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Binance’s Crypto Market Share Sinks to 4-Year Low

While Binance remains a giant in crypto trading, its volumes dropped over 20% in September versus the previous month, while rival Crypto.com’s surged over 40%.

Crypto exchange giant Binance’s lead over rivals melted to its narrowest in four years as rivals grabbed market share, CCData said in a Thursday report.

Binance handled 36.6% of overall spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized crypto exchanges, the exchange’s worst result since September 2020.

Its spot trading dropped by nearly 23% from August, driving its spot market share down to 27%, the lowest reading since January 2021, the report said. The platform’s derivatives trading also declined 21%, representing a 40.7% market share among centralized exchanges, the lowest level since September 2020.

Binance representatives haven’t returned a request for comment by publishing time.

One of the beneficiaries of Binance’s decline was Crypto.com, which grew its spot and derivatives trading volume by more than 40% on a month-to-month basis, CCData pointed out. Year-to-date, the exchange booked the largest gain in spot trading, increasing its market share to 10.5%.

Overall, trading activity on crypto exchanges waned last month with derivatives and spot trading volumes both falling 17%, the report noted. September historically marks the end of a weak mid-year season in trading, giving way to a busier last quarter, CCData analysts said. “With catalysts such as increased market liquidity following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the upcoming U.S. election, trading activity on centralized exchanges is expected to rise in the coming months,” the authors wrote.

Binance’s waning dominance coincided with increasing regulatory pressure on the exchange.

Last month, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a proposed amended complaint against Binance, scrutinizing the exchange’s token listing practice. It was a follow-up on the regulator’s June 2023 lawsuit, which alleged Binance operated as an unregistered broker, clearinghouse and trading venue, and offered unregistered securities. The exchange agreed to pay a $4.3 billion fine to various U.S. regulators to settle those charges.

The company’s founder and former CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao pleaded guilty and was sentenced to four months in prison for violating the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) by failing to set up adequate know-your-customer (KYC) systems at the trading venue. He was released last week.

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NFT Mania Is Back? Maybe Not, but a CryptoPunk Just Sold for a Record $56.3M

Punk 1563 changed hands for 24,000 ETH, a huge markup versus recent pricing.

A hallmark of the last cryptocurrency bull market was the remarkably high sale prices for various non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

The world has largely moved on from NFTs, with enthusiasm for crypto products embellished with quirky images now directly toward memecoins – so, so many memecoins.

Yet, on Thursday, a sign of bull markets past returned: A CryptoPunk NFT just sold for a record price of $56.3 million. The prior all-time high of $23.7 million was set in February 2022, months before the crypto winter got truly dark.

Punk 1563, depicting a pixelated woman with dark hair and blue eyes, fetched 24,000 ether (ETH) in the transaction. As recently as September, it was offered for sale for less than 30 ETH – meaning the latest deal represented a huge markup versus recent pricing.

NFTs have historically seen all manner of weirdness around sales. There was the time in 2021 when another CryptoPunk technically sold for $532 million, though blockchain data clearly show the same person was on both sides of the trade.

And there have been allegations that NFT were used for money laundering.

It’s not clear what the motivations were for Punk 1563, though.

Bitcoin Dominance Nears 3-Year High Amid Altcoin Weakness; Aptos Outperforms as SUI Drops

Bitcoin held above the $60,000 key support level, while Ethereum’s ETH fell to near its weakest level against BTC since mid-September.

Bitcoin (BTC) once again was teetering above the $60,000 level on Thursday, while smaller cryptocurrencies tumbled amid geopolitical turmoil and the surging U.S. dollar.

BTC rebounded to $61,500 during the Asian trading hours from Wednesday’s very brief dip below $60,000, but turned lower during the European and U.S. sessions. The largest cryptocurrency changed hands around $60,700 recently, up 1% over the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, the broad-market benchmark CoinDesk 20 Index fell 1.5% during the same period, indicating the weakness in the rest of the digital asset market relative to BTC. Ethereum’s ether (ETH) was down 1%, while Ripple’s XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX) and Render (RNDR) led losses among altcoin majors.

