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Bitcoin Prices Show Positive 30-Day Correlation With China’s Central Bank Balance Sheet

“The new inflow of cash could indirectly push up the price of bitcoin, particularly in the long term perspective,” one analyst said.

Bitcoin (BTC) prices seem to have tracked the growth in the Chinese central bank’s balance sheet over the past eight years, maintaining a notable positive 30-day correlation.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), holds roughly $6.22 trillion worth of U.S. dollars on its balance sheet. At press time, the 30-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin’s price and the PBOC’s balance sheet size was 0.66, according to data source TradingView. Its always been positive except 2016 and from late 2022 to 2023. On the other hand, as of writing, bitcoin had a -0.88 correlation over 30 days with the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, the lowest on record since 2016.

A strong correlation means a co-efficient of 0.6-0.9, and 0.8-1 is considered a very strong correlation. Correlations are a statistical measure of how two variables are related and can be used in financial markets to predict or track asset prices.

The positive correlation is noteworthy as early this week, the PBOC said it was considering injecting up to 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) of capital into its biggest state banks to increase their capacity to support the struggling economy.

The central bank also cut the reserve requirement ratio for mainland banks by 50 basis points (bps) while lowering the seven-day reverse repo rate – the interest rate at which a central bank borrows funds from commercial banks – by 20 bps to 1.5%.

BTC has gained nearly 3% this week and is up over 10% for the month, according to CoinDesk data. Asian stocks led by China have also surged in the wake of PBOC’s stimulus bazooka. The CSI 300 Index of large-cap shares soared 4.5% on Friday, bringing this week’s gain to 16% in the biggest run since 2008.

Like the U.S., China’s stimulus aims to lower unemployment and spur business growth. The new inflow of cash could indirectly push up the price of Bitcoin, particularly from a long-term perspective, market analyst Nick Ruck told CoinDesk in a Telegram message on Friday.

“The stimulus could lead to increased investment in blockchain companies that may include mining technology and startups,” Ruck said. “Select funds may also be able to increase exposure to crypto-related investments offshore, such as in stock-listed firms and ETFs in Hong Kong.”

The bump won’t be limited to bitcoin, some say, as all riskier assets are expected to get a boost in the coming months.

“It’s all the green light for global risk markets as U.S. equities hit new ATHs for the 3rd time this week, helped by a rapid-fire of furious stimulus to resuscitate the long-struggling Chinese economy,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk. “This has led macro observers to turn explicitly bullish on all risk assets in the interim, with a seemingly globally synchronized easing move that was reminiscent of the easy-money days from the QE era.”

“Naturally, crypto prices are still highly correlated to equity performance. However, investor sentiment seems to have flipped to a ‘buy the dip’ mode, and risk-reward favors a continued rally with no or little downside catalysts in sight,” Fan added.

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Fantasy Sports Company Sorare Charged With Providing Unlicensed Gambling Facilities in U.K.

Sorare was charged with violating the Gambling Act 2005 in the regulator’s first move against a blockchain-based platform.

Sorare, a fantasy sports company, was charged with providing unlicensed gambling facilities in the U.K. in the Gambling Commission’s first action against a blockchain-based platform.

The company, based in Saint-Mande, France, operates fantasy soccer, basketball and baseball games that allow participants to buy and sell collectible cards using non-fungible tokens (NFTs). It has inked deals with the English Premier League and Germany’s Bundesliga, among other national sporting associations. NFTs are unique digital tokens used to represent assets.

“Sorare is charged with providing facilities for gambling without holding an operating licence,” the commission said on its website. The company will have to appear on Oct. 4 in Birmingham Magistrates’ Court.

The charges follow an almost three-year inquiry by the regulator. In 2021 the commission said it was looking into whether Sorare needed a gambling license. The case is the first time it has clamped down on the use of a blockchain-based platform and the outcome could set a precedent for how regulators handle Web3 firms in the future.

It is also another sign suggesting U.K. regulators are taking more enforcement action against suspected illicit activity in the crypto space following a swoop on unregulated crypto ATM’s.

“We firmly deny any claims that Sorare is a gambling product under U.K. laws,” a Sorare spokesperson said. “The Commission has misunderstood our business and wrongly determined that gambling laws apply to Sorare.”

