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First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Trades Flat While Other Major Cryptos Nurse Losses

The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Oct. 3, 2024.

This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.

Latest Prices

CoinDesk 20 Index: 1,868.26 -3.74% Bitcoin (BTC): $60,722.20 -0.88% Ether (ETH): $2,366.16 -3.13% S&P 500: 5,709.54 -0.01% Gold: $2,647.23 -0.49% Nikkei 225: 38,552.06 +1.97%

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Bitcoin was flat during the Asian and European mornings, trading about 0.8% lower in the last 24 hours at around $60,750. Iran’s air strikes on Israel, for which the latter has vowed to retaliate, continue to weigh on risk assets, such as bitcoin. Other major cryptos are nursing more significant losses than BTC with ether down over 4.5% at $2,350. The broader digital asset market as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index is around 4.2% lower. XRP is the worst affected, having dropped 11% after the SEC filed an appeal against the ruling in Ripple’s favor over their long-standing legal dispute.

Despite the generally negative direction in crypto prices, whales are continuing to accumulate bitcoin at unprecedented rates, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young-Ju said in an X post. Whales colloquially refer to influential entities that hold largest amounts of any asset – and on-chain data shows new bitcoin whales are making sizable purchases in anticipation of a bull run ahead. “Real whales move the market through spot trading and OTC markets,” he wrote. “That’s why on-chain data is crucial. The older whales haven’t seen particularly high returns, and the whales who entered in this recent bull run have barely made any profits.”

Tokyo-listed bitcoin holder Metaplanet Inc. is now using bitcoin options to boost its BTC stash. The company announced the sale of 223 contracts of bitcoin put options at the $62,000 strike with a maturity date of Dec. 27. The transaction involved Singapore-based QCP Capital as the counterparty and generated a premium of 23.972 BTC ($1.44 million). Metaplanet posted $13.826 million as margin collateral, with each contract offering a 0.1075 BTC premium, which Metaplanet received upfront. The transaction resulted in a nominal yield of 10.75% and an annualized yield of 45.63%. Metaplanet will use the premium received to purchase more bitcoin. The company’s total bitcoin holdings are worth around $32 million.

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FOMC Minutes Show Uncertainty, Cautious Optimism. Large Bitcoin Investors Are Taking Divergent Paths

The largest and smallest bitcoin whales have added to their holdings, but the group in between has jettisoned some of their tokens.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes released Wednesday from the June meeting suggest that central bankers are uncertain about the economy’s fate in the months ahead.

How their thinking figures in rate hike decisions could profoundly affect crypto markets. Meanwhile the number of bitcoin “whales” has increased, although their distribution has shifted.

June FOMC caution

FOMC minutes show Fed officials cautiously forecasting the possibility of economic recession within the next six months, “followed by a moderately paced recovery”

They also voiced expectations that such a recession would be “neither deep, nor prolonged.”

Still, they appear to be walking a tightrope, with the recent decision to pause rate hikes coming across as a first-do-no-harm approach to monetary policy. The U.S. economy has been more resilient than the FOMC expected. Conflicting economic data has created uncertainty.

For example, at 8:15 a.m. (ET), ADP employment data showed that private business created more than 497,000 jobs in June, the most since February 2022, and well above expectations of 228,000. A mere hour and 45 minutes later, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed an unexpectedly large contraction of job openings during the same period.

Whales differing paths

While the larger investing community wrestles with macroeconomic data, some bitcoin whales have grown in size, even while displaying some of the same uncertainty as the FOMC.

Bitcoin whales are investors holding more than 1,000 BTC. Since June 14, a day before asset management giant BlackRock’s filing for a spot bitcoin ETF, the number of BTC whales has increased 1.6%, reversing a short-term downtrend that began on May 20.

The distribution of supply among whales implies differing levels of confidence.

Investors holding 1,000-10,000 BTC have risen 90,396 BTC (2% higher), since June 14. A similar gain occurred among investors holding more than 100,000 BTC. Their supply grew by 3% (107,883 BTC).

But since June 14, the supply of BTC for investors holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC has fallen 10% (184,153 BTC). This group views risk differently and has less confidence in bitcoin than the other two whale cohorts.

As the macroeconomic environment comes into focus, investors should monitor which cohort made the more profitable decision.