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Binance Founder Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao Could be Released on Friday

A Federal Bureau of Prisons rule states that an inmate whose release date falls on a Saturday, Sunday, or legal holiday, may be released on the last preceding weekday.

Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, could be released on Friday, two days ahead of his scheduled release date of September 29th (Sunday), according to an interpretation of the law.

The U.S. Department of Justice’s Federal Bureau of Prisons rule states that “The Bureau of Prisons may release an inmate whose release date falls on a Saturday, Sunday, or legal holiday, on the last preceding weekday unless it is necessary to detain the inmate for another jurisdiction seeking custody under a detainer, or for any other reason which might indicate that the inmate should not be released until the inmate’s scheduled release date.”

The decision may depend on the discretionary authority given to Wardens. The Bureau of Prisons did not immediately respond to a request for clarification and comment sent outside of office hours from CoinDesk.

CZ was sentenced to four months in prison in April after pleading guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act by failing to set up an adequate know-your-customer (KYC) program at Binance.

If released on Friday, CZ would have spent 116 days in prison. He spent three months at a low-security prison, Lompoc II, on California’s central coast before being moved to a halfway house in San Pedro, California in late August.

“We are delighted that CZ will be home with his family. While he is not managing or operating Binance, we are excited to see what he does next,” a Binance spokesperson said. “Since last year, Binance has continued to thrive under the leadership of our current team, surpassing 230 million users globally.”

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Bitcoin’s ‘Outside Day’ Sets Stage for $70K, Altcoins Break Out: Technical Analysis

Thursday’s bullish trading range marks an end of the recent consolidation and a resumption of the rebound from lows under $53,000.

Earlier this week, analysts at the Bitfinex crypto exchange said August’s $65,200 high is the level to beat for bitcoin (BTC) bulls.

The breakout happened Thursday and how. Bitcoin jumped over 3%, the most in nine days, to the highest since July 31 with a wider trading range than Tuesday, according to charting platform TradingView.

In other words, the cryptocurrency formed a bullish “outside day” pattern, signaling an end of the recent consolidation below $65,000 and a resumption of the rally from lows under $53,000.

“The outside day can form midway in a price trend, just like flags and pennants. Since outside days act as continuation patterns, expect the breakout to be in the same direction as the inbound price trend,” investor and technical analysis expert Thomas N. Bulkowski wrote in his book “Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.”

The breakout flipped the August high into a support level, shifting focus to the next resistance closer to $70,000. The resistance is identified by the trendline connecting highs registered in March and June.

Bitcoin has gained almost 1% so far on Friday, close to $66,000, validating the bullish breakout. The positive bias would be invalidated if prices fell below Thursday’s low of $62,805.

Altcoin breakout

While bitcoin is still stuck in a broad descending channel, the cumulative market capitalization of alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins), or tokens other than market leaders bitcoin and ether, has broken out of a six-month corrective trend.

The breakout points to a potential “alt season” ahead, a period characterized by smaller tokens outperforming BTC and ETH.

BlackRock Highlights Bitcoin’s Unique Properties, Believes BTC is Risk-Off in the Long Term

BlackRock’s latest report shows that bitcoin has a very low correlation to U.S. equities on a trailing six-month basis.

BlackRock released a report last week, titled “bitcoin as a unique diversifier.”

The investment giant identified four key points from the report. First, how to analyze bitcoin (BTC) in relation to traditional financial assets due to its fundamental properties, such as not having a quarterly earnings report or a CEO.

Second, bitcoin’s high volatility can be perceived as a “risky” asset, which contributes to the discussion that whether it is a “risk-on” or “risk-off” asset. The token could be considered a flight-to-safety option because it is scarce, non-sovereign, and decentralized. Lastly, BlackRock pointed out that the long-term adoption of bitcoin may come from global instability.

Bitcoin’s realized volatility trends downwards

Bitcoin’s realized volatility continues to trend downwards over time, indicating increased stability. In the early years of bitcoin, its realized volatility used to trade over 200%; however, as the asset matured, so did the volatility.

