Prizmabet

Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $242.6M, Biggest Outflow Since Sept. 3

The outflows snapped an eight-day winning streak as BTC lost as much as 6% amid an acute heightening of tensions in the Middle East.

Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. saw outflows of $242.6 million on Tuesday in their worst day since Sept. 3, according to data from SoSoValue.

The outflows snapped an eight-day streak of inflows as BTC lost as much as 6% amid an acute sharpening of tensions in the Middle East that saw Iran fire around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday. The strike followed Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah, designated a terror group by more than 60 jurisdictions including the U.S., European Union and Arab League, in Lebanon in recent weeks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate.

Bitcoin fell to a low of $60,300, erasing almost all of its gains since the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut last month, signaling an inauspicious start to “Uptober,” the community’s affectionate name for the calendar month that has historically seen the highest gains for BTC. The largest cryptocurrency has lost 2.6% since the start of the month, CoinDesk Indices data show.

Ether ETFs also suffered on Tuesday with outflows of $48.5 million, the worst day since Sept. 23.

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Grayscale’s High ETF Fee Keeps the Cash Flowing In Even as Investors Withdraw

Grayscale’s fee revenue from GBTC is nearly five times higher than BlackRock’s from IBIT even after a 50% decline in assets under management.

Grayscale’s bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) is reaping higher income than its rivals even as investors flee the vehicle for lower-cost options.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), with almost $14 billion in assets under management (AUM), is earning about $205 million a year, CoinDesk calculations show. The figure is roughly five times larger than at rival BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), with $17 billion in AUM, which is raking in just $42.5 million.

The discrepancy is mainly down to fees, known as the expense ratio. Before the funds opened for trading on Jan. 11, operators jostling for customers started a price war that saw most settling on an expense ratio below 0.40%. GBTC, which existed as a trust before converting to an ETF, stood out, cutting the ratio just half a percentage point to 1.5%.

That compares with 0.20% at Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), the lowest among the five biggest issuers by assets under management. Ark 21 Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) went to 0.21% while IBIT and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) set it at 0.25%.

Even as investors have withdrawn funds in search of platforms with lower expense ratios, GBTC’s head start means the cash is still flowing in. In January, it had AUM of $29 billion, according to YCharts, a financial analysis platform, and roughly 600,000 bitcoin.

The figure’s shrunk to $13.65 billion, based on multiplying net assets value (NAV) per share of $49.12 by the 278 million shares outstanding. It now holds about 220,000 bitcoin. IBIT, which holds 366,000 bitcoin, has 642 million shares outstanding and a NAV per share value of $35.13, giving AUM of $17 billion.

Neither Grayscale nor BlackRock responded to an email requesting comment that was sent before U.S. business hours.

First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Returns to $61K After Tuesday’s Dump

The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Oct. 2, 2024.

This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.

Latest Prices

CoinDesk 20 Index: 1,937.99 -6.61%

Bitcoin (BTC): $61,262.66 -3.99%

Ether (ETH): $2,459.36 -6.58%

S&P 500: 5,708.75 -0.93%

Gold: $2,651.59 -0.33%

Nikkei 225: 37,808.76 -2.18%

Top Stories

Bitcoin reclaimed $61,000 after dropping as low as $60,300 on Tuesday amid an acute sharpening of tensions in the Middle East. Iran fired around 200 ballistic missiles in retaliation for Israel’s recent attacks on Hezbollah, designated a terror group by more than 60 countries and organizations. Polymarket bettors are giving a 49% chance that Israel will retaliate against Iran by the end of the week. Bitcoin’s slide dented hopes of a rally to kick off October, a traditionally bullish month for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. BTC is currently over 4% lower in the last 24 hours, while the broader digital asset market has lost 6%, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index.

Some observers have noted the differing performances of bitcoin and gold as a measurement of the two assets’ respective maturities. Gold, traditionally seen as a risk-off asset, gained 0.8% in the aftermath of Iran’s attack on Israel while BTC lost 4%, despite often being referred to as a form of digital gold. “Gold is a much more mature asset, with a 5,000 year history as a store of value, so there’s not much room left for incremental network effects,” Presto Research said. “BTC [has] only a 15-year history. This means it’s in the early stages of mainstream adoption, and its narrative is still poorly understood.” At the time of writing, gold is 0.3% lower in the last 24 hours at $2,652.56 per ounce.

