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Bitcoin’s $100K Breakout Pause Likely Due to Liquidity Factors and Nvidia’s Stalled Rally

Slower inflow of liquidity and risk-off cues from NVDA might be holding back the upside.

For the third week, bitcoin (BTC) remains locked in a price range between $90,000 and $100,000, punctuated only by Dec. 5’s short-lived rise into six figures.
This indecisive price action might have left traders feeling uninspired, with two key reasons holding back the upside.

First, the influx of liquidity into the crypto market through channels like spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has significantly slowed, taking the wind out of the bullish momentum.

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The weekly rate of change in the so-called market liquidity impulse index, which tracks stablecoin mints, inflows into BTC ETFs and changes in futures market parameters, has more than halved to $7 billion from highs above $15 billion seen early last month, according to data tracked by 10x Research.

“This slowdown in liquidity growth may partially explain why bitcoin is struggling to sustain levels above $100,000,” Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a note to clients Wednesday.

The liquidity indicator has chalked out lower highs of late, diverging bearishly from BTC’s price.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to an external reference like the U.S. dollar and are widely used to fund crypto purchases. Meanwhile, ETFs are preferred investment vehicles for those looking to take exposure to the cryptocurrency without owning it. The same can be said about CME’s cash-settled futures.

The other reason, overlooked by most pundits, is the slowdown in the uptrend in shares in chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA), the world’s biggest company. Since the debut of ChatGPT in late 2022, NVDA has emerged as a bellwether for all things AI and risk assets in general.

BTC and NVDA bottomed out in late 2022 and boasted a strong positive correlation since then, barring the summer, when supply overhang fears kept BTC from tracking NVDA higher. As of writing, the three-month correlation between the two was 0.6.

Analysts at TheMarketEar believe BTC, with its post-U.S. election surge from $70,000 to $100,000, has caught up with NVDA

“Same psychology; winners like winners. BTC has ‘caught up’ to NVDA. They have little fundamentals in common but are driven by similar psychology,” analysts at TheMarketEar said in a note to clients, adding that NVDA is one of the few stocks that has outperformed BTC this year and over the last five years.

While BTC has risen 130% this year, NVDA has gained 172%, according to data source TradingView.

NVDA’s uptrend, however, has run out of steam since mid-November, with prices now teasing a bearish reversal pattern for heads and shoulders. Besides, the one-year put-call skew now shows calls trading at par with puts, exhibiting a neutral sentiment as opposed to a strong call (bullish) bias early this year, according to data source Market Chameleon.

That said, bullish excesses have been crowded out from the crypto market, as noted in Tuesday’s edition of the Crypto Daybook Americas. With the market normalized to more healthy leverage levels, we could see BTC having another go at the $100,000 mark, but sustainability of the breakout likely depends on liquidity inflows and broader risk sentiment.

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XRP Outperforms Bitcoin, Dogecoin Extends Slide Ahead of U.S. CPI

XRP whale exchange deposits hit a six-month high early Tuesday, indicating short-term bearish pressure.

XRP outperformed bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies, with dogecoin (DOGE) leading losses in the past 24 hours before the release of U.S. inflation data later Wednesday.

Bitcoin (BTC) remained steady around $98,000, while ether (ETH), BNB Chain’s bnb, and Cardano’s ADA fell by as much as 2%. Memecoin DOGE dropped 4%, even as shiba inu (SHIB) and floki (FLOKI) rose 1%. The broad-based CoinDesk 20 added 0.69%.

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to release November’s consumer price index (CPI) at 8:30 a.m. ET (13:30 UTC). Federal Reserve Chair Powell has said that incoming economic data will heavily influence interest-rate decisions —which may impact crypto markets in the new year. The previous month’s data showed that inflation remained a concern for the Fed.

XRP, meantime, surged as much as 7%, reversing losses since Monday, after related company Ripple Labs said it had received “final” regulatory approval to offer the RLUSD stablecoin in the U.S.