Since 2018, realized volatility has not exceeded 100% and is currently at 50%. As realized volatility decreases and liquidity increases through financial instruments such as the spot and futures market, this may bring in more sophisticated investors such as options traders. This seems to be on the horizon with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of physically settled options tied to BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF.

Risk-on or risk-off?

BlackRock also asked the question: Is bitcoin risk-on or risk-off? While short-term trading may suggest that bitcoin behaves like a risk-on asset, the data reveals a different narrative over a longer time horizon.

According to data from bitcoin custody service Unchained, “almost all holders (99%+) are in profit if they held for just three years. All bitcoin holders in this class are in profit if they held for at least 5 years”.

We can see this type of mentality on-chain among investors, where over 65% of the circulating bitcoin supply has remained unmoved for more than one year, according to Glassnode. This trend suggests that many investors tend to hold bitcoin because they believe in its store-of-value narrative and view it as a risk-off asset, even though bitcoin has faced multiple 20% corrections in 2024.

Low historical correlation with U.S equities

BlackRock also showed that bitcoin has a very low correlation to U.S. equities. A graph shows the trailing 6-month S&P 500 correlation with bitcoin; the average correlation is 0.2 since 2015. Sometimes, assets will trade near one-to-one with one another due to external macro factors, most likely in risk-off or liquidity events.

The report notes, “These episodes have been short-term in nature and have failed to produce a clear long-term statistically significant correlation relationship.”

Bitcoin outperforms other risk-on assets after major events

Continuing with the theme of having a long-term time preference, BlackRock noted that bitcoin tends to outperform other risk-on assets after 60 days following a major geopolitical event.

The U.S.- Iran escalation in 2020 saw bitcoin return 20% after 60 days, outperforming gold and S&P 500. This was also the case for Covid-19, the 2020 U.S. election challenges, the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. regional banking crisis, and most recently, the Yen Carry trade unwind on Aug. 5.

During the recent Yen carry trade unwind on Aug. 5, which was now 53 days ago, major assets experienced declines on the day. However, bitcoin has risen by 22% since then, with gold and the S&P 500 up roughly 11%.

First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Nears $66K After Monster ETF Day

The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Sept. 27, 2024.

This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.

Latest Prices

CoinDesk 20 Index: 2,090.20 +1.76%
Bitcoin (BTC): $65,567.06 +1.8%
Ether (ETH): $2,649.73 +0.83%
S&P 500: 5,745.37 +0.4%
Gold: $2,666.73 -0.22%
Nikkei 225: 39,829.56 +2.32%

Top Stories

Bitcoin closed in on a return to $66,000, climbing to its highest point since the start of August. BTC rose to over $65,900 during mid-morning in Europe, an increase of over 3% in the previous 24 hours. Bitcoin then retreated to trade just above $65,500. Spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. enjoyed a monster day on Thursday, registering inflows of $365 million and bringing the weekly total to over $600 million. The broader digital asset market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index, is also higher by around 1.8%, with dogecoin leading the gains. DOGE jumped around 9% to nearly $0.125 amid a surge in memecoin prices.

China’s plans for a huge stimulus package lit a fire under memecoins, with both SHIB and FLOKI registering double-digit gains. Memecoin prices tend to respond positively to liquidity injections because the increased availability of cash nurtures a greater appetite for risk among traders. Memecoins are community-driven and jump when the market displays risk-on behavior. “Leading the gains are the SOL and BTC ecosystems, indicating a strong focus on meme coins as overall liquidity grows. While not nearly as explosive as meme coins on the aforementioned chains, meme coins on Ethereum, such as $PEPE and $SHIB, are also experiencing heightened interest from the market,” HashKey OTC CEO Li Liang said.