Crypto futures saw over $450 million in long liquidations in the past 24 hours as the bitcoin plunge led to losses among major tokens. CoinGlass data shows that bitcoin traders betting on higher prices lost more than $122 million, while bets on ether lost nearly $100 million. Smaller altcoins recorded over $85 million in liquidations – the most since July – with memecoin PEPE posting an unusually high $10 million. The data shows that nearly 86% of all futures bets were bullish. Traders were positioning for higher prices in the weeks ahead as October traditionally favors BTC, with negative returns only twice since 2013.

Chart of the Day

– Omkar Godbole

Short-Term Holders Send $3B in Bitcoin to Exchanges at a Loss as Mideast Tensions Rise

Geopolitical tensions triggered consecutive daily declines of almost 4% in bitcoin’s price.

In the past two days, Sept. 30-Oct. 1, bitcoin (BTC) registered consecutive declines of 3.7% as geopolitical tensions ramped up in the Middle East, culminating in Iran’s 200 ballistic- missile attack on Israel on Tuesday.

With the largest cryptocurrency little changed on Wednesday, this year marks the worst-ever start to an October, a month that’s historically provided positive returns.

One headwind comes from so-called short-term holders, which Glassnode defines as investors who have held bitcoin for less than 155 days. This is a group that tends to panic-sell when the BTC price drops below their cost basis. Glassnode data shows this cohort has bought roughly 100,000 bitcoin since Sept. 19, when bitcoin was trading at $62,000.

By Sept. 27, bitcoin had surged to above $66,000, and, as the chart shows, this group was buying aggressively as the price increased. However, they started dumping their holdings as the price started to fall.

In the past two days, short-term holders have sent roughly 64,000 bitcoin to exchanges, the equivalent of $4 billion. Of that, some $3 billion was sent at a loss, meaning it was sent when the price was lower than the entity’s average on-chain acquisition price.

This is the highest amount of loss sent to exchanges by the group since Aug. 5, during the yen carry trade unwind, which saw $2.5 billion of losses sent in one day.

Long-term holders, on the other hand, seem to be holding their nerve. As a group, they sent just 100 bitcoin at a loss to exchanges over the same time frame.

Franklin Templeton Adds Aptos Blockchain to Support Tokenized Money Market Fund

The $435 million fund is also available on Avalanche, Arbitrum, Stellar and Polygon.

Meta’nın geliştirdiği ve artık üretilmeyen Diem (eski adıyla Libra) blok zincirinden esinlenerek geliştirilen 1. Katman blok zinciri Aptos (APT), yatırımcıların Franklin Templeton’ın OnChain ABD Hükümet Para Piyasası Fonu (FOBXX) hisselerini alıp satabilecekleri en yeni ağ haline geldi.

Piyasadaki en büyük ikinci tokenize fon olan ve 435 milyon dolarlık piyasa değerine sahip olan fon, halihazırda Ethereum’da Arbitrum, Stellar ve Polygon’un yanı sıra Avalanche üzerinden de mevcut.

Franklin’in son eklemesi, Aptos’un, şirketin blok zinciriyle entegre kayıt tutma sistemi olan Benji platformu için varlık yöneticisinin titiz uygunluk standartlarını da karşılayan benzersiz özelliklerinden kaynaklanıyor, dedi Franklin Templeton’daki dijital varlıklar başkanı Roger Bayston. Bir Benji tokeni, fonun bir hissesini temsil ediyor.

Aptos, 2022 yılında piyasaya sürülen oldukça genç bir Layer 1 blok zinciridir. Daha hızlı ve daha korumalı işlemlere olanak sağladığını iddia ettiği Move programlama dilini kullanır.