The stablecoin will be issued on both the XRP Ledger and Ethereum networks, and could be used on decentralized finance (DeFi) applications that involve XRP, boosting the ecosystem.

Before the announcement, deposits from XRP whales to exchanges hit a six-month high early Tuesday, indicating short-term bearish pressure. Over the past 30 days, more than 2.66 billion XRP tokens moved to Binance, data from CryptoQuant shows. That is the most since April 2024.

“The large inflows suggest that big XRP holders are actively transferring XRP over the network,” CryptoQuant independent analyst maartunn said in a post. “Whale deposits can often signal potential shifts in strategy, as these players have significant amounts of assets at their disposal.”

Large movements of XRP to Binance preceded price drops in November 2023 and April 2024.

Italy Set to Scale Back Planned Tax Hike on Crypto Capital Gains: Reuters

The tax increase will be significantly reduced during parliamentary work, lawmakers said.

Italy is set to trim its planned tax increase on crypto capital gains, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Two months ago, the government was intent on raising the tax to 42% from 26% by the end of December.

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“The tax increase will be significantly reduced during the parliamentary work,” lawmakers Giulio Centemero and Federico Freni, a junior minister at the Treasury, said in a statement according to Reuters.

The decision to increase the capital gains tax was inspired by the rising popularity of investments in crypto, especially bitcoin, which climbed above $100,000 last week. The “phenomenon is spreading,” Deputy Finance Minister Maurizio Leo told Bloomberg in October after announcing the news.

CoinDesk reached out to Centemero and Freni for a comment.

Trader Turns $2.5K Into $200K by Buying XRP With 500X Leverage

The position was dangerously close to liquidation before XRP moved to the upside.

A trader turned $2,500 into $200,000 by buying XRP futures with 500x leverage on cryptocurrency exchange Rollbit on Tuesday.

XRP jumped by 26% during U.S. trading hours after Ripple Labs, the company behind XRP, received “final” regulatory approval to offer the RLUSD stablecoin in the U.S.

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The savvy trader opened a position worth $2,560 when XRP was trading at $1.9025 and the amount of leverage meant that the position would have been liquidated if price slumped below $1.9004. The position was closed gradually between $2.13 and $2.29, netting a realized return of around 7,500%.

XRP is trading at $2.34 as it continues to outperform the wider market. It is up by 301% in the past 30-days, TradingView data shows.

It’s worth noting that trading with 500x leverage is a tremendous risk as the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies means that the position will be liquidated most of the time. Rollbit’s XRP market has racked up $186 million worth of volume over the past 24-hours and offers up to 1000x leverage.

Stablecoin Trading Startup Perena Tries Its Luck on Solana

Perena wants to be the “neutral layer” bringing liquidity to stablecoin issuers.

Solana Foundation’s former stablecoin lead Anna Yuan has left the mothership to build her own startup catering to the fast-growing crypto subsector.

The company building Perena, a stablecoin trading infrastructure project, raised “around $3 million” in a pre-seed funding round led by Borderless Capital, Yuan told CoinDesk in an interview last month.

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Perena isn’t solely focused on launching another stablecoin. Instead, it’s creating on-chain systems that allow the seemingly endless droves of other stablecoin newcomers to have good trading liquidity, even in nascency.

That’s the funny thing about stablecoins. While their exact backing recipes may slightly differ, most every stablecoin gets its value from essentially the same source: the U.S. dollar, the globally-recognized reserve currency. When dozens of fintech companies all have, essentially, their own digital version of the dollar, how will consumers, businesses, traders – anyone – move seamlessly between them?

“If PayPal, Robinhood and 20 other companies want to launch stablecoins on Solana, they’re going to have a really hard time getting any adoption, and those stablecoins are going to be any more usable than their fiat counterparts,” she said.

“We want to be the foundational layer – the neutral party that supports stablecoin issuers.”

The whole project is a bet that stablecoins will continue to grow in prominence – not only as a critical asset for traders speculating on cryptos, but as a store of value and medium of exchange, or, in other words, as money.