TIA, the token of data-availability network Celestia, posted its best monthly gain this year, confounding traders who’d positioned for a drop in the price as the result of a $1.13 billion token unlock due next month. September’s market-beating 40% surge takes place against a background of some market participants seeking downside hedges due to concerns the token unlock due Oct. 31, equivalent to 16% of its total supply, will flood the market and depress prices. However, the bias for shorts, likely stemming from the hedging activity, might have led to a short squeeze, contributing to the TIA rally. “Traders tried to sell ahead of the [unlock] event from Julyish. I’d argue the squeeze has already happened,” Jake Ostovskis, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, told CoinDesk.

Chart of the Day

– Omkar Godbole

Bitcoin Prices Show Positive 30-Day Correlation With China’s Central Bank Balance Sheet

“The new inflow of cash could indirectly push up the price of bitcoin, particularly in the long term perspective,” one analyst said.

Bitcoin (BTC) prices seem to have tracked the growth in the Chinese central bank’s balance sheet over the past eight years, maintaining a notable positive 30-day correlation.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), holds roughly $6.22 trillion worth of U.S. dollars on its balance sheet. At press time, the 30-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin’s price and the PBOC’s balance sheet size was 0.66, according to data source TradingView. Its always been positive except 2016 and from late 2022 to 2023. On the other hand, as of writing, bitcoin had a -0.88 correlation over 30 days with the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, the lowest on record since 2016.

A strong correlation means a co-efficient of 0.6-0.9, and 0.8-1 is considered a very strong correlation. Correlations are a statistical measure of how two variables are related and can be used in financial markets to predict or track asset prices.

The positive correlation is noteworthy as early this week, the PBOC said it was considering injecting up to 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) of capital into its biggest state banks to increase their capacity to support the struggling economy.

The central bank also cut the reserve requirement ratio for mainland banks by 50 basis points (bps) while lowering the seven-day reverse repo rate – the interest rate at which a central bank borrows funds from commercial banks – by 20 bps to 1.5%.

BTC has gained nearly 3% this week and is up over 10% for the month, according to CoinDesk data. Asian stocks led by China have also surged in the wake of PBOC’s stimulus bazooka. The CSI 300 Index of large-cap shares soared 4.5% on Friday, bringing this week’s gain to 16% in the biggest run since 2008.

Like the U.S., China’s stimulus aims to lower unemployment and spur business growth. The new inflow of cash could indirectly push up the price of Bitcoin, particularly from a long-term perspective, market analyst Nick Ruck told CoinDesk in a Telegram message on Friday.

“The stimulus could lead to increased investment in blockchain companies that may include mining technology and startups,” Ruck said. “Select funds may also be able to increase exposure to crypto-related investments offshore, such as in stock-listed firms and ETFs in Hong Kong.”

The bump won’t be limited to bitcoin, some say, as all riskier assets are expected to get a boost in the coming months.

“It’s all the green light for global risk markets as U.S. equities hit new ATHs for the 3rd time this week, helped by a rapid-fire of furious stimulus to resuscitate the long-struggling Chinese economy,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk. “This has led macro observers to turn explicitly bullish on all risk assets in the interim, with a seemingly globally synchronized easing move that was reminiscent of the easy-money days from the QE era.”

“Naturally, crypto prices are still highly correlated to equity performance. However, investor sentiment seems to have flipped to a ‘buy the dip’ mode, and risk-reward favors a continued rally with no or little downside catalysts in sight,” Fan added.

Fantasy Sports Company Sorare Charged With Providing Unlicensed Gambling Facilities in U.K.

Sorare was charged with violating the Gambling Act 2005 in the regulator’s first move against a blockchain-based platform.

Sorare, a fantasy sports company, was charged with providing unlicensed gambling facilities in the U.K. in the Gambling Commission’s first action against a blockchain-based platform.

The company, based in Saint-Mande, France, operates fantasy soccer, basketball and baseball games that allow participants to buy and sell collectible cards using non-fungible tokens (NFTs). It has inked deals with the English Premier League and Germany’s Bundesliga, among other national sporting associations. NFTs are unique digital tokens used to represent assets.

