Prizmabet

Key Indicators Challenge Fed’s ‘Normalization’ Rate Cut That Torched Bitcoin Rally

The post-Fed risk-on rally supports the normalization narrative, but some indicators disagree, suggesting caution to bulls.

Since the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 50 basis points a week ago, the debate has been raging on whether the so-called easing represents the normalization of an overly tight monetary policy aimed at taming inflation or preparation for an impending economic swoon.

Risk assets, including pure fiat liquidity plays like bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins, have rallied since the Fed decision, a sign that markets perceive the rate cut as a normalization move. Some analysts foresee accelerated gains once bitcoin surpasses the $65,200 resistance.

However, at least three indicators point to an economic malaise ahead, suggesting caution on the part of the bulls. Perhaps, the Fed delivered an outsized rate cut, taking note of these forward-looking indicators.

Rising joblessness

The U.S. Household Survey, which tracks the unemployment rate across 50 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico, showed that as of August, more than 57% of states experienced an increase in joblessness compared to the preceding month and the same period last year, according to data tracked by MacroMicro.

The fact that most states are witnessing an uptick in the unemployment rate means the risk of reduced income, consumer spending and investment, and a decline in business and consumer confidence in the months ahead, potentially leading to a marked economic slowdown, if not an outright recession (consecutive quarters of economic contraction). A slowdown could see investors scale back exposure to riskier investments.

“According to August’s analysis, 57.7% of U.S. states reported higher unemployment rates than the previous month and year. This points to increasing challenges in the labor market, possibly signaling a more widespread slowdown,” MacroMicro said on X.

Lead/lag ratio

Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell to 100.2 in August, falling to its lowest since October 2016. The index marked its sixth consecutive monthly decline, triggering a recession signal.

The LEI comprises several forward-looking indicators such as average weekly hours in manufacturing, average weekly initial claims for jobless insurance, ISM new orders index, stock prices and leading credit index. The index is widely tracked to identify shifts in economic trends and turning points in asset prices.

More concerning is the slide in the ratio between leading and lagging indicators to under 0.85, the lowest since at least the 1950s, according to data tracked by Jeff Weniger, head of equities at WisdomTree.

The plunge seen over the past several months points to a potential slowdown or recession, with lagging indicators catching up to the economic reality.

The ratio has seen eight similar meltdowns in the past, each portending a recession.

Surging gold/brent ratio

The ratio between prices for gold futures and brent crude futures has surged over 35% this year to nearly 40 points, the highest since 2020, according to data source MacroMicro.

Gold is a safe haven asset and an inflation hedge, while oil is tied to global demand and economic activity. Therefore, gold’s prolonged outperformance relative to oil is often taken to represent a sign of economic slowdown.

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Crypto Inspired by ‘Moo Deng’ Zooms to $100M as Hippo Meme Takes Over Internet

Holder count has zoomed to 12,400 unique wallets with over $48.5 million in volume traded over the last 24 hours, a fan page for the token said Wednesday.

Moo Deng, a newborn Thai hippo at the Khao Kheow Open Zoo in Bangkok, has captured the hearts of many online through her cute antics. Now, she’s the star of a $100 million memecoin.

The Solana token crossed the milestone capitalization earlier Thursday, becoming one of the few to reach that level from zero in recent months, CoinMarketCap data shows.

It’s also the first Thai-themed token to hit that market cap, though it’s not a Thai project per se, according to Udomsak Rakwongwan, a professor at Kasetsart University and co-founder of decentralized exchange FWX.Finance.

“There used to be other memes in Thailand, but they were not so successful because they began in Thailand,” he said. “There was a token about ex-junta prime minister. It went quite viral, but the price and market caps didn’t go anywhere.”

“Moodeng is a little different,” because the hippo has been on major global media and appeals to a global audience rather than a token about a politician that only Thais would know.

Holder count has zoomed to 12,400 unique wallets, with over $48.5 million in volume traded over the last 24 hours, a fan page for the token said Wednesday.

One trader made millions from the hippo heartthrob, with on-chain data from Lookonchain showing a wallet that turned $1,331 into $3.4 million by correctly timing the market.