One notable outperformer was layer-1 blockchain Aptos’ (APT) native token gaining 7% for the day. Wednesday news of Franklin Templeton expanding its tokenized money market fund to that blockchain may explain that outperformance, while some observers speculated that traders rotated some profits from close competitor network Sui’s (SUI) 110% rally in a month.

Bitcoin’s outperformance over the broader market meant that BTC’s market share of the total crypto market capitalization – also known as Bitcoin Dominance – climbed above 58%, while the ETH-to-BTC ratio dropped near its mid-September trough of 0.038.

“Bitcoin dominance continues to trend higher, and it is now just 0.2% away from a new three-year high,” said James Van Straten, a senior analyst at CoinDesk.

U.S. dollar surging

The overall dismal week for crypto happened with increasing concerns about military escalation in the Middle East, which sent crude oil prices near $74 a barrel, the highest in more than a month, while the U.S. dollar hit its strongest level against key currencies since mid-August.

Thursday’s stronger-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing data also supported dollar strength, which usually weighs on prices for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

“We saw more solid services data from the U.S., which pushed the U.S. dollar index (DXY) closer to 102, giving a 70% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the November meeting,” Van Straten said.

What may have exacerbated dollar strength and the general risk-off move on asset markets in early October is a spike in Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), a key borrowing interest rate between banks that could be a signal of liquidity stress, Steno Research’s Samuel Shiffman noted in a report.

The report added that the situation is reminiscent – albeit on a smaller scale – of the repo crisis in September 2019, when the Federal Reserve was forced to intervene to end dysfunction in key lending markets.

“We are nearing levels where liquidity pain becomes acute,” Shiffman said, adding that the Fed “could feel tempted to address it” by adding liquidity to the financial system.

Another important catalyst for markets will be Friday’s U.S. jobs report. “A combination of expected rate cuts and labor strength could boost risk assets,” crypto hedge fund QCP Capital said.

IMF Urges El Salvador Again to Strengthen Regulatory Framework and Oversight of Bitcoin

The IMF has been asking El Salvador for changes regarding its bitcoin law since its adoption in 2021.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommended on Tuesday that El Salvador narrow the scope of the bitcoin law and strengthen the regulatory framework and oversight of the bitcoin ecosystem.

During a press conference, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack also said that the IMF recommended El Salvador limiting public sector exposure to bitcoin, Reuters reported.

This isn’t the first time IMF has warned El Salvador. Most recently, in August, the IMF said something similar when it declared in a statement that “while many of the risks have not yet materialized, there is joint recognition that further efforts are needed to enhance transparency and mitigate potential fiscal and financial stability risks from the Bitcoin project.” At that time, the IMF also said that “additional discussions in this and other key areas remain necessary.”

In fact, the back-and-forth history between El Salvador and the IMF over bitcoin goes back years. In November 2021, the IMF said that bitcoin should not be used as legal tender in El Salvador and urged the Central American country to strengthen the regulation and supervision of that ecosystem, something it called for again in January 2022.

El Salvador established bitcoin as legal tender in September 2021, being the first country to do so globally. Currently, it holds 5892 BTC, equivalent to about $345 million at today’s price.

Nayib Bukele, El Salvador’s president, recently said his plan to make the country a hotbed for the largest and oldest cryptocurrency has been “net positive” but adoption has fallen short of his expectations.

In Thursday’s presentation, the IMF positively highlighted Bukele’s budget for 2025, which expects the country to be debt-free.

Crypto Payments Firm BCB Group Was the Subject of an FCA Investigation: Sources

The U.K. financial services regulator issued the payments provider a s166 notice late last year. The inquiry is now closed.

BCB Group, a payments processor that links cryptocurrency firms to the banking system, was the subject of a now-closed investigation by the U.K. financial services regulator, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

The Financial Conduct Authority, or FCA, gave BCB a so-called s166 notice late last year, the people said, who spoke on condition of anonymity as the matter is private. The investigation has since been concluded in a way a source close to BCB deemed positive for the company. BCB is in constructive talks with the regulator about expanding its licence, a third person added.