“Sorare is charged with providing facilities for gambling without holding an operating licence,” the commission said on its website. The company will have to appear on Oct. 4 in Birmingham Magistrates’ Court.

The charges follow an almost three-year inquiry by the regulator. In 2021 the commission said it was looking into whether Sorare needed a gambling license. The case is the first time it has clamped down on the use of a blockchain-based platform and the outcome could set a precedent for how regulators handle Web3 firms in the future.

It is also another sign suggesting U.K. regulators are taking more enforcement action against suspected illicit activity in the crypto space following a swoop on unregulated crypto ATM’s.

“We firmly deny any claims that Sorare is a gambling product under U.K. laws,” a Sorare spokesperson said. “The Commission has misunderstood our business and wrongly determined that gambling laws apply to Sorare.”

Bitcoin FOMO is Back: 10X Research’s Markus Thielen

A $10 billion surge in stablecoin minting over the past weeks has flooded the crypto market with liquidity, Thielen noted.

Impressive gains since the U.S. Federal Reserve’s mid-September rate cut have pushed bitcoin (BTC) out of its downtrend and the crypto is now targeting $70,000 and then new record highs, according to a new research report.

“Are you holding enough bitcoin and altcoins to ride the new wave,” is the subtitle of 10X Research’s Markus Thielen’s latest analysis. “With bitcoin breaking above $65,000, we anticipate a swift move toward $70,000, followed by new all-time highs in the near term.”

Thielen took note of a sharp increase in stablecoin minting following the Fed’s July meeting, at which it left rates unchanged but indicated a September easing was likely. Nearly $10 billion in stablecoin minting ensued in the subsequent weeks, said Thielen, flooding the crypto markets with liquidity and sharply surpassing spot ETF flows.

Of particular interest, said Thielen, Circle’s USDC accounted for 40% of recent stablecoin inflows, a far higher share versus Tether’s USDT than is typical. It’s important, he said, as while USDT minting on TRON is typically associated with capital preservation, USDC minting could indicate a rise in DeFi activity.

Noting that 55% of currently mined bitcoins are coming from Chinese mining pools, Thielen said that country’s massive monetary and fiscal stimulus measures – announced just after the Fed rate cut – could trigger large capital outflows from China and into cryptos.

“The likelihood of a Q4 rally is exceptionally high, with gains likely front-loaded,” Thielen concluded. “A major surge could be on the horizon, sparking even more FOMO across the crypto space.”

Bitcoin currently is higher by 2.3% over the past 24 hours and nearly 12% month-over-month to $66,300, its highest level since late July.

MicroStrategy 2X Leveraged ETF Sees Massive Inflows In First Week Of Trading As MSTR Outperforms Bitcoin

The T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) took in $72 million in the first week of trading, according to data by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Seven days after hitting the market, the T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) has become one of the most successful new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the market after attracting over $72 million.

The fund, issued by REX Shares and Tuttle Capital Management, promises two times the daily performance to the stock of MicroStrategy (MSTR), the software mogul turned bitcoin strategy company, the most leverage any fund tied to MSTR gives.

A similar fund, the Defiance Daily Target 1.75X Long MicroStrategy ETF (MSTX), promises traders returns of 175% of the daily percentage change in the share price of MSTR. MSTX went live on Aug. 15 and has so far taken in roughly $857 million, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, putting it in the top 8% of launches this year.

“Both have robust liquidity,” Balchunas said in a post on X. “I didn’t think there was room for both (esp so quickly), it just [shows] how much ‘need for speed’ there is out there.”

MicroStrategy has been an attractive investment for traders looking to gain exposure to bitcoin (BTC) without directly investing in the digital asset, as shares of the company are highly correlated with the token due to MicroStrategy’s holding 252,220 BTC.