Moo Deng – which means bouncy pork in Thai – was born in July and became a popular Internet meme earlier this month after images of her went viral online. She has two siblings, brother Moo Toon (stewed pork) and sister Moo Waan (sweet pork). They also birthed tokens on Solana and other networks, but failed to catch the traction that Moo Deng did.

Companies including Dreamworks and UFC are using Moo Deng’s popularity to produce memes based on the hippo, a shift away from the usual cats or dogs.

The Bangkok zoo is reportedly working on copyrighting and trademarking “Moo Deng the hippo” for fundraising purposes. So far, it hasn’t acknowledged the memecoin or any crypto-related Moo Deng imagery.

Meanwhile, some see the token as a fresh, engaging memecoin with genuine appeal due to its cute and interesting theme.

“I believe Moodeng is EXACTLY what meme coins should be like,” X user and crypto trader @0xuberM said. “Something genuinely cute/interesting with crazy normie appeal that will capture enough attention over a sustained period of time to guarantee PVE expansion where everyone eats.”

Curve Finance Mulls Removing TrueUSD as Collateral for Stablecoin Curve USD

“crvUSD is overexposed to minor stablecoins, especially TUSD which has a dubious track record and has recently been charged by the SEC with defrauding investors,” the proposer wrote.

A new proposal on Curve Finance, a decentralized exchange (DEX) for stablecoin trading, is contemplating the removal of TrueUSD (TUSD) from its list of collateral tokens for its stablecoin, Curve USD (crvUSD).

Curve Finance is one of the largest and most used decentralized finance protocols, holdings billions of dollars in user funds. It is autonomously governed by its CRV token holders, who float and vote on proposals to keep the protocol running.

“WormholeOracle” proposed reducing the upper limit on TUSD backing for crvUSD to zero, meaning that TUSD tokens can no longer underpin crvUSD if the proposal is passed. They also recommended reducing the minting capacity of crvUSD with PayPal’s stablecoin, PYUSD, from $15 million to $5 million, aiming for a more balanced reliance on different collateral assets.

“crvUSD is overexposed to minor stablecoins, especially TUSD which has a dubious track record and has recently been charged by the SEC with defrauding investors,” WormHoleOracle wrote in the proposal. “It may be prudent to consider completely removing crvUSD exposure to TUSD, which has a notably poor track record on peg stability and transparency standards compared to all other PegKeeper stablecoins.”

Currently, users can mint up to $10 million worth of crvUSD using TUSD through what’s known as the ‘PegKeeper’ liquidity pool. A liquidity pool can be thought of as a collection of tokens stored on a smart contract.

PegKeeper debt ceiling is the max amount of crvUSD that a PegKeeper can mint to a target crvUSD pool. Historically, the USDC/USDT pools have been the primary liquidity centers and most useful PegKeeper pools for keeping crvUSD pegged to its intended U.S. dollar-backed – ensuring crvUSD is equal to $1 at all times.

The move is part of a broader strategy to diversify and ensure the stability of crvUSD by reducing reliance on any single asset, or group of assets, that are deemed risky.

It comes after regulatory concerns and legal challenges faced by TrueCoin, the original issuer of TUSD before it ended up in the hands of offshore firm Techteryx.

TrueCoin was earlier accused by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of engaging in unregistered offers and sales of securities involving TUSD through TrueFi, a stablecoin platform, and the agency said they remained closely tied to the asset after unloading the stablecoin to the other issuer.

The SEC alleged that TUSD was not fully backed by U.S. dollars as claimed, but instead, a significant portion of its reserves (allegedly 99%) was invested in a speculative offshore fund.

Earlier this week, the companies agreed to pay $163,766 each in fines, and TrueCoin will return nearly $400,000 in profits and interest, assuming a federal court approves the settlement.

U.S. Crypto Industry Will Follow a Different Path From Rest of World: BitMEX Group CEO

BitMex does not operate in the U.S. and is positioned more in Asia than any other part of the world.

SINGAPORE —The U.S. crypto market will take a different path from the rest of the world, consolidating more with traditional finance (TradFi), because of differences in the regulatory environment and customer needs, Stephan Lutz, CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, said in an interview at Token2049 in Singapore.