Blockchain’in geliştiricisi olan Aptos Labs, uzun zamandır diğer 1. Katman blockchain’lerinde olduğu gibi, merkezi olmayan finans (DeFi) ile büyük, geleneksel kurumlar arasındaki boşluğu kapatmayı misyon edinmiştir.

Şirket, nisan ayında Microsoft, Brevan Howard ve Güney Koreli telekomünikasyon operatörü SK Telecom ile ortaklık kurarak kurumların merkezi olmayan finans alanında deney yapmasını kolaylaştırmaya başladı.

Aptos Vakfı Hibe ve Ekosistem Başkanı Bashar Lazaar, “Franklin Templeton’ın gerçek anlamda merkezi olmayan ve erişilebilir bir finansal gelecek adına yenilik yapma isteği ilham verici” dedi.

“Bu geleceğe ulaşmak için sadece TradFi ve DeFi dünyalarını değil, EVM ve EVM dışı ağları da birbirine bağlamamız gerekiyor. Benji Investments platformunu Aptos Network ile entegre etmek doğru yönde atılmış büyük bir adım ve onları Aptos ekosistemine davet etmeyi dört gözle bekliyoruz” dedi.

Christie’s to Offer Blockchain-Based Ownership Certificates for Photography Collection

Wednesday’s sale of “An Eye Towards the Real: Photographs from the Collection of Ambassador Trevor Traina,” in New York will see digital certificates issued for each of the 130 lots, which will be minted by Kresus on Base.

Christie’s is again experimenting with blockchain-based technology by issuing digital certificates of ownership for a photograph collection by Trevor Traina, the founder of wallet provider Kresus and former U.S. ambassador to Austria.

The auction house’s sale of “An Eye Towards the Real: Photographs from the Collection of Ambassador Trevor Traina,” on Wednesday at the Rockefeller Center in New York will issue digital certificates for each of the 130 lots. The ownership certificates will be minted by Kresus on Base, the Ethereum layer-2 blockchain developed by Coinbase (COIN).

“This pilot program marks a significant step forward in the art world’s adoption of blockchain technology, aligning physical works with digital certificates to ensure transparency and security for art collectors,” Christie’s and Kresus said in an emailed announcement on Wednesday.

Christie’s involvement in blockchain-based innovations goes back to 2021, when it auctioned digital artist Beeple’s “Everyday” collection for $69 million, at the time the most expensive non-fungible token (NFT) ever sold.

Bitwise Makes XRP ETF Plans Official With SEC Filing

The asset manager’s S-1 comes a day after it registered a trust entity with the state of Delaware.

Bitwise, dünyanın en büyük kripto paraları arasında yer alan Ripple ile ilişkili token olan XRP’ye (XRP) bağlı bir borsa yatırım fonu başlatmak için büyük bir adım attı.

Varlık yöneticisi Çarşamba günü, yeni bir menkul kıymet ihraç etmek ve halka açık bir borsada listelenmek isteyen şirketler için bir gereklilik olan S-1 formunu ABD Menkul Kıymetler ve Borsa Komisyonu’na sundu .

“Bugün bir Bitwise XRP ETP için S-1 başvurusunda bulunduk!” diye yazdı Bitwise CEO’su Hunter Horsley, X’te yazdığı bir gönderide. “ XRP, on yıldan uzun bir süredir birçok yatırımcının maruz kalmak istediği kalıcı bir kripto varlık olmuştur.”

Bu hamle, Bitwise’ın Delaware eyaletinde “XRP ETF” adlı bir güven kuruluşu kaydettirmesinden bir gün sonra geldi; birçok şirket tüzel kişiliklerini bu eyalette listeliyor ve kripto ETF ihraççıları, Delaware başvuruları aracılığıyla planlarını birden fazla kez bildirdi.

CoinDesk verilerine göre XRP, 33 milyar dolarlık piyasa değeriyle yedinci en büyük kripto para birimidir . Daha büyük rakipleri olan bitcoin (BTC) ve Ethereum’un ether’i (ETH), bu yılın başından beri yatırımcılara geleneksel finans alanında oldukça popüler bir ürün türü olan ETF olarak sunulmaktadır.

