Prizmabet

Monero Nears Major Supply Zone at $180: Technical Analysis

XMR has been locked in a range with $180 as resistance and $100 as a price floor for over two years.

Monero (XMR), the leading privacy-focused cryptocurrency, is rising toward a critical level that has repeatedly marked bull failure for over two years.

Since June 2022, XMR has been trading sideways, with multiple attempts to break above $180 leading to sharp pullbacks. The downside has been restricted to nearly $100, according to the charting platform TradingView.

The cryptocurrency’s struggle to maintain bullish momentum beyond $180 suggests traders have been offloading their holdings when it nears that level. With XMR now changing hands near $175, traders should closely watch for a repeat of a bearish reversal lower or a potential breakout.

Markets accumulate energy during consolidation phases, which is released in the direction of the eventual bullish breakout or bearish breakdown. The longer the consolidation, the bigger the buildup and eventual release.

A sustained move above $180 would shift focus to resistance at $260, which is identified by adding the height ($80) of the two-year trading range to the breakout price of $180. This method of arriving at potential price objectives/resistance levels is known as the measured move/height method, according to technical analysis theory.

XMR crashed 35% to $100 in February after Binance, the leading cryptocurrency exchange, delisted the token, saying it didn’t meet the exchange’s standard. Prices saw a brief rally in June after some European countries cracked down on botnet mining.

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Digital Asset Funds See Second Consecutive Week of Inflows: CoinShares

Bitcoin-linked products led with $284 million of inflows, while their ether equivalents saw outflows of $29 million.

Digital asset investment products experienced a second straight week of inflows, adding a net $321 million, according to crypto asset manager CoinShares.

CoinShares attributes the performance to the 50 basis-point interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the first time the U.S. central bank has reduced the cost of borrowing in four years.

Bitcoin (BTC)-linked products led the inflows with $284 million, while their ether (ETH) equivalents saw outflows of $29 million. This was the fifth consecutive week that ETH products registered outflows, even as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value led gains after the Fed move.

“This is due to persistent outflows from the incumbent Grayscale Trust and scant inflows from the newly issued ETFs,” CoinShares wrote on Monday.

Ether exchange-traded funds have consistently underperformed bitcoin ETFs since they listed in the U.S. in July. Their first five weeks of trading saw $500 million of outflows, while their BTC counterparts had experienced more than $5 billion of inflows during their first five weeks.

JPMorgan attributed the disparity to bitcoin’s “first mover advantage,” the lack of staking provision in ETH products and lower liquidity making them less appealing to institutional investors.

First Mover Americas: BTC, ETH Rise in Muted Trading to Start the Week

The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Sept. 23, 2024.

This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.

Latest Prices

CoinDesk 20 Index: 1992.83 +1.03% Bitcoin (BTC): $63,453.28 +1.27% Ether (ETH): $2,645.83 +2.62% S&P 500: 5,702.55 +0.19% Gold: $2,622.99 +0.1% Nikkei 225: 37,723.91 +1.53%

Top Stories

Major cryptocurrencies made cautious gains to start the week, with BTC around 1.3% higher over 24 hours at just under $63,500. Ether outperformed bitcoin, rising 2.7% to $2,650, while the broader digital asset market is up just under 1.1%, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index. Data from CoinGlass shows that in the last 12 hours, slightly more short positions than longs have been liquidated, with $64.23 million in short positions and $54.42 million in longs being liquidated. Trading is likely light in the aftermath of last week’s 50 basis-point interest-rate cut in the U.S. BTC is up 9.5% in the past seven days while ETH is up over 16%.

Digital asset investment products experienced a second straight week of inflows, adding a net $321 million, according to CoinShares. The crypto asset manager attributes the performance to the 50 basis-point interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin-linked products led the inflows with $284 million, while their ether equivalents saw outflows of $29 million. This was the fifth consecutive week that ETH products registered outflows, even as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value led gains after the Fed’s rate cut. “This is due to persistent outflows from the incumbent Grayscale Trust and scant inflows from the newly issued ETFs,” CoinShares wrote.

Core Scientific is on the cusp of becoming a major force in AI hosting, broker Canaccord has said in a report. Canaccord started coverage of the crypto mining company with a buy rating and a $16 price target. The shares were 1.4% higher at $12.15 in early trading. Canaccord identified three positive drivers for the stock: “Ramping revenue in AI hosting, better cash flow and potentially more site acquisitions on the way,” analysts led by Joseph Vafi wrote.The company also has potential upside from mining. It still has about 230 megawatts (MW) of power that can be used for bitcoin mining, even after repurposing almost 500MW for AI hosting, the report noted.