“I think that the U.S. crypto businesses will pivot in one direction that is consolidating TradFi with crypto,” Lutz said. “If you look at Coinbase, if you look at Circle, you look at Kraken, they are basically going more and more into becoming a digital twin of the TradFi system.”

The split, Lutz called it a bifurcation, means U.S. crypto businesses will focus on domestic customers, and companies from the rest of the world will stay out of the country. BitMEX itself does not operate there, having pleaded guilty in July to violating the Bank Secrecy Act and failing to set up an adequate know-your-customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) program between 2015 and 2020. In 2022, co-founders Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo and Samuel Reed were fined a total of $30 million for violating money-laundering rules.

Instead, BitMEX is more prominently placed in Asia, said Lutz, who was previously a partner at PwC after spending time at Deutsche Boerse, the operator of Germany’s largest stock exchange.

The industry has been “begging for issue-specific legislation in the U.S. for years,” he said, though he’s not optimistic of the chances for crypto legislation moving through the Senate before November’s presidential election.

“Market institutions in Asia will take advantage of America’s confusion.”

Asia and India

Unlike the U.S. and European Union where almost everyone has access to the conventional banking system, Asia has the banked – family offices, accredited investors and wealthy corporates – alongside the so-called unbanked, who comprise more than half of the continent.

It’s that group that needs alternative services such as international remittances from family members working abroad to support relatives at home, a real use case.

“This is why you have a bifurcation of the markets. You serve completely different needs,” Lutz said.

According to Lutz, outside of the U.S., India will power the crypto industry in the next 10 years provided the companies are reasonably open and if policymakers understand that crypto “actually adds to their capability of maintaining” monetary policy independence.

Celo Challenges Tron’s Leadership in Active Stablecoin Addresses

The CELO token rallied over 20% on Wednesday as Vitalik Buterin cheered Celo’s progress.

Celo, an Ethereum layer 2 and blockchain-based ecosystem dedicated to mobile-first decentralized applications and smart contracts, is challenging Tron’s position as the chain with the most daily active addresses using stablecoins.

The seven-day moving average of the daily active addresses using stablecoins on Celo has climbed to nearly 700,000, nearly matching Tron’s tally, according to data tracked by Artemis.

The surge follows Tether’s decision to deploy its industry-leading dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, on Celo in March. Since then, USDT worth over $200 million has been issued on the network.

A year ago, Celo and Opera partnered to launch MiniPay, a mobile-first non-custodial stablecoin wallet built on the Celo blockchain that facilitates the instant transfer of funds using a phone number.

“Within less than five months of its launch, MiniPay garnered over 1 million users across Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya,” a Celo representative told CoinDesk in an email.

On Wednesday, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin cheered Celo’s progress on X, galvanizing investor interest in the CELO token. As of writing, the cryptocurrency traded at 63 cents, representing a nearly 20% gain on a 24-hour basis, according to CoinDesk data.

“Improving worldwide access to basic payments/finance has always been a key way that ethereum can be good for the world, and it’s great to see @Celo getting traction,” Buterin said on X.

Celo still lags behind Tron in terms of value of stablecoin transferred on-chain this month. Data from Artemis shows that Celo has registered just over $1 billion in the so-called transfer volume, significantly less than Tron’s $335.7 billion. Ethereum remains in the pole position with a tally of over $470.4 billion.

Ethena Announces UStb Stablecoin Backed by Blackrock’s BUIDL

Reserves for UStb will be invested in BUIDL, which in turn holds U.S. dollars, U.S. Treasury bills, and repurchase agreements.

Ethena announced today that it’s developing a new stablecoin called UStb, which invests its reserves in BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL).

Its the second stablecoin from Ethena, as earlier this year it launched USDe, a synthetic stablecoin that derives its value from the cash-and-carry trade, an arbitrage strategy between an asset and its derivative to maintain its $1 peg.

In a blog post, the team explained that UStb will be a “wholly independent product” with a different risk profile compared to USDe.

The team also wrote that UStb helps USDe manage risk during tough markets by allowing Ethena’s governance to reallocate backing assets to UStb when needed.