“BCB Group has at all times operated a compliance first approach in its business activities and continues to do so,” said Oliver Tonkin, CEO of BCB, in emailed comments. “We have regular open and transparent dialogue with all our regulators across our licenced businesses and from our perspective we are in good standing with them all. Our engagement with the FCA continues to be positive and we have recently been given the green light to expand our regulatory footprint in the UK should we wish to do so,” he added.

The FCA declined to comment.

Payments companies like BCB are important intermediaries in the digital assets ecosystem, moreso following the collapse of a number of crypto-friendly banks in the U.S. last year. They provide banking rails to some of the biggest institutions in the digital-asset sector, including exchanges such as Bitstamp, Crypto.com, Gemini and Kraken.

It’s not clear what sort of inquiry BCB faced. A s166 review can be triggered by the FCA for a number of reasons. There may be concerns about a company’s regulatory requirements, and whether it is complying with specific rules. The regulator could be worried about potential misconduct issues. The supervisory body may also have concerns about a firm’s risk management processes and its financial stability. If the FCA suspects market abuse or misconduct, it can also launch an investigation.

BCB is not a unique case, as the FCA issues about 50 of these notices to companies in the U.K. every year.

Natasha Powell, the former chief compliance officer at BCB, recently resigned from the business, as reported by CoinDesk. She will be joining crypto exchange Kraken as head of U.K. compliance in November.

Powell will still retain links with BCB, and will continue to support the group as a non-executive director of BCB Payments Ltd., its U.K.-regulated payments business.

The payments processor recently received a takeover approach from an unidentified investor, CoinDesk revealed last month. The buyout interest was initiated by the potential acquirer while BCB was exploring a Series B funding round, according to people familiar with the matter.

Bitcoin Set for Unusually Volatile Weekend After Friday’s Payrolls Data, Volatility Kink Indicates

BTC’s implied volatility curve shows a noticeable kink on Oct. 5, signaling expectations for an unusually volatile Saturday.

The bitcoin (BTC) bull run since October last year has seen mostly quiet weekends, but that’s about to change, according to a key metric.

At press time, bitcoin’s “implied volatility term structure” indicates bigger price swings on Saturday than on days leading up to Oct. 25, according to Deribit options data tracked by Arbelos Markets.

The term structure is a graphical representation of options-determined implied or expected volatilities (IV) at different expiration dates. It is usually upward sloping, with longer duration options trading pricer in terms of implied volatility relative to short duration ones.

However, as of writing, the curve exhibited a kink, with options expiring on Oct. 5 trading at an annualized IV of 51.44%, notably higher than options expiring on Oct. 6, Oct. 11, Oct. 18, and Oct. 25.

In other words, traders are pricing more significant price swings for Saturday, possibly anticipating increased volatility following Friday’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) release and amid geopolitical tensions, according to Joshua Lim, co-founder of Arbelos Markets.

“There’s a very noticeable kink in the vol curve – Friday (Oct. 4) is trading around 39 vol and Saturday (Oct. 5) is trading 51 vol. The market is pricing in a risk premium from nonfarm payrolls data, but more importantly, some probability of an Israeli retaliation post-Rosh Hashanah,” Lim told CoinDesk.

Focus on payrolls

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the NFP on Friday at 12:30 UTC. Per FXStreet, the data is expected to show that the economy added 140,000 jobs in September, following August’s weaker-than-expected increase of 142,000. The jobless rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2%, with the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly earnings matching August’s pace of 3.8%.

According to ING, risks are skewed in favor of hawkish repricing of 25 basis points Fed rate cuts in November and December and dollar strength unless the data misses expectations big margin.

The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points (bps) last month, torching a rally in risk assets, including BTC. Currently, markets expect at least another 50 bps cut by the year-end.

“The pricing for year-end Fed funds continues to largely embed a 50 bps cut in either November or December, meaning room for further re-alignment with the Fed’s less dovish rhetoric and consequently upside risks for the dollar. We sense that the bar for a dollar-negative reaction to U.S. data today and tomorrow is probably higher after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent pushback against 50 bps reductions,” ING said in a note to clients.