Chart of the Day

– Omkar Godbole

Sygnum Unit Receives Liechtenstein License as a Crypto Asset Service Provider

The registration paves the way for the Switzerland and Singapore-based banking group to expand into the European Union and European Economic Area.

Sygnum said it obtained a crypto license from Liechtenstein, paving the way for the Zurich and Singapore-based digital assets banking group to expand into the European Union under the bloc’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).

The bank’s subsidiary in the country received a license allowing it to offer regulated digital assets services, including brokerage, custody and banking.

Sygnum joins companies like Coinbase, Circle and others preparing to expand in Europe as MiCA takes effect. MiCA is a bespoke set of rules for the crypto industry that enables companies licensed in one country to operate across all 27 member states as well as countries like Liechtenstein that are in the European Economic Area. Switzerland is a member of neither.

MiCA’s stablecoin rules came into effect in June, with other regulations likely to come into force by December. EU countries have started accepting registrations for their respective crypto-asset service provider (CASP) regimes.

“The registration as CASP in Liechtenstein paves the way for a significant expansion of our regulated footprint into the EU, the world’s largest trading bloc,” said Martin Burgherr, Sygnum’s chief clients officer.

Bitcoin Could Surge Thanks to Looser Financial Conditions

A less-widely followed report from the Chicago Fed indicated the easiest conditions since November 2021.

The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) offers a weekly update on U.S. financial conditions across money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and shadow banking systems. The NFCI is a valuable tool for assessing the health of financial markets, providing insights into liquidity, credit availability, and market risk. The index is structured so that a negative NFCI value indicates looser-than-average financial conditions, suggesting an environment where liquidity is more readily available. Conversely, a positive value indicates tighter-than-average conditions, where access to capital becomes more restrictive.

For the week ending Sept. 13, the NFCI registered at -0.56, indicating that financial conditions eased even further from the already looser than average level of the previous week. This level of financial ease hasn’t been seen since November 2021, a period during which bitcoin (BTC) reached its 2021 cycle high of $69,000.

A noteworthy analysis on the relationship between the NFCI and bitcoin was recently shared by Fejau, host of the Forward Guidance Podcast. In an X thread, Fejau pointed out the negative correlation between the NFCI and bitcoin, arguing that looser financial conditions often act as a tailwind for risky assets. According to Fejau, when financial conditions loosen, easing increases, leading to a risk-on environment where speculative assets, including bitcoin, tend to rally.

Fejau’s analysis traces this negative correlation across several market cycles. In 2013, as financial conditions eased, bitcoin surged from around $100 in July to over $1,000 by November. This coincided with the NFCI index registering a low of around -0.80, indicating significantly looser than average financial conditions.

Similarly, in 2017-2018, the loosening of financial conditions coincided with bitcoin’s dramatic rise from $2,000 to $20,000 in just six months at the end of 2017. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, financial conditions tightened significantly—the most restrictive since 2009—leading to a crash in both traditional risk assets and bitcoin.

Most recently, Fejau notes that as financial conditions have loosened over the past twelve months, bitcoin has once again surged, climbing from $25,000 to over $73,000 in March 2024 even before global central banks started to cut interest rates. Which shows financial conditions have been loose for the past twelve months.

This relationship is not entirely straightforward, with other factors like the DXY index (a measure of the U.S. dollar’s strength) also influencing bitcoin’s trajectory. A rising DXY tends to have negative implications for bitcoin, as a stronger dollar makes speculative assets less attractive.

As financial conditions continue to ease, the outlook for bitcoin and other speculative investments could remain positive, provided other economic factors remain supportive.

Cat-Themed Memecoins Emerge as Preferred Risk On Bets With 40% Surge in a Week

Cat-themed tokens have emerged as a new cohort alongside dog-themed Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, among the biggest gainers in the 2020-2021 bull run.

Cat-themed memecoins aren’t just meowing but roaring back in an indication of risk-on sentiment starting to return to the broader crypto market.

Tokens such as Solana-based POPCAT, cat in a dog’s world (MEW), Ethereum-based MOG, and BNB Chain-based Simon’s Cat (CAT) have climbed up to 40% in a one-week period, with a bulk of gains coming since Wednesday when the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points for the first time in four years – fuelling prices of risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC).