USDe has brought about some concern from industry stakeholders who say that while the trade is safe, volatility in the markets – which crypto is known for – can quickly cause it to unwind.

In a thread on X, the team addressed some of these concerns, pointing out that while USDe has remained stable despite recent bearish conditions, it can dynamically adjust its backing between basis positions and liquid stable products and may incorporate UStb during periods of weak funding rates if needed.

Ethena said in the post that UStb will be listed on centralized exchanges like Bybit, Bitget, and any future exchanges that Ethena partners with, where USDe is already used as margin collateral.

More details on UStb will be available in the coming weeks, Ethena said.

Wall Street Titan Guggenheim Tokenizes $20M of Commercial Paper on Ethereum

Blockchain platform Zeconomy assisted the $300B asset manager with the transaction and reports “massive demand” for digital assets.

Guggenheim Treasury Services, a subsidiary of financial services giant Guggenheim Partners, has issued $20 million of tokenized commercial paper on the Ethereum blockchain, its partner, blockchain platform Zeconomy, announced Thursday.

A spokesperson for Guggenheim confirmed the transaction took place but would not comment further.

The tokenization comes weeks after German industrial giant Siemens AG issued digital commercial paper via megabank JPMorgan’s Onyx and blockchain platform SWIAT.

Tokenization of traditional financial instruments, referred to as real-world assets (RWA), has become one of the hottest areas in crypto for TradFi firms to dabble in lately. The niche has grown to a $12 billion market capitalization, including $2 billion of tokenized U.S. government securities, according to research firm RWA.XYZ.

“With tens of billions of dollars locked in DeFi and corporate treasuries, we are thrilled to partner with GTS to address a clear need for more trusted and secure blockchain solutions,” said Giacinto Cosenza, Zeconomy’s CEO, in a statement.

“As clearly demonstrated by the ETFs approval and the growth of the tokenization space, there is a massive demand for these digital assets, and we want to enable our partners so they can be at the forefront of what could be a transformative moment in the financial industry,” he said.

The commercial paper was rated P-1, the highest credit rating available for such instruments, by Moody’s Investors Service. Commercial paper is short-term (less than a year, usually 30 days), unsecured debt issued by corporations.

While RWA is a new direction for Guggenheim, which boasts a whopping $300 billion in assets under management (AUM), the global investment firm has previously participated in the crypto ecosystem.

The firm’s Macro Opportunities Funds has for years been authorized to take on up to 10% exposure to the former Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which in January converted into one of the spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETF).

First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Regains $64K as ETF Flow Trends Flip Positive

The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Sept. 26, 2024.

This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.

Latest Prices

CoinDesk 20 Index: 2,056.03 +1.34% Bitcoin (BTC): $64,350.91 +1.14% Ether (ETH): $2,6424.48 +0.09% S&P 500: 5,722.26 -0.19% Gold: $2,678.25 +0.8% Nikkei 225: 38,925.63 +2.79%

Top Stories

Bitcoin rose above $64,000 during the European morning to around $64,300, trading just over 1% higher in the last 24 hours. Other major tokens also registered gains, with ether adding 0.4% to $2,630. The CoinDesk 20 Index, a weighted measurement of the digital asset market at large, rose nearly 1.2%. In other markets, gold hit a record high and Asian stocks surged amid reports that China’s central bank will inject around $142 billion of stimulus into the biggest state banks to increase their capacity to support the struggling economy.

Bitcoin ETF inflows cracked $100 million for the second consecutive day on Wednesday and stretched their winning streak to five days. That flipped an indicator tracking 30-day net holdings among ETFs to positive for the first time this month, data from CryptoQuant shows, suggesting a rising trend of accumulation as opposed to sales. Ether ETFs enjoyed a second consecutive day of inflows, netting $43.2 million. While the ETH products remain over $500 million in the red since they listed in July, ether has outperformed bitcoin since the Fed’s rate cut last week, which coincided with an increase in network transactions and rising Ethereum transaction costs, known as gas fees.