Yuan thinks that Solana’s fast speeds and cheap fees can be a catalyst for yet more people to experiment with bringing more of their money on-chain via stablecoins. It helps that so many crypto jobs are paying staff with stablecoins. Payroll introduces people to the on-chain economy, and they aren’t always so eager to offboard entirely.

Perena fits into this puzzle as a place of exchange. It is setting up swap pools that allow traders of up to seven different stablecoins to readily swap between assets – much like Curve’s 3pool does on Ethereum. Yuan said stablecoin holders will be able to earn extra yield by lending their assets into the pool, earning more based on their risk tolerance.

Along the pool infrastructure, Perena plans to build a form of “synthetic money” that according to Yuan will be more resilient than the fiat currencies most people hold in their traditional bank accounts.

This will take the form of a “collateralized debt position” (CDP) stablecoin backed by other stablecoins – much like MakerDAO (now Sky) did with DAI. Perena hasn’t finalized its design just yet but Yuan is hopeful that building a CDP next to a stableswap will create more “synergies.”

A Bullish XRP Flag Emerges as $5 Call Options Heat Up: Godbole

XRP’s price pattern is teasing a major bullish pattern alongside increased activity in the $5 strike call options on Deribit

XRP is hot and it is probably setting up for another big rally. That’s the message from the price chart and options market.

The payments-focused cryptocurrency is down 10% this week. The pullback, however, has taken the shape of a bull flag. This technical analysis pattern usually slopes in the opposite direction of the preceding sharp uptrend and, more often than not, recharges bulls’ engines for further gains.

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“The breakout should be expected in the direction of the preceding trend, provided it is steep and sharp,” Charles Kirkpatrick, a chartered market technician and the president of Kirkpatrick & Company, Inc, said in the book “Technical Analysis, the Complete Resource For Finance Market Technicians.”

“Flags preceded by a rise of 90% or more have almost zero failure rate and an average return of 69%,” Kirkpatrick added.

XRP is forming a bull flag after a rally of nearly 500% to $2.9 in the four weeks to Dec. 3. An eventual breakout would mean scope for a rally to $5. The potential level is identified by adding the magnitude of the preceding uptrend to the breakout point, currently at around $2.5 in what is known as a measured height method in technical analysis terminology.

Interestingly, activity is heating up in the $5 strike call options on Deribit, offering an asymmetric upside to buyers on a potential move above that level.

The $5 call is the second-most traded XRP option of the past 24 hours, with a volume of 1.7 million contracts, according to data source Amberdata. (One contract represents 1 XRP).

Besides, Deribit data shows the $5 call is the most popular out-of-the-money or higher strike call option with a notional open interest of $1.25 million. The increased activity indicates a bullish positioning, assuming the buyers are traders, not market makers.

Still, readers might want to note that technical analysis patterns do not always work as intended, and options market positioning can flip quickly per evolving price trends. As such, tracking the broader market sentiment is pivotal.

Bitcoin Crosses Above $101K as XRP, AI Tokens Lead Crypto Rally Following CPI

Wednesday morning’s in line U.S. inflation data seemingly cleared the way for a Fed rate cut next week.

The crypto market is in recovery mode on Wednesday following a cascade of selling earlier in the week that for now appears to have flushed out much of the long leverage.

The move higher comes alongside a sizable rally in the U.S. stock market following this morning’s Consumer Price Index report that matched economist forecasts. The news was enough to convince traders that the Federal Reserve is certain to trim its benchmark fed funds rate another 25 basis points at its meeting next week. The Nasdaq is ahead 1.5% and the S&P 500 just shy of 1%.

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After having fallen to as low as $94,100 at one point earlier this week, bitcoin (BTC) has recovered to $101,000, up more than 6% over the past 24 hours. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is ahead nearly 11% over that same time frame, led by XRP’s 15% advance.

Also among top performers today are AI-related tokens, perhaps buoyed by a report in The Information that Apple (AAPL) is working with Broadcom (AVGO) on an AI chip.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR), Internet Computer (ICP) and Render (RENDER) are all up by 15% or more over the past 24 hours.