Bitcoin FOMO is Back: 10X Research’s Markus Thielen

A $10 billion surge in stablecoin minting over the past weeks has flooded the crypto market with liquidity, Thielen noted.

Impressive gains since the U.S. Federal Reserve’s mid-September rate cut have pushed bitcoin (BTC) out of its downtrend and the crypto is now targeting $70,000 and then new record highs, according to a new research report.

“Are you holding enough bitcoin and altcoins to ride the new wave,” is the subtitle of 10X Research’s Markus Thielen’s latest analysis. “With bitcoin breaking above $65,000, we anticipate a swift move toward $70,000, followed by new all-time highs in the near term.”

Thielen took note of a sharp increase in stablecoin minting following the Fed’s July meeting, at which it left rates unchanged but indicated a September easing was likely. Nearly $10 billion in stablecoin minting ensued in the subsequent weeks, said Thielen, flooding the crypto markets with liquidity and sharply surpassing spot ETF flows.

Of particular interest, said Thielen, Circle’s USDC accounted for 40% of recent stablecoin inflows, a far higher share versus Tether’s USDT than is typical. It’s important, he said, as while USDT minting on TRON is typically associated with capital preservation, USDC minting could indicate a rise in DeFi activity.

Noting that 55% of currently mined bitcoins are coming from Chinese mining pools, Thielen said that country’s massive monetary and fiscal stimulus measures – announced just after the Fed rate cut – could trigger large capital outflows from China and into cryptos.

“The likelihood of a Q4 rally is exceptionally high, with gains likely front-loaded,” Thielen concluded. “A major surge could be on the horizon, sparking even more FOMO across the crypto space.”

Bitcoin currently is higher by 2.3% over the past 24 hours and nearly 12% month-over-month to $66,300, its highest level since late July.

MicroStrategy 2X Leveraged ETF Sees Massive Inflows In First Week Of Trading As MSTR Outperforms Bitcoin

The T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) took in $72 million in the first week of trading, according to data by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Seven days after hitting the market, the T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) has become one of the most successful new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the market after attracting over $72 million.

The fund, issued by REX Shares and Tuttle Capital Management, promises two times the daily performance to the stock of MicroStrategy (MSTR), the software mogul turned bitcoin strategy company, the most leverage any fund tied to MSTR gives.

A similar fund, the Defiance Daily Target 1.75X Long MicroStrategy ETF (MSTX), promises traders returns of 175% of the daily percentage change in the share price of MSTR. MSTX went live on Aug. 15 and has so far taken in roughly $857 million, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, putting it in the top 8% of launches this year.

“Both have robust liquidity,” Balchunas said in a post on X. “I didn’t think there was room for both (esp so quickly), it just [shows] how much ‘need for speed’ there is out there.”

MicroStrategy has been an attractive investment for traders looking to gain exposure to bitcoin (BTC) without directly investing in the digital asset, as shares of the company are highly correlated with the token due to MicroStrategy’s holding 252,220 BTC.

MicroStrategy outperforms bitcoin and tech in current market rally

Bitcoin’s price has just exceeded $66,000 for the first time since July 31. At that time, MicroStrategy was priced at $168; it is now trading at almost $178, $10 a share higher. As MicroStrategy is trading higher while bitcoin effectively has been flat since then, this shows that MicroStrategy is leading the current rally.

Another development can be seen with the divergence between MicroStrategy and NVIDIA (NVDA). Both assets were in lockstep for the past month, but since Sept. 19, MicroStrategy has gone on from strength to strength while NVIDIA has flatlined. This shows that tech is not the primary driver in this rally.

Mango Markets Agrees to Destroy MNGO Tokens in SEC Settlement

Mango DAO, Mango Labs and Blockworks Foundation agreed to settle charges with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Friday.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) settled charges with Mango DAO, Mango Labs LLC and Blockworks Foundation alleging that the MNGO token was an unregistered security and that the latter entities offered unregistered broker services.

The entities will destroy their MNGO tokens and ask crypto exchanges to stop trading the tokens, as well as pay $700,000 total as part of the settlement, which is still subject to a court’s approval, the SEC announced Friday in a press release. The settlement comes just over a month after Mango DAO held an open vote on whether it should adopt the settlement offer proposal. The DAO voted on a settlement proposal with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) earlier this week as well, which passed unanimously.