Ethereum layer 2 Celo is challenging Tron’s position as the blockchain with the most daily active addresses using stablecoins. The seven-day moving average of the measure on Celo has climbed to nearly 700,000, nearly matching Tron’s tally, according to data tracked by Artemis. The surge follows Tether’s decision to deploy its industry-leading dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, on Celo in March. Since then, USDT worth over $200 million has been issued on Celo. On Wednesday, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin cheered Celo’s progress on X, galvanizing investor interest in the CELO token. As of writing, the cryptocurrency traded at 63 cents, representing a nearly 20% gain on a 24-hour basis, according to CoinDesk data.

Chart of the Day

– Omkar Godbole

Bitcoin Jumps Over $64K Ahead of Powell Speech; IBIT Options Could Provide Longer-Term Boost

Asian markets roared higher and gold notched another record following another round of Chinese fiscal and monetary stimulus.

Bitcoin (BTC) is again setting its sights on the $65,000 level not touched since the first week in August, with a speech later today from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell potentially the next catalyst.

“The market will be following Powell’s speech closely for indications of any shifts in sentiment following last Thursday’s FOMC press conference, which signaled the potential for further easing,” traders at Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a broadcast message.

Powell is expected to speak at 13:30 UTC at the U.S. Treasury Market Conference amid mounting expectations for another U.S. interest rate cut this year. The Fed announced its first round of cuts last week – leading to risk assets such as bitcoin surging – and traders expect a 62% chance of an additional 50 basis point reduction in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Gold notched another in what’s become a series of record highs of late, climbing nearly 1% to above $2,700 per ounce. China is reportedly mulling a $142 billion capital injection into its banking system, along with a number of other stimulus measures. The Shanghai Composite soared another 3.6% and is on track for its best week in a decade. U.S. stock index futures are ahead about 1%.

Bitcoin’s appeal is starting to grow among retail and professional investors alike. Data from SoSoValue shows that the total daily net inflows cracked $100 million for the second day in a row for the BTC ETFs, marking a five-day streak of positive net inflows for the funds.

On the other hand, retail bitcoin investors have accumulated 35,000 BTC in the past 30 days, highlighting increased confidence and participation from smaller holders.

Meanwhile, some say the newly-approved options on Blackrock’s Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has primed BTC for further gains ahead.

“The approval would increase liquidity and investor participation in the Bitcoin market, marking a further step toward broader institutional adoption,” onchain analysis firm CryptoQuant shared in a note with CoinDesk. “Indeed, Bitcoin options on the CME recorded a fresh high open interest of almost half a billion on March 12, 2024, growing by almost five-fold from their maximum level in 2023.”

Crypto Hackers Nabbed $409M in Q3: Immunefi

The figure is 40% less than in third-quarter 2023.

Hackers stole $409 million worth of cryptocurrency in the third quarter, and an additional $3 million was lost to fraud, according to a report by Immunefi.

The figure is 40% less than in third-quarter 2023, the bug bounty platform said.

The amount of capital locked on decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols represents an “unparalleled and attractive opportunity for blackhat hackers,” Immunefi said. There is currently $87.2 billion in total value locked (TVL) across DeFi, according to DefiLlama.

Most the quarter’s losses came from hacks of crypto exchanges, with India’s WazirX losing $235 million and Singapore’s BingX $52 million. The report said 32 other hacks accounted for 32% of total losses.

“We’re seeing a higher number of incidents targeting DeFi, while CeFi experiences fewer incidents but often with more severe consequences, with hundreds of millions in stolen funds in a single exploit,” said Mitchell Amador, founder and CEO of ImmuneFi.

“In CeFi, the biggest infrastructural issue is private key management, which is essential to maintaining the self-custody of crypto assets but is not typically subject to security audits. It requires rigorous key management policies, practices, and emergency plans.”

WazirX lost funds after hackers compromised the exchange’s private keys. The exchange halted withdrawals and froze trading on July 18, and is now seeking a moratorium from Singapore’s courts to give it time to restructure.

The Ethereum blockchain was the most common target for hackers, with 15 incidents of theft reported compared with eight on BNB Chain and two on Base.

There were also two incidents of funds being recovered after being stolen. Ronin Network recouped $10 million from a $12 million hack and ShezmuTech clawed back all $4.9 million that was taken.