Crypto Doesn’t Care About Cash Flow. That Will Soon Change, Says Pantera Capital

Cosmo Jiang, portfolio manager at Pantera Capital, says that crypto investing will get more fundamentals-oriented as the industry matures.

It’s not easy to pick what crypto tokens to invest in. Conventional wisdom among crypto natives is that you shouldn’t think too hard about it — after all, coins named after dogs, frogs or cats will regularly outperform tokens tied to legitimate projects.

But that state of affairs cannot last forever, according to Cosmo Jiang, a general partner and portfolio manager at crypto hedge fund and venture capital firm Pantera Capital.

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“If fundamental investing does not come to this industry, it just means that we failed,” Jiang, a self-described classically trained investor who worked in banking and private equity before joining crypto in 2022, told CoinDesk in an interview. “All assets eventually follow the laws of gravity. The only thing that matters to investors at the end of the day — and this has been true for millennia — is cash flow.”

“Crypto went from nothing to $3.4 trillion in market cap now on the back of retail interest,” Jiang said, “but the only way for this asset class to keep growing is by attracting institutional capital. And institutional capital will only care about fundamentals. Logically, that will be the only way to make money on a sustainable basis going forward.”

Pantera has roughly $5 billion in assets under management, Jiang said, with about 75% of those funds locked in venture vehicles and the rest in liquid assets. As the portfolio manager of the firm’s liquid token fund, Jiang’s focus lies in publicly traded tokens.

How does he pick which ones to add to the fund’s portfolio? By looking at product-market fit — meaning, at crypto projects that are developing products in areas where there’s huge demand. There are wwo basic questions at the forefront of his mind: whether the team can execute on their vision, and whether there’s a chance their token will capture some of the economic surplus generated.

“This will sound so stupid to anyone that works with normal asset classes, because it’s so normal,” Jiang said. “But in crypto, for whatever reason, this method is non-consensus.”

Solana versus Ethereum

When it comes to crypto projects, layer-1 networks offer some of the most battle-hardened business models. Smart contract platforms are relatively old — Ethereum launched in 2015 — and generate revenue through transaction fees. Their tokens also accrue value when their networks see increased usage. Solana’s SOL and Telegram’s TON have been two of Jiang’s favorites. But Ethereum’s ether (ETH), to him, isn’t as attractive of an investment as it used to be, because new users aren’t flocking to the network.

Solana saw almost 3 million in average daily active addresses in the last six months, according to a Dune dashboard by altcoin_analyst, while Ethereum only saw 454,000. Moreover, Solana has increased its revenue by 180% in the last 30 days, compared to Ethereum’s 37%, per TokenTerminal. And that means the difference in annualized revenue is shrinking: Solana made $1.27 billion in the last 12 months and is quickly catching up to Ethereum’s $2.4 billion. Despite that, Solana’s market capitalization is still four times lower than Ethereum’s.

“Take a look at incremental growth and compare how much has gone to Solana versus Ethereum. The numbers are stark,” Jiang said. “None of this stuff is worth anything if no one uses it.”

“Ethereum clearly has a lot of very talented people building on it. It has an interesting roadmap, but it’s also valued for that, right?” Jiang added. “It is a very large asset. At $435 billion, that would rank it amongst one of the most successful companies in the world if it were compared to equity. And the unfortunate fact is it’s currently losing market share [to Solana and others].”

Another big difference between the two networks lies in their architecture. In its attempt to solve scaling issues, Ethereum has switched to a so-called modular blockchain design, meaning that various network tasks are split between Ethereum and its associated layer 2s like Arbitrum or Optimism. Solana, meanwhile, has kept it monolithic — everything happens on one blockchain.

For Jiang, that means Solana has an advantage in terms of user interface, and also in terms of capturing the network’s value through SOL. Ethereum, meanwhile, ends up splitting its value across an array of tokens and blockchains, which means the network needs to facilitate a lot more transactions for ETH to outmatch SOL. However, Ethereum’s throughput is rapidly increasing, so in theory the network could develop enough activity for that to eventually happen, but it’s not a guarantee.