Popcat, a token tied to a meme of a cat with its mouth popped open, is nearing $1 billion market cap. Culture coin mog has jumped 70% in the past two weeks amid its strong cult following on social platforms, where the community often replies to posts with “mogging” and “mogged” to improve its visibility.

The newly released CAT has quickly climbed to become one of the biggest cat memes, seeing over $145 million in exchange bets in the past 24 hours. The token is officially tied to the Simon’s Cat comic series.

Since early 2023, meme tokens have been increasingly seen as a leveraged way to bet on the growth of their underlying blockchains, and crypto traders refer to them as beta bets.

Cat-themed tokens have emerged as a new cohort alongside dog-themed Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB), among the biggest gainers in the 2020-2021 bull run.

Their relatively smaller total market capitalization makes cat memes a stronger attraction than their dog-themed counterparts: The dog memes sector tracked by CoinGecko shows a 4% average gain in the past 24 hours, compared to a 14% bump on cat tokens.

Some market makers expect memecoins, alongside alternative tokens, to continue surging in the coming months.

“Memecoins are experiencing a surge largely due to the anticipation of increased liquidity following the Federal Reserve’s recent 0.5% interest rate cut,” Alex Andryunin, founder of Gotbit Hedge Fund, known for backing memecoinds, said in a message to CoinDesk. “Market expectations for lower rates have converged, and with the prospect of more liquidity entering the financial system, investors are adopting a bullish sentiment.”

“We anticipate that the memecoin market could grow significantly over the next two months. The increased liquidity and a heightened appetite for risk may drive investors toward these high-risk, high-reward assets, potentially leading to a boom similar to previous cycles,” Andryunin added.

Bitcoin, Gold May Be Sensing Monetary Debasement as Records Beckon

With both assets leading the market, here’s a closer look at the factors driving their remarkable performance.

In the past five days, bitcoin (BTC) has surged 7%, breaking through $64,000 for the first time since Aug. 26. Gold, for its part, has reached all-time highs on over 30 occasions this year, topping $2,600 an ounce. These remarkable performances mark the first time since bitcoin’s inception in 2009 that both are the top-performing assets of the year, according to Charlie Bilello, the chief market strategist at Creative Planning, an investment management and financial planning firm.

Year-to-date, gold has risen 27%, surpassing its 2020 performance of 25%. The last time it did better was 2007. What is driving this impressive rise?

Gold has historically been seen as a hedge against monetary debasement and global uncertainty, and current economic conditions suggest it is again fulfilling this role. The recent surge in gold prices can be attributed to these factors. Notably, gold began its rally before the significant monetary debasement triggered by the Covid pandemic in 2020, while bitcoin emerged as a star performer in late 2020 and into 2021. With bitcoin now just 14% away from its all-time high, is it playing catch-up once again?

A closer examination reveals that bitcoin’s price tends to move in line with the Federal Reserve’s net liquidity metric. This measure, calculated by subtracting reverse repo and the Treasury General Account from the Fed’s balance sheet, indicates that bitcoin tends to follow liquidity trends.

Both bitcoin and net liquidity bottomed out toward the end of 2022, coinciding with the FTX collapse. Since then, bitcoin has steadily risen alongside an increase in net liquidity, which now exceeds $6 trillion.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is currently at $7.1 trillion, and although it is still engaging in quantitative tightening, the pace has slowed. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023 led to a $1.6 trillion reduction in the balance sheet, bringing it back to levels seen during the initial phases of quantitative easing in response to the pandemic.

The draining of reverse repo balances, now just over $300 billion, releases liquidity back into the financial system. This is stimulative, increasing the availability of funds for lending, investment, and overall economic activity.

Looking more broadly, the combined balance sheets of the world’s 15 largest central banks – including the U.S., European Union, Japan and China – approach $31 trillion.

While this number alone is not the focus, the trend shows a global resurgence in central bank balance sheets from about $30 trillion in July. This increase in liquidity is particularly stimulative for bitcoin, which tends to mirror liquidity trends.

Adding to this, just Wednesday the Fed cut the interest rate by 50 basis points, further supporting the rise of bitcoin and gold.

First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Tests $64K as BoJ Pauses Rate Hikes

The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Sept. 20, 2024.

This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.