Mango DAO members vote on proposals through the MNGO governance token. It’s unclear what the project’s future will look like without the token. The SEC’s press release noted that Mango DAO and Blockworks Foundation (no relation to the news and events business) sold $70 million worth of MNGO tokens starting in August 2021.

As part of the settlement, Mango DAO, Blockworks Foundation and Mango Labs are neither admitting nor denying the charges.

In a statement, SEC Acting Crypto and Cyber Unit Chief Jorge Tenreiro said any entity that offers “securities-intermediary functions” needs to register or otherwise be exempt from registration with the SEC.

“Since the inception of our crypto enforcement program, our view has been that the label ‘DAO’ does not change the reality of who is behind a project, what activities they engage in, or whether their activities need to be registered. Nor does engaging in intermediation of securities with the aid of automated or open source software change the nature of such activities,” he said in the statement.

Last year, Mango Markets – which has struggled to recover since Avraham Eisenberg drained more than $110 million worth of tokens from the exchange in 2022 – tried relaunching the decentralized trading venue. Eisenberg was convicted of fraud and market manipulation tied to his actions around Mango earlier this year, though his sentencing has been pushed to Dec. 12, 2024.

Binance Founder Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao Is a Free Man

Zhao, who has been in a halfway house since late August, was released on Friday.

Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao has been released from prison, according to the U.S. Bureau of Prisons (BOP).

Zhao’s release comes two days ahead of his scheduled release date this Sunday, Sep. 29. The BOP is legally allowed to release prisoners early if their release date falls on a weekend or holiday.

In April, Zhao was sentenced to four months in prison for violating the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) by failing to set up an adequate know-your-customer (KYC) program at Binance. As part of his guilty plea, Zhao also agreed to pay a $50 million fine and step down as CEO of the crypto exchange. The exchange agreed to pay a $4.3 million fine to various U.S. regulators to settle related charges.

Though custodial sentences for violations of the BSA are unusual (former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, who pleaded guilty to similar charges in 2022 was sentenced only to probation), Zhao’s four-month sentence was lenient compared to the three years sought by federal prosecutors.

The judge overseeing Zhao’s case, U.S. District Judge Richard Jones of the Western District of Washington, seemed to be swayed by Zhao’s squeaky-clean criminal record and positive reputation – aided by 161 letters of support from his friends, family, and colleagues.

Zhao – formerly known as Inmate #88087-510 – served three months in a low-security prison, Lompoc II, on California’s central coast. In August, he was moved to a halfway house in San Pedro, California.

At an estimated net worth of $25.3 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires’ Index, he is believed to be the richest person to ever go to prison in the U.S.

A spokesperson for Zhao declined to comment when reached by CoinDesk.

China’s Former Minister of Finance Calls Crypto a ‘Crucial Aspect’ of Digital Economy

The former minister called on Beijing to study the industry in light of Republican candidate Donald Trump’s comments on crypto.

China’s former minister of finance, Zhu Guangyao, said at a forum hosted by Tsinghua University that the government should study crypto more closely, given remarks made on the U.S. campaign trail.

Crypto “has negative impacts, and we must fully recognize its risks and the harm it poses to capital markets,” Sina News quoted him as saying. “However, we must also study the latest international changes and policy adjustments, as it is a crucial aspect of digital economy development.”

Sina reports that Zhu pointed directly at Republican Candidate Donald Trump’s remarks as a need for further action by Beijing.

At the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in July, Trump said that the U.S. must embrace the crypto industry fully, or “China will do it.”

Crypto, he said at the time, is “the steel industry of 100 years ago. You’re just in your infancy. One day, it probably will overtake gold. There’s never been anything like it.”

Zhu also noted that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had approved bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) despite initial opposition.

While mainland China remains cautious on crypto, Hong Kong – which maintains a semi-autonomous system of government and market regulations – has embraced it, listing bitcoin and ether ETFs, while some members of its mini-legislature actively court the industry to open up shop in the city.

Bitcoin Bulls Eye $75K and Higher as BTC Registers Three-Week Winning Streak

BTC has registered its first three-week winning trend since February.