S-1 başvurusunun sunulması bir fonun tanıtımında ilk adım olsa da, yatırım fonunun listelenmesini isteyen borsada gerekli kural değişikliğini işaret etmek için gereken 19b-4 adı verilen başka bir başvurunun ardından sunulmadığı takdirde belgenin temelde hiçbir anlamı yoktur.

SEC’in başvuruyu onaylama veya reddetme kararını katı bir zaman çizelgesine bağlayan 19b-4’ün aksine, düzenleyicinin S-1’e yanıt verme yükümlülüğü bulunmuyor; bu da Bitwise’ın onay almasının yıllar alabileceği anlamına geliyor.

Örneğin VanEck, 2021’de bir ether ETF’si başlatmak için S-1 başvurusunda bulundu , ancak fon üç yıl sonra, Temmuz 2024’e kadar piyasaya sürülmedi .

Ancak Bitwise’ın XRP’yi takip eden bir fon oluşturma çabası “son derece dikkat çekici” dedi sektör uzmanlarından biri ve ETF Store başkanı Nate Geraci Salı günkü dosyaya yanıt olarak.

“Bitwise, duvara bir şeyler fırlatmayan, son derece güvenilir bir kripto-yerel fon firmasıdır” diye ekledi.

U.S. Election Betting: Court Ends Pause on Kalshi’s Congressional Contracts

The CFTC “has failed to demonstrate that it or the public will suffer irreparable injury absent a stay pending appeal,” an appeals court said, clearing the prediction market to resume listing the contracts.

With a month to go before the U.S. election, prediction market Kalshi just got cleared to resume listing its contracts on which party will control each house of Congress.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia denied a motion by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to halt the contracts pending the agency’s appeal of the case it lost to Kalshi in a lower court last month.

“The Commission has failed to demonstrate that it or the public will suffer irreparable injury absent a stay pending appeal, and therefore its motion for a stay is denied without prejudice to renewal should substantiating evidence arise,” wrote Circuit Judge Patricia Millett. “The administrative stay is hereby dissolved.”

Following its long-sought victory in the lower court, Kalshi listed the contracts on Sept. 13. They traded for only a few hours before the appeals court granted an administrative stay, which it lifted Tuesday.

Kalshi, the sole U.S.-regulated prediction market, sued the CFTC last year after the agency denied the exchange’s application to list election contracts, on the grounds that they constituted gaming and would be contrary to the public interest.

While it’s been fighting the agency in court, the New York-based company, which settles bets in dollars, has watched crypto-powered rival Polymarket, which is barred from doing business in the U.S., nevertheless rack up record volumes during this election year. Over $1 billion alone has been staked on Polymarket’s contract on who will win the presidency.

A Kalshi spokesperson told CoinDesk the company did not yet have a timetable for resuming listing the contracts, but that it would “very soon.”

Crypto at a Pivotal Moment

The U.S. election combined with an easier monetary environment could spark the next crypto bull market, says David Lawant.

Seismic events often trigger crypto-asset market cycle transitions. The 2016-2017 cycle was largely industry-driven, expanding crypto’s reach beyond early adopters. In contrast, the 2020-2021 surge was propelled by unprecedented COVID-era interest rate cuts.

Now, two powerful catalysts converge: the looming 2024 U.S. elections and a nascent global liquidity cycle for risk assets. This potent combination could shatter bitcoin’s $58,000 to $70,000 trading range, where it has largely remained since late March, potentially igniting the next major market movement.

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2024 U.S. elections likely to gain importance as election day nears

This election cycle marks several firsts for crypto, primarily how the industry emerged as a relevant topic in political discourse and campaign financing. Another interesting trend is how Polymarket, a breakthrough crypto application, now provides real-time estimates of consensus on election results, with over $1 billion at stake.

The chart below shows the relationship between two factors over 3-day periods: changes in Republican win odds on Polymarket and changes in bitcoin prices as a proxy for overall crypto market performance. Different election phases are color-coded: gray for the initial phase (before June 26), red for the period of Republican momentum (between the end of June and the end of July), blue for Democratic gains (between the end of July and mid-August), and black for the final stretch (since mid-August).