A stronger dollar often weighs over risk assets, including BTC and traditional safe havens like gold.

Volatile middle east situation

On Oct 1, Iran fired at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, ratcheting up tensions and risk of a full-blown war and leading to a broad-based risk aversion. BTC dropped over 4% on the same, eventually testing the $60,000 support.

Per ING, investors are now on high alert, awaiting Israel’s retaliation against Iran, leading to a rally in crude prices and a stronger dollar index.

A potential action over the weekend, when traditional markets are closed, could see both traditional and crypto traders express their views in the digital assets market, leading to an unusually volatile weekend.

Bitcoin, Gold Could Benefit From Rising Geopolitical Tension and U.S. Election: JPMorgan

Geopolitical risk and the upcoming U.S. election are likely to reinforce the ‘debasement trade,’ to the benefit of both bitcoin and gold, the report said.

Geopolitical tension and the upcoming U.S. presidential election will likely underpin the ‘debasement trade,’ and this favors both bitcoin (BTC) and gold, JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report on Wednesday.

“A Trump win in particular, apart from being supportive of bitcoin from a regulatory point of view, would likely reinforce the ‘debasement trade’ both via tariffs (geopolitical tensions) and via an expansionary fiscal policy (‘debt debasement’),” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.

Markets aren’t pricing in a victory for the former president just yet. The chances of a Trump election win are currently priced in with a low probability looking at other asset classes other than gold and bitcoin, the report said, adding that this is because investors have been preoccupied with the recession trade in recent months.

If the “Trump trade” plays out in a similar way to 2016, there should be higher U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, U.S. stock market outperformance, in particular banks, and tighter credit spreads, JPMorgan said. This shift has not happened yet, with only a small move higher seen in these markets.

JPMorgan noted that in the six month window around the 2016 American election, 5-year Treasury yields rose 1%, the Dollar Index (DXY) surged 8%, U.S. equities outperformed to the tune of 6%, banks beat the rest of of S&P 500 stock index by 15% and high grade corporate credit spreads tightened significantly.

Bitcoin is not a safe haven against geopolitical risks, investment bank Standard Chartered said in a report yesterday.

Bitcoin ETFs Register Net Outflows for Third Straight Day

Both bitcoin and ether spot ETFs bleed money as geopolitical tensions weigh over risk assets.

The U.S.-listed bitcoin (BTC) and ether {ETH}} spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are doing their part in contributing to the downward price pressures of crypto this week, with bitcoin down 6% and ether down 10%.

Investors drained $54.2 million from bitcoin ETFs on Oct. 3, the third consecutive day of net outflows, taking the three-day tally to $361.2 million, according to Farside Investors.

The main contributions on Thursday were Ark’s ARKB, at $58.0 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC, at $37.2 million. BlackRock’s IBIT saw an inflow of $36.0 million. Grayscale’s GBTC remains relatively muted, with just $5.9 million in outflows this week.

That said, the 11 ETFs have amassed a total of $18.5 billion in investor money since inception. Besides, investors are up on average on their investment around 3-10% with an average deposit cost basis between $54,911 and $59,120, according to Glassnode data.

The methodology used by Glassnode uses price stamping of bitcoin deposits to ETFs for the top three ETF issuers, which provides a rough break-even point for ETF investors. The data suggests, investors in Fidelity’s FBTC has a cost basis of $54,911, Grayscale at $55,943, and BlackRock $59,120.

In 2024, these cost basis have provided excellent price support for bitcoin, testing the lower bound multiple times during bull market corrections.

At the same time, ether ETFs experienced a net outflow of $3.2 million Thursday. Outflows came from Grayscale’s ETHE of $14.7 million, which has now seen a total of $2.9 billion in withdrawals. BlackRock ETHA saw a $12.1 million inflow. Ether ETFs now have a total outflow of $555.4 million, according to Farside Investors data.

Still, the performance of BTC and ETH ETFs is impressive compared to industry standards, according to Nate Geraci, President of the ETF store.

“Out of 525 ETFs launched in 2024, 13 of the top 25 are either bitcoin or ether related,” Geraci said.