“The driving force behind Ethereum philosophy has been maximum decentralization,” Jiang said. “I’m not a crypto native, I’m really a tech investor, so I don’t believe in decentralization for the sake of decentralization. There’s probably a minimum viable decentralization that’s good enough.”

We’re still early

Jiang’s attention isn’t confined to layer 1s, however. DePIN — an umbrella term for projects focused on building physical infrastructure with the help of blockchain technology — is another source of interest for him and his team. DePIN (short for “Decentralized physical infrastructure network”) projects include Render Network (RNDR), which enables people to lease unused computing power, and Arweave (AR), which functions as a data storage network.

“When I’m talking to [liquidity providers] … the only stuff that gets them interested is DePIN, because these are real businesses in the real world, it’s something that people can actually allocate and get behind,” Jiang said.

But he’s not against investing in memecoins too — or, at least, in the projects that enable memecoin trading, if not the coins themselves. “I would never, as a hedge fund investor, invest in a blackjack player,” he said. “But I’ve made a lot of money investing in casinos.” And there’s reason to believe the sector could keep expanding, because at the end of the day, the revenue generated by Pump.fun, trading bots and decentralized exchanges is still small compared to the revenue generated by the $540 billion global gambling market.

Even so, Jiang’s strategy failed to outperform bitcoin’s (BTC) 132% return in 2024, he said. In his view, that’s due to bitcoin being relatively advanced in its own bullish cycle, whereas blockchain technology has lagged behind throughout the year. That being said, prospective returns on such tokens should ultimately be higher than for bitcoin, he said, especially since the incoming Trump administration will likely be much friendlier towards the industry than the Biden one ever was.

“On a compounded multi-year basis, we will do extremely well,” Jiang said. “If blockchain reaches billions of users over time, then almost logically, you have to believe that everything else will grow a lot faster than bitcoin.”

Stablecoin Market Cap Hits $200B Milestone, Could Double in 2025 as Adoption Accelerates

Asset manager Bitwise sees the stablecoin market growing to $400 billion next year, with U.S. legislation, fintech adoption and global payments driving the growth.

The booming stablecoin market hit another milestone Wednesday, crossing the $200 billion total market value mark for the first time ever as demand accelerates and adoption expands for the assets.

The asset class as a whole added $10 billion market value in only two weeks since it surpassed the 2022 bull cycle record of $190 billion, according to CCData and DefiLlama.

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Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to hold a steady price, predominantly pegged to the U.S. dollar. They are a key piece of infrastructure for the digital assets space, serving as the main source of liquidity for trading crypto assets on exchanges and move value on blockchain rails.

Demand for stablecoins grew steadily through the past year as crypto markets emerged from a brutal bear market. The growth significantly accelerated following Donald Trump’s election victory last month, adding $30 billion supply as investors poured funds into cryptocurrencies in a frenzy.

Tether’s USDT, the most popular stablecoin, climbed to a record supply of $139 billion, up 12% in a month, DefiLlama data shows. USDT was recognized as an accepted virtual asset by the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) earlier this week, and the issuer aims to expand services across the Middle East region.

Circle’s USDC, the second-largest in the asset class, also grew 9% to nearly $41 billion market value during the same period. Circle just recently teamed up with Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume, to push USDC adoption globally.

It’s not just the booming crypto market that drives growth, though.

There’s evidence for increasing stablecoin usage for payments, remittances and savings, especially in developing countries with rapidly depreciating local currency and fragile financial systems. One indication of stablecoin adoption for non-crypto use cases is the rapidly growing number of stablecoin transactions on transfer applications including peer-to-peer payment platforms, Nik Milanovic, partner at the venture capital firm Fintech Fund, pointed out in an X post.