If the market linked crypto prices directly to Republican win odds, the dots in the chart above would form an upward-sloping 45-degree line. Conversely, a direct link to Democratic win odds would show a similar, but downward-sloping, line. Instead, we see a scattered cloud of dots, indicating no clear, consistent trend between election outcomes and crypto prices so far.

This dynamic is evident across all phases highlighted in different colors throughout the scatterplot. Although the relationship is stronger during the phase of Republican momentum, it still explains less than 20% of bitcoin price movements.

This doesn’t mean the elections are unimportant for crypto price action. It is possible, if not likely, that this relationship strengthens as we approach Election Day, now less than one month away. But this inconsistent relationship suggests that other critical factors have also been dominating crypto market price action.

Interest rate outlook hints at novel regime for crypto prices

Recent global liquidity shifts have driven markets worldwide, including crypto. The Federal Reserve’s strong start to this rate-cut cycle, coupled with China’s surprising market-lifting measures, likely fueled crypto’s recent price surge.

Unlike equities, crypto lacks extensive historical data for gauging returns across different interest rate regimes.

Nevertheless, examining crypto prices against rate environments remains instructive. The chart below shows the effective federal funds rate alongside Treasury constant-maturity yields from 1-year to 30-year tenors. For context, the lower chart displays bitcoin’s USD price (in log scale for perspective), with color-coded market cycles: green for the 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 bull markets, red for the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.

This chart suggests that a soft landing with lower rates — the current investor consensus — would create an unprecedented macro backdrop for crypto. This scenario differs from both the industry-driven 2016-2017 cycle and the COVID era, rate-cut-fueled, 2020-2021 surge.

Consequently, macroeconomic factors are expected to significantly influence crypto prices in the near term, as evidenced by strengthening correlations between crypto and broader risk assets.

Looking ahead

Low crypto liquidity following Labor Day indicates a market in wait-and-see mode. While factors such as geopolitical tensions and supply/demand imbalances can still influence the market, two primary drivers most likely to define market direction into 2025 are still the upcoming election and global liquidity conditions. The next one to three months will be crucial in revealing how these trends will unfold.

Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.

The Rise of Index Investing in Crypto

Despite undeniable growth, crypto remains volatile, posing challenges for even seasoned investors. An increasingly popular solution to navigating these risks is crypto index investing, says Julien Vallet, CEO, Finst.

Cryptocurrency has evolved as a global asset class with significant implications for modern investment portfolios. Despite undeniable growth, crypto remains volatile, posing challenges for even seasoned investors. An increasingly popular solution to navigating these risks is crypto index investing. Crypto index funds are products that bundle multiple cryptocurrencies into a single vehicle, offering a diversified, systematic approach to gaining exposure to the digital asset market while mitigating some of its inherent risks.

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The value of crypto index investing

Increasing popularity among institutional investors

An increasing number of institutional investors are looking for ways to participate in crypto without taking on unnecessary risk. Index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that focus on digital assets have emerged as a compelling option. We’ve experienced this trend as well with 30% of our retail and institutional clients opting to diversify their portfolios through a crypto index bundle.

Tailoring the index to investor goals

Crypto index funds have the ability to tailor exposure based on specific investment goals and risk tolerance. Some indexes focus exclusively on large-cap cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ether, providing a stable base of well-established assets. Others may prioritize high-growth sectors like decentralized finance or newer blockchain protocols, offering higher potential upside alongside increased risk.

Selecting the right index strategy depends on a detailed understanding of the underlying assets and market dynamics. Diversified exposure can enhance the risk-adjusted return profile of a portfolio, but the nuances of index composition should align with an investor’s broader strategy.

Index investing offers a strategic, risk-managed approach for professional investors looking to capitalize on the crypto market’s growth. By offering diversified exposure, reducing operational complexity, and providing a controlled entry into the crypto ecosystem, index funds and ETFs are becoming valuable tools for those navigating the digital asset landscape.

Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.