Latest Prices

CoinDesk 20 Index: 2,000.30 +3.89%

Bitcoin (BTC): $63,503.69 +1.57%

Ether (ETH): $2,544.28 +4.77%

S&P 500: 5,713.64 +1.7%

Gold: $2,611.84 +0.95%

Nikkei 225: 37,723.91 +1.53%

Top Stories

Bitcoin rose above $64,000 during the Asian morning as the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged in a positive signal for risk assets. It subsequently pared some of its gains to settle around $63,500, 1.9% higher in the last 24 hours.The BoJ’s move avoided a repeat of its rate hike in July, which caused a slide in crypto markets. Traders observed that macroeconomic data is a source of optimism for riskier assets like BTC. “The US 2Y/10Y treasury spread, an indicator of recession, has been inverted since July 2022 but has recently steepened to +8bps,” QCP Capital traders said in a market broadcast Friday. “This reflects market optimism and a shift towards risk-on assets.”

Ether may be about to shine after underperforming against the wider crypto market this year, according to a new report by Steno Research. ETH has gained around 8% this year, compared with BTC’s 40%. However, ether’s performance during the last bull market could provide some clues as to what to expect now. ETH surged thanks to greater onchain activity from DeFi, stablecoin issuance and NFTs. The Federal Reserve interest-rate cut earlier this week will result in increased onchain activity, which will strongly benefit Ethereum, Steno said. “Ethereum’s active addresses remain strong, particularly when factoring in the growing adoption of rollups,” analyst Mads Eberhardt wrote, adding that the network’s transactional revenue looks to have bottomed in August.

More than 250 “Satoshi era” BTC moved on Friday, in a rare instance of bitcoin mined in the cryptocurrency’s early days becoming active. The Satoshi era refers to the period between 2009 and 2011, when bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto was active in the community before disappearing. The bitcoin were transferred in transactions of 50 BTC to new wallets during the European morning, on-chain tracker Whale Alerts flagged on X. Several “Satoshi era” bitcoin have been active in the past few years. In July 2023, a wallet dormant for 11 years transferred $30 million worth of the asset to other wallets, and in August, another wallet transferred 1,005 BTC to a new address.

Chart of the Day

– James Van Straten

YouTube Page of India’s Supreme Court Hacked to Promote XRP

The channel streams hearings of notable court cases but temporarily showed promotional videos of XRP and Ripple Labs before being taken down.

The YouTube channel of India’s Supreme Court was compromised on Friday in a first such incident for the judicial body.

The channel, which otherwise streams court cases for viewers and the press, showed videos promoting XRP tokens. Its name was changed to “Ripple.live24.”

A blank video titled “Brad Garlinghouse: Ripple Responds To The SEC’s $2 Billion Fine! XRP PRICE PREDICTION” went live on the channel in the European morning hours. The video and the channel were taken down shortly afterward.

“This is to inform all concerned that the YouTube channel of Supreme Court of India has been taken down. The services on YouTube channel of Supreme Court of India will be resumed shortly,” the Supreme Court said in a statement shared with local media companies.

The compromise came ahead of several crucial cases scheduled for Friday, the Times of India reported.

MicroStrategy Boosts Bitcoin Holdings With $458M Purchase, Upsized Convertible Note Offering to $1B

With the latest acquisition, the company now holds 252,220 bitcoin worth nearly $16 billion at current prices.

Nasdaq-listed software company MicroStrategy (MSTR) said Friday that it purchased 7,420 bitcoin (BTC) for about $458.2 million using the proceeds of its debt offering. The acquisition happened between Sept. 13 and 19 at an average BTC price of approximately $61,750.

The company increased its convertible note issuance that concluded Thursday to $1.01 billion from the $700 million principal offering announced earlier this week, according to a Friday filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The company, led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, has been a pioneer for bitcoin adoption as a corporate treasury asset, and has become the largest corporate holder of BTC since it started buying in 2020. With the latest purchase, the firm now holds 252,220 bitcoin worth nearly $16 billion at current prices, acquiring at an average BTC price of $39,266 for a total cost of $9.9 billion.

MicroStrategy’s shares were down 1.5% from Thursday’s market closing price, with U.S. equity indices and BTC also sliding lower.

Other public companies such as Semler Scientific, miner Marathon Digital and Japanese investment adviser Metaplanet recently have followed MicroStrategy’s footprints to issue debt to accumulate BTC.

James van Straten contributed to the reporting.