As of press time, bitcoin was trading at $61,608, while ether was changing hands at $2,391, according to CoinDesk data.

Attention Bitcoin Bulls, China Stimulus May Have Lost Its Mojo

According to BCA Research, generating large bullish “credit impulses” is now a tough task for China.

China has recently unveiled a raft of stimulus measures, the biggest since 2008, torching a rally in Chinese stocks and risk assets worldwide, including bitcoin. Most crypto analysts expect the Chinese stimulus and the Fed rate cuts to power bitcoin (BTC) to $100,000 in the coming months.

However, BCA Research argues the risk-on rally may not have legs as China’s latest stimulus falls short of generating significant bullish “credit impulses” as it did in the past two decades, including in 2015.

Credit impulse refers to the flow of new credit issued through loans and other debt instruments as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). Since the 2008 crash, analysts have closely tracked China’s credit impulse as a leading indicator of economic growth and risk-on rally worldwide. Renewed upswings in the indicator have historically coincided with bitcoin bear market bottoms.

The credit impulse peaked at 15.5 trillion yuan during the last major bullish easing cycle dated 2015, equating to 15% of the GDP. Back then, the Chinese stocks, represented by the CSI 300, more than doubled in six months and BTC found a bottom near $100, turning higher for a two-year bull run that peaked near $20,000 in December 2017.

Since then, China’s economy has doubled in terms of nominal GDP, which means the credit impulse during the current cycle needs to peak at 27 trillion yuan to have a similar bullish impact on the economy and markets.

However, the most recent peak in the credit impulse was less than 5 trillion yuan. So, to match the 2015 episode, the latest measures would “need an amplitude five times greater than the most recent peak,” BCA Research said in a note to clients on Oct. 2.

Reversing the downtrend in the credit impulse might be easier said than done because factors that drove it higher initially, such as the housing market boom, are no longer present.

“Through 2000-2020, when China’s housing boom was in full swing, it was possible to channel the exponential credit curve into the housing and construction boom, But now, absent an alternative destination for the productive use of credit of the same magnitude, it will be difficult to generate those same monster credit impulses,” BCA’s analysts said.

First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Bounces From $60K

The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Oct. 4, 2024.

This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.

Latest Prices

CoinDesk 20 Index: 1,8691.17 +1.14% Bitcoin (BTC): $61,425.69 +0.92% Ether (ETH): $2,381.70 +0.9% S&P 500: 5,699.94 -0.17% Gold: $2,659.14 +0.13% Nikkei 225: 38,635.62 +0.22%

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Bitcoin’s slow start to its historically most bullish month continued late Thursday with a brief dip below $60,000 only to show signs of a rally ahead of the weekend. The cryptocurrency traded at around $61,300 during the European morning, an increase of just under 1% in the last 24 hours. The broader digital asset market has risen by about 1.15%, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index. BTC is down around 6% since the start of October and bitcoin ETFs have registered net outflows on all three days of the month so far. This is despite its reputation as being BTC’s most bullish month, with average gains of 22% since 2013.

Despite October’s reputation for being a fertile month for BTC surges, data shows that most gains don’t arrive until the second half of the month. The second and third days of October have ended in green just six times since 2013 before recovering in the second week, and large movements are generally in the third week, CoinGlass data show. Price jumps of as high as 16% generally appear after Oct. 15. However, this year bitcoin bulls must also consider the macroeconomic factors weighing on risk assets. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have seen investor sentiment shift toward oil and gold.

Geopolitical tension and the upcoming U.S. presidential election will likely underpin the ‘debasement trade,’ and this favors both bitcoin and gold, JPMorgan said in a research report on Wednesday. “A Trump win in particular, apart from being supportive of bitcoin from a regulatory point of view, would likely reinforce the ‘debasement trade’ both via tariffs (geopolitical tensions) and via an expansionary fiscal policy (‘debt debasement’),” analysts wrote. If the “Trump trade” plays out in a similar way to 2016, there should be higher U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, U.S. stock market outperformance, in particular banks, and tighter credit spreads, JPMorgan said. This shift has not happened yet, with only a small move higher seen in these markets.

Chart of the Day

– Omkar Godbole