Bitcoin (BTC) has notched its first three-week winning streak since February, according to data source TradingView. The upswing has been characterized by traders buying call options, offering an asymmetric upside potential above $75,000.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value rose over 3% in the seven days to Sept. 29, extending over 7% price increases that occurred in each of the previous two weeks. China’s large stimulus announcement and inflows into the U.S.-listed spot ETFs, equivalent to more than a month’s supply of newly mined BTC, likely helped the cryptocurrency maintain the upward trajectory.

As prices rose, dealers saw massive call buying activity at the $75,000 strike price and beyond on crypto exchange Deribit, according to order flow tracked by Amberdata. Investors also sold put options.

“This flow pattern suggests a bullish outlook for spot prices (due to the put selling) while also anticipating an acceleration in price movement,” Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives, Greg Magadini, said in a note shared with CoinDesk.

A call option gives the holder the right but not the obligation to purchase the underlying asset, BTC, at a predetermined price at a later date. A call buyer is implicitly bullish on the market, while a put buyer is bearish, looking to hedge against price swoons.

The bullish flow of increased call buying and put selling suggests expectations that prices will soon break out of a six-month-long corrective trend, referred to as the “expanding triangle” by veteran analyst Peter Brandt.

A potential break out would mean the broader uptrend from October 2023 lows under $30,000 has resumed.

“A break above $75K could lead to a swift rally through all-time highs toward $100K, where the last tranche of call buyer activity is concentrated in the December 27, 2024, expiration,” Magadini said.

Crypto Services Provider Matrixport Buys Deutsche Boerse Unit, Crypto Finance

Crypto Finance AG has been renamed as Matrixport Asset Management AG (MAM).

Singapore-based crypto financial services platform Matrixport has announced an all-cash acquisition of licensed Swiss crypto asset manager and former Deutsche Boerse Group subsidiary, Crypto Finance (Asset Management) AG.

The Switzerland-based entity, now renamed Matrixport Asset Management AG (MAM), offers cutting-edge, institutional-grade digital assets investment solutions, including the first FINMA-approved crypto fund.

FINMA is the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, an independent regulator of the European nation’s financial markets. Matrixport has $6 billion in assets under management.

The regulatory-compliant acquisition expands Matrixport’s footprints in Europe, reflecting the firm’s “steadfast commitment towards continually collaborating with regulators to review existing regulations and refine virtual assets specific regulations in the years to come,” Matrixport’s Chief Compliance Officer & Head of Regulatory, Christopher Liu, said in the press release.

Stefan Schwitter, the former head of Crypto Finance AG and now the CEO of MAM, said global clients stand to benefit from both firms’ expertise.

Bitcoin’s Bearish September May Be Its Best Since 2013 Ahead of Bullish October

BTC is close to ending September up 9%, its best since 2013, ahead of a seasonally bullish October.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) historically worst month may have be its best one yet, with the asset on track to gain at least 9% this September, beating a trend that’s seen it end in the red eight times since 2013.

And that’s putting the asset on a stronger footing going into October, the start of a generally bullish period with some traders targeting a run to as much as $70,000 in the coming weeks from the current $64,000 levels. A green September has always resulted in bitcoin closing higher in October, November and December.

In contrast to September, there have just been two October months where bitcoin has ended in the red since 2013 – chalking gains of as high as 60% and an average of 22%.

Seasonality is the tendency of assets to experience regular and predictable changes that recur during the calendar year. While it may look random, possible reasons range from profit-taking around tax season in April and May, which causes drawdowns, to the generally bullish “Santa Claus” rally in December, a sign of increased demand.

September has recorded an average value depletion rate of 6.56% in bitcoin, as previously reported, leading to traders being generally defensive about betting on higher prices.

But it gained amid a slew of global monetary easing policies, a weakening yen, increased institutional investments in bitcoin and both political parties in the U.S. – which influence market movements – showing a favorable sentiment toward the crypto market ahead of November elections.

The trend is widely expected to continue.

“With crypto correlations staying high to macro assets, particularly against the SPX, we consider the friendly macro background to remain a strong tailwind for crypto prices into Q4,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.

“Furthermore, with the Kamala camp playing lip service to crypto ‘support’ as part of her campaign rhetoric, we remain bullish on price action in the near term, with targeted put-selling strategies likely to be popular as investors switch into a ‘buy-the-dip’ mode,” he added.