Tokenized products with stable prices that offer yield to investors are also in vogue. Ethena’s dollar-pegged USDe token, which generates yield by shorting bitcoin and ether perpetuals farming the funding rate, surged over $5 billion, up 90% in a month, per DefiLlama data. Up-and-coming decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Usual’s stablecoin zoomed to $700 million, doubling in size during the same period.

Market cap could double in 2025

The growth will likely continue into the next year, with digital asset manager Bitwise predicting the stablecoin market as reaching $400 billion in 2025. According to a Tuesday report, one of the key catalysts could be the U.S. Congress passing long-awaited stablecoin legislation that defines rules for businesses and institutions to issue and interact with tokens.

“Clear answers to big questions—Who regulates them? What are the proper reserve requirements?— will spark massive new interest among issuers, consumers, and businesses,” Bitwise analysts wrote. “When that happens, expect some large traditional banks like J.P. Morgan and others to enter the space.”

Other growth catalysts include popular fintech applications integrating stablecoins to their services following Paypal’s example with its PYUSD stablecoin, and the increasing role of stablecoins in global payments and remittances, the report added.

It’s not just Bitwise who came out with bullish projections for stablecoins. Standard Chartered and Zodia Markets forecasted in a report last month that stablecoins could reach to the equivalent of 10% of U.S. money supply and foreign exchange transactions, up from the current 1%.

Bitcoin Going to $200K, Coinbase to Join S&P 500: Bitwise’s 10 Predictions for 2025

This year was good for crypto, but 2025 might turn out even better for the sector, according to Bitwise Asset Management.

With the highly successful introduction of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, the U.S. crypto regulatory situation looking much rosier now that former President Donald Trump has been elected for a second term, and the bullish price action, it’s undeniable that 2024 was a big year for crypto.

But things could get even crazier in 2025, according to Bitwise Asset Management, a firm which specializes in developing crypto investment products. The company laid out 10 crypto predictions for the year to come in a report released Wednesday, penned by the firm’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, and its head of research, Ryan Rasmussen.

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First among the predictions is that all major cryptocurrencies will see new record highs. Bitcoin will push to $200,000, said Bitwise, while ether will hit $7,000 and solana will more than triple to $750.

Bitcoin’s rise will be fueled by even bigger ETF inflows than in 2024, Bitwise said. That’s a strong statement given their success already, but the team noted that it’s not unusual fo ETFs to take in larger flows in year two versus year one. They also remind that major wirehouses are only now finishing up their due diligence on the products and investors are feeling more comfortable increasing their exposure to bitcoin.

There’s also the possibility that the U.S. Department of Labor won’t be so adversarial towards the sector anymore, which according to Bitwise could enable tens of billions of dollars to flow into crypto assets from 401(k) plans.

And a potential bitcoin arms race — kicked off by U.S. politicians’ plans to constitute a strategic bitcoin reserve — would certainly help move the price upwards. Bitwise predicted that the number of countries holding bitcoin will double in 2025 from nine to eighteen.

Other possibilities for 2025

Stablecoins will likely benefit from clear legislation in the U.S. and fintech integrations, as well as rising prices, and double their market capitalization to $400 billion, according to Bitwise.

Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), meanwhile, could see their value shoot past $50 billion as Wall Street keeps wading deeper into the sector.

And the 2025 memecoin mania could even top this year’s, as AI agents are making it easier than ever to launch tokens.

Crypto companies will also have a good year, Bitwise predicted. A host of them could launch IPOs, Bitwise said, with stablecoin issuer Circle, crypto lending firm Figure, on-chain data company Chainalysis, crypto exchange Kraken and crypto custodian Anchorage Digital as the most likely to do so.

Already public for several years, crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) could see its stock top $700 per share, or more than double the current level, Bitwise said, meaning it would surpass Charles Schwab as the most valuable brokerage in the world.

Further, suggests Bitwise, it could mean that Coinbase could be included in the S&P 500. Coupled with MicroStrategy’s likely inclusion into the Nasdaq 100, there’s a chance that almost every U.S. investor will have exposure to crypto through these investment vehicles.