MicroStrategy outperforms bitcoin and tech in current market rally

Bitcoin’s price has just exceeded $66,000 for the first time since July 31. At that time, MicroStrategy was priced at $168; it is now trading at almost $178, $10 a share higher. As MicroStrategy is trading higher while bitcoin effectively has been flat since then, this shows that MicroStrategy is leading the current rally.

Another development can be seen with the divergence between MicroStrategy and NVIDIA (NVDA). Both assets were in lockstep for the past month, but since Sept. 19, MicroStrategy has gone on from strength to strength while NVIDIA has flatlined. This shows that tech is not the primary driver in this rally.

Mango Markets Agrees to Destroy MNGO Tokens in SEC Settlement

Mango DAO, Mango Labs and Blockworks Foundation agreed to settle charges with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Friday.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) settled charges with Mango DAO, Mango Labs LLC and Blockworks Foundation alleging that the MNGO token was an unregistered security and that the latter entities offered unregistered broker services.

The entities will destroy their MNGO tokens and ask crypto exchanges to stop trading the tokens, as well as pay $700,000 total as part of the settlement, which is still subject to a court’s approval, the SEC announced Friday in a press release. The settlement comes just over a month after Mango DAO held an open vote on whether it should adopt the settlement offer proposal. The DAO voted on a settlement proposal with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) earlier this week as well, which passed unanimously.

Mango DAO members vote on proposals through the MNGO governance token. It’s unclear what the project’s future will look like without the token. The SEC’s press release noted that Mango DAO and Blockworks Foundation (no relation to the news and events business) sold $70 million worth of MNGO tokens starting in August 2021.

As part of the settlement, Mango DAO, Blockworks Foundation and Mango Labs are neither admitting nor denying the charges.

In a statement, SEC Acting Crypto and Cyber Unit Chief Jorge Tenreiro said any entity that offers “securities-intermediary functions” needs to register or otherwise be exempt from registration with the SEC.

“Since the inception of our crypto enforcement program, our view has been that the label ‘DAO’ does not change the reality of who is behind a project, what activities they engage in, or whether their activities need to be registered. Nor does engaging in intermediation of securities with the aid of automated or open source software change the nature of such activities,” he said in the statement.

Last year, Mango Markets – which has struggled to recover since Avraham Eisenberg drained more than $110 million worth of tokens from the exchange in 2022 – tried relaunching the decentralized trading venue. Eisenberg was convicted of fraud and market manipulation tied to his actions around Mango earlier this year, though his sentencing has been pushed to Dec. 12, 2024.

Binance Founder Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao Is a Free Man

Zhao, who has been in a halfway house since late August, was released on Friday.

Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao has been released from prison, according to the U.S. Bureau of Prisons (BOP).

Zhao’s release comes two days ahead of his scheduled release date this Sunday, Sep. 29. The BOP is legally allowed to release prisoners early if their release date falls on a weekend or holiday.

In April, Zhao was sentenced to four months in prison for violating the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) by failing to set up an adequate know-your-customer (KYC) program at Binance. As part of his guilty plea, Zhao also agreed to pay a $50 million fine and step down as CEO of the crypto exchange. The exchange agreed to pay a $4.3 million fine to various U.S. regulators to settle related charges.

Though custodial sentences for violations of the BSA are unusual (former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, who pleaded guilty to similar charges in 2022 was sentenced only to probation), Zhao’s four-month sentence was lenient compared to the three years sought by federal prosecutors.

The judge overseeing Zhao’s case, U.S. District Judge Richard Jones of the Western District of Washington, seemed to be swayed by Zhao’s squeaky-clean criminal record and positive reputation – aided by 161 letters of support from his friends, family, and colleagues.

Zhao – formerly known as Inmate #88087-510 – served three months in a low-security prison, Lompoc II, on California’s central coast. In August, he was moved to a halfway house in San Pedro, California.

At an estimated net worth of $25.3 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires’ Index, he is believed to be the richest person to ever go to prison in the U.S.

A spokesperson for Zhao declined to comment when reached by CoinDesk.