CEO.

Second, bitcoin’s high volatility can be perceived as a “risky” asset, which contributes to the discussion that whether it is a “risk-on” or “risk-off” asset. The token could be considered a flight-to-safety option because it is scarce, non-sovereign, and decentralized. Lastly, BlackRock pointed out that the long-term adoption of bitcoin may come from global instability.

Bitcoin’s realized volatility trends downwards

Bitcoin’s realized volatility continues to trend downwards over time, indicating increased stability. In the early years of bitcoin, its realized volatility used to trade over 200%; however, as the asset matured, so did the volatility.

Since 2018, realized volatility has not exceeded 100% and is currently at 50%. As realized volatility decreases and liquidity increases through financial instruments such as the spot and futures market, this may bring in more sophisticated investors such as options traders. This seems to be on the horizon with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of physically settled options tied to BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF.

Risk-on or risk-off?

BlackRock also asked the question: Is bitcoin risk-on or risk-off? While short-term trading may suggest that bitcoin behaves like a risk-on asset, the data reveals a different narrative over a longer time horizon.

According to data from bitcoin custody service Unchained, “almost all holders (99%+) are in profit if they held for just three years. All bitcoin holders in this class are in profit if they held for at least 5 years”.

We can see this type of mentality on-chain among investors, where over 65% of the circulating bitcoin supply has remained unmoved for more than one year, according to Glassnode. This trend suggests that many investors tend to hold bitcoin because they believe in its store-of-value narrative and view it as a risk-off asset, even though bitcoin has faced multiple 20% corrections in 2024.

Low historical correlation with U.S equities

BlackRock also showed that bitcoin has a very low correlation to U.S. equities. A graph shows the trailing 6-month S&P 500 correlation with bitcoin; the average correlation is 0.2 since 2015. Sometimes, assets will trade near one-to-one with one another due to external macro factors, most likely in risk-off or liquidity events.

The report notes, “These episodes have been short-term in nature and have failed to produce a clear long-term statistically significant correlation relationship.”

Bitcoin outperforms other risk-on assets after major events

Continuing with the theme of having a long-term time preference, BlackRock noted that bitcoin tends to outperform other risk-on assets after 60 days following a major geopolitical event.

The U.S.- Iran escalation in 2020 saw bitcoin return 20% after 60 days, outperforming gold and S&P 500. This was also the case for Covid-19, the 2020 U.S. election challenges, the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. regional banking crisis, and most recently, the Yen Carry trade unwind on Aug. 5.

During the recent Yen carry trade unwind on Aug. 5, which was now 53 days ago, major assets experienced declines on the day. However, bitcoin has risen by 22% since then, with gold and the S&P 500 up roughly 11%.

First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Nears $66K After Monster ETF Day

The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Sept. 27, 2024.

This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.

Latest Prices

CoinDesk 20 Index: 2,090.20 +1.76%
Bitcoin (BTC): $65,567.06 +1.8%
Ether (ETH): $2,649.73 +0.83%
S&P 500: 5,745.37 +0.4%
Gold: $2,666.73 -0.22%
Nikkei 225: 39,829.56 +2.32%

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Bitcoin closed in on a return to $66,000, climbing to its highest point since the start of August. BTC rose to over $65,900 during mid-morning in Europe, an increase of over 3% in the previous 24 hours. Bitcoin then retreated to trade just above $65,500. Spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. enjoyed a monster day on Thursday, registering inflows of $365 million and bringing the weekly total to over $600 million. The broader digital asset market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index, is also higher by around 1.8%, with dogecoin leading the gains. DOGE jumped around 9% to nearly $0.125 amid a surge in memecoin prices.

China’s plans for a huge stimulus package lit a fire under memecoins, with both SHIB and FLOKI registering double-digit gains. Memecoin prices tend to respond positively to liquidity injections because the increased availability of cash nurtures a greater appetite for risk among traders. Memecoins are community-driven and jump when the market displays risk-on behavior. “Leading the gains are the SOL and BTC ecosystems, indicating a strong focus on meme coins as overall liquidity grows. While not nearly as explosive as meme coins on the aforementioned chains, meme coins on Ethereum, such as $PEPE and $SHIB, are also experiencing heightened interest from the market,” HashKey OTC CEO Li Liang said.

TIA, the token of data-availability network Celestia, posted its best monthly gain this year, confounding traders who’d positioned for a drop in the price as the result of a $1.13 billion token unlock due next month. September’s market-beating 40% surge takes place against a background of some market participants seeking downside hedges due to concerns the token unlock due Oct. 31, equivalent to 16% of its total supply, will flood the market and depress prices. However, the bias for shorts, likely stemming from the hedging activity, might have led to a short squeeze, contributing to the TIA rally. “Traders tried to sell ahead of the [unlock] event from Julyish. I’d argue the squeeze has already happened,” Jake Ostovskis, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, told CoinDesk.

Chart of the Day

– Omkar Godbole